Articles | Volume 14, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 Jul 2020
Research article |
| 31 Jul 2020
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
Lawrence Mudryk
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada,
Toronto, M3H 5T4, Canada
María Santolaria-Otín
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IGE, 38000, Grenoble, France
Gerhard Krinner
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IGE, 38000, Grenoble, France
Martin Ménégoz
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IGE, 38000, Grenoble, France
Chris Derksen
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada,
Toronto, M3H 5T4, Canada
Claire Brutel-Vuilmet
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IGE, 38000, Grenoble, France
Mike Brady
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada,
Toronto, M3H 5T4, Canada
Richard Essery
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, UK
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- Fractional snow-covered area: scale-independent peak of winter parameterization N. Helbig et al. 10.5194/tc-15-615-2021
- Attribution of Snowpack Errors to Simulated Temperature and Precipitation in E3SMv1 Over the Contiguous United States M. Brunke et al. 10.1029/2021MS002640
- Leaf area index in Earth system models: how the key variable of vegetation seasonality works in climate projections H. Park & S. Jeong 10.1088/1748-9326/abe2cf
- A seasonal algorithm of the snow-covered area fraction for mountainous terrain N. Helbig et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4607-2021
- Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America E. Cho et al. 10.1029/2021GL094985
- Variability and Changes of Unfrozen Soils Below Snowpack L. Gao et al. 10.1029/2021GL095354
- Historical and projected climate change over three major river basins in China from Fifth and Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models X. Zhu et al. 10.1002/joc.7206
- Historical Trends and Projections of Snow Cover over the High Arctic: A Review H. Mohammadzadeh Khani et al. 10.3390/w14040587
- Assessment and projection of elevation-dependent warming over the Tibetan Plateau by CMIP6 models L. Zhu & G. Fan 10.1007/s00704-021-03889-2
- Declining North American snow cover ablation frequency Z. Suriano et al. 10.1002/joc.7125
- Projections of North American snow from NA-CORDEX and their uncertainties, with a focus on model resolution R. McCrary et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03294-8
- Machine learning analyses of remote sensing measurements establish strong relationships between vegetation and snow depth in the boreal forest of Interior Alaska T. Douglas & C. Zhang 10.1088/1748-9326/ac04d8
- Snow Depth Trends from CMIP6 Models Conflict with Observational Evidence X. Zhong et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0177.1
- Multiple Indicators of Extreme Changes in Snow-Dominated Streamflow Regimes, Yakima River Basin Region, USA A. Wagner et al. 10.3390/w13192608
- Distribution and Attribution of Terrestrial Snow Cover Phenology Changes over the Northern Hemisphere during 2001–2020 X. Chen et al. 10.3390/rs13091843
- Climatic Controls on Mean and Extreme Streamflow Changes Across the Permafrost Region of Canada R. Shrestha et al. 10.3390/w13050626
- Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet M. Donat-Magnin et al. 10.5194/tc-15-571-2021
- Effect of Forest Canopy Structure on Wintertime Land Surface Albedo: Evaluating CLM5 Simulations With In‐Situ Measurements J. Malle et al. 10.1029/2020JD034118
- Extreme climate changes over three major river basins in China as seen in CMIP5 and CMIP6 X. Zhu et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05767-z
- Snow cover loss compounding the future economic vulnerability of western China X. Wu et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143025
- Improved Simulation of Arctic Circumpolar Land Area Snow Properties and Soil Temperatures A. Royer et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.685140
- Climate change in the High Mountain Asia in CMIP6 M. Lalande et al. 10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021
- Scientific and Human Errors in a Snow Model Intercomparison C. Menard et al. 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0329.1
- Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities M. Williamson et al. 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004
- Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming L. Quante et al. 10.1038/s41598-021-95979-4
- New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected M. McCrystall et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-27031-y
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A Revised Snow Cover Algorithm to Improve Discrimination between Snow and Clouds: A Case Study in Gran Paradiso National Park C. Richiardi et al. 10.3390/rs13101957
- Snow cover duration trends observed at sites and predicted by multiple models R. Essery et al. 10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020
- Fractional snow-covered area: scale-independent peak of winter parameterization N. Helbig et al. 10.5194/tc-15-615-2021
- Attribution of Snowpack Errors to Simulated Temperature and Precipitation in E3SMv1 Over the Contiguous United States M. Brunke et al. 10.1029/2021MS002640
- Leaf area index in Earth system models: how the key variable of vegetation seasonality works in climate projections H. Park & S. Jeong 10.1088/1748-9326/abe2cf
- A seasonal algorithm of the snow-covered area fraction for mountainous terrain N. Helbig et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4607-2021
- Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America E. Cho et al. 10.1029/2021GL094985
- Variability and Changes of Unfrozen Soils Below Snowpack L. Gao et al. 10.1029/2021GL095354
- Historical and projected climate change over three major river basins in China from Fifth and Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models X. Zhu et al. 10.1002/joc.7206
- Historical Trends and Projections of Snow Cover over the High Arctic: A Review H. Mohammadzadeh Khani et al. 10.3390/w14040587
- Assessment and projection of elevation-dependent warming over the Tibetan Plateau by CMIP6 models L. Zhu & G. Fan 10.1007/s00704-021-03889-2
- Declining North American snow cover ablation frequency Z. Suriano et al. 10.1002/joc.7125
- Projections of North American snow from NA-CORDEX and their uncertainties, with a focus on model resolution R. McCrary et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03294-8
- Machine learning analyses of remote sensing measurements establish strong relationships between vegetation and snow depth in the boreal forest of Interior Alaska T. Douglas & C. Zhang 10.1088/1748-9326/ac04d8
- Snow Depth Trends from CMIP6 Models Conflict with Observational Evidence X. Zhong et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0177.1
- Multiple Indicators of Extreme Changes in Snow-Dominated Streamflow Regimes, Yakima River Basin Region, USA A. Wagner et al. 10.3390/w13192608
- Distribution and Attribution of Terrestrial Snow Cover Phenology Changes over the Northern Hemisphere during 2001–2020 X. Chen et al. 10.3390/rs13091843
- Climatic Controls on Mean and Extreme Streamflow Changes Across the Permafrost Region of Canada R. Shrestha et al. 10.3390/w13050626
- Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet M. Donat-Magnin et al. 10.5194/tc-15-571-2021
- Effect of Forest Canopy Structure on Wintertime Land Surface Albedo: Evaluating CLM5 Simulations With In‐Situ Measurements J. Malle et al. 10.1029/2020JD034118
- Extreme climate changes over three major river basins in China as seen in CMIP5 and CMIP6 X. Zhu et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05767-z
- Snow cover loss compounding the future economic vulnerability of western China X. Wu et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143025
- Improved Simulation of Arctic Circumpolar Land Area Snow Properties and Soil Temperatures A. Royer et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.685140
- Climate change in the High Mountain Asia in CMIP6 M. Lalande et al. 10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021
- Scientific and Human Errors in a Snow Model Intercomparison C. Menard et al. 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0329.1
- Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities M. Williamson et al. 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 30 Mar 2023
Short summary
We analyze how well updated state-of-the-art climate models reproduce observed historical snow cover extent and snow mass and how they project that these quantities will change up to the year 2100. Overall the updated models better represent historical snow extent than previous models, and they simulate stronger historical trends in snow extent and snow mass. They project that spring snow extent will decrease by 8 % for each degree Celsius that the global surface air temperature increases.
We analyze how well updated state-of-the-art climate models reproduce observed historical snow...
