Articles | Volume 12, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Nov 2018
Research article |
| 12 Nov 2018
| 12 Nov 2018
Exploration of Antarctic Ice Sheet 100-year contribution to sea level rise and associated model uncertainties using the ISSM framework
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Helene Seroussi
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Michael P. Schodlok
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Eric Y. Larour
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Carmen Boening
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Daniel Limonadi
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Michael M. Watkins
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Mathieu Morlighem
University of California, Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, USA
Michiel R. van den Broeke
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Cited
52 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Understanding of Contemporary Regional Sea‐Level Change and the Implications for the Future B. Hamlington et al. 10.1029/2019RG000672
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- Antarctic calving loss rivals ice-shelf thinning C. Greene et al. 10.1038/s41586-022-05037-w
- Long‐term projections of sea‐level rise from ice sheets N. Golledge 10.1002/wcc.634
- Ice mass loss sensitivity to the Antarctic ice sheet basal thermal state E. Dawson et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-32632-2
- Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
- The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet C. Wirths et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024
- Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2) A. Levermann et al. 10.5194/esd-11-35-2020
- Mechanics and dynamics of pinning points on the Shirase Coast, West Antarctica H. Still & C. Hulbe 10.5194/tc-15-2647-2021
- Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 A. Alevropoulos-Borrill et al. 10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020
- Investigation of ice shelf ocean interaction in the Amundsen Sea using numerical modeling and ocean state estimates Y. Nakayama 10.5928/kaiyou.29.6_233
- Automatic Detection of Subglacial Water Bodies in the AGAP Region, East Antarctica, Based on Short-Time Fourier Transform T. Hao et al. 10.3390/rs15020363
- The Impact of Variable Ocean Temperatures on Totten Glacier Stability and Discharge F. McCormack et al. 10.1029/2020GL091790
- Mapping high-resolution basal topography of West Antarctica from radar data using non-stationary multiple-point geostatistics (MPS-BedMappingV1) Z. Yin et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1477-2022
- Supraglacial lake bathymetry automatically derived from ICESat-2 constraining lake depth estimates from multi-source satellite imagery R. Datta & B. Wouters 10.5194/tc-15-5115-2021
- Quantifying the Impact of Bedrock Topography Uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier Projections for This Century A. Wernecke et al. 10.1029/2021GL096589
- initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6 H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019
- Highly variable friction and slip observed at Antarctic ice stream bed T. Hudson et al. 10.1038/s41561-023-01204-4
- Risk of Environmental Management in Countries of African Union S. Kuzmin & D. Uvarova 10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-2-54-85
- Sensitivity of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to Geothermal Heat S. Smith‐Johnsen et al. 10.1029/2019JF005252
- Variational inference of ice shelf rheology with physics-informed machine learning B. Riel & B. Minchew 10.1017/jog.2023.8
- The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century A. Quiquet & C. Dumas 10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021
- Inferring the Basal Friction Law From Long Term Changes of Glacier Length, Thickness and Velocity on an Alpine Glacier A. Gilbert et al. 10.1029/2023GL104503
- Parameter sensitivity analysis of dynamic ice sheet models – numerical computations G. Cheng & P. Lötstedt 10.5194/tc-14-673-2020
- Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise A. Robel et al. 10.1073/pnas.1904822116
- Implementation of a Gaussian Markov random field sampler for forward uncertainty quantification in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model v4.19 K. Bulthuis & E. Larour 10.5194/gmd-15-1195-2022
- ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
- Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y
- A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet B. Lee et al. 10.1214/19-AOAS1305
- Modeling the Greenland Ice Sheet's Committed Contribution to Sea Level During the 21st Century I. Nias et al. 10.1029/2022JF006914
- ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model J. O'Neill et al. 10.5194/tc-19-541-2025
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- Spatial probabilistic calibration of a high-resolution Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model with satellite altimeter data A. Wernecke et al. 10.5194/tc-14-1459-2020
- Assessing Uncertainty in the Dynamical Ice Response to Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica I. Nias et al. 10.1029/2019GL084941
- ISSM-SLPS: geodetically compliant Sea-Level Projection System for the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model v4.17 E. Larour et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-4925-2020
- Communicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users R. Kopp et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01691-8
- Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change K. Bulthuis et al. 10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
- Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level A. Aschwanden et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021
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- Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections G. Le Cozannet et al. 10.3390/w11071507
- Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica E. Hill et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021
- Investigating the dynamics and interactions of surface features on Pine Island Glacier using remote sensing and deep learning Q. Zhu et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.011
- An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change J. Jakeman et al. 10.5194/esd-16-513-2025
- Viscous Effects in the Solid Earth Response to Modern Antarctic Ice Mass Flux: Implications for Geodetic Studies of WAIS Stability in a Warming World E. Powell et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0479.1
- Development and Benchmarking of the Shallow Shelf Approximation Ice Sheet Dynamics Module Y. Baek et al. 10.1007/s12601-023-00120-3
- Impact of boundary conditions on the modeled thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet I. Park et al. 10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024
- Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation E. Jager et al. 10.1017/jog.2024.10
- The Stochastic Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System Model v1.0 (StISSM v1.0) V. Verjans et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022
52 citations as recorded by crossref.
- On the Multiscale Oceanic Heat Transports Toward the Bases of the Antarctic Ice Shelves Z. Wang et al. 10.34133/olar.0010
- Understanding of Contemporary Regional Sea‐Level Change and the Implications for the Future B. Hamlington et al. 10.1029/2019RG000672
- Assessing the potential for ice flow piracy between the Totten and Vanderford glaciers, East Antarctica F. McCormack et al. 10.5194/tc-17-4549-2023
- Modelling GNSS-observed seasonal velocity changes of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) F. Baldacchino et al. 10.5194/tc-19-107-2025
- Antarctic calving loss rivals ice-shelf thinning C. Greene et al. 10.1038/s41586-022-05037-w
- Long‐term projections of sea‐level rise from ice sheets N. Golledge 10.1002/wcc.634
- Ice mass loss sensitivity to the Antarctic ice sheet basal thermal state E. Dawson et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-32632-2
- Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
- The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet C. Wirths et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024
- Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2) A. Levermann et al. 10.5194/esd-11-35-2020
- Mechanics and dynamics of pinning points on the Shirase Coast, West Antarctica H. Still & C. Hulbe 10.5194/tc-15-2647-2021
- Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 A. Alevropoulos-Borrill et al. 10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020
- Investigation of ice shelf ocean interaction in the Amundsen Sea using numerical modeling and ocean state estimates Y. Nakayama 10.5928/kaiyou.29.6_233
- Automatic Detection of Subglacial Water Bodies in the AGAP Region, East Antarctica, Based on Short-Time Fourier Transform T. Hao et al. 10.3390/rs15020363
- The Impact of Variable Ocean Temperatures on Totten Glacier Stability and Discharge F. McCormack et al. 10.1029/2020GL091790
- Mapping high-resolution basal topography of West Antarctica from radar data using non-stationary multiple-point geostatistics (MPS-BedMappingV1) Z. Yin et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1477-2022
- Supraglacial lake bathymetry automatically derived from ICESat-2 constraining lake depth estimates from multi-source satellite imagery R. Datta & B. Wouters 10.5194/tc-15-5115-2021
- Quantifying the Impact of Bedrock Topography Uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier Projections for This Century A. Wernecke et al. 10.1029/2021GL096589
- initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6 H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019
- Highly variable friction and slip observed at Antarctic ice stream bed T. Hudson et al. 10.1038/s41561-023-01204-4
- Risk of Environmental Management in Countries of African Union S. Kuzmin & D. Uvarova 10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-2-54-85
- Sensitivity of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to Geothermal Heat S. Smith‐Johnsen et al. 10.1029/2019JF005252
- Variational inference of ice shelf rheology with physics-informed machine learning B. Riel & B. Minchew 10.1017/jog.2023.8
- The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century A. Quiquet & C. Dumas 10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021
- Inferring the Basal Friction Law From Long Term Changes of Glacier Length, Thickness and Velocity on an Alpine Glacier A. Gilbert et al. 10.1029/2023GL104503
- Parameter sensitivity analysis of dynamic ice sheet models – numerical computations G. Cheng & P. Lötstedt 10.5194/tc-14-673-2020
- Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise A. Robel et al. 10.1073/pnas.1904822116
- Implementation of a Gaussian Markov random field sampler for forward uncertainty quantification in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model v4.19 K. Bulthuis & E. Larour 10.5194/gmd-15-1195-2022
- ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
- Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y
- A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet B. Lee et al. 10.1214/19-AOAS1305
- Modeling the Greenland Ice Sheet's Committed Contribution to Sea Level During the 21st Century I. Nias et al. 10.1029/2022JF006914
- ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model J. O'Neill et al. 10.5194/tc-19-541-2025
- Derivation of bedrock topography measurement requirements for the reduction of uncertainty in ice-sheet model projections of Thwaites Glacier B. Castleman et al. 10.5194/tc-16-761-2022
- Quantification of Surface Forcing Requirements for a Greenland Ice Sheet Model Using Uncertainty Analyses N. Schlegel & E. Larour 10.1029/2019GL083532
- Spatial probabilistic calibration of a high-resolution Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model with satellite altimeter data A. Wernecke et al. 10.5194/tc-14-1459-2020
- Assessing Uncertainty in the Dynamical Ice Response to Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica I. Nias et al. 10.1029/2019GL084941
- ISSM-SLPS: geodetically compliant Sea-Level Projection System for the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model v4.17 E. Larour et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-4925-2020
- Communicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users R. Kopp et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01691-8
- Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change K. Bulthuis et al. 10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
- Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level A. Aschwanden et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021
- Surface Mass Balance Models Vs. Stake Observations: A Comparison in the Lake Vostok Region, Central East Antarctica A. Richter et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.669977
- How well can satellite altimetry and firn models resolve Antarctic firn thickness variations? M. Kappelsberger et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024
- Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections G. Le Cozannet et al. 10.3390/w11071507
- Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica E. Hill et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021
- Investigating the dynamics and interactions of surface features on Pine Island Glacier using remote sensing and deep learning Q. Zhu et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.011
- An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change J. Jakeman et al. 10.5194/esd-16-513-2025
- Viscous Effects in the Solid Earth Response to Modern Antarctic Ice Mass Flux: Implications for Geodetic Studies of WAIS Stability in a Warming World E. Powell et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0479.1
- Development and Benchmarking of the Shallow Shelf Approximation Ice Sheet Dynamics Module Y. Baek et al. 10.1007/s12601-023-00120-3
- Impact of boundary conditions on the modeled thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet I. Park et al. 10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024
- Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation E. Jager et al. 10.1017/jog.2024.10
- The Stochastic Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System Model v1.0 (StISSM v1.0) V. Verjans et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022
Latest update: 19 Apr 2025
Short summary
Using NASA supercomputers and a novel framework, in which Sandia National Laboratories' statistical software is embedded in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's ice sheet model, we run a range of 100-year warming scenarios for Antarctica. We find that 1.2 m of sea level contribution is achievable, but not likely. Also, we find that bedrock topography beneath the ice drives potential for regional sea level contribution, highlighting the need for accurate bedrock mapping of the ice sheet interior.
Using NASA supercomputers and a novel framework, in which Sandia National Laboratories'...
