The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 12, issue 7
Articles | Volume 12, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 12, issue 7
Research article
 | 
06 Jul 2018
Research article |  | 06 Jul 2018

Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection

Jonathan D. Mackay, Nicholas E. Barrand, David M. Hannah, Stefan Krause, Christopher R. Jackson, Jez Everest, and Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir

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Short summary
We apply a framework to compare and objectively accept or reject competing melt and run-off process models. We found no acceptable models. Furthermore, increasing model complexity does not guarantee better predictions. The results highlight model selection uncertainty and the need for rigorous frameworks to identify deficiencies in competing models. The application of this approach in the future will help to better quantify model prediction uncertainty and develop improved process models.
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