Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-341-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-341-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
A. L. Atchley
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
S. L. Painter
Climate Change Science Institute, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
E. T. Coon
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
C. J. Wilson
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
V. E. Romanovsky
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA
J. C. Rowland
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
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Cited
46 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluating integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in ATS (v0.88) against observations from a polygonal tundra site A. Jan et al.
- Evaluation of Parameterization Schemes for Matric Potential in Frozen Soil in Land Surface Models: A Modeling Perspective Y. Zhao et al.
- Importance of Parameter and Climate Data Uncertainty for Future Changes in Boreal Hydrology A. Marshall et al.
- Guidelines for Publicly Archiving Terrestrial Model Data to Enhance Usability, Intercomparison, and Synthesis M. Simmonds et al.
- How temperature seasonality drives interglacial permafrost dynamics: implications for paleo reconstructions and future thaw trajectories J. Nitzbon et al.
- Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw S. Painter et al.
- An effective medium theory-based unified model for estimating thermal conductivity of unfrozen and frozen soils H. Ji et al.
- Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change E. Burke et al.
- Beyond carbon: Multi-scale thermal and hydrological feedback of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau Y. Xiao et al.
- Model-based analysis of solute transport and potential carbon mineralization in the active layer of a hillslope underlain by permafrost with seasonal variability and climate change A. Hamm et al.
- Modeling the role of preferential snow accumulation in through talik development and hillslope groundwater flow in a transitional permafrost landscape E. Jafarov et al.
- Evaluating temporal controls on greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in an Arctic tundra environment: An entropy-based approach B. Arora et al.
- Response of peat-rich permafrost to a warming climate on the northeast Tibetan Plateau R. Du et al.
- Beyond MAGT: learning more from permafrost thermal monitoring data with additional metrics N. Brown & S. Gruber
- A numerical study of process complexity in permafrost dominated regions R. Lakshmiprasad et al.
- Estimation of above- and below-ground ecosystem parameters for DVM-DOS-TEM v0.7.0 using MADS v1.7.3 E. Jafarov et al.
- Hydrologic Impacts of Thawing Permafrost—A Review M. Walvoord & B. Kurylyk
- GlobSim (v1.0): deriving meteorological time series for point locations from multiple global reanalyses B. Cao et al.
- Estimation of subsurface porosities and thermal conductivities of polygonal tundra by coupled inversion of electrical resistivity, temperature, and moisture content data E. Jafarov et al.
- Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska C. Abolt et al.
- A Monte-Carlo-Based Method for Probabilistic Permafrost Mapping Across Northeast China During 2003 to 2022 Y. Xiao et al.
- Impacts of microtopographic snow redistribution and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states in an Arctic polygonal ground ecosystem: a case study using ELM-3D v1.0 G. Bisht et al.
- The thermal state of permafrost under climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (1980–2022): a case study of the West Kunlun J. Zhao et al.
- Estimating Seasonally Frozen Ground Depth From Historical Climate Data and Site Measurements Using a Bayesian Model Y. Qin et al.
- Empirical Models for Predicting Water and Heat Flow Properties of Permafrost Soils M. O'Connor et al.
- New insights into the drainage of inundated ice-wedge polygons using fundamental hydrologic principles D. Harp et al.
- Towards the incorporation of hydrogeochemistry into the modelling of permafrost environments: a review of recent recommendations, considerations, and literature C. Lapalme et al.
- Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer B. Groenke et al.
- Modeling the spatiotemporal variability in subsurface thermal regimes across a low-relief polygonal tundra landscape J. Kumar et al.
- A Review of Hydrological Models Applied in the Permafrost-Dominated Arctic Region M. Bui et al.
- Microtopographic control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons C. Abolt et al.
- Integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology: Model formulation and proof‐of‐concept simulations S. Painter et al.
- Soil moisture redistribution and its effect on inter-annual active layer temperature and thickness variations in a dry loess terrace in Adventdalen, Svalbard C. Schuh et al.
- Sensitivity evaluation of the Kudryavtsev permafrost model K. Wang et al.
- Design of a fractional-order atmospheric model via a class of ACT-like chaotic system and its sliding mode chaos control M. Naik et al.
- Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 1. Rates of Permafrost Thaw Depend on Changes in Vegetation and Drainage R. Grant et al.
- Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska X. Huang et al.
- How does humidity data impact land surface modeling of hydrothermal regimes at a permafrost site in Utqiaġvik, Alaska? X. Huang et al.
- Permafrost dynamics and their hydrologic impacts over the Russian Arctic drainage basin K. Wang et al.
- Water and heat coupling processes and its simulation in frozen soils: Current status and future research directions G. Hu et al.
- NoahPy: a differentiable Noah land surface model for simulating permafrost thermo-hydrology W. Tian et al.
- Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams Y. Sjöberg et al.
- Permafrost Thawing and Estimates of Vulnerable Carbon in the Northern High Latitude I. Nadeem et al.
- Water-heat coupling process analysis of seasonally frozen soil with spatially variable thermal parameters Y. Liu et al.
- δHT4P: A differentiable physical modeling framework for thermal evolution of permafrost L. Gou & W. Likos
- Knowledge-integrated deep learning for predicting stochastic thermal regime of embankment in permafrost region L. Xiao et al.
46 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluating integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in ATS (v0.88) against observations from a polygonal tundra site A. Jan et al.
- Evaluation of Parameterization Schemes for Matric Potential in Frozen Soil in Land Surface Models: A Modeling Perspective Y. Zhao et al.
- Importance of Parameter and Climate Data Uncertainty for Future Changes in Boreal Hydrology A. Marshall et al.
- Guidelines for Publicly Archiving Terrestrial Model Data to Enhance Usability, Intercomparison, and Synthesis M. Simmonds et al.
- How temperature seasonality drives interglacial permafrost dynamics: implications for paleo reconstructions and future thaw trajectories J. Nitzbon et al.
- Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw S. Painter et al.
- An effective medium theory-based unified model for estimating thermal conductivity of unfrozen and frozen soils H. Ji et al.
- Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change E. Burke et al.
- Beyond carbon: Multi-scale thermal and hydrological feedback of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau Y. Xiao et al.
- Model-based analysis of solute transport and potential carbon mineralization in the active layer of a hillslope underlain by permafrost with seasonal variability and climate change A. Hamm et al.
- Modeling the role of preferential snow accumulation in through talik development and hillslope groundwater flow in a transitional permafrost landscape E. Jafarov et al.
- Evaluating temporal controls on greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in an Arctic tundra environment: An entropy-based approach B. Arora et al.
- Response of peat-rich permafrost to a warming climate on the northeast Tibetan Plateau R. Du et al.
- Beyond MAGT: learning more from permafrost thermal monitoring data with additional metrics N. Brown & S. Gruber
- A numerical study of process complexity in permafrost dominated regions R. Lakshmiprasad et al.
- Estimation of above- and below-ground ecosystem parameters for DVM-DOS-TEM v0.7.0 using MADS v1.7.3 E. Jafarov et al.
- Hydrologic Impacts of Thawing Permafrost—A Review M. Walvoord & B. Kurylyk
- GlobSim (v1.0): deriving meteorological time series for point locations from multiple global reanalyses B. Cao et al.
- Estimation of subsurface porosities and thermal conductivities of polygonal tundra by coupled inversion of electrical resistivity, temperature, and moisture content data E. Jafarov et al.
- Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska C. Abolt et al.
- A Monte-Carlo-Based Method for Probabilistic Permafrost Mapping Across Northeast China During 2003 to 2022 Y. Xiao et al.
- Impacts of microtopographic snow redistribution and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states in an Arctic polygonal ground ecosystem: a case study using ELM-3D v1.0 G. Bisht et al.
- The thermal state of permafrost under climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (1980–2022): a case study of the West Kunlun J. Zhao et al.
- Estimating Seasonally Frozen Ground Depth From Historical Climate Data and Site Measurements Using a Bayesian Model Y. Qin et al.
- Empirical Models for Predicting Water and Heat Flow Properties of Permafrost Soils M. O'Connor et al.
- New insights into the drainage of inundated ice-wedge polygons using fundamental hydrologic principles D. Harp et al.
- Towards the incorporation of hydrogeochemistry into the modelling of permafrost environments: a review of recent recommendations, considerations, and literature C. Lapalme et al.
- Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer B. Groenke et al.
- Modeling the spatiotemporal variability in subsurface thermal regimes across a low-relief polygonal tundra landscape J. Kumar et al.
- A Review of Hydrological Models Applied in the Permafrost-Dominated Arctic Region M. Bui et al.
- Microtopographic control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons C. Abolt et al.
- Integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology: Model formulation and proof‐of‐concept simulations S. Painter et al.
- Soil moisture redistribution and its effect on inter-annual active layer temperature and thickness variations in a dry loess terrace in Adventdalen, Svalbard C. Schuh et al.
- Sensitivity evaluation of the Kudryavtsev permafrost model K. Wang et al.
- Design of a fractional-order atmospheric model via a class of ACT-like chaotic system and its sliding mode chaos control M. Naik et al.
- Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 1. Rates of Permafrost Thaw Depend on Changes in Vegetation and Drainage R. Grant et al.
- Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska X. Huang et al.
- How does humidity data impact land surface modeling of hydrothermal regimes at a permafrost site in Utqiaġvik, Alaska? X. Huang et al.
- Permafrost dynamics and their hydrologic impacts over the Russian Arctic drainage basin K. Wang et al.
- Water and heat coupling processes and its simulation in frozen soils: Current status and future research directions G. Hu et al.
- NoahPy: a differentiable Noah land surface model for simulating permafrost thermo-hydrology W. Tian et al.
- Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams Y. Sjöberg et al.
- Permafrost Thawing and Estimates of Vulnerable Carbon in the Northern High Latitude I. Nadeem et al.
- Water-heat coupling process analysis of seasonally frozen soil with spatially variable thermal parameters Y. Liu et al.
- δHT4P: A differentiable physical modeling framework for thermal evolution of permafrost L. Gou & W. Likos
- Knowledge-integrated deep learning for predicting stochastic thermal regime of embankment in permafrost region L. Xiao et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 18 May 2026
Short summary
This paper investigates the uncertainty associated with permafrost thaw projections at an intensively monitored site. Permafrost thaw projections are simulated using a thermal hydrology model forced by a worst-case carbon emission scenario. The uncertainties associated with active layer depth, saturation state, thermal regime, and thaw duration are quantified and compared with the effects of climate model uncertainty on permafrost thaw projections.
This paper investigates the uncertainty associated with permafrost thaw projections at an...