Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2295-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2295-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Identification and correction of snow depth bias in ERA5 datasets over Central Europe using machine learning
Doctoral School of Exact and Natural Sciences, Jagiellonian University, Krakow, 31-007, Poland
Department of Climatology, Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian University, Krakow, 31-007 Poland
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute, Krakow, 30-215, Poland
Zbigniew Ustrnul
Department of Climatology, Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian University, Krakow, 31-007 Poland
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute, Krakow, 30-215, Poland
Cited articles
Baba, M. W., Boudhar, A., Gascoin, S., Hanich, L., Marchane, A., and Chehbouni, A.: Assessment of MERRA-2 and ERA5 to Model the Snow Water Equivalent in the High Atlas (1981–2019), Water, 13, 890, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070890, 2021.
Benito, B.: BlasBenito/collinear: CRAN release v1.0.1, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10039489, 2023.
Bochenek, B. and Ustrnul, Z.: Machine Learning in Weather Prediction and Climate Analyses – Applications and Perspectives, Atmosphere, 13, 180, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13020180, 2022.
Boehmke, B. C. and Greenwell, B.: Hands-on machine learning with R, CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, Boca Raton London New York, p. 1, https://doi.org/10.1201/9780367816377, 2020.
Breiman, L.: Random Forests, Mach. Learn., 45, 5–32, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324, 2001.
Brown, R. D. and Mote, P. W.: The Response of Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover to a Changing Climate, J. Climate, 22, 2124–2145, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2665.1, 2009.
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): ERA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac, 2019.
Cui, G., Anderson, M., and Bales, R.: Mapping of snow water equivalent by a deep-learning model assimilating snow observations, J. Hydrol., 616, 128835, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128835, 2023.
Czernecki, B., Taszarek, M., Marosz, M., Półrolniczak, M., Kolendowicz, L., Wyszogrodzki, A., and Szturc, J.: Application of machine learning to large hail prediction – The importance of radar reflectivity, lightning occurrence and convective parameters derived from ERA5, Atmos. Res., 227, 249–262, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.05.010, 2019.
Dalla Torre, D., Di Marco, N., Menapace, A., Avesani, D., Righetti, M., and Majone, B.: Suitability of ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset for hydrological modelling in the Alpine region, J. Hydrol.: Regional Studies, 52, 101718, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101718, 2024.
de Burgh-Day, C. O. and Leeuwenburg, T.: Machine learning for numerical weather and climate modelling: a review, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6433–6477, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6433-2023, 2023.
de Rosnay, P., Isaksen, L., and Dahoui, M.: Snow data assimilation at ECMWF, ECMWF Newsletter, 143, 26–31, https://doi.org/10.21957/LKPXQ6X5, 2015.
Dietz, A. J., Kuenzer, C., and Dech, S.: Global SnowPack: a new set of snow cover parameters for studying status and dynamics of the planetary snow cover extent, Remote Sens. Lett., 6, 844–853, https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2015.1084551, 2015.
ECMWF: IFS Documentation CY43R1 – Part II: Data Assimilation, ECMWF [data set], https://doi.org/10.21957/AM5DTG9PB, 2016a.
ECMWF: IFS Documentation CY43R1 – Part IV: Physical Processes, ECMWF [data set], https://doi.org/10.21957/SQVO5YXJA, 2016b.
ECMWF: Response to query on assimilation of snow depth in ERA5, ECMWF, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19350555, 2024.
Elyoussfi, H., Boudhar, A., Belaqziz, S., Bousbaa, M., Nifa, K., and Chehbouni, A.: Towards a Deep-Learning Approach for Snow Depth Prediction Over Mountainous Area in Morocco, 44th Canadian Symposium on Remote Sensing, June 2023, Yellowknife, NWT, Canada, https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.26384.42241, 2023.
Falarz, M. and Bednorz, E.: Snow Cover Change, in: Climate Change in Poland, edited by: Falarz, M., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 375–390, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70328-8_14, 2021.
Hedstrom, N. R. and Pomeroy, J. W.: Measurements and modelling of snow interception in the boreal forest, Hydrol. Process., 12, 1611–1625, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199808/09)12:10/11<1611::AID-HYP684>3.0.CO;2-4, 1998.
Helmert, J., Şensoy Şorman, A., Alvarado Montero, R., De Michele, C., de Rosnay, P., Dumont, M., Finger, D. C., Lange, M., Picard, G., Potopová, V., Pullen, S., Vikhamar-Schuler, D., and Arslan, A. N.: Review of Snow Data Assimilation Methods for Hydrological, Land Surface, Meteorological and Climate Models: Results from a COST HarmoSnow Survey, Geosciences, 8, 489, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8120489, 2018.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hijmans, R. J.: terra: Spatial Data Analysis, CRAN [code], https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.terra, 2020.
Hu, Y., Che, T., Dai, L., Zhu, Y., Xiao, L., Deng, J., and Li, X.: A long-term daily gridded snow depth dataset for the Northern Hemisphere from 1980 to 2019 based on machine learning, Big Earth Data, 8, 274–301, https://doi.org/10.1080/20964471.2023.2177435, 2024.
Jarvis, A., Reuter, H. I., Nelson, A., and Guevara, E.: Hole-filled seamless SRTM data V4 (4.1), International Centre for Tropical Agriculture [data set], http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org (last access: 15 May 2023), 2008.
King, F., Erler, A. R., Frey, S. K., and Fletcher, C. G.: Application of machine learning techniques for regional bias correction of snow water equivalent estimates in Ontario, Canada, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4887–4902, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4887-2020, 2020.
Kursa, M. B. and Rudnicki, W. R.: Feature Selection with the Boruta Package, J. Stat. Soft., 36, https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v036.i11, 2010.
Le Moigne, P., Boone, A., Calvet, J., Decharme, B., Faroux, S., Gibelin, A., Lebeaupin, C., Mahfouf, J., Martin, E., and Masson, V.: SURFEX v8. 1 Scientific Documentation, Note de centre (CNRM/GMME), Météo-France, Toulouse, France, 2018.
Lei, Y., Pan, J., Xiong, C., Jiang, L., and Shi, J.: Snow depth and snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau observed from space in against ERA5: matters of scale, Clim. Dynam., 60, 1523–1541, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06376-0, 2023.
Liston, G. E., Haehnel, R. B., Sturm, M., Hiemstra, C. A., Berezovskaya, S., and Tabler, R. D.: Simulating complex snow distributions in windy environments using SnowTran-3D, J. Glaciol., 53, 241–256, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756507782202865, 2007.
Liu, Z., Filhol, S., and Treichler, D.: Retrieving snow depth distribution by downscaling ERA5 Reanalysis with ICESat-2 laser altimetry, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 239, 104580, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104580, 2025.
Majidi, F., Sabetghadam, S., Gharaylou, M., and Rezaian, R.: Evaluation of the performance of ERA5, ERA5-Land and MERRA-2 reanalysis to estimate snow depth over a mountainous semi-arid region in Iran, J. Hydrol.: Regional Studies, 58, 102246, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102246, 2025.
Marsh, C. B., Lv, Z., Vionnet, V., Harder, P., Spiteri, R. J., and Pomeroy, J. W.: Snowdrift-Permitting Simulations of Seasonal Snowpack Processes Over Large Mountain Extents, Water Resour. Res., 60, e2023WR036948, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036948, 2024.
Meehan, T. G., Hojatimalekshah, A., Marshall, H.-P., Deeb, E. J., O'Neel, S., McGrath, D., Webb, R. W., Bonnell, R., Raleigh, M. S., Hiemstra, C., and Elder, K.: Spatially distributed snow depth, bulk density, and snow water equivalent from ground-based and airborne sensor integration at Grand Mesa, Colorado, USA, The Cryosphere, 18, 3253–3276, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3253-2024, 2024.
Monteiro, D. and Morin, S.: Multi-decadal analysis of past winter temperature, precipitation and snow cover data in the European Alps from reanalyses, climate models and observational datasets, The Cryosphere, 17, 3617–3660, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3617-2023, 2023.
Mortimer, C., Mudryk, L., Derksen, C., Luojus, K., Brown, R., Kelly, R., and Tedesco, M.: Evaluation of long-term Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent products, The Cryosphere, 14, 1579–1594, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1579-2020, 2020.
Mott, R., Vionnet, V., and Grünewald, T.: The Seasonal Snow Cover Dynamics: Review on Wind-Driven Coupling Processes, Front. Earth Sci., 6, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00197, 2018.
Muckley, E. S., Saal, J. E., Meredig, B., Roper, C. S., and Martin, J. H.: Interpretable models for extrapolation in scientific machine learning, http://arxiv.org/abs/2212.10283 (last access: 24 January 2024), 16 December 2022.
Mudryk, L., Mortimer, C., Derksen, C., Elias Chereque, A., and Kushner, P.: Benchmarking of snow water equivalent (SWE) products based on outcomes of the SnowPEx+ Intercomparison Project, The Cryosphere, 19, 201–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-201-2025, 2025.
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Dutra, E., Agustí-Panareda, A., Albergel, C., Arduini, G., Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S., Choulga, M., Harrigan, S., Hersbach, H., Martens, B., Miralles, D. G., Piles, M., Rodríguez-Fernández, N. J., Zsoter, E., Buontempo, C., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5-Land: a state-of-the-art global reanalysis dataset for land applications, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4349–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021, 2021.
Nouri, M. and Homaee, M.: Spatiotemporal changes of snow metrics in mountainous data-scarce areas using reanalyses, J. Hydrol., 603, 126858, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126858, 2021.
O'Gorman, P. A. and Dwyer, J. G.: Using machine learning to parameterize moist convection: potential for modeling of climate, climate change and extreme events, J. Adv. Model Earth Sy., 10, 2548–2563, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001351, 2018.
Orsolini, Y., Wegmann, M., Dutra, E., Liu, B., Balsamo, G., Yang, K., de Rosnay, P., Zhu, C., Wang, W., Senan, R., and Arduini, G.: Evaluation of snow depth and snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau in global reanalyses using in situ and satellite remote sensing observations, The Cryosphere, 13, 2221–2239, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2221-2019, 2019.
Palarz, A., Luterbacher, J., Ustrnul, Z., Xoplaki, E., and Celiński-Mysław, D.: Representation of low-tropospheric temperature inversions in ECMWF reanalyses over Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 074043, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d5d, 2020.
Pflug, J. M., Kumar, S. V., Hall, D. K., Riggs, G. A., Konapala, G., Whitney, K. M., Wrzesien, M. L., Nie, W., Sun, Z., and Arsenault, K. R.: Efficient and Regionally Transferable Snow Water Equivalent Estimation Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network, J. Geophys. Res.-Machine Learning and Computation, 2, e2025JH000593, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JH000593, 2025.
Pomeroy, J. W. and Brun, E.: Physical properties of snow, in: Snow ecology: An interdisciplinary examination of snow-covered ecosystems, vol. 45, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 118, 2001.
Probst, P., Wright, M., and Boulesteix, A.-L.: Hyperparameters and Tuning Strategies for Random Forest, WIREs Data Min & Knowl, 9, e1301, https://doi.org/10.1002/widm.1301, 2019.
Qiao, D., Li, Z., Zhang, P., Zhou, J., and Liang, S.: Prediction of Snow Depth Based on Multi-Source Data and Machine Learning Algorithms, in: 2021 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium IGARSS, 2021 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium IGARSS, 5578–5581, https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS47720.2021.9554675, 2021.
Sałaja, J.: Wieloletnia zmienność pokrywy śnieżnej w Europie Środkowej, M.Sc. thesis, Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian University, 2025.
Schulzweida, U.: CDO User Guide, Zenodo [software documentation], https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10020800, 2023.
Sebbar, B., Khabba, S., Merlin, O., Simonneaux, V., Hachimi, C. E., Kharrou, M. H., and Chehbouni, A.: Machine-Learning-Based Downscaling of Hourly ERA5-Land Air Temperature over Mountainous Regions, Atmosphere, 14, 610, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14040610, 2023.
Shrestha, S., Zaramella, M., Callegari, M., Greifeneder, F., and Borga, M.: Scale Dependence of Errors in Snow Water Equivalent Simulations Using ERA5 Reanalysis over Alpine Basins, Climate, 11, 154, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11070154, 2023.
Song, Y., Tsai, W.-P., Gluck, J., Rhoades, A., Zarzycki, C., McCrary, R., Lawson, K., and Shen, C.: LSTM-Based Data Integration to Improve Snow Water Equivalent Prediction and Diagnose Error Sources, J. Hydrometeorol., 25, 223–237, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0220.1, 2024.
Stachura, G.: Evaluation and machine-learning-based downscaling of ERA5 snow depth in Central Europe, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-168, 2024.
Stachura, G., Ustrnul, Z., Sekuła, P., Bochenek, B., Kolonko, M., and Szczęch-Gajewska, M.: Machine learning based post-processing of model-derived near-surface air temperature – A multimodel approach, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 150, 618–631, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4613, 2024.
Sun, L., Zhang, X., Wang, H., Xiao, P., and Wang, Y.: Estimating Daily Snow Density Through a Spatiotemporal Random Forest Model, Water Resour. Res., 60, e2023WR036942, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036942, 2024.
Takala, M., Luojus, K., Pulliainen, J., Derksen, C., Lemmetyinen, J., Kärnä, J.-P., Koskinen, J., and Bojkov, B.: Estimating northern hemisphere snow water equivalent for climate research through assimilation of space-borne radiometer data and ground-based measurements, Remote Sens. Environ., 115, 3517–3529, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2011.08.014, 2011.
Tanniru, S., R, C. P., Singh, K. K., and Ramsankaran, R.: Development of Machine Learning based Historical Snow Depth Dataset for Western Himalaya using Multiple Reanalysis Datasets, AGU Fall Meeting, event-title: AGU Fall Meeting AbstractsADS Bibcode: 2023AGUFM.C32C..05T, C32C-05, 2023.
Van Doninck, J.: Software code: Horizon: Horizon Search Algorithm. R package version 1.2, https://cran.r-project.org/src/contrib/Archive/horizon (last access: 1 April 2026), 2018.
Varga, A. and Breuer, H.: Evaluation of snow depth from multiple observation-based, reanalysis, and regional climate model datasets over a low-altitude Central European region, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 153, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04539-5, 2023.
Vernay, M., Lafaysse, M., Monteiro, D., Hagenmuller, P., Nheili, R., Samacoïts, R., Verfaillie, D., and Morin, S.: The S2M meteorological and snow cover reanalysis over the French mountainous areas: description and evaluation (1958–2021), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1707–1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1707-2022, 2022.
Viallon-Galinier, L., Hagenmuller, P., and Eckert, N.: Combining modelled snowpack stability with machine learning to predict avalanche activity, The Cryosphere, 17, 2245–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023, 2023.
Wang, X., Tolksdorf, V., Otto, M., and Scherer, D.: WRF-based dynamical downscaling of ERA5 reanalysis data for High Mountain Asia: Towards a new version of the High Asia Refined analysis, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 743–762, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6686, 2021.
Warner, T. T.: Numerical weather and climate prediction, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge , New York, 526 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511763243, 2011.
Wright, M. N. and Ziegler, A.: Ranger: A Fast Implementation of Random Forests for High Dimensional Data in C and R, J. Stat. Softw., 77, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v077.i01, 2017.
Yang, J., Jiang, L., Luojus, K., Pan, J., Lemmetyinen, J., Takala, M., and Wu, S.: Snow depth estimation and historical data reconstruction over China based on a random forest machine learning approach, The Cryosphere, 14, 1763–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1763-2020, 2020.
Yang, T., Li, Q., Chen, X., Hamdi, R., De Maeyer, P., and Li, L.: Variation of Snow Mass in a Regional Climate Model Downscaling Simulation Covering the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034183, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034183, 2021.
Short summary
Reanalyses still struggle to accurately estimate snow depth, mostly because their horizontal resolution is beyond the spatial scale of snow variability. A comparison of two Copernicus reanalyses ERA5 and ERA5-Land reveals systematic errors and highlights the importance of data assimilation. A Random Forests model is able to reduce the systematic error by around a half. Spatial downscaling in complex terrain reflects mainly elevation dependence but also shadowing effect of surrounding topography.
Reanalyses still struggle to accurately estimate snow depth, mostly because their horizontal...