The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1967-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1967-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
Research article
 | 
10 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 10 Apr 2026

Stochastic modelling of thermokarst lakes: size distributions and dynamic regimes

Constanze Reinken, Victor Brovkin, Philipp de Vrese, Ingmar Nitze, Helena Bergstedt, and Guido Grosse

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Short summary
Thermokarst lakes are dynamic features of ice-rich permafrost landscapes, altering energy, water and carbon cycles, but have so far mostly been modeled on site-level scale. A deterministic modelling approach would be challenging on larger scales due to the lack of extensive high-resolution data of sub-surface conditions. We therefore develop a conceptual stochastic model of thermokarst lake dynamics that treats the involved processes as probabilistic.
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