Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1523-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1523-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Sea ice albedo bounded data assimilation and its impact on modeling: a regional approach
Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science, University of Washington, Seattle, 98195, Washington, United States
Molly M. Wieringa
Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science, University of Washington, Seattle, 98195, Washington, United States
Advanced Study Program, National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, 80309, Colorado, United States
Cecilia M. Bitz
Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science, University of Washington, Seattle, 98195, Washington, United States
Robin P. Clancy
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, 73019, Oklahoma, United States
Steven M. Cavallo
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, 73019, Oklahoma, United States
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Nils Hutter and Cecilia M. Bitz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-461, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Polar oceans are covered by many pieces of floating ice, called floes, that vary in size, shape and thickness. This study focuses on how fracturing caused by stresses from wind and ocean currents changes floe sizes. Using satellite images, we track ice motion and floe sizes, and study floe shapes and how deformation alters the distribution of floe sizes. We find that stronger deformation creates more small floes and present a formula to include this effect in sea-ice models.
Molly M. Wieringa and Cecilia M. Bitz
The Cryosphere, 19, 6207–6227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6207-2025, 2025
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Integrating observations into complex sea ice models improves model estimates, but the impact of specific kinds of observations may vary in space and time. By modeling sea ice at single locations, this work quantifies the impact of four different observation kinds on sea ice at three characteristic locations in the Arctic. The results indicate that this simplified experimental framework is a useful tool for developing methods to meld new and existing observations with modern sea ice models.
Molly M. Wieringa, Christopher Riedel, Jeffrey L. Anderson, and Cecilia M. Bitz
The Cryosphere, 18, 5365–5382, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5365-2024, 2024
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Statistically combining models and observations with data assimilation (DA) can improve sea ice forecasts but must address several challenges, including irregularity in ice thickness and coverage over the ocean. Using a sea ice column model, we show that novel, bounds-aware DA methods outperform traditional methods for sea ice. Additionally, thickness observations at sub-grid scales improve modeled ice estimates of both thick and thin ice, a finding relevant for forecasting applications.
Matthew T. Bray and Steven M. Cavallo
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 251–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-251-2022, 2022
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Tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) are a high-latitude atmospheric phenomenon that impact weather inside and outside of polar regions. Using a set of long-lived TPVs to gain insight into the conditions that are most supportive of TPV survival, we describe patterns of vortex formation and movement. In addition, we analyze the characteristics of these TPVs and how they vary by season. These results help us to better understand TPVs which, in turn, may improve forecasts of related weather events.
Yong-Fei Zhang, Cecilia M. Bitz, Jeffrey L. Anderson, Nancy S. Collins, Timothy J. Hoar, Kevin D. Raeder, and Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth
The Cryosphere, 15, 1277–1284, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1277-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1277-2021, 2021
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Sea ice models suffer from large uncertainties arising from multiple sources, among which parametric uncertainty is highly under-investigated. We select a key ice albedo parameter and update it by assimilating either sea ice concentration or thickness observations. We found that the sea ice albedo parameter is improved by data assimilation, especially by assimilating sea ice thickness observations. The improved parameter can further benefit the forecast of sea ice after data assimilation stops.
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Short summary
We tested a new way to improve Arctic sea ice forecasts by adding satellite-based surface brightness, or albedo, into a sea ice model. This approach captures key surface changes like melting and snowfall that affect ice loss. We found it often gives better results when combined with standard data like ice coverage or thickness, especially during the melt season. This method offers a powerful tool for tracking Arctic sea ice in a changing climate.
We tested a new way to improve Arctic sea ice forecasts by adding satellite-based surface...