A history-matching analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the Last Interglacial – Part 1: Ice sheet evolution

Lecavalier, Benoit S.; Tarasov, Lev

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-919-2025

Articles | Volume 19, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-919-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Icy landscapes of the past (CP/ESSD/ESurf/TC inter-journal...

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-919-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 2

Research article

|

26 Feb 2025

Research article |

| 26 Feb 2025

A history-matching analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the Last Interglacial – Part 1: Ice sheet evolution

Benoit S. Lecavalier and Lev Tarasov

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-919-2025-supplement

Data sets

Antarctic ice sheet paleo-constraint database B. Lecavalier et al. https://theghub.org/resources/4884

Model code and software

The glacial systems model (GSM) Version 24G, code archive (Version 24G) L. Tarasov https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14599678

Short summary

We present the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) over the last 200 kyr by means of a history-matching analysis where an updated observational database constrained ~ 10 000 model simulations. During peak glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the best-fitting sub-ensemble of AIS simulations reached an excess grounded ice volume relative to the present of 9.2 to 26.5 m equivalent sea level relative to the present. The LGM AIS volume can help resolve the LGM missing-ice problem.