Articles | Volume 19, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3693-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3693-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Sep 2025
Research article |
| 11 Sep 2025
| 11 Sep 2025
Model-based analysis of solute transport and potential carbon mineralization in the active layer of a hillslope underlain by permafrost with seasonal variability and climate change
Alexandra Hamm
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Erik Schytt Mannerfelt
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Aaron A. Mohammed
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244, USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244, USA
Scott L. Painter
Climate Change Science Institute and Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, USA
Ethan T. Coon
Climate Change Science Institute and Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, USA
Andrew Frampton
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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Erik Schytt Mannerfelt and Thomas Schellenberger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6305, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Crevasses are deep cracks in glacier ice that route water to the glacier bed and endanger travel, yet are rarely mapped regionally. We trained a machine-learning model on satellite data to map visible crevasses on all Svalbard glaciers each year from 2017 to 2025. Three in four glaciers with a clear trend lost crevasses in their lower parts, yet the total area grew, likely as thinning snow cover exposed crevasses higher up. Yearly maps can help detect glacier surges and plan safe travel routes.
Loris Danjou, Eero Rinne, and Erik Schytt Mannerfelt
The Cryosphere, 20, 4133–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4133-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4133-2026, 2026
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We retrieved front locations for 171 Svalbard tidewater glaciers in the 1960s and 1970s, from Landsat images and – for the first time in this region – declassified intelligence satellite photographs. We compared our results to aerial photographs from the 1930s and calculated that these glaciers retreated by about 1 km between 1936 and 1978. We also discovered one undocumented glacier surge (a rapid front advance), precised the time frames of two others, and documented two other glacier advances.
Tazio Strozzi, Erik Schytt Mannerfelt, Oliver Cartus, Maurizio Santoro, Thomas Schellenberger, and Andreas Kääb
The Cryosphere, 20, 1679–1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1679-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1679-2026, 2026
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By analysing 30 years of satellite SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data, we have found that the number of glacier surges over Svalbard has tripled since 2015. We show that this increase is unlikely to be explained solely by improvements in data quality or by random fluctuations in surge frequency, suggesting that this trend is caused by an external forcing mechanism. Given our incomplete understanding of surge initiation, the cause of the observed threefold increase remains however uncertain.
Xiang Huang, Yu Zhang, Bo Gao, Charles J. Abolt, Ryan L. Crumley, Cansu Demir, Richard P. Fiorella, Bob Busey, Bob Bolton, Scott L. Painter, and Katrina E. Bennett
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1193–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1193-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1193-2026, 2026
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Predicting hydrological runoff in Arctic permafrost regions is difficult due to limited observations and complex terrain. We used a detailed physics-based model simulations to improve runoff estimates in a Earth system land model. Our method improved runoff accuracy and worked well across two different Arctic regions. This helps make runoff parameterization schemes more reliable for understanding water flow in permafrost areas under a changing climate.
Huilin Huang, Yun Qian, Gautam Bisht, Jiali Wang, Tirthankar Chakraborty, Dalei Hao, Jianfeng Li, Travis Thurber, Balwinder Singh, Zhao Yang, Ye Liu, Pengfei Xue, William J. Sacks, Ethan Coon, and Robert Hetland
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1427–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, 2025
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We integrate the E3SM Land Model (ELM) with the WRF model through the Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This framework includes a top-level driver, LILAC, for variable communication between WRF and ELM and ESMF caps for ELM initialization, execution, and finalization. The LILAC–ESMF framework maintains the integrity of the ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future ELM model developments to WRF-ELM.
James Stegen, Amy J. Burgin, Michelle H. Busch, Joshua B. Fisher, Joshua Ladau, Jenna Abrahamson, Lauren Kinsman-Costello, Li Li, Xingyuan Chen, Thibault Datry, Nate McDowell, Corianne Tatariw, Anna Braswell, Jillian M. Deines, Julia A. Guimond, Peter Regier, Kenton Rod, Edward K. P. Bam, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Inke Forbrich, Kristin L. Jaeger, Teri O'Meara, Tim Scheibe, Erin Seybold, Jon N. Sweetman, Jianqiu Zheng, Daniel C. Allen, Elizabeth Herndon, Beth A. Middleton, Scott Painter, Kevin Roche, Julianne Scamardo, Ross Vander Vorste, Kristin Boye, Ellen Wohl, Margaret Zimmer, Kelly Hondula, Maggi Laan, Anna Marshall, and Kaizad F. Patel
Biogeosciences, 22, 995–1034, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-995-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-995-2025, 2025
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The loss and gain of surface water (variable inundation) are common processes across Earth. Global change shifts variable inundation dynamics, highlighting a need for unified understanding that transcends individual variably inundated ecosystems (VIEs). We review the literature, highlight challenges, and emphasize opportunities to generate transferable knowledge by viewing VIEs through a common lens. We aim to inspire the emergence of a cross-VIE community based on a proposed continuum approach.
Andrew Frampton
Adv. Geosci., 65, 149–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-65-149-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-65-149-2025, 2025
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This study reveals new insights to the behaviour of subsurface water flow in fractured bedrock which has important implications for environmental safety of geological storage of spent nuclear fuel, carbon sequestration and other unwanted substances. It shows the relevance of accounting for small scale fracture heterogeneity in models to make accurate predictions on the transit times and pathways water flow takes through bedrock.
Radhakrishna Bangalore Lakshmiprasad, Fan Zhang, Ethan T. Coon, and Thomas Graf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3122, 2024
Preprint archived
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An effective method of understanding permafrost dynamics due to climate change is numerical modeling. The research work established a novel numerical approach to assess the required level of surface process complexity and set up a numerical model at the Yakou catchment in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The main research findings were that permafrost thawing was not well represented by considering only subsurface processes, and liquid precipitation increased the rate of permafrost degradation.
Fabian Walter, Elias Hodel, Erik S. Mannerfelt, Kristen Cook, Michael Dietze, Livia Estermann, Michaela Wenner, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Fengler, Lukas Hammerschmidt, Flavia Hänsli, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4011–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, 2022
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Debris flows are dangerous sediment–water mixtures in steep terrain. Their formation takes place in poorly accessible terrain where instrumentation cannot be installed. Here we propose to monitor such source terrain with an autonomous drone for mapping sediments which were left behind by debris flows or may contribute to future events. Short flight intervals elucidate changes of such sediments, providing important information for landscape evolution and the likelihood of future debris flows.
Bo Gao and Ethan T. Coon
The Cryosphere, 16, 4141–4162, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4141-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4141-2022, 2022
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Representing water at constant density, neglecting cryosuction, and neglecting heat advection are three commonly applied but not validated simplifications in permafrost models to reduce computation complexity at field scale. We investigated this problem numerically by Advanced Terrestrial Simulator and found that neglecting cryosuction can cause significant bias (10%–60%), constant density primarily affects predicting water saturation, and ignoring heat advection has the least impact.
Erik Schytt Mannerfelt, Amaury Dehecq, Romain Hugonnet, Elias Hodel, Matthias Huss, Andreas Bauder, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 16, 3249–3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3249-2022, 2022
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How glaciers have responded to climate change over the last 20 years is well-known, but earlier data are much more scarce. We change this in Switzerland by using 22 000 photographs taken from mountain tops between the world wars and find a halving of Swiss glacier volume since 1931. This was done through new automated processing techniques that we created. The data are interesting for more than just glaciers, such as mapping forest changes, landslides, and human impacts on the terrain.
Pin Shuai, Xingyuan Chen, Utkarsh Mital, Ethan T. Coon, and Dipankar Dwivedi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2245–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2245-2022, 2022
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Using an integrated watershed model, we compared simulated watershed hydrologic variables driven by three publicly available gridded meteorological forcings (GMFs) at various spatial and temporal resolutions. Our results demonstrated that spatially distributed variables are sensitive to the spatial resolution of the GMF. The temporal resolution of the GMF impacts the dynamics of watershed responses. The choice of GMF depends on the quantity of interest and its spatial and temporal scales.
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Short summary
The fate of thawing permafrost carbon is essential for understanding the permafrost–climate feedback and projections of future climate. Here we study transport of organic carbon by groundwater in the active layer of a hillslope model. We find that carbon transport velocities and microbial mineralization rates are strongly dependent on liquid saturation in the seasonally thawed active layer. In a warming climate, the rate at which permafrost thaws determines how fast carbon can be transported.
The fate of thawing permafrost carbon is essential for understanding the permafrost–climate...
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