Articles | Volume 19, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3227-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3227-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Aug 2025
Research article |
| 25 Aug 2025
| 25 Aug 2025
Modeling mixing and melting in laminar seawater intrusions under grounded ice
Madeline S. Mamer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
Alexander A. Robel
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
Chris C. K. Lai
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
Earle Wilson
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Peter Washam
Department of Astronomy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
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Lexi Arlen, Earle Wilson, Véronique Dansereau, Ching-Yao Lai, and Yue Meng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3166, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Sea ice deforms discretely, through fracturing and collisions, yet it is often modeled as a continuous fluid. To capture discrete processes missed by continuum models, we built a simple model representing the ice pack as disks connected by breakable bonds. With fewer parameters and computational resources, our simple model reproduced some key dynamics simulated in higher-complexity models. This tool can be used by the community as a complement to higher-complexity modeling efforts.
Sammie Buzzard, Jonathan Elsey, and Alexander Robel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3247, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Melting ice on the surface of Antarctica's floating ice shelves can have important consequences for their stability. Meltwater can form lakes on the surface of the ice, which may cause the ice shelf to become unstable. Here we present the first 3-D model for the creation and movement of meltwater on ice shelf surfaces. We demonstrate the model's capabilities through a case study on the George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctica, and validate the results against satellite observations.
Brian Kyanjo, Talea L. Mayo, and Alexander A. Robel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2603.26947, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2603.26947, 2026
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We developed ICESEE, an open-source tool that helps scientists combine observations with physics-based models to better understand how ice sheets change over time. It improves estimates of current conditions and also helps identify hard-to-measure factors such as friction beneath the ice. Our tests indicate that it works efficiently on large computing systems and can be used with multiple models, making it useful for more reliable long-term studies of ice-sheet change and sea-level rise.
Paul T. Summers, Rebecca H. Jackson, and Alexander A. Robel
The Cryosphere, 19, 5135–5156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5135-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5135-2025, 2025
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We develop a method that allows numerical ocean models to include drag from icebergs, even for icebergs smaller than the model grid scale. This builds upon previous models that have either neglected iceberg drag or required higher resolution to model individual icebergs. We test our model against higher-resolution models, as well as models without iceberg drag, and show that including drag from icebergs is important for capturing realistic ocean circulation, temperature, and ice melt rates.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Lizz Ultee, Helene Seroussi, Andrew F. Thompson, Lars Ackermann, Youngmin Choi, and Uta Krebs-Kanzow
The Cryosphere, 19, 3749–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025, 2025
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This study examines how random variations in climate may influence future ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet. We find that random climate variations are important for predicting future ice loss from the entire Greenland ice sheet over the next 20–30 years but relatively unimportant after that period. Thus, uncertainty in sea level projections from the effect of climate variability on Greenland may play a role in coastal decision-making about sea level rise over the next few decades.
Samuel T. Kodama, Tamara Pico, Alexander A. Robel, John Erich Christian, Natalya Gomez, Casey Vigilia, Evelyn Powell, Jessica Gagliardi, Slawek Tulaczyk, and Terrence Blackburn
The Cryosphere, 19, 2935–2948, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2935-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2935-2025, 2025
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We predicted how sea level changed in the Ross Sea (Antarctica) due to glacial isostatic adjustment, or solid Earth ice sheet interactions, over the last deglaciation (20 000 years ago to present) and calculated how these changes in bathymetry impacted ice stream stability. Glacial isostatic adjustment shifts stability from where ice reached its maximum 20 000 years ago, at the continental shelf edge, to the modern grounding line today, reinforcing ice-age climate endmembers.
Ziad Rashed, Alexander A. Robel, and Hélène Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 19, 1775–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, 2025
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Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland's largest glacier, has significantly retreated since the late 1990s in response to warming ocean temperatures. Using a large-ensemble approach, our simulations show that the retreat is mainly initiated by the arrival of warm water but sustained and accelerated by the glacier's position over deeper bed troughs and vigorous calving. We highlight the need for models of ice mélange to project glacier behavior under rapid calving regimes.
Meghana Ranganathan, Alexander A. Robel, Alexander Huth, and Ravindra Duddu
The Cryosphere, 19, 1599–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1599-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1599-2025, 2025
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The rate of ice loss from ice sheets is controlled by the flow of ice from the center of the ice sheet and by the internal fracturing of the ice. These processes are coupled; fractures reduce the viscosity of ice and enable more rapid flow, and rapid flow causes the fracturing of ice. We present a simplified way of representing damage that is applicable to long-timescale flow estimates. Using this model, we find that including fracturing in an ice sheet simulation can increase the loss of ice by 13–29 %.
Jason M. Amundson, Alexander A. Robel, Justin C. Burton, and Kavinda Nissanka
The Cryosphere, 19, 19–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-19-2025, 2025
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Some fjords contain dense packs of icebergs referred to as ice mélange. Ice mélange can affect the stability of marine-terminating glaciers by resisting the calving of new icebergs and by modifying fjord currents and water properties. We have developed the first numerical model of ice mélange that captures its granular nature and that is suitable for long-timescale simulations. The model is capable of explaining why some glaciers are more strongly influenced by ice mélange than others.
Alexander A. Robel, Vincent Verjans, and Aminat A. Ambelorun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2613–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, 2024
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The average size of many glaciers and ice sheets changes when noise is added to the system. The reasons for this drift in glacier state is intrinsic to the dynamics of how ice flows and the bumpiness of the Earth's surface. We argue that not including noise in projections of ice sheet evolution over coming decades and centuries is a pervasive source of bias in these computer models, and so realistic variability in glacier and climate processes must be included in models.
Lizz Ultee, Alexander A. Robel, and Stefano Castruccio
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1041–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, 2024
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The surface mass balance (SMB) of an ice sheet describes the net gain or loss of mass from ice sheets (such as those in Greenland and Antarctica) through interaction with the atmosphere. We developed a statistical method to generate a wide range of SMB fields that reflect the best understanding of SMB processes. Efficiently sampling the variability of SMB will help us understand sources of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Helene Seroussi, Lizz Ultee, and Andrew F. Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8269–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, 2022
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We describe the development of the first large-scale ice sheet model that accounts for stochasticity in a range of processes. Stochasticity allows the impacts of inherently uncertain processes on ice sheets to be represented. This includes climatic uncertainty, as the climate is inherently chaotic. Furthermore, stochastic capabilities also encompass poorly constrained glaciological processes that display strong variability at fine spatiotemporal scales. We present the model and test experiments.
John Erich Christian, Alexander A. Robel, and Ginny Catania
The Cryosphere, 16, 2725–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022, 2022
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Marine-terminating glaciers have recently retreated dramatically, but the role of anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain. We use idealized model simulations to develop a framework for assessing the probability of rapid retreat in the context of natural climate variability. Our analyses show that century-scale anthropogenic trends can substantially increase the probability of retreats. This provides a roadmap for future work to formally assess the role of human activity in recent glacier change.
Alexander A. Robel, Earle Wilson, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 16, 451–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, 2022
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Warm seawater may intrude as a thin layer below glaciers in contact with the ocean. Mathematical theory predicts that this intrusion may extend over distances of kilometers under realistic conditions. Computer models demonstrate that if this warm seawater causes melting of a glacier bottom, it can cause rates of glacier ice loss and sea level rise to be up to 2 times faster in response to potential future ocean warming.
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Short summary
In this work, we simulate estuary-like seawater intrusions into the subglacial hydrologic system for marine outlet glaciers. We find the largest controls on seawater intrusion are the subglacial space geometry and meltwater discharge velocity. Further, we highlight the importance of extending ocean-forced ice loss to grounded portions of the ice sheet, which is currently not represented in models coupling ice sheets to ocean dynamics.
In this work, we simulate estuary-like seawater intrusions into the subglacial hydrologic system...
