Articles | Volume 19, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2935-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2935-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Aug 2025
Research article |
| 06 Aug 2025
| 06 Aug 2025
Impact of glacial isostatic adjustment on zones of potential grounding line persistence in the Ross Sea Embayment (Antarctica) since the Last Glacial Maximum
Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
Tamara Pico
Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
Alexander A. Robel
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
John Erich Christian
Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, USA
Natalya Gomez
Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, Québec, Canada
Casey Vigilia
Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
Evelyn Powell
Seismology, Geology and Tectonophysics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA
Jessica Gagliardi
Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
Slawek Tulaczyk
Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
Terrence Blackburn
Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Madeline S. Mamer, Alexander A. Robel, Chris C. K. Lai, Earle Wilson, and Peter Washam
The Cryosphere, 19, 3227–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3227-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3227-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we simulate estuary-like seawater intrusions into the subglacial hydrologic system for marine outlet glaciers. We find the largest controls on seawater intrusion are the subglacial space geometry and meltwater discharge velocity. Further, we highlight the importance of extending ocean-forced ice loss to grounded portions of the ice sheet, which is currently not represented in models coupling ice sheets to ocean dynamics.
Erica M. Lucas, Natalya Gomez, and Terry Wilson
The Cryosphere, 19, 2387–2405, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the effects of incorporating regional-scale lateral variability (ca. 50–100 km) in upper-mantle structure into models of Earth deformation and sea level change associated with ice mass changes in West Antarctica. Regional-scale variability in upper-mantle structure is found to impact relative sea level and crustal rate predictions for modern (last ca. 25–125 years) and projected (next ca. 300 years) ice mass changes, especially in coastal regions that undergo rapid ice mass loss.
Gavin Piccione, Terrence Blackburn, Paul Northrup, Slawek Tulaczyk, and Troy Rasbury
The Cryosphere, 19, 2247–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2247-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2247-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Growth of microorganisms in the Southern Ocean is limited by low iron levels. Iron delivered from beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one agent that fertilizes these ecosystems, but it is unclear how this nutrient source changes through time. Here, we measured the age and chemistry of a rock that records the iron concentration of Antarctic basal water. We show that increased dissolution of iron from rocks below the ice sheet can substantially enhance iron discharge during cold climate periods.
Paul T. Summers, Rebecca H. Jackson, and Alexander A. Robel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1555, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a method that allows numerical ocean models to include drag from icebergs, even for icebergs smaller than the model grid scale. This builds upon previous models that have either neglected iceberg drag, or required higher resolution to model individual icebergs. We test our model against higher resolution models, as well as models without iceberg drag, and show that including drag from icebergs is important for capturing realistic ocean circulation, temperature, and ice melt rates.
Ziad Rashed, Alexander A. Robel, and Hélène Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 19, 1775–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland's largest glacier, has significantly retreated since the late 1990s in response to warming ocean temperatures. Using a large-ensemble approach, our simulations show that the retreat is mainly initiated by the arrival of warm water but sustained and accelerated by the glacier's position over deeper bed troughs and vigorous calving. We highlight the need for models of ice mélange to project glacier behavior under rapid calving regimes.
Meghana Ranganathan, Alexander A. Robel, Alexander Huth, and Ravindra Duddu
The Cryosphere, 19, 1599–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1599-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1599-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The rate of ice loss from ice sheets is controlled by the flow of ice from the center of the ice sheet and by the internal fracturing of the ice. These processes are coupled; fractures reduce the viscosity of ice and enable more rapid flow, and rapid flow causes the fracturing of ice. We present a simplified way of representing damage that is applicable to long-timescale flow estimates. Using this model, we find that including fracturing in an ice sheet simulation can increase the loss of ice by 13–29 %.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Lizz Ultee, Helene Seroussi, Andrew F. Thompson, Lars Ackerman, Youngmin Choi, and Uta Krebs-Kanzow
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4067, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4067, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how random variations in climate may influence future ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that random climate variations are important for predicting future ice loss from the entire Greenland Ice Sheet over the next 20–30 years, but relatively unimportant after that period. Thus, uncertainty in sea level projections from the effect of climate variability on Greenland may play a role in coastal decision-making about sea level rise over the next few decades.
Jason M. Amundson, Alexander A. Robel, Justin C. Burton, and Kavinda Nissanka
The Cryosphere, 19, 19–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-19-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Some fjords contain dense packs of icebergs referred to as ice mélange. Ice mélange can affect the stability of marine-terminating glaciers by resisting the calving of new icebergs and by modifying fjord currents and water properties. We have developed the first numerical model of ice mélange that captures its granular nature and that is suitable for long-timescale simulations. The model is capable of explaining why some glaciers are more strongly influenced by ice mélange than others.
Natasha Valencic, Linda Pan, Konstantin Latychev, Natalya Gomez, Evelyn Powell, and Jerry X. Mitrovica
The Cryosphere, 18, 2969–2978, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the effect of ongoing Antarctic bedrock uplift due to Ice Age or modern ice mass changes on estimates of ice thickness changes obtained from satellite-based ice height measurements. We find that variations in the Ice Age signal introduce an uncertainty in estimates of total Antarctic ice change of up to ~10%. Moreover, the usual assumption that the mapping between modern ice height and thickness changes is uniform systematically underestimates net Antarctic ice volume changes.
Alexander A. Robel, Vincent Verjans, and Aminat A. Ambelorun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2613–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The average size of many glaciers and ice sheets changes when noise is added to the system. The reasons for this drift in glacier state is intrinsic to the dynamics of how ice flows and the bumpiness of the Earth's surface. We argue that not including noise in projections of ice sheet evolution over coming decades and centuries is a pervasive source of bias in these computer models, and so realistic variability in glacier and climate processes must be included in models.
Lizz Ultee, Alexander A. Robel, and Stefano Castruccio
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1041–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The surface mass balance (SMB) of an ice sheet describes the net gain or loss of mass from ice sheets (such as those in Greenland and Antarctica) through interaction with the atmosphere. We developed a statistical method to generate a wide range of SMB fields that reflect the best understanding of SMB processes. Efficiently sampling the variability of SMB will help us understand sources of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections.
Oliver G. Pollard, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Lauren J. Gregoire, Natalya Gomez, Víctor Cartelle, Jeremy C. Ely, and Lachlan C. Astfalck
The Cryosphere, 17, 4751–4777, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use advanced statistical techniques and a simple ice-sheet model to produce an ensemble of plausible 3D shapes of the ice sheet that once stretched across northern Europe during the previous glacial maximum (140,000 years ago). This new reconstruction, equivalent in volume to 48 ± 8 m of global mean sea-level rise, will improve the interpretation of high sea levels recorded from the Last Interglacial period (120 000 years ago) that provide a useful perspective on the future.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Helene Seroussi, Lizz Ultee, and Andrew F. Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8269–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the development of the first large-scale ice sheet model that accounts for stochasticity in a range of processes. Stochasticity allows the impacts of inherently uncertain processes on ice sheets to be represented. This includes climatic uncertainty, as the climate is inherently chaotic. Furthermore, stochastic capabilities also encompass poorly constrained glaciological processes that display strong variability at fine spatiotemporal scales. We present the model and test experiments.
John Erich Christian, Alexander A. Robel, and Ginny Catania
The Cryosphere, 16, 2725–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Marine-terminating glaciers have recently retreated dramatically, but the role of anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain. We use idealized model simulations to develop a framework for assessing the probability of rapid retreat in the context of natural climate variability. Our analyses show that century-scale anthropogenic trends can substantially increase the probability of retreats. This provides a roadmap for future work to formally assess the role of human activity in recent glacier change.
Jeannette Xiu Wen Wan, Natalya Gomez, Konstantin Latychev, and Holly Kyeore Han
The Cryosphere, 16, 2203–2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2203-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2203-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the grid resolution necessary to accurately model the Earth deformation and sea-level change associated with West Antarctic ice mass changes. We find that results converge at higher resolutions, and errors of less than 5 % can be achieved with a 7.5 km grid. Our results also indicate that error due to grid resolution is negligible compared to the effect of neglecting viscous deformation in low-viscosity regions.
Holly Kyeore Han, Natalya Gomez, and Jeannette Xiu Wen Wan
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1355–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1355-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Interactions between ice sheets, sea level and the solid Earth occur over a range of timescales from years to tens of thousands of years. This requires coupled ice-sheet–sea-level models to exchange information frequently, leading to a quadratic increase in computation time with the number of model timesteps. We present a new sea-level model algorithm that allows coupled models to improve the computational feasibility and precisely capture short-term interactions within longer simulations.
Alexander A. Robel, Earle Wilson, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 16, 451–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Warm seawater may intrude as a thin layer below glaciers in contact with the ocean. Mathematical theory predicts that this intrusion may extend over distances of kilometers under realistic conditions. Computer models demonstrate that if this warm seawater causes melting of a glacier bottom, it can cause rates of glacier ice loss and sea level rise to be up to 2 times faster in response to potential future ocean warming.
Tamara Pico, Jane Willenbring, April S. Dalton, and Sidney Hemming
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-132, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We present data from fieldwork completed in 2002 for a glacial lake in the Torngat Mountains (Northern Quebec and Labrador, Canada). We dated the lake to ~56 ± 3 ka and estimated the freshwater volume that may have been released during an outburst flood. The location of this glacial lake is surprising because the Torngat Mountains are considered a site of glacial inception, and this shoreline suggests the region was not ice-covered throughout the North American ice sheet growth phase.
David J. Purnell, Natalya Gomez, William Minarik, David Porter, and Gregory Langston
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 673–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-673-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-673-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new technique for precisely monitoring water levels (e.g. sea level, rivers or lakes) using low-cost equipment (approximately USD 100–200) that is simple to build and install. The technique builds on previous work using antennas that were designed for navigation purposes. Multiple antennas in the same location are used to obtain more precise measurements than those obtained when using a single antenna. Software for analysis is provided with the article.
Cited articles
Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R., and Levermann, A.: Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) – Part 2: Parameter ensemble analysis, The Cryosphere, 14, 633–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020, 2020.
Albrecht, T., Bagge, M., and Klemann, V.: Feedback mechanisms controlling Antarctic glacial-cycle dynamics simulated with a coupled ice sheet–solid Earth model, The Cryosphere, 18, 4233–4255, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, 2024.
Anderson, J. B., Conway, H., Bart, P. J., Witus, A. E., Greenwood, S. L., McKay, R. M., Hall, B. L., Ackert, R. P., Licht, K., Jakobsson, M., and Stone, J. O.: Ross Sea paleo-ice sheet drainage and deglacial history during and since the LGM, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 100, 31–54, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.08.020, 2014.
Balco, G., Brown, N., Nichols, K., Venturelli, R. A., Adams, J., Braddock, S., Campbell, S., Goehring, B., Johnson, J. S., Rood, D. H., Wilcken, K., Hall, B., and Woodward, J.: Reversible ice sheet thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment during the Late Holocene, The Cryosphere, 17, 1787–1801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1787-2023, 2023.
Bart, P. J. and Tulaczyk, S.: A significant acceleration of ice volume discharge preceded a major retreat of a West Antarctic paleo-ice stream, Geology, 48, 313–317, https://doi.org/10.1130/G46916.1, 2020.
Bart, P. J., DeCesare, M., Rosenheim, B. E., Majewski, W., and McGlannan, A.: A centuries-long delay between a paleo-ice-shelf collapse and grounding-line retreat in the Whales Deep Basin, eastern Ross Sea, Antarctica, Sci. Rep., 8, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-29911-8, 2018.
Bueler, E. and Brown, J.: Shallow shelf approximation as a “sliding law” in a thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 114, F03008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001179, 2009.
Buizert, C., Cuffey, K. M., Severinghaus, J. P., Baggenstos, D., Fudge, T. J., Steig, E. J., Markle, B. R., Winstrup, M., Rhodes, R. H., Brook, E. J., Sowers, T. A., Clow, G. D., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Sigl, M., McConnell, J. R., and Taylor, K. C.: The WAIS Divide deep ice core WD2014 chronology – Part 1: Methane synchronization (68–31 ka BP) and the gas age–ice age difference, Clim. Past, 11, 153–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-153-2015, 2015.
Cavitte, M. G. P., Parrenin, F., Ritz, C., Young, D. A., Van Liefferinge, B., Blankenship, D. D., Frezzotti, M., and Roberts, J. L.: Accumulation patterns around Dome C, East Antarctica, in the last 73 kyr, The Cryosphere, 12, 1401–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1401-2018, 2018.
Clark, P. U. and Tarasov, L.: Closing the sea level budget at the Last Glacial Maximum, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 15861–15862, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1418970111, 2014.
Clark, P. U., Dyke, A. S., Shakun, J. D., Carlson, A. E., Clark, J., Wohlfarth, B., Mitrovica, J. X., Hostetler, S. W., and McCabe, A. M.: The Last Glacial Maximum, Science, 325, 710–714, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172873, 2009.
Danielson, M. A. and Bart, P. J.: The staggered retreat of grounded ice in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), The Cryosphere, 18, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, 2024.
de Boer, B., Stocchi, P., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: A fully coupled 3-D ice-sheet–sea-level model: algorithm and applications, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2141–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, 2014.
Deschamps, P., Durand, N., Bard, E., Hamelin, B., Camoin, G., Thomas, A. L., Henderson, G. M., Okuno, J., and Yokoyama, Y.: Ice-sheet collapse and sea-level rise at the Bølling warming 14,600 years ago, Nature, 483, 559–564, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10902, 2012.
Golledge, N. R., Menviel, L., Carter, L., Fogwill, C. J., England, M. H., Cortese, G., and Levy, R. H.: Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A from reduced Southern Ocean overturning, Nat. Commun., 5, 5107, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6107, 2014.
Gomez, N., Pollard, D., and Mitrovica, J. X.: A 3-D coupled ice sheet – sea level model applied to Antarctica through the last 40 ky, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 384, 88–99, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.09.042, 2013.
Gomez, N., Pollard, D., and Holland, D.: Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss, Nat. Commun., 6, 8798, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9798, 2015.
Gomez, N., Latychev, K., and Pollard, D.: A coupled ice sheet-sea level model incorporating 3D earth structure: Variations in Antarctica during the Last Deglacial Retreat, J. Climate, 31, 4041–4054, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0352.1, 2018.
Gomez, N., Weber, M. E., Clark, P. U., Mitrovica, J. X., and Han, H. K.: Antarctic ice dynamics amplified by Northern Hemisphere sea-level forcing, Nature, 587, 600–604, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2916-2, 2020.
Greenwood, S. L., Simkins, L. M., Halberstadt, A. R. W., Prothro, L. O., and Anderson, J. B.: Holocene reconfiguration and readvance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, Nat. Commun., 9, 3176, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05625-3, 2018.
Halberstadt, A. R. W., Simkins, L. M., Greenwood, S. L., and Anderson, J. B.: Past ice-sheet behaviour: retreat scenarios and changing controls in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 10, 1003–1020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1003-2016, 2016.
Haseloff, M. and Sergienko, O. V.: The effect of buttressing on grounding line dynamics, J. Glaciol., 64, 417–431, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.30, 2018.
Houriez, L., Larour, E., Caron, L., Schlegel, N.-J., Adhikari, S., Ivins, E., Pelle, T., Seroussi, H., Darve, E., and Fischer, M.: Capturing Solid Earth and Ice Sheet Interactions: Insights from Reinforced Ridges in Thwaites Glacier, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4136, 2025.
Jamieson, S. S. R., Vieli, A., Livingstone, S. J., Cofaigh, C. Ó., Stokes, C., Hillenbrand, C.-D., and Dowdeswell, J. A.: Ice-stream stability on a reverse bed slope, Nat. Geosci., 5, 799–802, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1600, 2012.
Johnston, P.: The effect of spatially non-uniform water loads on prediction of sea-level change, Geophys. J. Int., 114, 615–634, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1993.tb06992.x, 1993.
Jones, R. S., Gudmundsson, G. H., Mackintosh, A. N., McCormack, F. S., and Whitmore, R. J.: Ocean-Driven and Topography-Controlled Nonlinear Glacier Retreat During the Holocene: Southwestern Ross Sea, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091454, 2021.
Kendall, R. A., Mitrovica, J. X., and Milne, G. A.: On post-glacial sea level – II. Numerical formulation and comparative results on spherically symmetric models, Geophys. J. Int., 161, 679–706, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02553.x, 2005.
Kingslake, J., Scherer, R. P., Albrecht, T., Coenen, J., Powell, R. D., Reese, R., Stansell, N. D., Tulaczyk, S., Wearing, M. G., and Whitehouse, P. L.: Extensive retreat and re-advance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Holocene, Nature, 558, 430–434, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0208-x, 2018.
Kodama, S., Pico, T., Robel, A., Christian, J. E., Gomez, N., Vigilia, C., Powell, E., Gagliardi, J., Tulaczyk, S., and Blackburne, T.: Output for “Impact of glacial isostatic adjustment on zones of potential grounding line persistence in the Ross Sea Embayment (Antarctica) since the Last Glacial Maximum” in the Cryosphere, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15311008, 2025.
Konrad, H., Sasgen, I., Pollard, D., and Klemann, V.: Potential of the solid-Earth response for limiting long-term West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in a warming climate, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 432, 254–264, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.10.008, 2015.
Lambeck, K., Purcell, A., Johnston, P., Nakada, M., and Yokoyama, Y.: Water-load definition in the glacio-hydro-isostatic sea-level equation, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 22, 309–318, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(02)00142-7, 2003.
Lambeck, K., Rouby, H., Purcell, A., Sun, Y., and Sambridge, M.: Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 15296–15303, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1411762111, 2014.
Lee, J. I., McKay, R. M., Golledge, N. R., Yoon, H. I., Yoo, K.-C., Kim, H. J., and Hong, J. K.: Widespread persistence of expanded East Antarctic glaciers in the southwest Ross Sea during the last deglaciation, Geology, 45, 403–406, https://doi.org/10.1130/G38715.1, 2017.
Lin, Y., Hibbert, F. D., Whitehouse, P. L., Woodroffe, S. A., Purcell, A., Shennan, I., and Bradley, S. L.: A reconciled solution of Meltwater Pulse 1A sources using sea-level fingerprinting, Nat. Commun., 12, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21990-y, 2021.
Lowry, D. P., Han, H. K., Golledge, N. R., Gomez, N., Johnson, K. M., and McKay, R. M.: Ocean cavity regime shift reversed West Antarctic grounding line retreat in the late Holocene, Nat. Commun., 15, 3176, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-47369-3, 2024.
McKenzie, M. A., Miller, L. E., Slawson, J. S., MacKie, E. J., and Wang, S.: Differential impact of isolated topographic bumps on ice sheet flow and subglacial processes, The Cryosphere, 17, 2477–2486, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2477-2023, 2023.
Milne, G. A. and Mitrovica, J. X.: Postglacial sea-level change on a rotating Earth: first results from a gravitationally self-consistent sea-level equation, Geophys. J. Int., 133, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.1998.1331455.x, 1996.
Milne, G. A., Mitrovica, J. X., and Davis, J. L.: Near-field hydro-isostasy: The implementation of a revised sea-level equation, Geophys. J. Int., 139, 464–482, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.1999.00971.x, 1999.
Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Binder, T., Blankenship, D., Drews, R., Eagles, G., Eisen, O., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fretwell, P., Goel, V., Greenbaum, J. S., Gudmundsson, H., Guo, J., Helm, V., Hofstede, C., Howat, I., Humbert, A., Jokat, W., Karlsson, N. B., Lee, W. S., Matsuoka, K., Millan, R., Mouginot, J., Paden, J., Pattyn, F., Roberts, J., Rosier, S., Ruppel, A., Seroussi, H., Smith, E. C., Steinhage, D., Sun, B., Broeke, M. R. van den, Ommen, T. D. van, Wessem, M. van, and Young, D. A.: Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet, Nat. Geosci., 13, 132–137, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8, 2020.
Neuhaus, S. U., Tulaczyk, S. M., Stansell, N. D., Coenen, J. J., Scherer, R. P., Mikucki, J. A., and Powell, R. D.: Did Holocene climate changes drive West Antarctic grounding line retreat and readvance?, The Cryosphere, 15, 4655–4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4655-2021, 2021.
Nichols, K. A., Adams, J. R., Brown, K., Creel, R. C., McKenzie, M. A., Venturelli, R. A., Johnson, J. S., Rood, D. H., Wilcken, K., Woodward, J., and Roberts, S. J.: Direct Geologic Constraints on the Timing of Late Holocene Ice Thickening in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL110350, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110350, 2024.
Nield, G. A., Whitehouse, P. L., King, M. A., and Clarke, P. J.: Glacial isostatic adjustment in response to changing Late Holocene behaviour of ice streams on the Siple Coast, West Antarctica, Geophysical Journal International, 205, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggv532, 2016.
Peltier, W. R., Argus, D. F., and Drummond, R.: Space geodesy constrains ice age terminal deglaciation: The global ICE-6G_C (VM5a) model, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 120, 450–487, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JB011176, 2015.
Pittard, M. L., Whitehouse, P. L., Bentley, M. J., and Small, D.: An ensemble of Antarctic deglacial simulations constrained by geological observations, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 298, 107800, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107800, 2022.
Pollard, D., Gomez, N., and Deconto, R. M.: Variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in a Coupled Ice Sheet-Earth-Sea Level Model: Sensitivity to Viscoelastic Earth Properties, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 122, 2124–2138, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004371, 2017.
Prothro, L. O., Majewski, W., Yokoyama, Y., Simkins, L. M., Anderson, J. B., Yamane, M., Miyairi, Y., and Ohkouchi, N.: Timing and pathways of East Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 230, 106166, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106166, 2020.
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Ice Flow of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Science, 333, 1427–1430, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1208336, 2011.
Robel, A. A.: SSAsimpleM, Github [code], https://github.com/aarobel/SSAsimpleM (last access: February 2023), 2021.
Robel, A. A., Roe, G. H., and Haseloff, M.: Response of Marine-Terminating Glaciers to Forcing: Time Scales, Sensitivities, Instabilities, and Stochastic Dynamics, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 123, 2205–2227, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004709, 2018.
Robel, A. A., Pegler, S. S., Catania, G., Felikson, D., and Simkins, L. M.: Ambiguous stability of glaciers at bed peaks, J. Glaciol., 68, 1177–1184, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.31, 2022.
Rutt, I. C., Hagdorn, M., Hulton, N. R. J., and Payne, A. J.: The Glimmer community ice sheet model, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 114, F02004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001015, 2009.
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, F03S28, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664, 2007.
Schoof, C.: Marine ice sheet stability, J. Fluid Mech., 698, 62–72, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2012.43, 2012.
Sergienko, O. and Haseloff, M.: “Stable” and “unstable” are not useful descriptions of marine ice sheets in the Earth's climate system, J. Glaciol., 69, 1483–1499, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.40, 2023.
Simkins, L. M., Greenwood, S. L., and Anderson, J. B.: Diagnosing ice sheet grounding line stability from landform morphology, The Cryosphere, 12, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2707-2018, 2018.
Simms, A. R., Lisiecki, L., Gebbie, G., Whitehouse, P. L., and Clark, J. F.: Balancing the last glacial maximum (LGM) sea-level budget, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 205, 143–153, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.12.018, 2019.
van Calcar, C. J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Blank, B., de Boer, B., and van der Wal, W.: Simulation of a fully coupled 3D glacial isostatic adjustment – ice sheet model for the Antarctic ice sheet over a glacial cycle, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5473–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, 2023.
Venturelli, R. A., Siegfried, M. R., Roush, K. A., Li, W., Burnett, J., Zook, R., Fricker, H. A., Priscu, J. C., Leventer, A., and Rosenheim, B. E.: Mid-Holocene Grounding Line Retreat and Readvance at Whillans Ice Stream, West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL088476, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088476, 2020.
Whitehouse, P. L., Bentley, M. J., and Le Brocq, A. M.: A deglacial model for Antarctica: Geological constraints and glaciological modelling as a basis for a new model of Antarctic glacial isostatic adjustment, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 32, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.11.016, 2012.
Short summary
We predicted how sea level changed in the Ross Sea (Antarctica) due to glacial isostatic adjustment, or solid Earth ice sheet interactions, over the last deglaciation (20 000 years ago to present) and calculated how these changes in bathymetry impacted ice stream stability. Glacial isostatic adjustment shifts stability from where ice reached its maximum 20 000 years ago, at the continental shelf edge, to the modern grounding line today, reinforcing ice-age climate endmembers.
We predicted how sea level changed in the Ross Sea (Antarctica) due to glacial isostatic...
