Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2527-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2527-2025
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
14 Jul 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 14 Jul 2025

Calibrated sea level contribution from the Amundsen Sea sector, West Antarctica, under RCP8.5 and Paris 2C scenarios

Sebastian H. R. Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Adrian Jenkins, and Kaitlin A. Naughten

Data sets

Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model simulations 2021-2300 forced with Paris2C and RCP8.5 climate scenarios S. H. R. Rosier https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14712131

Model code and software

GHilmarG/UaSource: Ua2023b G. Gudmundsson https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10829346

Uncertainty quantification code for ASE ice sheet model projections S. H. R. Rosier https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11922614

Download
Co-editor-in-chief
This manuscript investigates the Amundsen Sea region in West Antarctica. The region has been the focus of numerous studies in recent years since the glaciers of the Amundsen Sea are a major source of uncertainty for global sea level rise projections. In this study, the authors use ice-sheet model simulations to investigate the region's response to climate change (specifically, scenarios RCP8.5 and Paris2C). Their results indicate that the region will have contributed approximately 19 mm of sea-level rise by 2100. The authors do not find any indication of rapid retreat or an unstable calving front. Although the ice shelf area significantly decreases in their model simulations, this has little effect on the ice dynamic mass loss. Thus, the manuscript results indicate that by the year 2100, the sea-level contribution from the Amundsen Sea area is almost an order of magnitude less than those estimated by previous studies.
Short summary
Glaciers in the Amundsen Sea region of Antarctica have been retreating and losing mass, but their future contribution to global sea level rise remains highly uncertain. We use an ice sheet model and uncertainty quantification methods to evaluate the probable range of mass loss from this region for two future climate scenarios. We find that the rate of ice loss until 2100 will likely remain similar to present-day observations, with little sensitivity to climate scenario over this short time frame.
Share