Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1085-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1085-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Mar 2025
Research article |
| 11 Mar 2025
| 11 Mar 2025
Larger lake outbursts despite glacier thinning at ice-dammed Desolation Lake, Alaska
Natalie Lützow
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, 14476, Germany
Bretwood Higman
Ground Truth Alaska, Seldovia, AK, USA
Martin Truffer
Geophysical Institute and Department of Physics, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Bodo Bookhagen
Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam-Golm, Germany
Friedrich Knuth
University of Washington, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seattle, WA, USA
Oliver Korup
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, 14476, Germany
Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam-Golm, Germany
Katie E. Hughes
Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, Aotearoa / New Zealand
Marten Geertsema
Ministry of Forests, Prince George, BC, Canada
John J. Clague
Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
Georg Veh
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, 14476, Germany
Related authors
Natalie Lützow, Georg Veh, and Oliver Korup
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2983–3000, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2983-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2983-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a prominent natural hazard, and climate change may change their magnitude, frequency, and impacts. A global, literature-based GLOF inventory is introduced, entailing 3151 reported GLOFs. The reporting density varies temporally and regionally, with most cases occurring in NW North America. Since 1900, the number of yearly documented GLOFs has increased 6-fold. However, many GLOFs have incomplete records, and we call for a systematic reporting protocol.
Vito Chan, Aljoscha Rheinwalt, and Bodo Bookhagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4003, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth Surface Dynamics (ESurf).
Short summary
Short summary
OrthoSAM is a new method that uses Segment Anything Model (SAM) to automatically identify and outline individual pebbles in high-resolution aerial images. OrthoSAM divides large photos into smaller sections that SAM can process effectively, and it improves the way to tell SAM where to look for objects. It uses a multi-resolution approach to handle different sizes, and it can be used to determine the distribution. Tests with computer-generated images and field data show that it is very precise.
Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Brandon S. Tober, Michael Daniel, Victor Devaux-Chupin, Michael S. Christoffersen, John W. Holt, Christopher F. Larsen, Mark Fahnestock, Michael G. Loso, Kristin M. F. Timm, Russell C. Mitchell, and Martin Truffer
The Cryosphere, 19, 2321–2353, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2321-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2321-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Sít' Tlein is one of the largest glaciers in the world outside of the polar regions, and we know that it has been rapidly thinning. To forecast how this glacier will change in the future, we combine a computer model of ice flow with measurements from many different sources. Our model tells us that with high probability, Sít' Tlein's lower reaches are going to disappear in the next century and a half, creating a new bay or lake along Alaska's coastline.
Jane Walden, Mylène Jacquemart, Bretwood Higman, Romain Hugonnet, Andrea Manconi, and Daniel Farinotti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2045–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2045-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2045-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied eight glacier-adjacent landslides in Alaska and found that slope movement increased at four sites as the glacier retreated past the landslide area. Movement at other sites may be due to heavy precipitation or increased glacier thinning, and two sites showed little to no motion. We suggest that landslides near waterbodies may be especially vulnerable to acceleration, which we guess is due to faster retreat rates of water-terminating glaciers and changing water flow in the slope.
Aljoscha Rheinwalt, Benjamin Purinton, and Bodo Bookhagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1110, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study presents a computer-based method to detect and measure pebbles in 3D models reconstructed from camera photos. We tested it in a controlled setup and achieved 98 % accuracy in detecting pebbles. Unlike traditional 2D methods, our approach provides full 3D size and orientation data. This improves sediment analysis and riverbed studies by offering more precise measurements. Our work highlights the potential of 3D modeling for studying natural surfaces.
Miaomiao Qi, Shiyin Liu, Zhifang Zhao, Yongpeng Gao, Fuming Xie, Georg Veh, Letian Xiao, Jinlong Jing, Yu Zhu, and Kunpeng Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 969–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-969-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-969-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Here we propose a new mathematically robust and cost-effective model to improve glacial lake water storage estimation. We have also provided a dataset of measured water storage in glacial lakes through field depth measurements. Our model incorporates an automated calculation process and outperforms previous ones, achieving an average relative error of only 14 %. This research offers a valuable tool for researchers seeking to improve the risk assessment of glacial lake outburst floods.
Amy Jenson, Mark Skidmore, Lucas Beem, Martin Truffer, and Scott McCalla
The Cryosphere, 18, 5451–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5451-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5451-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Water in some glacier environments contains salt, which increases its density and lowers its freezing point, allowing saline water to exist where freshwater cannot. Previous subglacial hydrology models do not consider saline fluid. We model the flow of saline fluid from a subglacial lake through a circular channel at the glacier bed, finding that higher salinities lead to less melting at the channel walls and lower discharge rates. We also observe the impact of increased fluid density on flow.
Ariane Mueting and Bodo Bookhagen
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1121–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the use of optical PlanetScope data for offset tracking of the Earth's surface movement. We found that co-registration accuracy is locally degraded when outdated elevation models are used for orthorectification. To mitigate this bias, we propose to only correlate scenes acquired from common perspectives or base orthorectification on more up-to-date elevation models generated from PlanetScope data alone. This enables a more detailed analysis of landslide dynamics.
Gabriela Collao-Barrios, Ted A. Scambos, Christian T. Wild, Martin Truffer, Karen E. Alley, and Erin C. Pettit
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1895, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Destabilization of ice shelves frequently leads to significant acceleration and greater mass loss, affecting rates of sea level rise. Our results show a relation between tides, flow direction, and grounding-zone acceleration that result from changing stresses in the ice margins and around a nunatak in Dotson Ice Shelf. The study describes a new way tides can influence ice shelf dynamics, an effect that could become more common as ice shelves thin and weaken around Antarctica.
Naomi E. Ochwat, Ted A. Scambos, Alison F. Banwell, Robert S. Anderson, Michelle L. Maclennan, Ghislain Picard, Julia A. Shates, Sebastian Marinsek, Liliana Margonari, Martin Truffer, and Erin C. Pettit
The Cryosphere, 18, 1709–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1709-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On the Antarctic Peninsula, there is a small bay that had sea ice fastened to the shoreline (
fast ice) for over a decade. The fast ice stabilized the glaciers that fed into the ocean. In January 2022, the fast ice broke away. Using satellite data we found that this was because of low sea ice concentrations and a high long-period ocean wave swell. We find that the glaciers have responded to this event by thinning, speeding up, and retreating by breaking off lots of icebergs at remarkable rates.
Monika Pfau, Georg Veh, and Wolfgang Schwanghart
The Cryosphere, 17, 3535–3551, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3535-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cast shadows have been a recurring problem in remote sensing of glaciers. We show that the length of shadows from surrounding mountains can be used to detect gains or losses in glacier elevation.
Natalie Lützow, Georg Veh, and Oliver Korup
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2983–3000, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2983-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2983-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a prominent natural hazard, and climate change may change their magnitude, frequency, and impacts. A global, literature-based GLOF inventory is introduced, entailing 3151 reported GLOFs. The reporting density varies temporally and regionally, with most cases occurring in NW North America. Since 1900, the number of yearly documented GLOFs has increased 6-fold. However, many GLOFs have incomplete records, and we call for a systematic reporting protocol.
Marin Kneib, Evan S. Miles, Pascal Buri, Stefan Fugger, Michael McCarthy, Thomas E. Shaw, Zhao Chuanxi, Martin Truffer, Matthew J. Westoby, Wei Yang, and Francesca Pellicciotti
The Cryosphere, 16, 4701–4725, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cliffs are believed to be important contributors to the melt of debris-covered glaciers, but this has rarely been quantified as the cliffs can disappear or rapidly expand within a few weeks. We used photogrammetry techniques to quantify the weekly evolution and melt of four cliffs. We found that their behaviour and melt during the monsoon is strongly controlled by supraglacial debris, streams and ponds, thus providing valuable insights on the melt and evolution of debris-covered glaciers.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Christian T. Wild, Karen E. Alley, Atsuhiro Muto, Martin Truffer, Ted A. Scambos, and Erin C. Pettit
The Cryosphere, 16, 397–417, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-397-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-397-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Thwaites Glacier has the potential to significantly raise Antarctica's contribution to global sea-level rise by the end of this century. Here, we use satellite measurements of surface elevation to show that its floating part is close to losing contact with an underwater ridge that currently acts to stabilize. We then use computer models of ice flow to simulate the predicted unpinning, which show that accelerated ice discharge into the ocean follows the breakup of the floating part.
Andy Aschwanden, Timothy C. Bartholomaus, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, and Martin Truffer
The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating how much ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to sea level rise is of critical societal importance. However, our analysis shows that recent efforts are not trustworthy because the models fail at reproducing contemporary ice melt. Here we present a roadmap towards making more credible estimates of ice sheet melt.
Karen E. Alley, Christian T. Wild, Adrian Luckman, Ted A. Scambos, Martin Truffer, Erin C. Pettit, Atsuhiro Muto, Bruce Wallin, Marin Klinger, Tyler Sutterley, Sarah F. Child, Cyrus Hulen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Michelle Maclennan, Eric Keenan, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 15, 5187–5203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a 20-year, satellite-based record of velocity and thickness change on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS), the largest remaining floating extension of Thwaites Glacier (TG). TG holds the single greatest control on sea-level rise over the next few centuries, so it is important to understand changes on the TEIS, which controls much of TG's flow into the ocean. Our results suggest that the TEIS is progressively destabilizing and is likely to disintegrate over the next few decades.
Melanie Fischer, Oliver Korup, Georg Veh, and Ariane Walz
The Cryosphere, 15, 4145–4163, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the greater Himalayan region threaten local communities and infrastructure. We assess this hazard objectively using fully data-driven models. We find that lake and catchment area, as well as regional glacier-mass balance, credibly raised the susceptibility of a glacial lake in our study area to produce a sudden outburst. However, our models hardly support the widely held notion that rapid lake growth increases GLOF susceptibility.
Cited articles
Agisoft: Agisoft Metashape version 1.6.0, Agisoft [software], http://www.agisoft.com/downloads/installer/ (last access: 31 December 2019), 2019.
Anderson, S. P., Walder, J. S., Anderson, R. S., Kraal, E. R., Cunico, M., Fountain, A. G., and Trabant, D. C.: Integrated hydrologic and hydrochemical observations of Hidden Creek Lake jökulhlaups, Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 108, 6003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JF000004, 2003.
Arimitsu, M. L., Piatt, J. F., and Mueter, F.: Influence of glacier runoff on ecosystem structure in Gulf of Alaska fjords, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 560, 19–40, https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11888, 2016.
Benn, D. and Evans, D. J. A.: Glaciers and glaciation, 2nd edn., Routledge, ISBN 9780340905791, 2010.
Bien, J.: Alaskan Boundary Sheet #16, NOAA's Office of Coast Survey Historical Map & Chart Collection, https://historicalcharts.noaa.gov/ (last access: 16 August 2022), 1903.
Bigelow, D. G., Flowers, G. E., Schoof, C. G., Mingo, L. D. B., Young, E. M., and Connal, B. G.: The role of englacial hydrology in the filling and drainage of an ice-dammed lake, Kaskawulsh Glacier, Yukon, Canada, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 125, e2019JF005110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005110, 2020.
Carrivick, J. L. and Tweed, F. S.: A global assessment of the societal impacts of glacier outburst floods, Global Planet. Change, 144, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.001, 2016.
Carrivick, J. L., Tweed, F. S., Ng, F., Quincey, D. J., Mallalieu, J., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Mikkelsen, A. B., Palmer, S. J., Yde, J. C., Homer, R., Russell, A. J., and Hubbard, A.: Ice-dammed lake drainage evolution at Russell Glacier, West Greenland, Front. Earth Sci., 5, 100, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00100, 2017.
Chen, Y. and Medioni, G.: Object modelling by registration of multiple range images, Image Vision Comput., 10, 145–155, https://doi.org/10.1016/0262-8856(92)90066-C, 1992.
Clague, J. J. and O'Connor, J. E.: Chapter 14 – Glacier-related outburst floods, in: Snow and Ice-Related Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, 2nd edn., edited by: Haeberli, W. and Whiteman, C., Elsevier, 467–499, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-817129-5.00019-6, 2021.
Clarke, G. K. C.: Glacier outburst floods from “Hazard Lake”, Yukon Territory, and the problem of flood magnitude prediction, J. Glaciol., 28, 3–21, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000011746, 1982.
CloudCompare: Cloud-Compare version 2.12.3, CloudCompare [software], https://www.danielgm.net/cc/ (last access: 14 June 2022), 2022.
Dømgaard, M., Kjeldsen, K. K., Huiban, F., Carrivick, J. L., Khan, S. A., and Bjørk, A. A.: Recent changes in drainage route and outburst magnitude of the Russell Glacier ice-dammed lake, West Greenland, The Cryosphere, 17, 1373–1387, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1373-2023, 2023.
Evans, S. G. and Clague, J. J.: Recent climatic change and catastrophic geomorphic processes in mountain environments, in: Geomorphology and Natural Hazards, edited by: Morisawa, M., Elsevier, Amsterdam, 107–128, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-82012-9.50012-8, 1994.
Geertsema, M. and Clague, J. J.: Jökulhlaups at Tulsequah Glacier, northwestern British Columbia, Canada, The Holocene, 15, 310–316, https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683605hl812rr, 2005.
Geertsema, M., Menounos, B., Bullard, G., Carrivick, J. L., Clague, J. J., Dai, C., Donati, D., Ekstrom, G., Jackson, J. M., Lynett, P., Pichierri, M., Pon, A., Shugar, D. H., Stead, D., Del Bel Belluz, J., Friele, P., Giesbrecht, I., Heathfield, D., Millard, T., Nasonova, S., Schaeffer, A. J., Ward, B. C., Blaney, D., Blaney, E., Brillon, C., Bunn, C., Floyd, W., Higman, B., Hughes, K. E., McInnes, W., Mukherjee, K., and Sharp, M. A.: The 28 November 2020 landslide, tsunami, and outburst flood – A hazard cascade associated with rapid deglaciation at Elliot Creek, British Columbia, Canada, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL096716, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096716, 2022.
Google Earth Engine Data Catalog: https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/landsat, last access: 1 December 2023.
Grinsted, A., Hvidberg, C. S., Campos, N., and Dahl-Jensen, D.: Periodic outburst floods from an ice-dammed lake in East Greenland, Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 9966, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07960-9, 2017.
Hallet, B., Hunter, L., and Bogen, J.: Rates of erosion and sediment evacuation by glaciers: A review of field data and their implications, Global Planet. Change, 12, 213–235, https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(95)00021-6, 1996.
Hata, S., Sugiyama, S., and Heki, K.: Abrupt drainage of Lago Greve, a large proglacial lake in Chilean Patagonia, observed by satellite in 2020, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 190, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00531-5, 2022.
Hock, R., Rasul, G., Adler, C., Cáceres, B., Gruber, S., Hirabayashi, Y., Jackson, M., Kääb, A., Kang, S., Kutuzov, S., Milner, A., Molau, U., Morin, S., Orlove, B., and Steltzer, H.: High mountain areas, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.004, 2019.
Höhle, J. and Höhle, M.: Accuracy assessment of digital elevation models by means of robust statistical methods, ISPRS J. Photogramm., 64, 398–406, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2009.02.003, 2009.
Hugonnet, R., McNabb, R., Berthier, E., Menounos, B., Nuth, C., Girod, L., Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Dussaillant, I., Brun, F., and Kääb, A.: Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century, Nature, 592, 726–731, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03436-z, 2021.
Huss, M.: Density assumptions for converting geodetic glacier volume change to mass change, The Cryosphere, 7, 877–887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-877-2013, 2013.
Huss, M. and Hock, R.: Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 135–140, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x, 2018.
Huss, M., Bauder, A., Werder, M., Funk, M., and Hock, R.: Glacier-dammed lake outburst events of Gornersee, Switzerland, J. Glaciol., 53, 189–200, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756507782202784, 2007.
Jansson, P., Hock, R., and Schneider, T.: The concept of glacier storage: a review, J. Hydrol., 282, 116–129, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00258-0, 2003.
Jordan, G. F.: Redistribution of sediments in Alaskan bays and inlets, Geogr. Rev., 52, 548–558, https://doi.org/10.2307/212613, 1962.
Kääb, A., Berthier, E., Nuth, C., Gardelle, J., and Arnaud, Y.: Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas, Nature, 488, 495–498, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11324, 2012.
Kienholz, C., Pierce, J., Hood, E., Amundson, J. M., Wolken, G. J., Jacobs, A., Hart, S., Wikstrom Jones, K., Abdel-Fattah, D., Johnson, C., and Conaway, J. S.: Deglacierization of a marginal basin and implications for outburst floods, Mendenhall Glacier, Alaska, Front. Earth Sci., 8, 137, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00137, 2020.
Kjeldsen, K. K., Khan, S. A., Bjørk, A. A., Nielsen, K., and Mouginot, J.: Ice-dammed lake drainage in west Greenland: Drainage pattern and implications on ice flow and bedrock motion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 7320–7327, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074081, 2017.
Knuth, F., Shean, D., Bhushan, S., Schwat, E., Alexandrov, O., McNeil, C., Dehecq, A., Florentine, C., and O'Neel, S.: Historical Structure from Motion (HSfM): Automated processing of historical aerial photographs for long-term topographic change analysis, Remote Sens. Environ., 285, 113379, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2022.113379, 2023.
Kochtitzky, W., Copland, L., Painter, M., and Dow, C.: Draining and filling of ice-dammed lakes at the terminus of surge-type Dań Zhùr (Donjek) Glacier, Yukon, Canada, Can. J. Earth Sci., 57, 1337–1348, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjes-2019-0233, 2020.
Lander, J. F.: Tsunamis affecting Alaska: 1737–1996, U. S. Dept. of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, National Geophysical Data Center, 1996.
Larsen, C. F., Motyka, R. J., Arendt, A. A., Echelmeyer, K. A., and Geissler, P. E.: Glacier changes in southeast Alaska and northwest British Columbia and contribution to sea level rise, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, F01007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000586, 2007.
Larsen, C. F., Burgess, E., Arendt, A. A., O'Neel, S., Johnson, A. J., and Kienholz, C.: Surface melt dominates Alaska glacier mass balance, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5902–5908, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064349, 2015.
Lemaire, E., Dufresne, A., Hamdi, P., Higman, B., Wolken, G. J., and Amann, F.: Back-analysis of the paraglacial slope failure at Grewingk Glacier and Lake, Alaska, Landslides, 21, 775–789, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-023-02177-6, 2024.
Liestøl, O.: Glacier dammed lakes in Norway, Norsk Geogr. Tidsskr., 15, 122–149, https://doi.org/10.1080/00291955608542772, 1956.
Lützow, N.: Extended data – Desolation Lake, Alaska, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13683729, 2024.
Lützow, N. and Veh, G.: Glacier lake outburst flood database (4.0), http://glofs.geoecology.uni-potsdam.de/ (last access: 8 December 2024), 2024.
Mader, C. and Gittings, M.: Modeling the 1958 Lituya Bay mega-tsunami, II, Science of Tsunami Hazards, 20, 241–246, 2002.
Marcus, M. G.: Periodic drainage of glacier-dammed Tulsequah Lake, British Columbia, Geogr. Rev., 50, 89, https://doi.org/10.2307/212337, 1960.
Mathews, W. H.: Two self-dumping ice-dammed lakes in British Columbia, Geogr. Rev., 55, 46–52, https://doi.org/10.2307/212854, 1965.
Mathews, W. H. and Clague, J. J.: The record of jökulhlaups from Summit Lake, northwestern British Columbia, Can. J. Earth Sci., 30, 499–508, https://doi.org/10.1139/e93-039, 1993.
Mayer, C., Lambrecht, A., Hagg, W., Helm, A., and Scharrer, K.: Post-drainage ice dam response at Lake Merzbacher, Inylchek Glacier, Kyrgyzstan, Geogr. Ann. A, 90, 87–96, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0459.2008.00336.x, 2008.
Mernild, S. H., Holland, D. M., Holland, D., Rosing-Asvid, A., Yde, J. C., Liston, G. E., and Steffen, K.: Freshwater flux and spatiotemporal simulated runoff variability into Ilulissat Icefjord, West Greenland, linked to salinity and temperature observations near tidewater glacier margins obtained using instrumented ringed seals, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 45, 1426–1445, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-14-0217.1, 2015.
Miller, D. J.: Giant waves in Lituya Bay, Alaska, USGS Professional Paper, 51–86, https://doi.org/10.3133/pp354C, 1960.
Moore, R. D., Fleming, S. W., Menounos, B., Wheate, R., Fountain, A., Stahl, K., Holm, K., and Jakob, M.: Glacier change in western North America: influences on hydrology, geomorphic hazards and water quality, Hydrol. Process., 23, 42–61, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7162, 2008.
Motyka, R. J., O'Neel, S., Connor, C. L., and Echelmeyer, K. A.: Twentieth century thinning of Mendenhall Glacier, Alaska, and its relationship to climate, lake calving, and glacier run-off, Global Planet. Change, 35, 93–112, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(02)00138-8, 2003.
Motyka, R. J., Truffer, M., Kuriger, E. M., and Bucki, A. K.: Rapid erosion of soft sediments by tidewater glacier advance: Taku Glacier, Alaska, USA, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24504, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028467, 2006.
NASA its-live: https://its-live.jpl.nasa.gov/, last access: 1 June 2024.
Nuth, C. and Kääb, A.: Co-registration and bias corrections of satellite elevation data sets for quantifying glacier thickness change, The Cryosphere, 5, 271–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-271-2011, 2011.
Nye, J. F.: Water flow in glaciers: jökulhlaups, tunnels and veins, J. Glaciol., 17, 181–207, https://doi.org/10.3189/S002214300001354X, 1976.
OpenAltimetry Explorer: https://openaltimetry.earthdatacloud.nasa.gov/, last access: 11 November 2024.
Otto, J.-C.: Proglacial lakes in high mountain environments, in: Geomorphology of proglacial systems: Landform and sediment dynamics in recently deglaciated alpine landscapes, edited by: Heckmann, T. and Morche, D., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 231–247, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-94184-4_14, 2019.
Painter, M., Copland, L., Dow, C., Kochtitzky, W., and Medrzycka, D.: Patterns and mechanisms of repeat drainages of glacier-dammed Dań Zhùr (Donjek) Lake, Yukon, Arctic Science, 10, 583–595, https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2023-0001, 2024.
Planet Explorer: https://www.planet.com/products/explorer/, last access: 1 December 2023.
Porter, C., Howat, I., Noh, M.-J., Husby, E., Khuvis, S., Danish, E., Tomko, K., Gardiner, J., Negrete, A., Yadav, B., Klassen, J., Kelleher, C., Cloutier, M., Bakker, J., Enos, J., Arnold, G., Bauer, G., and Morin, P.: ArcticDEM – Strips, Version 4.1 (V1), https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/C98DVS, 2022.
Post, A. and Mayo, L. R.: Glacier dammed lakes and outburst floods in Alaska, USGS Hydrologic Atlas, U.S. Geological Survey, 455, https://doi.org/10.3133/ha455, 1971.
QGIS: QGIS version 3.30.0, QGIS [software], https://qgis.org/download/ (last access: 4 March 2023), 2023.
Rabot, C.: Glacial reservoirs and their outbursts, Geogr. J., 25, 534–548, https://doi.org/10.2307/1776694, 1905.
R Project: R version 4.2.2, R Project [software], https://cran.r-project.org/src/base/R-4/ (last access: 31 October 2022), 2022.
RGI Consortium: Randolph glacier inventory version 6.0, http://www.glims.org/RGI/ (last access: 29 October 2022), 2017.
Rick, B., McGrath, D., Armstrong, W., and McCoy, S. W.: Dam type and lake location characterize ice-marginal lake area change in Alaska and NW Canada between 1984 and 2019, The Cryosphere, 16, 297–314, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-297-2022, 2022.
Rick, B., McGrath, D., McCoy, S. W., and Armstrong, W. H.: Unchanged frequency and decreasing magnitude of outbursts from ice-dammed lakes in Alaska, Nat. Commun., 14, 6138, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41794-6, 2023.
Russell, A. J., Carrivick, J. L., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Yde, J. C., and Williams, M.: A new cycle of jökulhlaups at Russell Glacier, Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland, J. Glaciol., 57, 238–246, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311796405997, 2011.
Scherler, D., Wulf, H., and Gorelick, N.: Supraglacial debris cover (V.1.0), https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.3.3.2018.005, 2018.
Shean, D. E., Alexandrov, O., Moratto, Z. M., Smith, B. E., Joughin, I. R., Porter, C., and Morin, P.: An automated, open-source pipeline for mass production of digital elevation models (DEMs) from very-high-resolution commercial stereo satellite imagery, ISPRS J. Photogramm., 116, 101–117, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2016.03.012, 2016.
Shean, D. E., Bhushan, S., Montesano, P., Rounce, D. R., Arendt, A., and Osmanoglu, B.: A systematic, regional assessment of high mountain asia glacier mass balance, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 363, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00363, 2020.
Shugar, D. H., Burr, A., Haritashya, U. K., Kargel, J. S., Watson, C. S., Kennedy, M. C., Bevington, A. R., Betts, R. A., Harrison, S., and Strattman, K.: Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 939–945, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0855-4, 2020.
Sturm, M. and Benson, C. S.: A history of jökulhlaups from Strandline Lake, Alaska, U.S.A., J. Glaciol., 31, 272–280, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000006602, 1985.
Thorarinsson, S.: Chapter IX. The ice dammed lakes of Iceland with particular reference to their values as indicators of glacier oscillations, Geogr. Ann., 21, 216–242, https://doi.org/10.1080/20014422.1939.11880679, 1939.
Thorarinsson, S.: Some new aspects of the Grímsvötn problem, J. Glaciol., 2, 267–275, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000025454, 1953.
Tober, B. S., Holt, J. W., Christoffersen, M. S., Truffer, M., Larsen, C. F., Brinkerhoff, D. J., and Mooneyham, S. A.: Comprehensive radar mapping of Malaspina Glacier (Sít' Tlein), Alaska – The world's largest piedmont glacier – Reveals potential for instability, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 128, e2022JF006898, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JF006898, 2023.
Trüssel, B. L., Motyka, R. J., Truffer, M., and Larsen, C. F.: Rapid thinning of lake-calving Yakutat Glacier and the collapse of the Yakutat Icefield, southeast Alaska, USA, J. Glaciol., 59, 149–161, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013J0G12J081, 2013.
Tweed, F. S.: Jökulhlaup initiation by ice-dam flotation: the significance of glacier debris content, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 25, 105–108, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1096-9837(200001)25:1<105::AID-ESP73>3.0.CO;2-B, 2000.
Tweed, F. S. and Russell, A. J.: Controls on the formation and sudden drainage of glacier-impounded lakes: implications for jökulhlaup characteristics, Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, 23, 79–110, https://doi.org/10.1177/030913339902300104, 1999.
U.S. Coast Survey: From Lituya Bay to Yakutat Bay, NOAA's Office of Coast Survey Historical Map & Chart Collection, https://historicalcharts.noaa.gov/ (last access: 16 August 2022), 1882.
U.S. Geological Survey: Mt. Fairweather, Alaska, Alaska topographic series, N5800-W13600/60X150, 1951.
U.S. Geological Survey: Mt. Fairweather, Alaska, Alaska topographic series, N5800-W13600/60X150, 1961.
USGS Earth Explorer: https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/, last access: 1 December 2023.
Veh, G., Lützow, N., Tamm, J., Luna, L. V., Hugonnet, R., Vogel, K., Geertsema, M., Clague, J. J., and Korup, O.: Less extreme and earlier outbursts of ice-dammed lakes since 1900, Nature, 614, 701–707, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05642-9, 2023.
Vilca, O., Mergili, M., Emmer, A., Frey, H., and Huggel, C.: The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood process chain at Lake Salkantaycocha (Cordillera Vilcabamba, Peru), Landslides, 18, 2211–2223, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-021-01670-0, 2021.
Walder, J. S. and Costa, J. E.: Outburst floods from glacier-dammed lakes: The effect of mode of lake drainage on flood magnitude, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 21, 701–723, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1096-9837(199608)21:8<701::AID-ESP615>3.0.CO;2-2, 1996.
Walder, J. S., Trabant, D. C., Cunico, M., Anderson, S. P., Anderson, R. S., Fountain, A. G., and Malm, A.: Fault-dominated deformation in an ice dam during annual filling and drainage of a marginal lake, Ann. Glaciol., 40, 174–178, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756405781813456, 2005.
Ward, S. N. and Day, S.: The 1958 Lituya Bay landslide and tsunami – A tsunami ball approach, J. Earthq. Tsunami, 4, 285–319, https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793431110000893, 2010.
Wendler, G., Gordon, T., and Stuefer, M.: On the precipitation and precipitation change in Alaska, Atmosphere-Basel, 8, 253, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8120253, 2017.
Willis, I. and Bonvin, J.-M.: Climate change in mountain environments: Hydrological and water resource implications, Geography, 80, 247–261, 1995.
Yang, R., Hock, R., Kang, S., Shangguan, D., and Guo, W.: Glacier mass and area changes on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, 1986–2016, J. Glaciol., 66, 603–617, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.32, 2020.
Zhang, T., Wang, W., and An, B.: Heterogeneous changes in global glacial lakes under coupled climate warming and glacier thinning, Commun. Earth Environ., 5, 374, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01544-y, 2024.
Zheng, G., Allen, S. K., Bao, A., Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A., Huss, M., Zhang, G., Li, J., Yuan, Y., Jiang, L., Yu, T., Chen, W., and Stoffel, M.: Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole deglaciation, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 411–417, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01028-3, 2021.
Zhou, Q.-Y., Park, J., and Koltun, V.: Open3D: A modern library for 3D data processing, arXiv [code], https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1801.09847, 2018.
Short summary
As the atmosphere warms, thinning glacier dams impound smaller lakes at their margins. Yet, some lakes deviate from this trend and have instead grown over time, increasing the risk of glacier floods to downstream populations and infrastructure. In this article, we examine the mechanisms behind the growth of an ice-dammed lake in Alaska. We find that the growth in size and outburst volumes is more controlled by glacier front downwaste than by overall mass loss over the entire glacier surface.
As the atmosphere warms, thinning glacier dams impound smaller lakes at their margins. Yet, some...
