Articles | Volume 18, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Sep 2024
Research article |
| 19 Sep 2024
| 19 Sep 2024
Feedback mechanisms controlling Antarctic glacial-cycle dynamics simulated with a coupled ice sheet–solid Earth model
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Meike Bagge
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam – GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
now at: Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Hanover, Germany
Volker Klemann
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam – GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2583, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We identify potential oceanic gateways to Antarctic grounding lines based on high-resolution bathymetry data and examine the effect of critical access depths on basal melt rates. These gateways manifest the deepest topographic features that connect the deeper open ocean and the ice-shelf cavity. We detect 'prominent' oceanic gateways in some Antarctic regions and estimate an upper limit of melt rate changes in case all warm water masses gain access to the cavities.
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how changing sea levels around Antarctica can potentially affect the floating ice shelves. It utilizes numerical models for both the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, investigating features like troughs and sills that control the flow of ocean water onto the continental shelf. The research finds that variations in sea level alone can significantly impact the melting rates of ice shelves.
Maria Zeitz, Jan M. Haacker, Jonathan F. Donges, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is crucial. Here, using PISM, we study how the interplay of feedbacks between the ice sheet, the atmosphere and solid Earth affects the long-term response of the Greenland Ice Sheet under constant warming. Our findings suggest four distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the route to destabilization under global warming – from recovery via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice sheet collapse.
Moritz Kreuzer, Ronja Reese, Willem Nicholas Huiskamp, Stefan Petri, Torsten Albrecht, Georg Feulner, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3697–3714, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present the technical implementation of a coarse-resolution coupling between an ice sheet model and an ocean model that allows one to simulate ice–ocean interactions at timescales from centuries to millennia. As ice shelf cavities cannot be resolved in the ocean model at coarse resolution, we bridge the gap using an sub-shelf cavity module. It is shown that the framework is computationally efficient, conserves mass and energy, and can produce a stable coupled state under present-day forcing.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Ronja Reese, Anders Levermann, Torsten Albrecht, Hélène Seroussi, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3097–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare 21st century projections of Antarctica's future sea-level contribution simulated with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model submitted to ISMIP6 with projections following the LARMIP-2 protocol based on the same model configuration. We find that (1) a preceding historic simulation increases mass loss by 5–50 % and that (2) the order of magnitude difference in the ice loss in our experiments following the two protocols can be explained by the translation of ocean forcing to sub-shelf melting.
Torsten Albrecht, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 633–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A large ensemble of glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) was analyzed in which four relevant model parameters were systematically varied. These parameters were selected in a companion study and are associated with uncertainties in ice dynamics, climatic forcing, basal sliding and solid Earth deformation. For each ensemble member a statistical score is computed, which enables calibrating the model against both modern and geologic data.
Torsten Albrecht, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 599–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
During the last glacial cycles the Antarctic Ice Sheet experienced alternating climatic conditions and varying sea-level history. In response, changes in ice sheet volume and ice-covered area occurred, implying feedbacks on the global sea level. We ran model simulations of the ice sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) over the last two glacial cycles to evaluate the model's sensitivity to different choices of boundary conditions and parameters to gain confidence for future projections.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Ronja Reese, Torsten Albrecht, Matthias Mengel, Xylar Asay-Davis, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Floating ice shelves surround most of Antarctica and ocean-driven melting at their bases is a major reason for its current sea-level contribution. We developed a simple model based on a box model approach that captures the vertical ocean circulation generally present in ice-shelf cavities and allows simulating melt rates in accordance with physical processes beneath the ice. We test the model for all Antarctic ice shelves and find that melt rates and melt patterns agree well with observations.
Jan Wohland, Torsten Albrecht, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-191, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
T. Albrecht and A. Levermann
The Cryosphere, 8, 587–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-587-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-587-2014, 2014
Christoph Dahle, Eva Boergens, Ingo Sasgen, Thorben Döhne, Sven Reißland, Henryk Dobslaw, Volker Klemann, Michael Murböck, Rolf König, Robert Dill, Mike Sips, Ulrike Sylla, Andreas Groh, Martin Horwath, and Frank Flechtner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-347, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-347, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
The satellite missions GRACE and GRACE-FO are unique observing systems to quantify global mass changes at the Earth’s surface from space. Time series of these mass changes are of high value for various applications, e.g., in hydrology, glaciology, and oceanography. GravIS provides easy access to user-friendly, regularly updated mass anomaly products. The associated portal visualizes and describes these data, aiming to highlight their significance for understanding changes in the climate system.
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Clemens Schannwell, Katharina D. Six, Florian A. Ziemen, Meike Bagge, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Olga Erokhina, Veronika Gayler, Volker Klemann, Virna L. Meccia, Anne Mouchet, and Thomas Riddick
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-55, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
A fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet-solid earth model was applied to simulate the time from the last glacial maximum to the preindustrial. The model simulations are compared to proxy data. During the glacial and deglaciation the model simulates several abrupt changes in North Atlantic climate. The underlying meachanisms are analysed and described.
Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Stefanie Talento, Ralf Greve, Jorjo Bernales, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 597–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present transient simulations of the last glacial inception with the coupled climate–ice sheet model CLIMBER-X showing a rapid increase in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet area and a sea level drop by ~ 35 m, with the vegetation feedback playing a key role. Overall, our simulations confirm and refine previous results showing that climate-vegetation–cryosphere–carbon cycle feedbacks play a fundamental role in the transition from interglacial to glacial states.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2583, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We identify potential oceanic gateways to Antarctic grounding lines based on high-resolution bathymetry data and examine the effect of critical access depths on basal melt rates. These gateways manifest the deepest topographic features that connect the deeper open ocean and the ice-shelf cavity. We detect 'prominent' oceanic gateways in some Antarctic regions and estimate an upper limit of melt rate changes in case all warm water masses gain access to the cavities.
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how changing sea levels around Antarctica can potentially affect the floating ice shelves. It utilizes numerical models for both the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, investigating features like troughs and sills that control the flow of ocean water onto the continental shelf. The research finds that variations in sea level alone can significantly impact the melting rates of ice shelves.
Maria Zeitz, Jan M. Haacker, Jonathan F. Donges, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is crucial. Here, using PISM, we study how the interplay of feedbacks between the ice sheet, the atmosphere and solid Earth affects the long-term response of the Greenland Ice Sheet under constant warming. Our findings suggest four distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the route to destabilization under global warming – from recovery via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice sheet collapse.
Reyko Schachtschneider, Jan Saynisch-Wagner, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Maik Thomas
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 53–75, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-53-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-53-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial isostatic adjustment is the delayed reaction of the Earth's lithosphere and mantle to changing mass loads of ice sheets or water. The deformation behaviour of the Earth's surface depends on the ability of the Earth's mantle to flow, i.e. its viscosity. It can be estimated from sea level observations, and in our study, we estimate mantle viscosity using sea level observations from the past. This knowledge is essential for understanding current sea level changes due to melting ice.
Moritz Kreuzer, Ronja Reese, Willem Nicholas Huiskamp, Stefan Petri, Torsten Albrecht, Georg Feulner, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3697–3714, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present the technical implementation of a coarse-resolution coupling between an ice sheet model and an ocean model that allows one to simulate ice–ocean interactions at timescales from centuries to millennia. As ice shelf cavities cannot be resolved in the ocean model at coarse resolution, we bridge the gap using an sub-shelf cavity module. It is shown that the framework is computationally efficient, conserves mass and energy, and can produce a stable coupled state under present-day forcing.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Ronja Reese, Anders Levermann, Torsten Albrecht, Hélène Seroussi, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3097–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare 21st century projections of Antarctica's future sea-level contribution simulated with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model submitted to ISMIP6 with projections following the LARMIP-2 protocol based on the same model configuration. We find that (1) a preceding historic simulation increases mass loss by 5–50 % and that (2) the order of magnitude difference in the ice loss in our experiments following the two protocols can be explained by the translation of ocean forcing to sub-shelf melting.
Torsten Albrecht, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 633–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A large ensemble of glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) was analyzed in which four relevant model parameters were systematically varied. These parameters were selected in a companion study and are associated with uncertainties in ice dynamics, climatic forcing, basal sliding and solid Earth deformation. For each ensemble member a statistical score is computed, which enables calibrating the model against both modern and geologic data.
Torsten Albrecht, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 599–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
During the last glacial cycles the Antarctic Ice Sheet experienced alternating climatic conditions and varying sea-level history. In response, changes in ice sheet volume and ice-covered area occurred, implying feedbacks on the global sea level. We ran model simulations of the ice sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) over the last two glacial cycles to evaluate the model's sensitivity to different choices of boundary conditions and parameters to gain confidence for future projections.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Ronja Reese, Torsten Albrecht, Matthias Mengel, Xylar Asay-Davis, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Floating ice shelves surround most of Antarctica and ocean-driven melting at their bases is a major reason for its current sea-level contribution. We developed a simple model based on a box model approach that captures the vertical ocean circulation generally present in ice-shelf cavities and allows simulating melt rates in accordance with physical processes beneath the ice. We test the model for all Antarctic ice shelves and find that melt rates and melt patterns agree well with observations.
Milena Latinović, Volker Klemann, Christopher Irrgang, Meike Bagge, Sebastian Specht, and Maik Thomas
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-50, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
By using geological samples we are trying to validate the models that are reconstructing the sea level in the past 20 000 years. We applied proposed statistical method using 4 types of shells that were found in the area of the Hudson Bay on 140 members of model ensemble. After the comparison of the the results with studies from this area, we concluded that the method is suitable for validation of model ensemble based sea-level change caused by land movement of the Earth due to ice-age burden.
Ingo Sasgen, Alba Martín-Español, Alexander Horvath, Volker Klemann, Elizabeth J. Petrie, Bert Wouters, Martin Horwath, Roland Pail, Jonathan L. Bamber, Peter J. Clarke, Hannes Konrad, Terry Wilson, and Mark R. Drinkwater
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 493–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-493-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-493-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a collection of data sets, consisting of surface-elevation rates for Antarctic ice sheet from a combination of Envisat and ICESat, bedrock uplift rates for 118 GPS sites in Antarctica, and optimally filtered GRACE gravity field rates. We provide viscoelastic response functions to a disc load forcing for Earth structures present in East and West Antarctica. This data collection enables a joint inversion for present-day ice-mass changes and glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica.
Jan Wohland, Torsten Albrecht, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-191, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
André Düsterhus, Alessio Rovere, Anders E. Carlson, Benjamin P. Horton, Volker Klemann, Lev Tarasov, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Tom Bradwell, Jorie Clark, Andrea Dutton, W. Roland Gehrels, Fiona D. Hibbert, Marc P. Hijma, Nicole Khan, Robert E. Kopp, Dorit Sivan, and Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
Clim. Past, 12, 911–921, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-911-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-911-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This review/position paper addresses problems in creating new interdisciplinary databases for palaeo-climatological sea-level and ice-sheet data and gives an overview on new advances to tackle them. The focus therein is to define and explain strategies and highlight their importance to allow further progress in these fields. It also offers important insights into the general problem of designing competitive databases which are also applicable to other communities within the palaeo-environment.
T. Albrecht and A. Levermann
The Cryosphere, 8, 587–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-587-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-587-2014, 2014
I. Sasgen, H. Konrad, E. R. Ivins, M. R. Van den Broeke, J. L. Bamber, Z. Martinec, and V. Klemann
The Cryosphere, 7, 1499–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1499-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1499-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Antarctic
Thwaites Glacier thins and retreats fastest where ice-shelf channels intersect its grounding zone
Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier
A model framework for atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange and the associated isotope effects at Dome Argus, Antarctica – Part 1: The diurnal changes
The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica
The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
How well can satellite altimetry and firn models resolve Antarctic firn thickness variations?
The effect of ice shelf rheology on shelf edge bending
Hysteresis of idealized, instability-prone outlet glaciers in response to pinning-point buttressing variation
A physics-based Antarctic melt detection technique: combining Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, radiative-transfer modeling, and firn modeling
Brief communication: Precision measurement of the index of refraction of deep glacial ice at radio frequencies at Summit Station, Greenland
Widespread increase in discharge from west Antarctic Peninsula glaciers since 2018
Surface dynamics and history of the calving cycle of Astrolabe Glacier (Adélie Coast, Antarctica) derived from satellite imagery
Detecting Holocene retreat and readvance in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica: assessing the suitability of sites near Pine Island Glacier for subglacial bedrock drilling
Weak relationship between remotely detected crevasses and inferred ice rheological parameters on Antarctic ice shelves
Speed-up, slowdown, and redirection of ice flow on neighbouring ice streams in the Pope, Smith and Kohler region of West Antarctica
A history-matching analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the last interglacial – Part 1: Ice sheet evolution
Extensive palaeo-surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet control modern and past ice flow
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 1: Event detection for cryoseismology
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 2: Unsupervised learning for source process characterization
Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica
Alpine topography of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, Antarctica, mapped from ice sheet surface morphology
A fast and unified subglacial hydrological model applied to Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica
Impact of boundary conditions on the modeled thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet
The staggered retreat of grounded ice in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)
The effect of landfast sea ice buttressing on ice dynamic speedup in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica
ISMIP6-based Antarctic Projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model
Meteoric water and glacial melt in the southeastern Amundsen Sea: a time series from 1994 to 2020
Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics
Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model
Modelling GNSS-observed seasonal velocity changes of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM)
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Evaluation of four calving laws for Antarctic ice shelves
Oceanic gateways in Antarctica – Impact of relative sea-level change on sub-shelf melt
Englacial architecture of Lambert Glacier, East Antarctica
Mass changes of the northern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet derived from repeat bi-static synthetic aperture radar acquisitions for the period 2013–2017
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple
Characteristics and rarity of the strong 1940s westerly wind event over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica
Sensitivity of the MAR regional climate model snowpack to the parameterization of the assimilation of satellite-derived wet-snow masks on the Antarctic Peninsula
Stratigraphic noise and its potential drivers across the plateau of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica
Modes of Antarctic tidal grounding line migration revealed by Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) laser altimetry
Evaluating the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution over the Antarctic domain using a variable-resolution Earth system model
Statistically parameterizing and evaluating a positive degree-day model to estimate surface melt in Antarctica from 1979 to 2022
Widespread slowdown in thinning rates of West Antarctic ice shelves
Seasonal variability in Antarctic ice shelf velocities forced by sea surface height variations
Revisiting temperature sensitivity: how does Antarctic precipitation change with temperature?
Cosmogenic-nuclide data from Antarctic nunataks can constrain past ice sheet instabilities
Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)
High mid-Holocene accumulation rates over West Antarctica inferred from a pervasive ice-penetrating radar reflector
Seasonal and interannual variability of the landfast ice mass balance between 2009 and 2018 in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica
Megadunes in Antarctica: migration and characterization from remote and in situ observations
Allison M. Chartrand, Ian M. Howat, Ian R. Joughin, and Benjamin E. Smith
The Cryosphere, 18, 4971–4992, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses high-resolution remote-sensing data to show that shrinking of the West Antarctic Thwaites Glacier’s ice shelf (floating extension) is exacerbated by several sub-ice-shelf meltwater channels that form as the glacier transitions from full contact with the seafloor to fully floating. In mapping these channels, the position of the transition zone, and thinning rates of the Thwaites Glacier, this work elucidates important processes driving its rapid contribution to sea level rise.
Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 18, 4567–4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical ice-flow model to simulate the response of a 1940s Pine Island Glacier to changes in melting beneath its ice shelf. A decadal period of warm forcing is sufficient to push the glacier into an unstable, irreversible retreat from its long-term position on a subglacial ridge to an upstream ice plain. This retreat can only be stopped when unrealistic cold forcing is applied. These results show that short warm anomalies can lead to quick and substantial increases in ice flux.
Tianming Ma, Zhuang Jiang, Minghu Ding, Pengzhen He, Yuansheng Li, Wenqian Zhang, and Lei Geng
The Cryosphere, 18, 4547–4565, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We constructed a box model to evaluate the isotope effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange at Dome A, Antarctica. The results show clear and invisible diurnal changes in surface snow isotopes under summer and winter conditions, respectively. The model also predicts that the annual net effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange would be overall enrichments in snow isotopes since the effects in summer appear to be greater than those in winter at the study site.
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4463–4492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
Christian Wirths, Thomas F. Stocker, and Johannes C. R. Sutter
The Cryosphere, 18, 4435–4462, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the influence of several regional climate models on the Antarctic Ice Sheet when applied as forcing for the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Our study shows that the choice of regional climate model forcing results in uncertainties of around a tenth of those in future sea level rise projections and also affects the extent of grounding line retreat in West Antarctica.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The interannual variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are mainly due to natural variations in snowfall. Precise knowledge of these variations is important for the detection of any long-term climatic trends in AIS surface elevation. We present a new product that spatially resolves these height variations over the period 1992–2017. The product combines the strengths of atmospheric modeling results and satellite altimetry measurements.
W. Roger Buck
The Cryosphere, 18, 4165–4176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Standard theory predicts that the edge of an ice shelf should bend downward. Satellite observations show that the edges of many ice shelves bend upward. A new theory for ice shelf bending is developed that, for the first time, includes the kind of vertical variations in ice flow properties expected for ice shelves. Upward bending of shelf edges is predicted as long as the ice surface is very cold and the ice flow properties depend strongly on temperature.
Johannes Feldmann, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4011–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show in simplified simulations that the (ir)reversibility of the retreat of instability-prone, Antarctica-type glaciers can strongly depend on the depth of the bed depression they rest on. If it is sufficiently deep, then the destabilized glacier does not recover from its collapsed state. Our results suggest that glaciers resting on a wide and deep bed depression, such as Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, are particularly susceptible to irreversible retreat.
Marissa E. Dattler, Brooke Medley, and C. Max Stevens
The Cryosphere, 18, 3613–3631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an algorithm based on combining models and satellite observations to identify the presence of surface melt on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We find that this method works similarly to previous methods by assessing 13 sites and the Larsen C ice shelf. Unlike previous methods, this algorithm is based on physical parameters, and updates to this method could allow the meltwater present on the Antarctic Ice Sheet to be quantified instead of simply detected.
Christoph Welling and The RNO-G Collaboration
The Cryosphere, 18, 3433–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We report on the measurement of the index of refraction in glacial ice at radio frequencies. We show that radio echoes from within the ice can be associated with specific features of the ice conductivity and use this to determine the wave velocity. This measurement is especially relevant for the Radio Neutrino Observatory Greenland (RNO-G), a neutrino detection experiment currently under construction at Summit Station, Greenland.
Benjamin J. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Carlos Moffat, Michael P. Meredith, and Benjamin J. Wallis
The Cryosphere, 18, 3237–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new dataset of ice motion, we observed glacier acceleration on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. The speed-up began around January 2021, but some glaciers sped up earlier or later. Using a combination of ship-based ocean temperature observations and climate models, we show that the speed-up coincided with a period of unusually warm air and ocean temperatures in the region.
Floriane Provost, Dimitri Zigone, Emmanuel Le Meur, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Clément Hibert
The Cryosphere, 18, 3067–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The recent calving of Astrolabe Glacier in November 2021 presents an opportunity to better understand the processes leading to ice fracturing. Optical-satellite imagery is used to retrieve the calving cycle of the glacier ice tongue and to measure the ice velocity and strain rates in order to document fracture evolution. We observed that the presence of sea ice for consecutive years has favoured the glacier extension but failed to inhibit the growth of fractures that accelerated in June 2021.
Joanne S. Johnson, John Woodward, Ian Nesbitt, Kate Winter, Seth Campbell, Keir A. Nichols, Ryan A. Venturelli, Scott Braddock, Brent M. Goehring, Brenda Hall, Dylan H. Rood, and Greg Balco
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1452, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Determining where and when the Antarctic ice sheet was smaller than present requires recovery and exposure dating of subglacial bedrock. Here we use ice sheet model outputs and field data (geological and glaciological observations, bedrock samples and ground-penetrating radar from subglacial ridges) to assess the suitability for drilling of sites in the Hudson Mountains, West Antarctica. We find that no sites are perfect, but two are feasible, with the most suitable being Winkie Nunatak.
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2677–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent efforts have focused on using AI and satellite imagery to track crevasses for assessing ice shelf damage and informing ice flow models. Our study reveals a weak connection between these observed products and damage maps inferred from ice flow models. While there is some improvement in crevasse-dense regions, this association remains limited. Directly mapping ice damage from satellite observations may not significantly improve the representation of these processes within ice flow models.
Heather Louise Selley, Anna E. Hogg, Benjamin J. Davison, Pierre Dutrieux, and Thomas Slater
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1442, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used satellite observations to measure recent changes in ice speed and flow direction in the Pope, Smith and Kohler Region of West Antarctica (2005–2022). We found substantial speed up on seven ice streams of up to 87 %. However, Kohler West Glacier has slowed by 10%, due to the redirection of ice flow into its rapidly thinning neighbour. This process of ‘ice piracy’ hasn’t previously been directly observed on this rapid timescale and may influence future ice shelf and sheet mass changes.
Benoit S. Lecavalier and Lev Tarasov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1291, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) over the last 200 ka by means of a history-matching analysis where an updated observational database constrained ~10,000 model simulations. During peak glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the best-fitting sub-ensemble of AIS simulations reached an excess grounded ice volume relative to present of 9.2 to 26.5 meters equivalent sea-level relative to present. The LGM AIS volume can help resolve the LGM missing ice problem.
Charlotte M. Carter, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Guy J. G. Paxman, Tom A. Jordan, Julien A. Bodart, Neil Ross, and Felipe Napoleoni
The Cryosphere, 18, 2277–2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use radio-echo sounding data to investigate the presence of flat surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region in West Antarctica. These surfaces may be what remains of laterally continuous surfaces, formed before the inception of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we assess two hypotheses for their formation. Tectonic structures in the region may have also had a control on the growth of the ice sheet by focusing ice flow into troughs adjoining these surfaces.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2061–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study of icequakes allows for investigation of many glacier processes that are unseen by typical reconnaissance methods. However, detection of such seismic signals is challenging due to low signal-to-noise levels and diverse source mechanisms. Here we present a novel algorithm that is optimized to detect signals from a glacier environment. We apply the algorithm to seismic data recorded in the 2010–2011 austral summer from the Whillans Ice Stream and evaluate the resulting event catalogue.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, Sue Cook, Bernd Kulessa, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2081–2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic catalogues are potentially rich sources of information on glacier processes. In a companion study, we constructed an event catalogue for seismic data from the Whillans Ice Stream. Here, we provide a semi-automated workflow for consistent catalogue analysis using an unsupervised cluster analysis. We discuss the defining characteristics of identified signal types found in this catalogue and possible mechanisms for the underlying glacier processes and noise sources.
Jan De Rydt and Kaitlin Naughten
The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice at an accelerating pace. This is largely due to the presence of warm ocean water around the periphery of the Antarctic continent, which melts the ice. It is generally assumed that the strength of this process is controlled by the temperature of the ocean. However, in this study we show that an equally important role is played by the changing geometry of the ice sheet, which affects the strength of the ocean currents and thereby the melt rates.
Edmund J. Lea, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1733–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use the ice surface expression of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in East Antarctica to map the horizontal pattern of valleys and ridges in finer detail than possible from previous methods. In upland areas, valleys are spaced much less than 5 km apart, with consequences for the distribution of melting at the bed and hence the likelihood of ancient ice being preserved. Automated mapping techniques were tested alongside manual approaches, with a hybrid approach recommended for future work.
Elise Kazmierczak, Thomas Gregov, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-466, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new fast model for the water flow beneath the ice sheet capable of handling in a unified way various hydrological and bed conditions. Applying this model to Thwaites Glacier, we show that accounting for this water flow in ice-sheet model projections has the potential to greatly increase the contribution to future sea-level rise. We also demonstrate that the sensitivity of the ice sheet in response to external changes depends on both the efficiency of the drainage and the bed type.
In-Woo Park, Emilia Kyung Jin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kang-Kun Lee
The Cryosphere, 18, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study conducted 3D thermodynamic ice sheet model experiments, and modeled temperatures were compared with 15 observed borehole temperature profiles. We found that using incompressibility of ice without sliding agrees well with observed temperature profiles in slow-flow regions, while incorporating sliding in fast-flow regions captures observed temperature profiles. Also, the choice of vertical velocity scheme has a greater impact on the shape of the modeled temperature profile.
Matthew A. Danielson and Philip J. Bart
The Cryosphere, 18, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Ross Sea was more significant than for any other Antarctic sector. Here we combined the available dates of retreat with new mapping of sediment deposited by the ice sheet during overall retreat. Our work shows that the post-LGM retreat through the Ross Sea was not uniform. This uneven retreat can cause instability in the present-day Antarctic ice sheet configuration and lead to future runaway retreat.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Anna E. Hogg, Stephen L. Cornford, Benjamin J. Wallis, Benjamin J. Davison, Heather L. Selley, Ross A. W. Slater, Elise K. Lie, Livia Jakob, Andrew Ridout, Noel Gourmelen, Bryony I. D. Freer, Sally F. Wilson, and Andrew Shepherd
The Cryosphere, 18, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we use satellite observations and an ice flow model to quantify the impact of sea ice buttressing on ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula. The evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022 was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and acceleration (30 %) of the ocean-terminating glaciers. Our results show that sea ice buttressing had a negligible direct role in the observed dynamic changes.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Helene L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, and Mira Adhikari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-441, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century, under a range of future climates, varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that, under stronger warming scenarios, ocean temperatures increases and more snow falls on the ice sheet. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melting driven loss exceeds snowfall driven gains, so that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Andrew N. Hennig, David A. Mucciarone, Stanley S. Jacobs, Richard A. Mortlock, and Robert B. Dunbar
The Cryosphere, 18, 791–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A total of 937 seawater paired oxygen isotope (δ18O)–salinity samples collected during seven cruises on the SE Amundsen Sea between 1994 and 2020 reveal a deep freshwater source with δ18O − 29.4±1.0‰, consistent with the signature of local ice shelf melt. Local mean meteoric water content – comprised primarily of glacial meltwater – increased between 1994 and 2020 but exhibited greater interannual variability than increasing trend.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Francesca Baldacchino, Nicholas R. Golledge, Huw Horgan, Mathieu Morlighem, Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alena Malyarenko, Alexandra Gossart, Daniel P. Lowry, and Laurine van Haastrecht
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2793, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf flow is changing in a warming world is important for monitoring mass changes. The flow displays an intra-annual variation; however, it is unclear what mechanisms drive this variability. Sensitivity maps are modelled showing areas of the ice shelf where changes in basal melt most influence the ice flow. We suggest that basal melting partly drives the flow variability along the calving front of the ice shelf and will continue to do so in a warming world.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Joel A. Wilner, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gong Cheng
The Cryosphere, 17, 4889–4901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use numerical modeling to study iceberg calving off of ice shelves in Antarctica. We examine four widely used mathematical descriptions of calving (
calving laws), under the assumption that Antarctic ice shelf front positions should be in steady state under the current climate forcing. We quantify how well each of these calving laws replicates the observed front positions. Our results suggest that the eigencalving and von Mises laws are most suitable for Antarctic ice shelves.
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how changing sea levels around Antarctica can potentially affect the floating ice shelves. It utilizes numerical models for both the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, investigating features like troughs and sills that control the flow of ocean water onto the continental shelf. The research finds that variations in sea level alone can significantly impact the melting rates of ice shelves.
Rebecca J. Sanderson, Kate Winter, S. Louise Callard, Felipe Napoleoni, Neil Ross, Tom A. Jordan, and Robert G. Bingham
The Cryosphere, 17, 4853–4871, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-penetrating radar allows us to explore the internal structure of glaciers and ice sheets to constrain past and present ice-flow conditions. In this paper, we examine englacial layers within the Lambert Glacier in East Antarctica using a quantitative layer tracing tool. Analysis reveals that the ice flow here has been relatively stable, but evidence for former fast flow along a tributary suggests that changes have occurred in the past and could change again in the future.
Thorsten Seehaus, Christian Sommer, Thomas Dethinne, and Philipp Malz
The Cryosphere, 17, 4629–4644, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Existing mass budget estimates for the northern Antarctic Peninsula (>70° S) are affected by considerable limitations. We carried out the first region-wide analysis of geodetic mass balances throughout this region (coverage of 96.4 %) for the period 2013–2017 based on repeat pass bi-static TanDEM-X acquisitions. A total mass budget of −24.1±2.8 Gt/a is revealed. Imbalanced high ice discharge, particularly at former ice shelf tributaries, is the main driver of overall ice loss.
Julius Garbe, Maria Zeitz, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt the novel surface module dEBM-simple in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to investigate the impact of atmospheric warming on Antarctic surface melt and long-term ice sheet dynamics. As an enhancement compared to traditional temperature-based melt schemes, the module accounts for changes in ice surface albedo and thus the melt–albedo feedback. Our results underscore the critical role of ice–atmosphere feedbacks in the future sea-level contribution of Antarctica on long timescales.
Gemma K. O'Connor, Paul R. Holland, Eric J. Steig, Pierre Dutrieux, and Gregory J. Hakim
The Cryosphere, 17, 4399–4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in West Antarctica are rapidly melting, but the causes are unknown due to limited observations. A leading hypothesis is that an unusually large wind event in the 1940s initiated the ocean-driven melting. Using proxy reconstructions (e.g., using ice cores) and climate model simulations, we find that wind events similar to the 1940s event are relatively common on millennial timescales, implying that ocean variability or climate trends are also necessary to explain the start of ice loss.
Thomas Dethinne, Quentin Glaude, Ghislain Picard, Christoph Kittel, Patrick Alexander, Anne Orban, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4267–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional(MAR) to the assimilation of wet-snow occurrence estimated by remote sensing datasets. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature. The data assimilation is performed over the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in the melt production (+66.7 %) and a decrease in surface mass balance (−4.5 %) of the model for the 2019–2020 melt season.
Nora Hirsch, Alexandra Zuhr, Thomas Münch, Maria Hörhold, Johannes Freitag, Remi Dallmayr, and Thomas Laepple
The Cryosphere, 17, 4207–4221, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes from firn cores provide valuable information on past climates, yet their utility is hampered by stratigraphic noise, i.e. the irregular deposition and wind-driven redistribution of snow. We found stratigraphic noise on the Antarctic Plateau to be related to the local accumulation rate, snow surface roughness and slope inclination, which can guide future decisions on sampling locations and thus increase the resolution of climate reconstructions from low-accumulation areas.
Bryony I. D. Freer, Oliver J. Marsh, Anna E. Hogg, Helen Amanda Fricker, and Laurie Padman
The Cryosphere, 17, 4079–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a method using ICESat-2 data to measure how Antarctic grounding lines (GLs) migrate across the tide cycle. At an ice plain on the Ronne Ice Shelf we observe 15 km of tidal GL migration, the largest reported distance in Antarctica, dominating any signal of long-term migration. We identify four distinct migration modes, which provide both observational support for models of tidal ice flexure and GL migration and insights into ice shelf–ocean–subglacial interactions in grounding zones.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Adam Herrington, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, David P. Schneider, Luke Trusel, Ziqi Yin, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 17, 3847–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation over Antarctica is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in sea level rise estimates. Earth system models (ESMs) are a valuable tool for these estimates but typically run at coarse spatial resolutions. Here, we present an evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM2 (VR-CESM2) for the first time with a grid designed for enhanced spatial resolution over Antarctica to achieve the high resolution of regional climate models while preserving the two-way interactions of ESMs.
Yaowen Zheng, Nicholas R. Golledge, Alexandra Gossart, Ghislain Picard, and Marion Leduc-Leballeur
The Cryosphere, 17, 3667–3694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Positive degree-day (PDD) schemes are widely used in many Antarctic numerical ice sheet models. However, the PDD approach has not been systematically explored for its application in Antarctica. We have constructed a novel grid-cell-level spatially distributed PDD (dist-PDD) model and assessed its accuracy. We suggest that an appropriately parameterized dist-PDD model can be a valuable tool for exploring Antarctic surface melt beyond the satellite era.
Fernando S. Paolo, Alex S. Gardner, Chad A. Greene, Johan Nilsson, Michael P. Schodlok, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 3409–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report on a slowdown in the rate of thinning and melting of West Antarctic ice shelves. We present a comprehensive assessment of the Antarctic ice shelves, where we analyze at a continental scale the changes in thickness, flow, and basal melt over the past 26 years. We also present a novel method to estimate ice shelf change from satellite altimetry and a time-dependent data set of ice shelf thickness and basal melt rates at an unprecedented resolution.
Cyrille Mosbeux, Laurie Padman, Emilie Klein, Peter D. Bromirski, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 2585–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica's ice shelves (the floating extension of the ice sheet) help regulate ice flow. As ice shelves thin or lose contact with the bedrock, the upstream ice tends to accelerate, resulting in increased mass loss. Here, we use an ice sheet model to simulate the effect of seasonal sea surface height variations and see if we can reproduce observed seasonal variability of ice velocity on the ice shelf. When correctly parameterised, the model fits the observations well.
Lena Nicola, Dirk Notz, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2563–2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For future sea-level projections, approximating Antarctic precipitation increases through temperature-scaling approaches will remain important, as coupled ice-sheet simulations with regional climate models remain computationally expensive, especially on multi-centennial timescales. We here revisit the relationship between Antarctic temperature and precipitation using different scaling approaches, identifying and explaining regional differences.
Anna Ruth W. Halberstadt, Greg Balco, Hannah Buchband, and Perry Spector
The Cryosphere, 17, 1623–1643, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the use of multimillion-year exposure ages from Antarctic bedrock outcrops to benchmark ice sheet model predictions and thereby infer ice sheet sensitivity to warm climates. We describe a new approach for model–data comparison, highlight an example where observational data are used to distinguish end-member models, and provide guidance for targeted sampling around Antarctica that can improve understanding of ice sheet response to climate warming in the past and future.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nathan M. Urban, and Matthew J. Hoffman
The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to future sea level from the Antarctic Ice Sheet remain poorly constrained. One reason is that ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. We investigate the impacts of two key parameters used during model initialization. We find that these parameter choices alone can impact multi-century sea level rise by up to 2 m, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these choices for sea level rise predictions.
Julien A. Bodart, Robert G. Bingham, Duncan A. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, David W. Ashmore, Enrica Quartini, Andrew S. Hein, David G. Vaughan, and Donald D. Blankenship
The Cryosphere, 17, 1497–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1497-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1497-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating how West Antarctica will change in response to future climatic change depends on our understanding of past ice processes. Here, we use a reflector widely visible on airborne radar data across West Antarctica to estimate accumulation rates over the past 4700 years. By comparing our estimates with current atmospheric data, we find that accumulation rates were 18 % greater than modern rates. This has implications for our understanding of past ice processes in the region.
Na Li, Ruibo Lei, Petra Heil, Bin Cheng, Minghu Ding, Zhongxiang Tian, and Bingrui Li
The Cryosphere, 17, 917–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-917-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-917-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The observed annual maximum landfast ice (LFI) thickness off Zhongshan (Davis) was 1.59±0.17 m (1.64±0.08 m). Larger interannual and local spatial variabilities for the seasonality of LFI were identified at Zhongshan, with the dominant influencing factors of air temperature anomaly, snow atop, local topography and wind regime, and oceanic heat flux. The variability of LFI properties across the study domain prevailed at interannual timescales, over any trend during the recent decades.
Giacomo Traversa, Davide Fugazza, and Massimo Frezzotti
The Cryosphere, 17, 427–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Megadunes are fields of huge snow dunes present in Antarctica and on other planets, important as they present mass loss on the leeward side (glazed snow), on a continent characterized by mass gain. Here, we studied megadunes using remote data and measurements acquired during past field expeditions. We quantified their physical properties and migration and demonstrated that they migrate against slope and wind. We further proposed automatic detections of the glazed snow on their leeward side.
Cited articles
A, G., Wahr, J., and Zhong, S.: Computations of the viscoelastic response of a 3-D compressible Earth to surface loading: an application to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in Antarctica and Canada, Geophys. J. Int., 192, 557–572, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggs030, 2012. a
Accardo, N. J., Wiens, D. A., Hernandez, S., Aster, R. C., Nyblade, A., Huerta, A., Anandakrishnan, S., Wilson, T., Heeszel, D. S., and Dalziel, I. W.: Upper mantle seismic anisotropy beneath the West Antarctic Rift System and surrounding region from shear wave splitting analysis, Geophys. J. Int., 198, 414–429, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu117, 2014. a
Adhikari, S., Ivins, E. R., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., and Nowicki, S.: Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics, Solid Earth, 5, 569–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-569-2014, 2014. a
Adhikari, S., Ivins, E. R., Larour, E., Caron, L., and Seroussi, H.: A kinematic formalism for tracking ice–ocean mass exchange on the Earth's surface and estimating sea-level change, The Cryosphere, 14, 2819–2833, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2819-2020, 2020. a, b
Albrecht, T.: Movie: Simulation of the relative sea level change rate around Antarctica with PISM-VILMA over the last 25 kyr, TIB AV Portal [video], https://doi.org/10.5446/65479, 2023. a, b
Albrecht, T.: Movie: Simulations of the relative sea level change along transect through Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, TIB AV Portal [video], https://doi.org/10.5446/68302, 2024a. a, b
Albrecht, T., Klemann, V., and Bagge, M.: PISM-VILMA glacial cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet coupled to the solid Earth and global sea level, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.972528, 2024. a
Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.: ETOPO1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis, NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC-24, National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA, Boulder [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V5C8276M, 2009. a
An, M., Wiens, D. A., Zhao, Y., Feng, M., Nyblade, A. A., Kanao, M., Li, Y., Maggi, A., and Lévêque, J.-J.: S-velocity model and inferred Moho topography beneath the Antarctic Plate from Rayleigh waves, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 120, 359–383, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jb011332, 2015. a
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. a
Aschwanden, A. and Blatter, H.: Mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of polythermal glaciers, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 114, F001028, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jf001028, 2009. a
Aschwanden, A., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C., and Blatter, H.: An enthalpy formulation for glaciers and ice sheets, J. Glaciol., 58, 441–457, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG11J088, 2012. a
Bagge, M., Klemann, V., Steinberger, B., Latinović, M., and Thomas, M.: Glacial-Isostatic Adjustment Models Using Geodynamically Constrained 3D Earth Structures, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 22, e2021GC009853, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GC009853, 2021. a, b, c, d
Bakker, P., Clark, P. U., Golledge, N. R., Schmittner, A., and Weber, M. E.: Centennial-scale Holocene climate variations amplified by Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge, Nature, 541, 72, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20582, 2017. a
Barletta, V. R., Bevis, M., Smith, B. E., Wilson, T., Brown, A., Bordoni, A., Willis, M., Khan, S. A., Rovira-Navarro, M., Dalziel, I., Smalley, R. J. R., Kendrick, E., Konfal, S., Caccamise, D. J., Aster, R. C., Nyblade, A., and Wiens, D. A.: Observed rapid bedrock uplift in Amundsen Sea Embayment promotes ice-sheet stability, Science, 360, 1335–1339, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao1447, 2018. a, b
Behrendt, J. C.: Crustal and lithospheric structure of the West Antarctic Rift System from geophysical investigations – a review, Global Planet. Change, 23, 25–44, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0921-8181(99)00049-1, 1999. a
Blank, B., Barletta, V., Hu, H., Pappa, F., and van der Wal, W.: Effect of Lateral and Stress-Dependent Viscosity Variations on GIA Induced Uplift Rates in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 22, e2021GC009807, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gc009807, 2021. a, b
Book, C., Hoffman, M. J., Kachuck, S. B., Hillebrand, T. R., Price, S. F., Perego, M., and Bassis, J. N.: Stabilizing effect of bedrock uplift on retreat of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, at centennial timescales, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 597, 117798, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2022.117798, 2022. a
Braddock, S., Hall, B. L., Johnson, J. S., Balco, G., Spoth, M., Whitehouse, P. L., Campbell, S., Goehring, B. M., Rood, D. H., and Woodward, J.: Relative sea-level data preclude major late Holocene ice-mass change in Pine Island Bay, Nat. Geosci., 15, 568–572, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00961-y, 2022. a
Bradley, A. T. and Hewitt, I. J.: Tipping point in ice-sheet grounding-zone melting due to ocean water intrusion, Nat. Geosci., 17, 631–637, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01465-7, 2024. a
Bredow, E., Steinberger, B., Gassmöller, R., and Dannberg, J.: Mantle convection and possible mantle plumes beneath Antarctica – insights from geodynamic models and implications for topography, in: The Geochemistry and Geophysics of the Antarctic Mantle, Geological Society of London, ISBN 9781786204677, https://doi.org/10.1144/M56-2020-2, 2023. a
Briggs, R., Pollard, D., and Tarasov, L.: A glacial systems model configured for large ensemble analysis of Antarctic deglaciation, The Cryosphere, 7, 1949–1970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1949-2013, 2013. a
Briggs, R. D. and Tarasov, L.: How to evaluate model-derived deglaciation chronologies: a case study using Antarctica, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 63, 109–127, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.11.021, 2013. a
Brotchie, J. F. and Silvester, R.: On crustal flexure, J. Geophys. Res., 74, 5240–5252, https://doi.org/10.1029/jb074i022p05240, 1969. a
Bueler, E. and Brown, J.: Shallow shelf approximation as a “sliding law” in a thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 114, F001179, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001179, 2009. a
Bueler, E. and van Pelt, W.: Mass-conserving subglacial hydrology in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model version 0.6, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1613–1635, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1613-2015, 2015. a
Bueler, E., Lingle, C. S., and Brown, J.: Fast computation of a viscoelastic deformable Earth model for ice-sheet simulations, Ann. Glaciol., 46, 97–105, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756407782871567, 2007. a, b, c
CDO: CDO Climate Data Operators, http://mpimet.mpg.de/cdo, last access: 5 June 2024. a
Clark, P. U., Dyke, A. S., Shakun, J. D., Carlson, A. E., Clark, J., Wohlfarth, B., Mitrovica, J. X., Hostetler, S. W., and McCabe, A. M.: The Last Glacial Maximum, Science, 325, 710–714, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172873, 2009. a
Coulon, V., Bulthuis, K., Whitehouse, P. L., Sun, S., Haubner, K., Zipf, L., and Pattyn, F.: Contrasting response of West and East Antarctic ice sheets to glacial isostatic adjustment, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 126, e2020JF006003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jf006003, 2021. a, b
Crawford, A. J., Benn, D. I., Todd, J., Åström, J. A., Bassis, J. N., and Zwinger, T.: Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization, Nat. Commun., 12, 2701, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23070-7, 2021. a
de Boer, B., Stocchi, P., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: A fully coupled 3-D ice-sheet–sea-level model: algorithm and applications, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2141–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, 2014. a, b, c
de Boer, B., Stocchi, P., Whitehouse, P. L., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet–sea-level modelling, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 169, 13–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.05.013, 2017. a, b
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145, 2016. a, b
Dziadek, R., Ferraccioli, F., and Gohl, K.: High geothermal heat flow beneath Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica inferred from aeromagnetic data, Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00242-3, 2021. a
Dziewonski, A. M. and Anderson, D. L.: Preliminary reference Earth model, Phys. Earth Planet. In., 25, 297–356, https://doi.org/10.1016/0031-9201(81)90046-7, 1981. a
Farrell, W. E. and Clark, J. A.: On postglacial sea level, Geophys. J. Int., 46, 647–667, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1976.tb01252.x, 1976. a, b, c
Feldmann, J. and Levermann, A.: From cyclic ice streaming to Heinrich-like events: the grow-and-surge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, The Cryosphere, 11, 1913–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1913-2017, 2017. a
Feldmann, J., Albrecht, T., Khroulev, C., Pattyn, F., and Levermann, A.: Resolution-dependent performance of grounding line motion in a shallow model compared with a full-Stokes model according to the MISMIP3d intercomparison, J. Glaciol., 60, 353–360, https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG13J093, 2014. a, b
Fretwell, P., Pritchard, H. D., Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Barrand, N. E., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G., Catania, G., Callens, D., Conway, H., Cook, A. J., Corr, H. F. J., Damaske, D., Damm, V., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fujita, S., Gim, Y., Gogineni, P., Griggs, J. A., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Holmlund, P., Holt, J. W., Jacobel, R. W., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jordan, T., King, E. C., Kohler, J., Krabill, W., Riger-Kusk, M., Langley, K. A., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk, B. P., Matsuoka, K., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nogi, Y., Nost, O. A., Popov, S. V., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J., Ross, N., Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tinto, B. K., Welch, B. C., Wilson, D., Young, D. A., Xiangbin, C., and Zirizzotti, A.: Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013. a, b, c, d, e, f
Gladstone, R. M., Payne, A. J., and Cornford, S. L.: Parameterising the grounding line in flow-line ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 4, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-605-2010, 2010. a
Goelzer, H., Coulon, V., Pattyn, F., de Boer, B., and van de Wal, R.: Brief communication: On calculating the sea-level contribution in marine ice-sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 833–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Golledge, N. R., Menviel, L., Carter, L., Fogwill, C. J., England, M. H., Cortese, G., and Levy, R. H.: Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A from reduced Southern Ocean overturning, Nat. Commun., 5, 5107, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6107, 2014. a
Gomez, N., Mitrovica, J. X., Huybers, P., and Clark, P. U.: Sea level as a stabilizing factor for marine-ice-sheet grounding lines, Nat. Geosci., 3, 850–853, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1012, 2010. a, b, c
Gomez, N., Pollard, D., Mitrovica, J. X., Huybers, P., and Clark, P. U.: Evolution of a coupled marine ice sheet–sea level model, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 117, F01013, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002128, 2012. a, b
Gomez, N., Pollard, D., and Mitrovica, J. X.: A 3-D coupled ice sheet–sea level model applied to Antarctica through the last 40 ky, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 384, 88–99, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.09.042, 2013. a, b
Gomez, N., Pollard, D., and Holland, D.: Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss, Nat. Commun., 6, 8798, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9798, 2015. a, b
Gomez, N., Latychev, K., and Pollard, D.: A coupled ice sheet–sea level model incorporating 3D earth structure: variations in Antarctica during the last deglacial retreat, J. Climate, 31, 4041–4054, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0352.1, 2018. a, b
Gregory, J. M., Griffies, S. M., Hughes, C. W., Lowe, J. A., Church, J. A., Fukimori, I., Gomez, N., Kopp, R. E., Landerer, F., Cozannet, G. L., Ponte, R. M., Stammer, D., Tamisiea, M. E., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Concepts and Terminology for Sea Level: Mean, Variability and Change, Both Local and Global, Surv. Geophys., 40, 1251–1289, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09525-z, 2019. a
Gudmundsson, G. H.: Ice-shelf buttressing and the stability of marine ice sheets, The Cryosphere, 7, 647–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-647-2013, 2013. a
Hagedoorn, J. M., Wolf, D., and Martinec, Z.: An estimate of global mean sea-level rise inferred from tide-gauge measurements using glacial-isostatic models consistent with the relative sea-level record, Pure Appl. Geophys., 164, 791–818, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-007-0186-7, 2007. a
Han, H. K., Gomez, N., Pollard, D., and DeConto, R.: Modeling Northern Hemispheric Ice Sheet Dynamics, Sea Level Change, and Solid Earth Deformation Through the Last Glacial Cycle, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 126, e2020JF006040, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JF006040, 2021. a
Han, H. K., Gomez, N., and Wan, J. X. W.: Capturing the interactions between ice sheets, sea level and the solid Earth on a range of timescales: a new “time window” algorithm, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1355–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1355-2022, 2022. a, b, c, d
Haseloff, M. and Sergienko, O. V.: The effect of buttressing on grounding line dynamics, J. Glaciol., 64, 417–431, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.30, 2018. a
Heeszel, D. S., Wiens, D. A., Anandakrishnan, S., Aster, R. C., Dalziel, I. W., Huerta, A. D., Nyblade, A. A., Wilson, T. J., and Winberry, J. P.: Upper mantle structure of central and West Antarctica from array analysis of Rayleigh wave phase velocities, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 121, 1758–1775, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jb012616, 2016. a
Hindmarsh, R. C. A.: A numerical comparison of approximations to the Stokes equations used in ice sheet and glacier modeling, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 109, F01012, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003jf000065, 2004. a
Huang, P., Steffen, R., Steffen, H., Klemann, V., Wu, P., van der Wal, W., Martinec, Z., and Tanaka, Y.: A commercial finite element approach to modelling Glacial Isostatic Adjustment on spherical self-gravitating compressible earth models, Geophys. J. Int., 235, 2231–2256, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad354, 2023. a
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., pp. 3–32, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf (last access: 26 August 2024), 2021. a
Ivins, E. R., van der Wal, W., Wiens, D. A., Lloyd, A. J., and Caron, L.: Antarctic upper mantle rheology, in: The Geochemistry and Geophysics of the Antarctic Mantle, edited by: Martin, A. P. and van der Wal, W., 267–294, Geological Society of London, ISBN 9781786204677, https://doi.org/10.1144/M56-2020-19, 2023. a
Johnson, J. S., Venturelli, R. A., Balco, G., Allen, C. S., Braddock, S., Campbell, S., Goehring, B. M., Hall, B. L., Neff, P. D., Nichols, K. A., Rood, D. H., Thomas, E. R., and Woodward, J.: Review article: Existing and potential evidence for Holocene grounding line retreat and readvance in Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 16, 1543–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1543-2022, 2022. a
Jones, R. S., Johnson, J. S., Lin, Y., Mackintosh, A. N., Sefton, J. P., Smith, J. A., Thomas, E. R., and Whitehouse, P. L.: Stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the pre-industrial Holocene, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 3, 500–515, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00309-5, 2022. a
Joughin, I. and Alley, R. B.: Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in a warming world, Nat. Geosci., 4, 506–513, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1194, 2011. a
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., and Medley, B.: Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially Underway for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica, Science, 12, 49055, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1249055, 2014. a
Kendall, R. A., Mitrovica, J. X., and Milne, G. A.: On post-glacial sea level–II. Numerical formulation and comparative results on spherically symmetric models, Geophys. J. Int., 161, 679–706, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02553.x, 2005. a
Kendall, R. A., Latychev, K., Mitrovica, J. X., Davis, J. E., and Tamisiea, M. E.: Decontaminating tide gauge records for the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment: The potential impact of 3-D Earth structure, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24318, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028448, 2006. a
Khrulev, C., Aschwanden, A., Bueler, E., Brown, J., Maxwell, D., Albrecht, T., Reese, R., Mengel, M., Martin, M., Winkelmann, R., Zeitz, M., Levermann, A., Feldmann, J., Garbe, J., Haseloff, M., Seguinot, J., Hinck, S., Kleiner, T., Fischer, E., Damsgaard, A., Lingle, C., van Pelt, W., Ziemen, F., Shemonski, N., Mankoff, K., Kennedy, J., Blum, K., Habermann, M., DellaGiustina, D., Hock, R., Kreuzer, M., Degregori, E., and Schoell, S.: Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10202029, 2023. a, b
Kingslake, J., Scherer, R. P., Albrecht, T., Coenen, J., Powell, R. D., Reese, R., Stansell, N. D., Tulaczyk, S., Wearing, M. G., and Whitehouse, P. L.: Extensive retreat and re-advance of the West Antarctic ice sheet during the Holocene, Nature, 558, 430, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0208-x, 2018. a, b, c
Klemann, V., Martinec, Z., and Ivins, E. R.: Glacial isostasy and plate motion, J. Geodynam., 46, 95–103, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2008.04.005, 2008. a, b
Konrad, H., Thoma, M., Sasgen, I., Klemann, V., Grosfeld, K., Barbi, D., and Martinec, Z.: The deformational response of a viscoelastic solid earth model coupled to a thermomechanical ice sheet model, Surv. Geophys., 35, 1441–1458, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-013-9257-8, 2014. a, b, c, d
Kreuzer, M., Reese, R., Huiskamp, W. N., Petri, S., Albrecht, T., Feulner, G., and Winkelmann, R.: Coupling framework (1.0) for the PISM (1.1.4) ice sheet model and the MOM5 (5.1.0) ocean model via the PICO ice shelf cavity model in an Antarctic domain, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3697–3714, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021, 2021. a, b
Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Adhikari, S., Ivins, E., Caron, L., Morlighem, M., and Schlegel, N.: Slowdown in Antarctic mass loss from solid Earth and sea-level feedbacks, Science, 364, eaav7908, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav7908, 2019. a, b
Latychev, K., Mitrovica, J. X., Tromp, J., Tamisiea, M. E., Komatitsch, D., and Christara, C. C.: Glacial isostatic adjustment on 3-D Earth models: a finite-volume formulation, Geophys. J. Int., 161, 421–444, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246x.2005.02536.x, 2005. a
Le Meur, E. and Huybrechts, P.: A comparison of different ways of dealing with isostasy: examples from modelling the Antarctic ice sheet during the last glacial cycle, Ann. Glaciol., 23, 309–317, https://doi.org/10.1017/s0260305500013586, 1996. a
Lenton, T. M., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Loriani, S., Abrams, J., Lade, S., Donges, J., Milkoreit, M., Powell, T., Smith, S., Zimm, C., Buxton, J., Bailey, E., Laybourn, L., Ghadiali, A., and Dyke, J. (Eds.): The Global Tipping Points Report 2023, Tech. rep., University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, https://global-tipping-points.org (last access: 26 August 2024), 2023. a
Levermann, A., Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R., Martin, M. A., Haseloff, M., and Joughin, I.: Kinematic first-order calving law implies potential for abrupt ice-shelf retreat, The Cryosphere, 6, 273–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-273-2012, 2012. a
Li, D.: Physical processes and feedbacks obscuring the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Geosyst. Geoenviron., 1, 100084, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geogeo.2022.100084, 2022. a
Lingle, C. S. and Clark, J. A.: A numerical model of interactions between a marine ice sheet and the solid earth: Application to a West Antarctic ice stream, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 90, 1100–1114, https://doi.org/10.1029/jc090ic01p01100, 1985. a, b
Lipscomb, W. H., Behar, D., and Morrison, M. A.: Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-534, 2024. a
Lliboutry, L. and Duval, P.: Various isotropic and anisotropic ices found in glaciers and polar ice caps and their corresponding rheologies: Ann Geophys V3, N2, March–April 1985, P207–224, Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. Geomech. Abstr., 22, 198, https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-9062(85)90267-0, 1985. a
Lloyd, A. J., Wiens, D. A., Zhu, H., Tromp, J., Nyblade, A. A., Aster, R. C., Hansen, S. E., Dalziel, I. W., Wilson, T. J., Ivins, E. R., and O'Donnell, J. P.: Seismic structure of the Antarctic upper mantle imaged with adjoint tomography, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 125, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB017823, 2020. a, b
Lough, A. C., Wiens, D. A., Grace Barcheck, C., Anandakrishnan, S., Aster, R. C., Blankenship, D. D., Huerta, A. D., Nyblade, A., Young, D. A., and Wilson, T. J.: Seismic detection of an active subglacial magmatic complex in Marie Byrd Land, Antarctica, Nat. Geosci., 6, 1031–1035, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1992, 2013. a
Lowry, D., Han, H. K., Golledge, N., Gomez, N., Johnson, K., and McKay, R.: Ocean cavity regime shift reversed West Antarctic grounding line retreat in the late Holocene, Nat. Commun., 15, 3176, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-47369-3, 2024. a
Maptiler: WGS 84/Antarctic Polar Stereographic, https://epsg.io/3031 (last access: 5 June 2024), 2024. a
Martinec, Z.: Program to calculate the spectral harmonic expansion coefficients of the two scalar fields product, Comput. Phys. Commun., 54, 177–182, https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-4655(89)90043-X, 1989. a
Martinec, Z.: Spectral–finite element approach to three-dimensional viscoelastic relaxation in a spherical earth, Geophys. J. Int., 142, 117–141, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246x.2000.00138.x, 2000. a, b
Martinec, Z. and Hagedoorn, J.: The rotational feedback on linear-momentum balance in glacial isostatic adjustment, Geophys. J. Int., 199, 1823–1846, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu369, 2014. a
Martinec, Z., Klemann, V., van der Wal, W., Riva, R. E. M., Spada, G., Sun, Y., Melini, D., Kachuck, S. B., Barletta, V., Simon, K., A, G., and James, T. S.: A benchmark study of numerical implementations of the sea level equation in GIA modelling, Geophys. J. Int., 215, 389–414, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggy280, 2018. a
Mercer, J. H.: West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster, Nature, 271, 321, https://doi.org/10.1038/271321a0, 1978. a
Milne, G. A. and Mitrovica, J. X.: Postglacial sea-level change on a rotating Earth: first results from a gravitationally self-consistent sea-level equation, Geophys. J. Int., 126, F13–F20, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246x.1996.tb04691.x, 1996. a
Mitrovica, J. and Milne, G.: On the origin of late Holocene sea-level highstands within equatorial ocean basins, Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, 2179–2190, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(02)00080-X, 2002. a
Mitrovica, J. X. and Milne, G. A.: On post-glacial sea level: I. General theory, Geophys. J. Int., 154, 253–267, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.2003.01942.x, 2003. a
Mitrovica, J. X. and Peltier, W. R.: On postglacial geoid subsidence over the equatorial oceans, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 96, 20053–20071, https://doi.org/10.1029/91JB01284, 1991. a
Mitrovica, J. X., Tamisiea, M. E., Davis, J. L., and Milne, G. A.: Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of global sea-level change, Nature, 409, 1026–1029, https://doi.org/10.1038/35059054, 2001. a
Mitrovica, J. X., Wahr, J., Matsuyama, I., and Paulson, A.: The rotational stability of an ice-age earth, Geophys. J. Int., 161, 491–506, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02609.x, 2005. a, b
Morelli, A. and Danesi, S.: Seismological imaging of the Antarctic continental lithosphere: a review, Global Planet. Change, 42, 155–165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2003.12.005, 2004. a
Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Binder, T., Blankenship, D., Drews, R., Eagles, G., Eisen, O., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fretwell, P., Goel, V., Greenbaum, J. S., and Gudmundsson, H., and Guo, J., Helm, V., Hofstede, C., Howat, I., Humbert, A., Jokat, W., Karlsson, N. B., Lee, W. S., Matsuoka, K., Millan, R., Mouginot, J., Paden, J., Pattyn, F., Roberts, J., Rosier, S., Ruppel, A., Seroussi, H., Smith, E. C., Steinhage, D., Sun, B., van den Broeke, M. R., van Ommen, T. D., van Wessem, M., and Young, D. A.: Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet, Nat. Geosci., 13, 132–137, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8, 2020. a
NCO: Command-line operators for netCDF and HDF files, https://nco.sourceforge.net (last access: 5 June 2024), 2003–2024. a
Neuhaus, S. U., Tulaczyk, S. M., Stansell, N. D., Coenen, J. J., Scherer, R. P., Mikucki, J. A., and Powell, R. D.: Did Holocene climate changes drive West Antarctic grounding line retreat and readvance?, The Cryosphere, 15, 4655–4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4655-2021, 2021. a
Nield, G. A., Barletta, V. R., Bordoni, A., King, M. A., Whitehouse, P. L., Clarke, P. J., Domack, E., Scambos, T. A., and Berthier, E.: Rapid bedrock uplift in the Antarctic Peninsula explained by viscoelastic response to recent ice unloading, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 397, 32–41, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.04.019, 2014. a
Nield, G. A., Whitehouse, P. L., van der Wal, W., Blank, B., O'Donnell, J. P., and Stuart, G. W.: The impact of lateral variations in lithospheric thickness on glacial isostatic adjustment in West Antarctica, Geophys. J. Int., 214, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggy158, 2018. a
Nowicki, S., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Payne, A. J., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Kuipers Munneke, P., Larour, E., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M. R., and van de Wal, R.: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020. a
Nowicki, S. M. J., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Shepherd, A.: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4521–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, 2016. a
Otosaka, I. N., Horwath, M., Mottram, R., and Nowicki, S.: Mass Balances of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets Monitored from Space, Surv. Geophys. 44, 1615–1652, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-023-09795-8, 2023. a
Pan, L., Powell, E. M., Latychev, K., Mitrovica, J. X., Creveling, J. R., Gomez, N., Hoggard, M. J., and Clark, P. U.: Rapid postglacial rebound amplifies global sea level rise following West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, Sci. Adv., 7, eabf7787, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf7787, 2021. a
Pattyn, F.: Sea-level response to melting of Antarctic ice shelves on multi-centennial timescales with the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model (f.ETISh v1.0), The Cryosphere, 11, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1851-2017, 2017. a
Pattyn, F. and Morlighem, M.: The uncertain future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Science, 367, 1331–1335, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz5487, 2020. a
Pattyn, F., Perichon, L., Durand, G., Favier, L., Gagliardini, O., Hindmarsh, R. C., Zwinger, T., Albrecht, T., Cornford, S., Docquier, D., Fürst, J. J., Goldberg, D., Gudmundsson, G. H., Humbert, A., Hütten, M., Huybrechts, P., Jouvet, G., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Martin, D., Morlighem, M., Payne A. J., Pollard, D., Rückamp. M., Rybak, O., Seroussi, H., Thoma, M., and Wilkens, N.: Grounding-line migration in plan-view marine ice-sheet models: results of the ice2sea MISMIP3d intercomparison, J. Glaciol., 59, 410–422, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013jog12j129, 2013. a
Pegler, S. S.: Marine ice sheet dynamics: the impacts of ice-shelf buttressing, J. Fluid Mech., 857, 605–647, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2018.741, 2018. a
Peltier, W.: On the hemispheric origins of meltwater pulse 1a, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 24, 1655–1671, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.06.023, 2005. a
Peltier, W., Argus, D., and Drummond, R.: Space geodesy constrains ice age terminal deglaciation: The global ICE-6G_C (VM5a) model, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 120, 450–487, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JB011176, 2015. a
Peltier, W. R.: The impulse response of a Maxwell Earth, Rev. Geophys., 12, 649–669, https://doi.org/10.1029/rg012i004p00649, 1974. a
PISM User Manual: PISM, a Parallel Ice Sheet Model: User's Manual, based on stable v.2.1 edn., https://www.pism.io/docs (last access: 5 June 2024), 2023. a
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: Description of a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model, and application to Antarctica, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1273–1295, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1273-2012, 2012. a
Pollard, D., DeConto, R. M., and Alley, R. B.: Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 412, 112–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035, 2015. a
Pollard, D., Gomez, N., and Deconto, R. M.: Variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in a Coupled Ice Sheet-Earth-Sea Level Model: Sensitivity to Viscoelastic Earth Properties, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 122, 2124–2138, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004371, 2017. a, b
Powell, E., Gomez, N., Hay, C., Latychev, K., and Mitrovica, J.: Viscous effects in the solid Earth response to modern Antarctic ice mass flux: Implications for geodetic studies of WAIS stability in a warming world, J. Climate, 33, 443–459, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0479.1, 2020. a
Powell, E. M., Pan, L., Hoggard, M. J., Latychev, K., Gomez, N., Austermann, J., and Mitrovica, J. X.: The impact of 3-D Earth structure on far-field sea level following interglacial West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 273, 107256, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107256, 2021. a
Quiquet, A., Dumas, C., Ritz, C., Peyaud, V., and Roche, D. M.: The GRISLI ice sheet model (version 2.0): calibration and validation for multi-millennial changes of the Antarctic ice sheet, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5003–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5003-2018, 2018. a
Ramirez, C., Nyblade, A., Hansen, S., Wiens, D. A., Anandakrishnan, S., Aster, R. C., Huerta, A. D., Shore, P., and Wilson, T.: Crustal and upper-mantle structure beneath ice-covered regions in Antarctica from S-wave receiver functions and implications for heat flow, Geophys. J. Int., 204, 1636–1648, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggv542, 2016. a
Reed, B., Green, J., Jenkins, A., and Gudmundsson, G. H.: Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier, Nat. Clim. Change, 14, 75–81, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y, 2023. a
Reese, R., Albrecht, T., Mengel, M., Asay-Davis, X., and Winkelmann, R.: Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via PICO, The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018a. a
Reese, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Levermann, A., and Winkelmann, R.: The far reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 53–57, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0020-x, 2018b. a
Reese, R., Winkelmann, R., and Gudmundsson, G. H.: Grounding-line flux formula applied as a flux condition in numerical simulations fails for buttressed Antarctic ice streams, The Cryosphere, 12, 3229–3242, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3229-2018, 2018c. a
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., and Scheuchl, B.: Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3502–3509, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060140, 2014. a
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., Van Den Broeke, M., Van Wessem, M. J., and Morlighem, M.: Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 1095–1103, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812883116, 2019. a
Schannwell, C., Mikolajewicz, U., Ziemen, F., and Kapsch, M.-L.: Sensitivity of Heinrich-type ice-sheet surge characteristics to boundary forcing perturbations, Clim. Past, 19, 179–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-179-2023, 2023. a
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F03S28, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664, 2007. a, b
Seroussi, H. and Morlighem, M.: Representation of basal melting at the grounding line in ice flow models, The Cryosphere, 12, 3085–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3085-2018, 2018. a
Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. a
SLURM: SLURM workload manager, https://slurm.schedmd.com/ (last access: 9 September 2024), 2003–2024. a
Spada, G., Barletta, V. R., Klemann, V., Riva, R. E. M., Martinec, Z., Gasperini, P., Lund, B., Wolf, D., Vermeersen, L. L. A., and King, M. A.: A benchmark study for glacial isostatic adjustment codes, Geophys. J. Int., 185, 106–132, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.04952.x, 2011. a
Spada, G., Bamber, J. L., and Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.: The gravitationally consistent sea-level fingerprint of future terrestrial ice loss, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 482–486, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl053000, 2013. a
Steinberger, B.: Topography caused by mantle density variations: observation-based estimates and models derived from tomography and lithosphere thickness, Geophys. J. Int., 205, 604–621, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggw040, 2016. a
Stocchi, P., Escutia, C., Houben, A. J., Vermeersen, B. L., Bijl, P. K., Brinkhuis, H., DeConto, R. M., Galeotti, S., Passchier, S., Pollard, D., Brinkhuis, H., Escutia, C., Klaus, A., Fehr, A., Williams, T., Bendle, J. A. P., Bijl, P. K., Bohaty, S. M., Carr, S. A., Dunbar, R. B., Flores, J. A., Gonzàlez, J. J., Hayden, T. G., Iwai, M., Jimenez-Espejo, F. J., Katsuki, K., Kong, G. S., McKay, R. M., Nakai, M., Olney, M. P., Passchier, S., Pekar, S. F., Pross, J., Riesselman, C., Röhl, U., Sakai, T., Shrivastava, P. K., Stickley, C. E., Sugisaki, S., Tauxe, L., Tuo, S., van de Flierdt, T., Welsh, K., and Yamane, Ml.: Relative sea-level rise around East Antarctica during Oligocene glaciation, Nat. Geosci., 6, 380–384, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1783, 2013. a
Sutter, J., Fischer, H., Grosfeld, K., Karlsson, N. B., Kleiner, T., Van Liefferinge, B., and Eisen, O.: Modelling the Antarctic Ice Sheet across the mid-Pleistocene transition – implications for Oldest Ice, The Cryosphere, 13, 2023–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2023-2019, 2019. a
Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Latychev, K., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Mitrovica, J.: FastIsostasy v1.0 – a regional, accelerated 2D glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model accounting for the lateral variability of the solid Earth, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5263–5290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, 2024. a, b, c
Thomas, R. H. and Bentley, C. R.: A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet, Quaternary Res., 10, 150–170, https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4, 1978. a
van Calcar, C. J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Blank, B., de Boer, B., and van der Wal, W.: Simulation of a fully coupled 3D glacial isostatic adjustment – ice sheet model for the Antarctic ice sheet over a glacial cycle, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5473–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Van den Berg, J., Van de Wal, R., Milne, G., and Oerlemans, J.: Effect of isostasy on dynamical ice sheet modeling: A case study for Eurasia, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 113, B05412, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JB004994, 2008. a
van der Wal, W., Whitehouse, P. L., and Schrama, E. J.: Effect of GIA models with 3D composite mantle viscosity on GRACE mass balance estimates for Antarctica, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 414, 134–143, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.01.001, 2015. a, b
Wan, J. X. W., Gomez, N., Latychev, K., and Han, H. K.: Resolving glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to modern and future ice loss at marine grounding lines in West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 16, 2203–2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2203-2022, 2022. a, b, c
Weber, M. E., Clark, P. U., Kuhn, G., Timmermann, A., Sprenk, D., Gladstone, R., Zhang, X., Lohmann, G., Menviel, L., Chikamoto, M. O., Friedrich, T., and Ohlwein, C.: Millennial-scale variability in Antarctic ice-sheet discharge during the last deglaciation, Nature, 510, 134–138, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13397, 00002, 2014. a
Weertman, J.: Stability of the junction of an ice sheet and an ice shelf, J. Glaciol., 13, 3–11, https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022143000023327, 1974. a
Whitehouse, P. L.: Glacial isostatic adjustment modelling: historical perspectives, recent advances, and future directions, Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 401–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-401-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Whitehouse, P. L., Bentley, M. J., Milne, G. A., King, M. A., and Thomas, I. D.: A new glacial isostatic adjustment model for Antarctica: calibrated and tested using observations of relative sea-level change and present-day uplift rates, Geophys. J. Int., 190, 1464–1482, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05557.x, 2012. a
Whitehouse, P. L., Gomez, N., King, M. A., and Wiens, D. A.: Solid Earth change and the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Nat. Commun., 10, 503, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08068-y, 2019. a, b
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Robinson, A., and Edwards, N. R.: The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 1: Climate model description and validation, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022. a, b
Winkelmann, R., Martin, M. A., Haseloff, M., Albrecht, T., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C., and Levermann, A.: The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) – Part 1: Model description, The Cryosphere, 5, 715–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-715-2011, 2011. a
Wu, P., Wang, H., and Schotman, H.: Postglacial induced surface motions, sea-levels and geoid rates on a spherical, self-gravitating laterally heterogeneous earth, J. Geodynam., 39, 127–142, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2004.08.006, 2005. a
Yang, H., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Kleiner, T., Sidorenko, D., Rodehacke, C. B., Shi, X., Gierz, P., Niu, L., Gowan, E. J., Hinck, S., Liu, X., Stap, L. B., and Lohmann, G.: Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Plos one, 17, e0259816, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259816, 2022. a
Yousefi, M., Wan, J., Pan, L., Gomez, N., Latychev, K., Mitrovica, J., Pollard, D., and DeConto, R.: The Influence of the Solid Earth on the Contribution of Marine Sections of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Future Sea-Level Change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL097525, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097525, 2022. a, b
Zeitz, M., Haacker, J. M., Donges, J. F., Albrecht, T., and Winkelmann, R.: Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, 2022. a
Zhong, S., Kang, K., A, G., and Qin, C.: CitcomSVE: A Three‐Dimensional Finite Element Software Package for Modeling Planetary Mantle's Viscoelastic Deformation in Response to Surface and Tidal Loads, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 23, e2022GC010359, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gc010359, 2022. a
Ziemen, F. A., Kapsch, M.-L., Klockmann, M., and Mikolajewicz, U.: Heinrich events show two-stage climate response in transient glacial simulations, Clim. Past, 15, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, 2019. a
Zwally, H. J., Giovinetto, M. B., Beckley, M. A., and Saba, J. L.: Antarctic and Greenland drainage systems, GSFC cryospheric sciences laboratory, http://imbie.org/imbie-2016/drainage-basins/ (last access: 9 September 2024), 2012. a
Short summary
We performed coupled ice sheet–solid Earth simulations and discovered a positive (forebulge) feedback mechanism for advancing grounding lines, supporting a larger West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. During deglaciation we found that the stabilizing glacial isostatic adjustment feedback dominates grounding-line retreat in the Ross Sea, with a weak Earth structure. This may have consequences for present and future ice sheet stability and potential rates of sea-level rise.
We performed coupled ice sheet–solid Earth simulations and discovered a positive (forebulge)...
