Articles | Volume 18, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 15 Apr 2024
| 15 Apr 2024
Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland
Marco Marcer
DTU Sustain, Bygningstorvet, Bygning 115, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Arctic DTU, Siimuup Aqqutaa 32, B-1280, 3911 Sisimiut, Greenland
Pierre-Allain Duvillard
Nāga Geophysics, 12 Allée du Lac de Garde, Le Bourget-du-Lac, France
Université Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, UMR CNRS 5204, EDYTEM, 73370 Le Bourget-du-Lac, France
Soňa Tomaškovičová
DTU Sustain, Bygningstorvet, Bygning 115, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Steffen Ringsø Nielsen
Arctic DTU, Siimuup Aqqutaa 32, B-1280, 3911 Sisimiut, Greenland
KTI Råstofskolen – Greenland School of Minerals and Petroleum, Adammip Aqq. 2, 3911 Sisimiut, Greenland
André Revil
Université Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, UMR CNRS 5204, EDYTEM, 73370 Le Bourget-du-Lac, France
DTU Sustain, Bygningstorvet, Bygning 115, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Related authors
Jacques Mourey, Pascal Lacroix, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Guilhem Marsy, Marco Marcer, Emmanuel Malet, and Ludovic Ravanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 445–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-445-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
More frequent rockfalls in high alpine environments due to climate change are a growing threat to mountaineers. This hazard is particularly important on the classic route up Mont Blanc. Our results show that rockfalls are most frequent during snowmelt periods and the warmest hours of the day, and that mountaineers do not adapt to the local rockfall hazard when planning their ascent. Disseminating the knowledge acquired from our study caused management measures to be implemented for the route.
Marco Marcer, Charlie Serrano, Alexander Brenning, Xavier Bodin, Jason Goetz, and Philippe Schoeneich
The Cryosphere, 13, 141–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-141-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-141-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to assess the occurrence of rock glacier destabilization in the French Alps, a process that causes a landslide-like behaviour of permafrost debris slopes. A significant number of the landforms in the region were found to be experiencing destabilization. Multivariate analysis suggested a link between destabilization occurrence and permafrost thaw induced by climate warming. These results call for a regional characterization of permafrost hazards in the context of climate change.
Soňa Tomaškovičová and Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen
The Cryosphere, 18, 321–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-321-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of a fully coupled modeling framework for simulating the ground thermal regime using only surface measurements to calibrate the thermal model. The heat conduction model is forced by surface ground temperature measurements and calibrated using the field measurements of time lapse apparent electrical resistivity. The resistivity-calibrated thermal model achieves a performance comparable to the traditional calibration of borehole temperature measurements.
Juditha Aga, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4179–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new model scheme for simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments, depending on ground properties and climatic forcing. It is embedded in the CryoGrid community model, a land surface model for the terrestrial cryosphere. We describe the model physics and functionalities, followed by a model validation and a sensitivity study of controlling factors.
Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Johanna Scheer, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Nitin Chaudhary, Bernd Etzelmüller, Simon Filhol, Andreas Kääb, Cas Renette, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Robin B. Zweigel, Léo Martin, Sarah Morard, Matan Ben-Asher, Michael Angelopoulos, Julia Boike, Brian Groenke, Frederieke Miesner, Jan Nitzbon, Paul Overduin, Simone M. Stuenzi, and Moritz Langer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2607–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The CryoGrid community model is a new tool for simulating ground temperatures and the water and ice balance in cold regions. It is a modular design, which makes it possible to test different schemes to simulate, for example, permafrost ground in an efficient way. The model contains tools to simulate frozen and unfrozen ground, snow, glaciers, and other massive ice bodies, as well as water bodies.
William Colgan, Agnes Wansing, Kenneth Mankoff, Mareen Lösing, John Hopper, Keith Louden, Jörg Ebbing, Flemming G. Christiansen, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Lillemor Claesson Liljedahl, Joseph A. MacGregor, Árni Hjartarson, Stefan Bernstein, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sven Fuchs, Juha Hartikainen, Johan Liakka, Robert S. Fausto, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Anders Bjørk, Jens-Ove Naslund, Finn Mørk, Yasmina Martos, Niels Balling, Thomas Funck, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Dorthe Petersen, Ulrik Gregersen, Gregers Dam, Tove Nielsen, Shfaqat A. Khan, and Anja Løkkegaard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2209–2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2209-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2209-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assemble all available geothermal heat flow measurements collected in and around Greenland into a new database. We use this database of point measurements, in combination with other geophysical datasets, to model geothermal heat flow in and around Greenland. Our geothermal heat flow model is generally cooler than previous models of Greenland, especially in southern Greenland. It does not suggest any high geothermal heat flows resulting from Icelandic plume activity over 50 million years ago.
Jacques Mourey, Pascal Lacroix, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Guilhem Marsy, Marco Marcer, Emmanuel Malet, and Ludovic Ravanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 445–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-445-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
More frequent rockfalls in high alpine environments due to climate change are a growing threat to mountaineers. This hazard is particularly important on the classic route up Mont Blanc. Our results show that rockfalls are most frequent during snowmelt periods and the warmest hours of the day, and that mountaineers do not adapt to the local rockfall hazard when planning their ascent. Disseminating the knowledge acquired from our study caused management measures to be implemented for the route.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hanna Lee, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Vladimir Romanovsky, Scott Lamoureux, Donald A. Walker, Sarah Chadburn, Erin Trochim, Lei Cai, Jan Nitzbon, Stephan Jacobi, and Moritz Langer
The Cryosphere, 15, 2451–2471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming puts infrastructure built on permafrost at risk of failure. There is a growing need for appropriate model-based risk assessments. Here we present a modelling study and show an exemplary case of how a gravel road in a cold permafrost environment in Alaska might suffer from degrading permafrost under a scenario of intense climate warming. We use this case study to discuss the broader-scale applicability of our model for simulating future Arctic infrastructure failure.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Michael MacFerrin, Horst Machguth, William T. Colgan, Dirk van As, Achim Heilig, C. Max Stevens, Charalampos Charalampidis, Robert S. Fausto, Elizabeth M. Morris, Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Lora Koenig, Lynn N. Montgomery, Clément Miège, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Jason E. Box
The Cryosphere, 13, 845–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-845-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-845-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The perennial snow, or firn, on the Greenland ice sheet each summer stores part of the meltwater formed at the surface, buffering the ice sheet’s contribution to sea level. We gathered observations of firn air content, indicative of the space available in the firn to retain meltwater, and find that this air content remained stable in cold regions of the firn over the last 65 years but recently decreased significantly in western Greenland.
Marco Marcer, Charlie Serrano, Alexander Brenning, Xavier Bodin, Jason Goetz, and Philippe Schoeneich
The Cryosphere, 13, 141–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-141-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-141-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to assess the occurrence of rock glacier destabilization in the French Alps, a process that causes a landslide-like behaviour of permafrost debris slopes. A significant number of the landforms in the region were found to be experiencing destabilization. Multivariate analysis suggested a link between destabilization occurrence and permafrost thaw induced by climate warming. These results call for a regional characterization of permafrost hazards in the context of climate change.
Jacob C. Yde, Niels T. Knudsen, Jørgen P. Steffensen, Jonathan L. Carrivick, Bent Hasholt, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Christian Kronborg, Nicolaj K. Larsen, Sebastian H. Mernild, Hans Oerter, David H. Roberts, and Andrew J. Russell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1197–1210, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1197-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1197-2016, 2016
Cited articles
Allen, S. K., Gruber, S., and Owens, I. F.: Exploring Steep Bedrock Permafrost and its Relationship with Recent Slope Failures in the Southern Alps of New Zealand, Permafrost Periglac., 356, 345–356, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.658, 2009. a
Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Debernard, J. B., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A., Seland, Ø., Drange, H., Roelandt, C., Seierstad, I. A., Hoose, C., and Kristjánsson, J. E.: The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 687–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013, 2013. a, b
Biskaborn, B. K., Smith, S. L., Noetzli, J., Matthes, H., Vieira, G., Streletskiy, D. A., Schoeneich, P., Romanovsky, V. E., Lewkowicz, A. G., Abramov, A., Allard, M., Boike, J., Cable, W. L., Christiansen, H. H., Delaloye, R., Diekmann, B., Drozdov, D., Etzelmüller, B., Grosse, G., Guglielmin, M., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Isaksen, K., Ishikawa, M., Johansson, M., Johannsson, H., Joo, A., Kaverin, D., Kholodov, A., Konstantinov, P., Kröger, T., Lambiel, C., Lanckman, J. P., Luo, D., Malkova, G., Meiklejohn, I., Moskalenko, N., Oliva, M., Phillips, M., Ramos, M., Sannel, A. B. K., Sergeev, D., Seybold, C., Skryabin, P., Vasiliev, A., Wu, Q., Yoshikawa, K., Zheleznyak, M., and Lantuit, H.: Permafrost is warming at a global scale, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4, 2019. a
Brown, R. J. E.: The distribution of permafrost and its relation to air temperature in Canada and the U.S.S.R., National Research Council, Canada, 13, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic3697, 1960. a
Colgan, W., Rajaram, H., Abdalati, W., McCutchan, C., Mottram, R., Moussavi, M. S., and Grisby, S.: Glacier crevasses: Observations, models, and mass balance implications, Rev. Geophys., 54, 119–161, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000504, 2016. a
COMSOL Inc.: COMSOL Multiphysics, Heat Transfer Module User's Guide, version 5.4, https://doc.comsol.com/5.4/doc/com.comsol.help.heat/HeatTransferModuleUsersGuide.pdf (last access: 6 March 2023), 2015. a
Coperey, A., Revil, A., and Stutz, B.: Electrical Conductivity Versus Temperature in Freezing Conditions: A Field Experiment Using a Basket Geothermal Heat Exchanger, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 14531–14538, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084962, 2019. a
Czekirda, J., Etzelmüller, B., Westermann, S., Isaksen, K., and Magnin, F.: Post-Little Ice Age rock wall permafrost evolution in Norway, The Cryosphere, 17, 2725–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, 2023. a
Daanen, R. P., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Marchenko, S. S., Romanovsky, V. E., Foged, N., Stendel, M., Christensen, J. H., and Hornbech Svendsen, K.: Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models, The Cryosphere, 5, 1043–1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-1043-2011, 2011. a, b
Dahlin, T. and Zhou, B.: A numerical comparison of 2D resistivity imaging with 10 electrode arrays, Geophys. Prospect., 52, 379–398, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2478.2004.00423.x, 2004. a
Delhasse, A., Kittel, C., Amory, C., Hofer, S., van As, D., S. Fausto, R., and Fettweis, X.: Brief communication: Evaluation of the near-surface climate in ERA5 over the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 14, 957–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-957-2020, 2020. a
Duvillard, P.-A., Magnin, F., Revil, A., Legay, A., Ravanel, L., Abdulsamad, F., and Coperey, A.: Temperature distribution in a permafrost-affected rock ridge from conductivity and induced polarization tomography, Geophys. J. Int., 225, 1207–1221, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa597, 2021. a, b, c, d
Etzelmüller, B.: Recent advances in mountain permafrost research, Permafrost Periglac., 24, 99–107, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1772, 2013. a
Etzelmüller, B., Czekirda, J., Magnin, F., Duvillard, P.-A., Ravanel, L., Malet, E., Aspaas, A., Kristensen, L., Skrede, I., Majala, G. D., Jacobs, B., Leinauer, J., Hauck, C., Hilbich, C., Böhme, M., Hermanns, R., Eriksen, H. Ø., Lauknes, T. R., Krautblatter, M., and Westermann, S.: Permafrost in monitored unstable rock slopes in Norway – new insights from temperature and surface velocity measurements, geophysical surveying, and ground temperature modelling, Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022. a, b
Fiddes, J. and Gruber, S.: TopoSUB: a tool for efficient large area numerical modelling in complex topography at sub-grid scales, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1245–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1245-2012, 2012. a
Fiddes, J. and Gruber, S.: TopoSCALE v.1.0: downscaling gridded climate data in complex terrain, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 387–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-387-2014, 2014. a, b, c
Frauenfelder, R., Isaksen, K., Lato, M. J., and Noetzli, J.: Ground thermal and geomechanical conditions in a permafrost-affected high-latitude rock avalanche site (Polvartinden, northern Norway), The Cryosphere, 12, 1531–1550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1531-2018, 2018. a
Gallach, X., Carcaillet, J., Ravanel, L., Deline, P., Ogier, C., Rossi, M., Malet, E., and Garcia-Sellés, D.: Climatic and structural controls on Late-glacial and Holocene rockfall occurrence in high-elevated rock walls of the Mont Blanc massif (Western Alps), Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 45, 3071–3091, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4952, 2020. a
GAPHAZ: Assessment of Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountain Regions – Technical Guidance Document, prepared by: Huggel, C., Frey, H., Huggel, C., Bründl, M., Chiarle, M., Clague, J. J., Cochachin, A., Cook, S., Deline, P., Geertsema, M., Giardino, M., Haeberli, W., Kääb, A., Kargel, J., Klimes, J., Krautblatter, M., McArdell, B., Mergili, M., Petrakov, D., Portocarrero, C., Reynolds, J., and Schneider, D., Standing Group on Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountains (GAPHAZ) of the International Association of Cryospheric Sciences (IACS) and the International Permafrost Association (IPA), Zurich, Switzerland, p. 72, https://www.gaphaz.org/files/Assessment_Glacier_Permafrost_Hazards_Mountain_Regions.pdf. (last access: 27 March 2024), 2017. a
Gruber, S.: Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation, The Cryosphere, 6, 221–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-221-2012, 2012. a
Gruber, S., Hoelzle, M., and Haeberli, W.: Rock-wall temperatures in the Alps: Modelling their topographic distribution and regional differences, Permafrost Periglac., 15, 299–307, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.501, 2004. a, b, c
Guerin, A., Ravanel, L., Matasci, B., Jaboyedoff, M., and Deline, P.: The three-stage rock failure dynamics of the Drus (Mont Blanc massif, France) since the June 2005 large event, Sci. Rep., 10, 17330, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-74162-1, 2020. a
Haberkorn, A., Wever, N., Hoelzle, M., Phillips, M., Kenner, R., Bavay, M., and Lehning, M.: Distributed snow and rock temperature modelling in steep rock walls using Alpine3D, The Cryosphere, 11, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-585-2017, 2017. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J. N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hilbich, C., Hauck, C., Hoelzle, M., Scherler, M., Schudel, L., Völksch, I., Vonder Mühll, D., and Mäusbacher, R.: Monitoring mountain permafrost evolution using electrical resistivity tomography: A 7-year study of seasonal, annual, and long-term variations at Schilthorn, Swiss Alps, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 113, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JF000799, 2008. a
Hipp, T., Etzelmüller, B., and Westermann, S.: Permafrost in Alpine Rock Faces from Jotunheimen and Hurrungane, Southern Norway, Permafrost Periglac., 25, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1799, 2014. a
Isaksen, K., Lutz, J., Sørensen, A. M., Godøy, Ø., Ferrighi, L., Eastwood, S., and Aaboe, S.: Advances in operational permafrost monitoring on Svalbard and in Norway, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 9, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8e1c, 2022. a
Kalsbeek, F., Pidgeon, R. T., and Taylor, P. N.: Nagssugtoqidian mobile belt of West Greenland: cryptic 1850 Ma suture between two Archaean continents – chemical and isotopic evidence, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 85, 365–385, 1987. a
Keuschnig, M., Krautblatter, M., Hartmeyer, I., Fuss, C., and Schrott, L.: Automated Electrical Resistivity Tomography Testing for Early Warning in Unstable Permafrost Rock Walls Around Alpine Infrastructure, Permafrost Periglac., 28, 158–171, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1916, 2017. a
Kneisel, C.: Assessment of subsurface lithology in mountain environments using 2D resistivity imaging, Geomorphology, 80, 32–44, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2005.09.012, 2006. a
Krautblatter, M. and Hauck, C.: Electrical resistivity tomography monitoring of permafrost in solid rock walls, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000546, 2007. a
Krautblatter, M., Verleysdonk, S., Flores-Orozco, A., and Kemna, A.: Temperature-calibrated imaging of seasonal changes in permafrost rock walls by quantitative electrical resistivity tomography (Zugspitze, German/Austrian Alps), J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 115, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001209, 2010. a
Krautblatter, M., Funk, D., and Günzel, F. K.: Why permafrost rocks become unstable: A rock-ice-mechanical model in time and space, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 38, 876–887, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3374, 2013. a
Legay, A., Magnin, F., and Ravanel, L.: Rock temperature prior to failure: Analysis of 209 rockfall events in the Mont Blanc massif (Western European Alps), Permafrost Periglac., 32, 520–536, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2110, 2021. a
Loke, M. H. and Barker, R. D.: Rapid least-squares inversion of apparent resistivity pseudosections by a quasi-Newton method, Geophys. Prospect., 44, 131–152, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2478.1996.tb00142.x, 1996. a
Magnin, F., Deline, P., Ravanel, L., Noetzli, J., and Pogliotti, P.: Thermal characteristics of permafrost in the steep alpine rock walls of the Aiguille du Midi (Mont Blanc Massif, 3842 m a.s.l), The Cryosphere, 9, 109–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-109-2015, 2015a. a, b
Magnin, F., Krautblatter, M., Deline, P., Ravanel, L., Malet, E., and Bevington, A.: Determination of warm, sensitive permafrost areas in near-vertical rockwalls and evaluation of distributed models by electrical resistivity tomograph, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 120, 2452–2475, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JF003351, 2015b. a, b, c
Magnin, F., Etzelmüller, B., Westermann, S., Isaksen, K., Hilger, P., and Hermanns, R. L.: Permafrost distribution in steep rock slopes in Norway: measurements, statistical modelling and implications for geomorphological processes, Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 1019–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1019-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d, e
Magnin, F., Josnin, J., Magnin, F., Water, J. J., Permafrost, R., and Coupling, A.: Water Flows in Rockwall Permafrost : a Numerical Approach Coupling Hydrological and Thermal Processes, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 126, 11, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006394, 2020. a, b
Marcer, M., Stentoft, P. A., Bjerre, E., Cimoli, E., Bjørk, A., Stenseng, L., and Machguth, H.: Three Decades of Volume Change of a Small Greenlandic Glacier Using Ground Penetrating Radar, Structure from Motion, and Aerial Photogrammetry, Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 49, 411–425, https://doi.org/10.1657/AAAR0016-049, 2017. a
Marcer, M., Duvillard, P.-A., Tomaškovičová, S., Nielsen, S. R., Revil, A., and Ingeman-Nielsen, T.: Dataset: Bedrock Permafrost in Sisimiut, West Greenland, Technical University of Denmark [data set], https://doi.org/10.11583/DTU.21215591.v1, 2024. a
Myhra, K. S., Westermann, S., and Etzelmüller, B.: Modelled Distribution and Temporal Evolution of Permafrost in Steep Rock Walls Along a Latitudinal Transect in Norway by CryoGrid 2D, Permafrost Periglac., 182, 172–182, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1884, 2017. a
Noetzli, J. and Gruber, S.: Transient thermal effects in Alpine permafrost, The Cryosphere, 3, 85–99, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-3-85-2009, 2009. a, b
Noetzli, J., Gruber, S., Kohl, T., Salzmann, N., and Haeberli, W.: Three-dimensional distribution and evolution of permafrost temperatures in idealized high-mountain topography, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000545, 2007. a
Obu, J., Westermann, S., Bartsch, A., Berdnikov, N., Christiansen, H. H., Dashtseren, A., Delaloye, R., Elberling, B., Etzelmüller, B., Kholodov, A., Khomutov, A., Kääb, A., Leibman, M. O., Lewkowicz, A. G., Panda, S. K., Romanovsky, V., Way, R. G., Westergaard-Nielsen, A., Wu, T., Yamkhin, J., and Zou, D.: Northern Hemisphere permafrost map based on TTOP modelling for 2000–2016 at 1 km scale, Earth-Sci. Rev., 193, 299–316, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.04.023, 2019. a, b, c
Parr, C., Sturm, M., and Larsen, C.: Snowdrift Landscape Patterns : An Arctic Investigation, Water Resour. Res., 56, 12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027823, 2020. a
Patton, A. I., Rathburn, S. L., and Capps, D. M.: Landslide response to climate change in permafrost regions, Geomorphology, 340, 116–128, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.04.029, 2019. a, b
Pellet, C. and Noetzli, J.: Swiss Permafrost Bulletin 2018/2019, Permos 2020 (Swiss Permafrost Monitoring Network), 1–20, https://doi.org/10.13093/permos-2019-01, 2020. a
Porter, C., Morin, P., Howat, I., Noh, M.-J., Bates, B., Peterman, K., Keesey, S., Schlenk, M., Gardiner, J., Tomko, K., Willis, M., Kelleher, C., Cloutier, M., Husby, E., Foga, S., Nakamura, H., Platson, M., Wethington, M., Williamson, C., Bauer, G., Enos, J., Arnold, G., Kramer, W., Becker, P., Doshi, A., D'Souza, C., Cummens, P., Laurier, F., and Bojesen, M.: ArcticDEM, Version 3, J. Geospat. Inform. Sci., 3, 123–135, https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/OHHUKH, 2018. a, b, c
QGIS: QGIS Geographic Information System, http://QGIS.org (last access: 22 September 2023), 2023. a
Ravanel, L. and Deline, P.: Climate influence on rockfalls in high-alpine steep rockwalls: The north side of the aiguilles de chamonix (mont blanc massif) since the end of the “Little Ice Age”, Holocene, 21, 357–365, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683610374887, 2011. a, b, c
Richards, K., Revil, A., Jardani, A., Henderson, F., Batzle, M., and Haas, A.: Pattern of shallow ground water flow at Mount Princeton Hot Springs, Colorado, using geoelectrical methods, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 198, 217–232, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.09.001, 2010. a
Rico, I., Magnin, F., López Moreno, J. I., Serrano, E., Alonso-González, E., Revuelto, J., Hughes-Allen, L., and Gómez-Lende, M.: First evidence of rock wall permafrost in the Pyrenees (Vignemale peak, 3,298 m a.s.l., 42°46′16″N/0°08′33″W), Permafrost Periglac., 32, 673–680, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2130, 2021. a
Scandroglio, R., Draebing, D., Offer, M., and Krautblatter, M.: 4D quantification of alpine permafrost degradation in steep rock walls using a laboratory-calibrated electrical resistivity tomography approach, Near Surf. Geophys., 19, 241–260, https://doi.org/10.1002/nsg.12149, 2021. a
Schmidt, J. U., Etzelmüller, B., Schuler, T. V., Magnin, F., Boike, J., Langer, M., and Westermann, S.: Surface temperatures and their influence on the permafrost thermal regime in high-Arctic rock walls on Svalbard, The Cryosphere, 15, 2491–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, 2021. a, b
Stocker-Mittaz, C., Hoelzle, M., and Haeberli, W.: Modelling alpine permafrost distribution based on energy-balance data: a first step, Permafrost Periglac., 13, 271–282, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.426, 2002. a
Strzelecki, M. C. and Jaskólski, M. W.: Arctic tsunamis threaten coastal landscapes and communities – survey of Karrat Isfjord 2017 tsunami effects in Nuugaatsiaq, western Greenland, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2521–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2521-2020, 2020. a
Svennevig, K.: Preliminary landslide mapping in Greenland, GEUS Bulletin, 43, 1–5, 2019. a
Svennevig, K., Hermanns, R. L., Keiding, M., Binder, D., Citterio, M., Dahl-Jensen, T., Mertl, S., Sørensen, E. V., and Voss, P. H.: A large frozen debris avalanche entraining warming permafrost ground–the June 2021 Assapaat landslide, West Greenland, Landslides, 19, 2549–2567, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-022-01922-7, 2022. a
Svennevig, K., Keiding, M., Korsgaard, N. J., Lucas, A., Owen, M., Poulsen, M. D., Priebe, J., Sørensen, E. V., and Morino, C.: Uncovering a 70-year-old permafrost degradation induced disaster in the Arctic, the 1952 Niiortuut landslide-tsunami in central West Greenland, Sci. Total Environ., 859, 160110, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160110, 2023. a
Walls, M., Hvidberg, M., Kleist, M., Knudsen, P., Mørch, P., Egede, P., Taylor, G., Phillips, N., Yamasaki, S., and Watanabe, T.: Hydrological instability and archaeological impact in Northwest Greenland: Sudden mass movement events signal new concerns for circumpolar archaeology, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 248, 106600, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106600, 2020. a
Walter, F., Amann, F., Kos, A., Kenner, R., Phillips, M., de Preux, A., Huss, M., Tognacca, C., Clinton, J., Diehl, T., and Bonanomi, Y.: Direct observations of a three million cubic meter rock-slope collapse with almost immediate initiation of ensuing debris flows, Geomorphology, 351, 106933, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106933, 2020. a
Westermann, S., Langer, M., Boike, J., Heikenfeld, M., Peter, M., Etzelmüller, B., and Krinner, G.: Simulating the thermal regime and thaw processes of ice-rich permafrost ground with the land-surface model CryoGrid 3, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 523–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-523-2016, 2016. a
Short summary
This study models present and future rock wall temperatures in the mountains near Sisimiut, creating knowledge on mountain permafrost in Greenland for the first time. Bedrock is mostly frozen but also has temperatures near 0 oC, making it very sensitive to climate changes. Future climatic scenarios indicate a reduction in frozen rock wall areas. Since mountain permafrost thaw is linked to an increase in landslides, these results call for more efforts addressing mountain permafrost in Greenland.
This study models present and future rock wall temperatures in the mountains near Sisimiut,...
