Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 19 Dec 2023
| 19 Dec 2023
Surging of a Hudson Strait-scale ice stream: subglacial hydrology matters but the process details mostly do not
Department of Physics & Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John's, Canada
Lev Tarasov
Department of Physics & Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John's, Canada
Related authors
Matthew Drew and Lev Tarasov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-620, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
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We model the sediment-ice-climate system over North America for the last 2.58 Myr showing that ice sheets are capable of excavating features the size of the Hudson bay. This work provides a basis for reconstructing past landscapes important to climate modelling efforts, helping us to understand past earth system change.
Benoit S. Lecavalier and Lev Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 19, 919–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-919-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-919-2025, 2025
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We present the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) over the last 200 kyr by means of a history-matching analysis where an updated observational database constrained ~ 10 000 model simulations. During peak glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the best-fitting sub-ensemble of AIS simulations reached an excess grounded ice volume relative to the present of 9.2 to 26.5 m equivalent sea level relative to the present. The LGM AIS volume can help resolve the LGM missing-ice problem.
Marilena Sophie Geng, Lev Tarasov, and April Sue Dalton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-495, 2025
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We used a fully coupled ice-climate model to simulate the last two glacial inceptions, and compare the ensemble simulated ice sheet evolution to limited geological data. Our results show that Northern Hemisphere ice sheets grew rapidly, sometimes merging in ways not previously assumed and that capturing one glacial inception does not guarantee capturing another. These findings improve our understanding of ice-age dynamics and highlight challenges in predicting past and future climate evolution.
Lev Tarasov, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Kevin Hank, and David Pollard
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-175, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-175, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
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We document the glacial system model (GSM), a 3D glaciological ice sheet systems model specifically designed for large ensemble modelling in glacial cycle contexts. The model is distinguished by the breadth of relevant processes represented for this context. This ranges from meltwater surface drainage with proglacial lake formation to state-of-the-art subglacial sediment production/transport/deposition. The other key distinguishing design feature is attention to addressing process uncertainties.
Benoit S. Lecavalier and Lev Tarasov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3268, 2024
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To simulate the past evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) during past warm and cold periods, a modelling analysis was performed that compared thousands of AIS simulations to a large collection of field observations. As the AIS changes, so does the surface load which leads to crustal deformation, gravitational and sea-level change. The present-day rate of bedrock deformation due to past AIS changes is used with satellite observations to infer AIS changes due to contemporary climate change.
Ryan Love, Glenn A. Milne, Parviz Ajourlou, Soran Parang, Lev Tarasov, and Konstantin Latychev
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8535–8551, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8535-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8535-2024, 2024
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A relatively recent advance in glacial isostatic adjustment modeling has been the development of models that include 3D Earth structure, as opposed to 1D structure. However, a major limitation is the computational expense. We have developed a method using artificial neural networks to emulate the influence of 3D Earth models to affordably constrain the viscosity parameter space. Our results indicate that the misfits are of a scale such that useful predictions of relative sea level can be made.
Kevin Hank and Lev Tarasov
Clim. Past, 20, 2499–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2499-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2499-2024, 2024
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The ice-rafted debris signature of Heinrich events in marine sedimentary cores is usually attributed to massive ice discharge from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. However, the driving mechanism of this pulsed discharge remains unclear. We compare three previously proposed hypotheses and examine the role of relevant system processes. We find ice stream surge cycling is the most likely mechanism, but its character is sensitive to both the geothermal heat flux and the form of the basal drag law.
Matthew Drew and Lev Tarasov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-620, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We model the sediment-ice-climate system over North America for the last 2.58 Myr showing that ice sheets are capable of excavating features the size of the Hudson bay. This work provides a basis for reconstructing past landscapes important to climate modelling efforts, helping us to understand past earth system change.
Brian R. Crow, Lev Tarasov, Michael Schulz, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 20, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, 2024
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An abnormally warm period around 400,000 years ago is thought to have resulted in a large melt event for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using a sequence of climate model simulations connected to an ice model, we estimate a 50 % melt of Greenland compared to today. Importantly, we explore how the exact methodology of connecting the temperatures and precipitation from the climate model to the ice sheet model can influence these results and show that common methods could introduce errors.
Ryan Love, Lev Tarasov, Heather Andres, Alan Condron, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, 2023
Preprint archived
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Freshwater injection into bands across the North Atlantic are a mainstay of climate modelling when investigating topics such as climate change or the role of glacial runoff in the glacial climate system. However, this approach is unrealistic and results in a systematic bias in the climate response to a given flux of freshwater. We evaluate the magnitude of this bias by comparison to two other approaches for introducing freshwater into a coupled climate model setup for glacial conditions.
Kevin Hank, Lev Tarasov, and Elisa Mantelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5627–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, 2023
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Physically meaningful modeling of geophysical system instabilities is numerically challenging, given the potential effects of purely numerical artifacts. Here we explore the sensitivity of ice stream surge activation to numerical and physical model aspects. We find that surge characteristics exhibit a resolution dependency but converge at higher horizontal grid resolutions and are significantly affected by the incorporation of bed thermal and sub-glacial hydrology models.
Benoit S. Lecavalier, Lev Tarasov, Greg Balco, Perry Spector, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Christo Buizert, Catherine Ritz, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, Robert Mulvaney, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Michael J. Bentley, and Jonathan Bamber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3573–3596, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023, 2023
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution constraint database version 2 (AntICE2) consists of a large variety of observations that constrain the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last glacial cycle. This includes observations of past ice sheet extent, past ice thickness, past relative sea level, borehole temperature profiles, and present-day bedrock displacement rates. The database is intended to improve our understanding of past Antarctic changes and for ice sheet model calibrations.
Lev Tarasov and Michael Goldstein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1410, 2023
Preprint archived
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This overview: 1. Illustrates how current climate and/or ice sheet model-based inferences about the past tend to have little interpretable value about the real world given inadequate accounting of uncertainties. 2. Explains Bayesian inference to a non-statistical community. 3. Sketches out some tractable inferential steps for computationally expensive models in a way that meaningfully accounts for uncertainties. 4. Lays out some steps for the community to move forward.
Lev Tarasov and Michael Goldstein
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-145, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
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This review: 1. Illustrates how current climate and/or ice sheet model-based inferences about the past tend to have limited interpretable value about the real world given inadequate accounting of uncertainties. 2. Explains Bayesian inference to a non-statistical community. 3. Sketches out tractable Bayesian inference for computationally expensive models in a way that meaningfully accounts for uncertainties. 4. Lays out some steps for the community to move forward.
Ryan Love, Heather J. Andres, Alan Condron, and Lev Tarasov
Clim. Past, 17, 2327–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2327-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2327-2021, 2021
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Freshwater, in the form of glacial runoff, is hypothesized to play a critical role in centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability and climate transitions. We track the routing of glaciologically constrained freshwater volumes in glacial ocean simulations. Our simulations capture important generally not well-represented small-scale features (boundary currents, eddies). We show that the dilution of freshwater as it is transported to key climate regions reduces the freshening to 20 %–60 %.
Taimaz Bahadory, Lev Tarasov, and Heather Andres
Clim. Past, 17, 397–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-397-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-397-2021, 2021
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We present an ensemble of last glacial inception simulations using a fully coupled ice–climate model for the Northern Hemisphere. The ensemble largely captures inferred ice volume changes within proxy uncertainties. Notable features include an ice bridge across Davis Strait and between Greenland and Iceland. Via an equilibrium climate response experiment, we also demonstrate the potential value of fully coupled ice–climate modelling of last glacial inception to constrain future climate change.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
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Short summary
The interaction of fast-flowing regions of continental ice sheets with their beds governs how quickly they slide and therefore flow. The coupling of fast ice to its bed is controlled by the pressure of meltwater at its base. It is currently poorly understood how the physical details of these hydrologic systems affect ice speedup. Using numerical models we find, surprisingly, that they largely do not, except for the duration of the surge. This suggests that cheap models are sufficient.
The interaction of fast-flowing regions of continental ice sheets with their beds governs how...
