Articles | Volume 17, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Sep 2023
Research article |
| 07 Sep 2023
| 07 Sep 2023
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded
Ronja Reese
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Julius Garbe
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Emily A. Hill
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
Benoît Urruty
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Kaitlin A. Naughten
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Olivier Gagliardini
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Gaël Durand
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Fabien Gillet-Chaulet
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
David Chandler
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Petra M. Langebroek
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Ricarda Winkelmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
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Cited
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
- Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) J. De Rydt et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024
- The physical science basis of climate change empowering transformations, insights from the IPCC AR6 for a climate research agenda grounded in ethics V. Masson-Delmotte & J. Males 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000451
- Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations A. Juarez-Martinez et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024
- Ocean warming as a trigger for irreversible retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet E. Hill et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02134-8
- The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet C. Wirths et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024
- The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system F. McCormack et al. 10.1525/elementa.2024.00036
- Glacial–interglacial Circumpolar Deep Water temperatures during the last 800 000 years: estimates from a synthesis of bottom water temperature reconstructions D. Chandler & P. Langebroek 10.5194/cp-20-2055-2024
- Sustained ocean cooling insufficient to reverse sea level rise from Antarctica A. Alevropoulos-Borrill et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01297-8
- Mechanical Properties of Freshwater Ice I. Baker & A. Ogunmolasuyi 10.1021/acs.jpcc.4c05171
- Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector D. Bett et al. 10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
- Polarfuchs (Kolumne): Die Antarktis im Computer – wie funktionieren Computermodelle? L. Nicola 10.5194/polf-91-105-2023
- Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y
- Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica J. De Rydt & K. Naughten 10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024
- Hysteresis of idealized, instability-prone outlet glaciers in response to pinning-point buttressing variation J. Feldmann et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024
- Limited Impact of Thwaites Ice Shelf on Future Ice Loss From Antarctica G. Gudmundsson et al. 10.1029/2023GL102880
- Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise J. Sutter et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01738-w
- The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry E. Hill et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
- Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) J. De Rydt et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024
- The physical science basis of climate change empowering transformations, insights from the IPCC AR6 for a climate research agenda grounded in ethics V. Masson-Delmotte & J. Males 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000451
- Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations A. Juarez-Martinez et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024
- Ocean warming as a trigger for irreversible retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet E. Hill et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02134-8
- The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet C. Wirths et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024
- The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system F. McCormack et al. 10.1525/elementa.2024.00036
- Glacial–interglacial Circumpolar Deep Water temperatures during the last 800 000 years: estimates from a synthesis of bottom water temperature reconstructions D. Chandler & P. Langebroek 10.5194/cp-20-2055-2024
- Sustained ocean cooling insufficient to reverse sea level rise from Antarctica A. Alevropoulos-Borrill et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01297-8
- Mechanical Properties of Freshwater Ice I. Baker & A. Ogunmolasuyi 10.1021/acs.jpcc.4c05171
- Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector D. Bett et al. 10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
- Polarfuchs (Kolumne): Die Antarktis im Computer – wie funktionieren Computermodelle? L. Nicola 10.5194/polf-91-105-2023
- Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y
- Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica J. De Rydt & K. Naughten 10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024
- Hysteresis of idealized, instability-prone outlet glaciers in response to pinning-point buttressing variation J. Feldmann et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Limited Impact of Thwaites Ice Shelf on Future Ice Loss From Antarctica G. Gudmundsson et al. 10.1029/2023GL102880
- Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise J. Sutter et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01738-w
- The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry E. Hill et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023
Latest update: 26 Dec 2024
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We...
