Articles | Volume 17, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Sep 2023
Research article |
| 07 Sep 2023
| 07 Sep 2023
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded
Ronja Reese
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Julius Garbe
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Emily A. Hill
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
Benoît Urruty
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Kaitlin A. Naughten
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Olivier Gagliardini
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Gaël Durand
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Fabien Gillet-Chaulet
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
David Chandler
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Petra M. Langebroek
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Ricarda Winkelmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
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43 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024
- The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry E. Hill et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023
- Antarctica in 2025: Drivers of deep uncertainty in projected ice loss H. Fricker et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adt9619
- Brief communication: Sensitivity of Antarctic ice shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models E. Lambert & C. Burgard https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025
- Active and Passive Seismic Surveys over the Grounding Zone of Eastwind Glacier, Antarctica R. Agnew et al. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220250024
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
- Sub-shelf melt pattern and ice sheet mass loss governed by meltwater flow below ice shelves F. Jesse et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3849-2025
- Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations A. Juarez-Martinez et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024
- Competing processes determine the long-term impact of basal friction parameterizations for Antarctic mass loss T. van den Akker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1217-2026
- The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet C. Wirths et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024
- The achievability of low-emission IPCC sea-level rise scenarios H. Millman et al. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2024.0565
- Sustained ocean cooling insufficient to reverse sea level rise from Antarctica A. Alevropoulos-Borrill et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01297-8
- Quantifying temperature-sliding inconsistency in thermomechanical coupling: a comparative analysis of geothermal heat flux datasets at Totten Glacier J. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-835-2026
- The influence of subglacial lake discharge on Thwaites Glacier ice-shelf melting and grounding-line retreat N. Gourmelen et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57417-1
- Bathymetry-constrained warm-mode melt estimates derived from analysing oceanic gateways in Antarctica L. Nicola et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025
- Bathymetry-constrained impact of relative sea-level change on basal melting in Antarctica M. Kreuzer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
- Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment N. Abram et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09349-5
- Hysteresis of idealized, instability-prone outlet glaciers in response to pinning-point buttressing variation J. Feldmann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024
- Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability J. Caillet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
- Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) J. De Rydt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024
- Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering: a critical assessment of proposed concepts and future prospects M. Siegert et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsci.2025.1527393
- The physical science basis of climate change empowering transformations, insights from the IPCC AR6 for a climate research agenda grounded in ethics V. Masson-Delmotte & J. Males https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000451
- Human Versus Natural Influences on Climate and Biodiversity: The Carbon Dioxide Connection W. Davis https://doi.org/10.3390/sci7040152
- From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet V. Coulon et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w
- Ocean warming as a trigger for irreversible retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet E. Hill et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02134-8
- The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system F. McCormack et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2024.00036
- Glacial–interglacial Circumpolar Deep Water temperatures during the last 800 000 years: estimates from a synthesis of bottom water temperature reconstructions D. Chandler & P. Langebroek https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2055-2024
- Mechanical Properties of Freshwater Ice I. Baker & A. Ogunmolasuyi https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jpcc.4c05171
- Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector D. Bett et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024
- Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss D. Chandler et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02366-2
- Calibrated sea level contribution from the Amundsen Sea sector, West Antarctica, under RCP8.5 and Paris 2C scenarios S. Rosier et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2527-2025
- Comparison of calibration methods of a PICO basal ice shelf melt module implemented in the GRISLI v2.0 ice sheet model M. Menthon et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7297-2025
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
- Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets C. Stokes et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w
- The effect of the present-day imbalance on schematic and climate forced simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1405-2026
- Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming R. Winkelmann et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02554-0
- A new paradigm for understanding Earth’s marine ice sheets O. Sergienko et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-01941-2
- Polarfuchs (Kolumne): Die Antarktis im Computer – wie funktionieren Computermodelle? L. Nicola https://doi.org/10.5194/polf-91-105-2023
- Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y
- Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica J. De Rydt & K. Naughten https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024
- Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 26 Jun 2026
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We...
