Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 May 2023
Research article |
| 23 May 2023
| 23 May 2023
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate
Philipp de Vrese
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
The Ocean in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Goran Georgievski
The Ocean in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Jesus Fidel Gonzalez Rouco
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain
Dirk Notz
Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics and Natural Sciences, University of Hamburg, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Tobias Stacke
The Ocean in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Norman Julius Steinert
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, NORCE Climate and Environment, Bergen, 5007, Norway
Stiig Wilkenskjeld
The Ocean in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Victor Brovkin
The Ocean in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
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Cited
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
- Dynamic soil columns simulate Arctic redox biogeochemistry and carbon release during changes in water saturation E. Berns-Herrboldt et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-83556-4
- Potential vegetation greenness changes in the permafrost areas over the Tibetan Plateau under future climate warming R. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104833
- Plant and soil characteristics as key predictors for future agricultural drought A. Samantaray et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adccdb
- Evaluation of the coupling of EMACv2.55 to the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4 A. Martin et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-5705-2024
- Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review N. Wunderling et al. 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
- Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models N. Steinert et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7
- Advancing hydrological understanding in cold regions: development and application of the WEP model for lateral flow estimation in the Great Lakes Depression of Mongolia B. Dorjsuren et al. 10.2166/nh.2025.149
- Permafrost and Freshwater Systems in the Arctic as Tipping Elements of the Climate System V. Brovkin et al. 10.1007/s10712-025-09885-9
- Thermodynamic and hydrological drivers of the soil and bedrock thermal regimes in central Spain F. García-Pereira et al. 10.5194/soil-10-1-2024
- Future permafrost degradation under climate change in a headwater catchment of central Siberia: quantitative assessment with a mechanistic modelling approach T. Xavier et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5865-2024
- Sensitivity of Arctic CH4 emissions to landscape wetness diminished by atmospheric feedbacks P. de Vrese et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01715-3
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
- Dynamic soil columns simulate Arctic redox biogeochemistry and carbon release during changes in water saturation E. Berns-Herrboldt et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-83556-4
- Potential vegetation greenness changes in the permafrost areas over the Tibetan Plateau under future climate warming R. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104833
- Plant and soil characteristics as key predictors for future agricultural drought A. Samantaray et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adccdb
- Evaluation of the coupling of EMACv2.55 to the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4 A. Martin et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-5705-2024
- Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review N. Wunderling et al. 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
- Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models N. Steinert et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7
- Advancing hydrological understanding in cold regions: development and application of the WEP model for lateral flow estimation in the Great Lakes Depression of Mongolia B. Dorjsuren et al. 10.2166/nh.2025.149
- Permafrost and Freshwater Systems in the Arctic as Tipping Elements of the Climate System V. Brovkin et al. 10.1007/s10712-025-09885-9
- Thermodynamic and hydrological drivers of the soil and bedrock thermal regimes in central Spain F. García-Pereira et al. 10.5194/soil-10-1-2024
- Future permafrost degradation under climate change in a headwater catchment of central Siberia: quantitative assessment with a mechanistic modelling approach T. Xavier et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5865-2024
- Sensitivity of Arctic CH4 emissions to landscape wetness diminished by atmospheric feedbacks P. de Vrese et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01715-3
Latest update: 29 May 2025
Short summary
The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone. We used an adapted version of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to show that differences in the representation of the soil hydrology in permafrost-affected regions could help explain a large part of this inter-model spread and have pronounced impacts on important elements of Earth systems as far to the south as the tropics.
The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the...
