Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Apr 2023
Research article |
| 04 Apr 2023
| 04 Apr 2023
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea
Ole Rieke
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
now at: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, TAS, Hobart, Australia
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Jakob Simon Dörr
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
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Cited
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Significant contribution of internal variability to recent Barents–Kara sea ice loss in winter P. Siew et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01582-6
- Summer zooplankton assemblages in the Barents Sea: Spatial variations and effects of environmental conditions as revealed from in situ and satellite data V. Dvoretsky & A. Dvoretsky https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103417
- The future Barents Sea—A synthesis of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological changes toward 2050 and 2100 M. Årthun et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2024.00046
- Fluctuations of net primary production along a standard transect in the Barents Sea and their relationships with environmental factors A. Dvoretsky & V. Dvoretsky https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2025.123177
- Extreme mismatch between phytoplankton and grazers during Arctic spring blooms and consequences for the pelagic food-web P. Renaud et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103365
- The linkage between autumn Barents-Kara sea ice and European cold winter extremes D. Cai et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1345763
- Quantifying the relative roles of dynamic, atmospheric thermodynamic, and oceanic thermodynamic forcings on Arctic sea ice from cold-season cyclones X. Lv et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-08021-y
- Cyclone Impacts on Sea Ice Concentration in the Atlantic Arctic Ocean: Annual Cycle and Recent Changes L. Aue & A. Rinke https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104657
- Cold season Arctic strong cyclones enhance Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean Y. Liu & Y. He https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0518
- Isotopic signatures of snow, sea ice, and surface seawater in the central Arctic Ocean during the MOSAiC expedition M. Mellat et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2023.00078
- Regional climate imprints of recent historical changes in anthropogenic Near Term Climate Forcers A. Santos-Espeso et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2161-2025
- Rapid ice change events in the Barents Sea G. Simpkins https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00437-6
- Year-round acoustic presence of fin whales southwest of Svalbard suggests mixed-use habitat for feeding and breeding A. Szesciorka et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-21785-x
- Effects of water temperature on zooplankton abundance and biomass in the southwestern Barents Sea: Implications for Arctic monitoring and management V. Dvoretsky & A. Dvoretsky https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107506
- Surging glaciers in Svalbard: Observing their distribution, characteristics and evolution W. Harcourt et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105410
- Still Arctic?—The changing Barents Sea S. Gerland et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2022.00088
- Atlantic water recirculation in the northern Barents Sea affects winter sea ice extent F. Heukamp et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59992-9
- Filling knowledge gaps in Arctic marine biodiversity: Environment, plankton, and benthos of Franz Josef Land, Barents Sea A. Dvoretsky & V. Dvoretsky https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2023.106987
- Evaluating the E3SMv2-MPAS ocean–sea ice coupled unstructured model in the Arctic: Atlantification processes and systematic biases X. Lv et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8535-2025
- Impact of Spring Barents Sea Ice on Summer Tibetan Plateau Precipitation Y. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-4383-z
- Foreseeable Co-occurring O3 and PM2.5 Pollution in Eastern China Driven by Climate Teleconnections X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acsenvironau.5c00164
- An emerging pathway of Atlantic Water to the Barents Sea through the Svalbard Archipelago: drivers and variability K. Kalhagen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-981-2024
- Atmospheric warming during rapid sea ice loss over the Barents–Kara seas in winter X. Hu et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4886
- Seasonality and scenario dependence of rapid Arctic sea ice loss events in CMIP6 simulations A. Sticker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3259-2025
- Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00724-4
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Significant contribution of internal variability to recent Barents–Kara sea ice loss in winter P. Siew et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01582-6
- Summer zooplankton assemblages in the Barents Sea: Spatial variations and effects of environmental conditions as revealed from in situ and satellite data V. Dvoretsky & A. Dvoretsky https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103417
- The future Barents Sea—A synthesis of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological changes toward 2050 and 2100 M. Årthun et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2024.00046
- Fluctuations of net primary production along a standard transect in the Barents Sea and their relationships with environmental factors A. Dvoretsky & V. Dvoretsky https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2025.123177
- Extreme mismatch between phytoplankton and grazers during Arctic spring blooms and consequences for the pelagic food-web P. Renaud et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103365
- The linkage between autumn Barents-Kara sea ice and European cold winter extremes D. Cai et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1345763
- Quantifying the relative roles of dynamic, atmospheric thermodynamic, and oceanic thermodynamic forcings on Arctic sea ice from cold-season cyclones X. Lv et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-08021-y
- Cyclone Impacts on Sea Ice Concentration in the Atlantic Arctic Ocean: Annual Cycle and Recent Changes L. Aue & A. Rinke https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104657
- Cold season Arctic strong cyclones enhance Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean Y. Liu & Y. He https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0518
- Isotopic signatures of snow, sea ice, and surface seawater in the central Arctic Ocean during the MOSAiC expedition M. Mellat et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2023.00078
- Regional climate imprints of recent historical changes in anthropogenic Near Term Climate Forcers A. Santos-Espeso et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2161-2025
- Rapid ice change events in the Barents Sea G. Simpkins https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00437-6
- Year-round acoustic presence of fin whales southwest of Svalbard suggests mixed-use habitat for feeding and breeding A. Szesciorka et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-21785-x
- Effects of water temperature on zooplankton abundance and biomass in the southwestern Barents Sea: Implications for Arctic monitoring and management V. Dvoretsky & A. Dvoretsky https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107506
- Surging glaciers in Svalbard: Observing their distribution, characteristics and evolution W. Harcourt et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105410
- Still Arctic?—The changing Barents Sea S. Gerland et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2022.00088
- Atlantic water recirculation in the northern Barents Sea affects winter sea ice extent F. Heukamp et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59992-9
- Filling knowledge gaps in Arctic marine biodiversity: Environment, plankton, and benthos of Franz Josef Land, Barents Sea A. Dvoretsky & V. Dvoretsky https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2023.106987
- Evaluating the E3SMv2-MPAS ocean–sea ice coupled unstructured model in the Arctic: Atlantification processes and systematic biases X. Lv et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8535-2025
- Impact of Spring Barents Sea Ice on Summer Tibetan Plateau Precipitation Y. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-4383-z
- Foreseeable Co-occurring O3 and PM2.5 Pollution in Eastern China Driven by Climate Teleconnections X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acsenvironau.5c00164
- An emerging pathway of Atlantic Water to the Barents Sea through the Svalbard Archipelago: drivers and variability K. Kalhagen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-981-2024
- Atmospheric warming during rapid sea ice loss over the Barents–Kara seas in winter X. Hu et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4886
- Seasonality and scenario dependence of rapid Arctic sea ice loss events in CMIP6 simulations A. Sticker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3259-2025
- Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00724-4
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 09 Jun 2026
Short summary
The Barents Sea is the region of most intense winter sea ice loss, and future projections show a continued decline towards ice-free conditions by the end of this century but with large fluctuations. Here we use climate model simulations to look at the occurrence and drivers of rapid ice change events in the Barents Sea that are much stronger than the average ice loss. A better understanding of these events will contribute to improved sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea.
The Barents Sea is the region of most intense winter sea ice loss, and future projections show a...
