Articles | Volume 15, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Brief communication
| Highlight paper
| 
17 Dec 2021
Brief communication | Highlight paper |
| 17 Dec 2021
| 17 Dec 2021
Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
Timothy C. Bartholomaus
Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, USA
Douglas J. Brinkerhoff
Department of Computer Science, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
Martin Truffer
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
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67 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Spatial and temporal variability of 21st century sea level changes J. Roffman et al. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad170
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- Assessing the exposure of buildings to long-term sea level rise across the Global South M. Willard-Stepan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-025-00259-z
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67 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A framework for automated supraglacial lake detection and depth retrieval in ICESat-2 photon data across the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets P. Arndt & H. Fricker https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5173-2024
- Detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in industrial-era retreat of Pine Island Glacier A. Bradley et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3443-2026
- Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020 I. Otosaka et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023
- Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change S. Bevan et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.57
- Automatic grounding line delineation of DInSAR interferograms using deep learning S. Ramanath et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2431-2025
- The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction E. Jager et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
- GBaTSv2: a revised synthesis of the likely basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet J. MacGregor et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022
- Ice viscosity governs hydraulic fracture that causes rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes T. Hageman et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024
- Geomorphological characterisation, pattern, and distribution of ice-margin positions of the former Scandinavian Ice Sheet H. Dulfer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2026.110194
- Spatial and temporal variability of 21st century sea level changes J. Roffman et al. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad170
- Inferring subglacial topography using physics informed machine learning constrained by two conservation laws M. Krishna et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3533-2026
- Increased sea-level contribution from northwestern Greenland for models that reproduce observations J. Badgeley et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2411904122
- Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model M. Poinelli et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-77976-1
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- Observations of grounding zones are the missing key to understand ice melt in Antarctica E. Rignot https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01819-w
- Relative sea level projections constrained by historical trends at tide gauge sites M. Perrette & M. Mengel https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ado4506
- Hydrostatic sea-level rise inundation impacts on ahu and harbors of Rapa Nui (Easter Island) N. Paoa et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-45195-9
- The effect of the present-day imbalance on schematic and climate forced simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1405-2026
- The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models A. Grinsted et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002696
- A Python library for solving ice sheet modeling problems using physics-informed neural networks, PINNICLE v1.0 G. Cheng et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5311-2025
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- Modeling the Greenland Ice Sheet's Committed Contribution to Sea Level During the 21st Century I. Nias et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JF006914
- Anisotropic metric-based mesh adaptation for ice flow modelling in Firedrake D. Dundovic et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4023-2025
- Improving interpretation of sea-level projections through a machine-learning-based local explanation approach J. Rohmer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022
- The achievability of low-emission IPCC sea-level rise scenarios H. Millman et al. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2024.0565
- Tipping point in ice-sheet grounding-zone melting due to ocean water intrusion A. Bradley & I. Hewitt https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01465-7
- Greenland’s Freshwater Flow from Ice Sheet to AMOC: The Known and the Unknown K. Schulz et al. https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2026.e306
- Quantifying the feedback between Antarctic meltwater release and subsurface Southern Ocean warming E. Lambert et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025
- Reclaiming “Climate Emergency” D. Spratt https://doi.org/10.3986/fv.43.2.05
- Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time N. Bauer et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/accd83
- Accelerating glacier volume loss on Juneau Icefield driven by hypsometry and melt-accelerating feedbacks B. Davies et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49269-y
- Widespread seawater intrusions beneath the grounded ice of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica E. Rignot et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2404766121
- Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations D. Felikson et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023
- A framework for time-dependent ice sheet uncertainty quantification, applied to three West Antarctic ice streams B. Recinos et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4241-2023
- Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model V. Coulon et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
- Accelerating the Renewable Energy Revolution to Get Back to the Holocene B. Abbott et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003639
- Variational inference of ice shelf rheology with physics-informed machine learning B. Riel & B. Minchew https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.8
- Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice T. Hillebrand et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4061-2026
- Improvements on the discretisation of boundary conditions to the momentum balance for glacial ice C. Berends et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.45
- Probabilistic sea level rise flood projections using a localized ocean reference surface N. Paoa et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-29297-2
- Competing processes determine the long-term impact of basal friction parameterizations for Antarctic mass loss T. van den Akker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1217-2026
- Greenland and Canadian Arctic ice temperature profiles database A. Løkkegaard et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3829-2023
- Lessons for multi-model ensemble design drawn from emulator experiments: application to a large ensemble for 2100 sea level contributions of the Greenland ice sheet J. Rohmer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6421-2025
- Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025
- The influence of inter-annual temperature variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet volume M. Lauritzen et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.53
- A framework for estimating the anthropogenic part of Antarctica’s sea level contribution in a synthetic setting A. Bradley et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01287-w
- Committed Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss by the end of the twenty-first century Y. Lin et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02102-1
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- Communicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users R. Kopp et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01691-8
- Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets C. Stokes et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w
- Extending the range and reach of physically-based Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections H. Goelzer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025
- Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability J. Caillet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025
- Annual mass budget of Antarctic ice shelves from 1997 to 2021 B. Davison et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi0186
- Modeled Greenland Ice Sheet evolution constrained by ice-core-derived Holocene elevation histories M. Lauritzen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3599-2025
- Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise J. Box et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2
- Ubiquitous acceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet calving from 1985 to 2022 C. Greene et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06863-2
- Melt rates in the kilometer-size grounding zone of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, before and during a retreat E. Ciracì et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2220924120
- Assessing the exposure of buildings to long-term sea level rise across the Global South M. Willard-Stepan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-025-00259-z
- Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from the 1970s to 2023 I. Otosaka et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-026-08088-0
- The Greenland Ice Sheet Large Ensemble (GrISLENS): simulating the future of Greenland under climate variability V. Verjans et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025
- Ice motion across incised fjord landscapes S. Barndon et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2757-2026
- Complex motion of Greenland Ice Sheet outlet glaciers with basal temperate ice R. Law et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abq5180
- Emergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise F. McCormack et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10614-4
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 27 Oct 2026
Short summary
Estimating how much ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to sea level rise is of critical societal importance. However, our analysis shows that recent efforts are not trustworthy because the models fail at reproducing contemporary ice melt. Here we present a roadmap towards making more credible estimates of ice sheet melt.
Estimating how much ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to sea level rise is...
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