Articles | Volume 15, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Brief communication
| Highlight paper
| 
17 Dec 2021
Brief communication | Highlight paper |
| 17 Dec 2021
| 17 Dec 2021
Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
Timothy C. Bartholomaus
Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, USA
Douglas J. Brinkerhoff
Department of Computer Science, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
Martin Truffer
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
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- Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020 I. Otosaka et al. 10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023
- Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change S. Bevan et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.57
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- Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model V. Coulon et al. 10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
- The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction E. Jager et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
- GBaTSv2: a revised synthesis of the likely basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet J. MacGregor et al. 10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022
- Ice viscosity governs hydraulic fracture that causes rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes T. Hageman et al. 10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024
- Spatial and temporal variability of 21st century sea level changes J. Roffman et al. 10.1093/gji/ggad170
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- Variational inference of ice shelf rheology with physics-informed machine learning B. Riel & B. Minchew 10.1017/jog.2023.8
- Increased sea-level contribution from northwestern Greenland for models that reproduce observations J. Badgeley et al. 10.1073/pnas.2411904122
- Improvements on the discretisation of boundary conditions to the momentum balance for glacial ice C. Berends et al. 10.1017/jog.2024.45
- Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
- A revised and expanded deep radiostratigraphy of the Greenland Ice Sheet from airborne radar sounding surveys between 1993 and 2019 J. MacGregor et al. 10.5194/essd-17-2911-2025
- Probabilistic sea level rise flood projections using a localized ocean reference surface N. Paoa et al. 10.1038/s41598-023-29297-2
- Greenland and Canadian Arctic ice temperature profiles database A. Løkkegaard et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3829-2023
- Observations of grounding zones are the missing key to understand ice melt in Antarctica E. Rignot 10.1038/s41558-023-01819-w
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- The influence of inter-annual temperature variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet volume M. Lauritzen et al. 10.1017/aog.2023.53
- A framework for estimating the anthropogenic part of Antarctica’s sea level contribution in a synthetic setting A. Bradley et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01287-w
- The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models A. Grinsted et al. 10.1029/2022EF002696
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- Communicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users R. Kopp et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01691-8
- Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets C. Stokes et al. 10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w
- Opinion: A research roadmap for exploring atmospheric methane removal via iron salt aerosol K. Gorham et al. 10.5194/acp-24-5659-2024
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- Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability J. Caillet et al. 10.5194/esd-16-293-2025
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- Improving interpretation of sea-level projections through a machine-learning-based local explanation approach J. Rohmer et al. 10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022
- Annual mass budget of Antarctic ice shelves from 1997 to 2021 B. Davison et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adi0186
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- Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise J. Box et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2
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- Reclaiming “Climate Emergency” D. Spratt 10.3986/fv.43.2.05
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- Widespread seawater intrusions beneath the grounded ice of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica E. Rignot et al. 10.1073/pnas.2404766121
- Complex motion of Greenland Ice Sheet outlet glaciers with basal temperate ice R. Law et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abq5180
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- Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level A. Aschwanden et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021
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Latest update: 10 Jul 2025
Short summary
Estimating how much ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to sea level rise is of critical societal importance. However, our analysis shows that recent efforts are not trustworthy because the models fail at reproducing contemporary ice melt. Here we present a roadmap towards making more credible estimates of ice sheet melt.
Estimating how much ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to sea level rise is...
