Articles | Volume 15, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 May 2021
Research article |
| 31 May 2021
| 31 May 2021
Consequences of permafrost degradation for Arctic infrastructure – bridging the model gap between regional and engineering scales
Thomas Schneider von Deimling
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt University of Berlin, Unter den Linden
6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
Hanna Lee
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Nygårdsgaten 112, 5008 Bergen, Norway
Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen
Department of Civil Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, 2800
Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Sebastian Westermann
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Sem Sælands vei 1,
0316 Oslo, Norway
Vladimir Romanovsky
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks,
Alaska, USA
Earth Cryosphere Institute, SB RAS, Tyumen, Russia
Scott Lamoureux
Department of Geography and Planning, Queen's University, Kingston, ON
K7L 3N6, Canada
Donald A. Walker
Department of Biology and Wildlife, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
Sarah Chadburn
Mathematics and
Physical Sciences, College of Engineering, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK
Erin Trochim
Alaska Center for Energy and Power, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming
650034, China
Jan Nitzbon
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt University of Berlin, Unter den Linden
6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
Stephan Jacobi
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Moritz Langer
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt University of Berlin, Unter den Linden
6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
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Cited
43 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Cumulative impacts of a gravel road and climate change in an ice-wedge-polygon landscape, Prudhoe Bay, Alaska D. Walker et al. 10.1139/as-2021-0014
- High‐Resolution Maps of Near‐Surface Permafrost for Three Watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska Derived From Machine Learning E. Thaler et al. 10.1029/2023EA003015
- The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends W. Ma et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5
- Future permafrost degradation under climate change in a headwater catchment of central Siberia: quantitative assessment with a mechanistic modelling approach T. Xavier et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5865-2024
- Lateral thermokarst patterns in permafrost peat plateaus in northern Norway L. Martin et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021
- Arctic amplification of climate change: a review of underlying mechanisms M. Previdi et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1c29
- Snow accumulation, albedo and melt patterns following road construction on permafrost, Inuvik–Tuktoyaktuk Highway, Canada J. Hammar et al. 10.5194/tc-17-5357-2023
- Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure J. Hjort et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00247-8
- Geology, Structure, Ground Temperature and Groundwater Level in Aquifer Taliks in the Shestakovka River Basin, Eastern Siberia L. Lebedeva et al. 10.3390/land12010016
- The CryoGrid community model (version 1.0) – a multi-physics toolbox for climate-driven simulations in the terrestrial cryosphere S. Westermann et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023
- Thawing permafrost poses environmental threat to thousands of sites with legacy industrial contamination M. Langer et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-37276-4
- Mitigating embankment frost heave with nano-ZnO in the Arctic M. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136073
- Understanding Effects of Permafrost Degradation and Coastal Erosion on Civil Infrastructure in Arctic Coastal Villages: A Community Survey and Knowledge Co-Production M. Liew et al. 10.3390/jmse10030422
- Design basis for Arctic infrastructure facilities L. Myrmel & O. Gudmestad 10.3934/geosci.2023006
- Permafrost degradation is accelerating beneath the bottom of Yanhu Lake in the Hoh Xil, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Y. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156045
- Permafrost degradation increases risk and large future costs of infrastructure on the Third Pole Y. Ran et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00568-6
- Vertical distribution of excess ice in icy sediments and its statistical estimation from geotechnical data (Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands and Anderson Plain, Northwest Territories) A. Castagner et al. 10.1139/as-2021-0041
- A prototype field-to-publication data system for a multi-variable permafrost observation network N. Brown et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106006
- Multi-Dimensional Remote Sensing Analysis Documents Beaver-Induced Permafrost Degradation, Seward Peninsula, Alaska B. Jones et al. 10.3390/rs13234863
- High potential for pile-bearing capacity loss and ground subsidence over permafrost regions across the Northern Hemisphere G. Yin et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104156
- Thaw Settlement Monitoring and Active Layer Thickness Retrieval Using Time Series COSMO-SkyMed Imagery in Iqaluit Airport D. Ma et al. 10.3390/rs14092156
- Circum-Arctic Map of the Yedoma Permafrost Domain J. Strauss et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.758360
- Subsurface Porewater Flow Accelerates Talik Development Under the Alaska Highway, Yukon: A Prelude to Road Collapse and Final Permafrost Thaw? L. Chen et al. 10.1029/2022WR032578
- Simulation of frozen ground distribution in northeast China based on a surface frost number model D. Zhan et al. 10.1007/s11442-022-2011-8
- Climate warming is likely to weaken the performance of two-phase closed thermosyphon on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau G. Jiang et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.001
- Optimizing embankment structures in a snowy permafrost region of the pan-Arctic based on a coupled numerical model S. Yang et al. 10.1016/j.trgeo.2022.100889
- Simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change R. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103881
- Impacts of Land Use/Land Cover Distributions on Permafrost Simulations on Tibetan Plateau Y. Pan et al. 10.3390/rs15235586
- Brief communication: Unravelling the composition and microstructure of a permafrost core using X-ray computed tomography J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-16-3507-2022
- Arctic weather variability and connectivity J. Meng et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-42351-x
- Connecting soils to life in conservation planning, nutrient cycling, and planetary science R. Lybrand 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104247
- Simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments with the CryoGrid community model J. Aga et al. 10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023
- Future scenarios of commercial freight shipping in the Euro-Asian Arctic E. Rovenskaya et al. 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103446
- Fine-resolution mapping and assessment of artificial surfaces in the northern hemisphere permafrost environments C. Liu et al. 10.1080/17538947.2024.2302579
- Active Layer and Permafrost Investigations Using Geophysical and Geocryological Methods—A Case Study of the Khanovey Area, Near Vorkuta, in the NE European Russian Arctic M. Rossi et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.910078
- Arctic geohazard mapping tools for civil infrastructure planning: A systematic review Z. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103969
- A study of thermal modeling parameters and their impact on modelled permafrost responses to climate warming K. Roghangar & J. Hayley 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104155
- Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Russian Arctic Economy (including the Energy Industry) S. Badina & A. Pankratov 10.3390/en15082849
- (Un)frozen foundations: A study of permafrost construction practices in Russia, Alaska, and Canada K. Landers & D. Streletskiy 10.1007/s13280-023-01866-9
- Permafrost modelling with OpenFOAM®: New advancements of the permaFoam solver L. Orgogozo et al. 10.1016/j.cpc.2022.108541
- Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer B. Groenke et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023
- Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios A. Gädeke et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2
- Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
41 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Cumulative impacts of a gravel road and climate change in an ice-wedge-polygon landscape, Prudhoe Bay, Alaska D. Walker et al. 10.1139/as-2021-0014
- High‐Resolution Maps of Near‐Surface Permafrost for Three Watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska Derived From Machine Learning E. Thaler et al. 10.1029/2023EA003015
- The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends W. Ma et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5
- Future permafrost degradation under climate change in a headwater catchment of central Siberia: quantitative assessment with a mechanistic modelling approach T. Xavier et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5865-2024
- Lateral thermokarst patterns in permafrost peat plateaus in northern Norway L. Martin et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021
- Arctic amplification of climate change: a review of underlying mechanisms M. Previdi et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1c29
- Snow accumulation, albedo and melt patterns following road construction on permafrost, Inuvik–Tuktoyaktuk Highway, Canada J. Hammar et al. 10.5194/tc-17-5357-2023
- Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure J. Hjort et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00247-8
- Geology, Structure, Ground Temperature and Groundwater Level in Aquifer Taliks in the Shestakovka River Basin, Eastern Siberia L. Lebedeva et al. 10.3390/land12010016
- The CryoGrid community model (version 1.0) – a multi-physics toolbox for climate-driven simulations in the terrestrial cryosphere S. Westermann et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023
- Thawing permafrost poses environmental threat to thousands of sites with legacy industrial contamination M. Langer et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-37276-4
- Mitigating embankment frost heave with nano-ZnO in the Arctic M. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136073
- Understanding Effects of Permafrost Degradation and Coastal Erosion on Civil Infrastructure in Arctic Coastal Villages: A Community Survey and Knowledge Co-Production M. Liew et al. 10.3390/jmse10030422
- Design basis for Arctic infrastructure facilities L. Myrmel & O. Gudmestad 10.3934/geosci.2023006
- Permafrost degradation is accelerating beneath the bottom of Yanhu Lake in the Hoh Xil, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Y. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156045
- Permafrost degradation increases risk and large future costs of infrastructure on the Third Pole Y. Ran et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00568-6
- Vertical distribution of excess ice in icy sediments and its statistical estimation from geotechnical data (Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands and Anderson Plain, Northwest Territories) A. Castagner et al. 10.1139/as-2021-0041
- A prototype field-to-publication data system for a multi-variable permafrost observation network N. Brown et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106006
- Multi-Dimensional Remote Sensing Analysis Documents Beaver-Induced Permafrost Degradation, Seward Peninsula, Alaska B. Jones et al. 10.3390/rs13234863
- High potential for pile-bearing capacity loss and ground subsidence over permafrost regions across the Northern Hemisphere G. Yin et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104156
- Thaw Settlement Monitoring and Active Layer Thickness Retrieval Using Time Series COSMO-SkyMed Imagery in Iqaluit Airport D. Ma et al. 10.3390/rs14092156
- Circum-Arctic Map of the Yedoma Permafrost Domain J. Strauss et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.758360
- Subsurface Porewater Flow Accelerates Talik Development Under the Alaska Highway, Yukon: A Prelude to Road Collapse and Final Permafrost Thaw? L. Chen et al. 10.1029/2022WR032578
- Simulation of frozen ground distribution in northeast China based on a surface frost number model D. Zhan et al. 10.1007/s11442-022-2011-8
- Climate warming is likely to weaken the performance of two-phase closed thermosyphon on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau G. Jiang et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.001
- Optimizing embankment structures in a snowy permafrost region of the pan-Arctic based on a coupled numerical model S. Yang et al. 10.1016/j.trgeo.2022.100889
- Simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change R. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103881
- Impacts of Land Use/Land Cover Distributions on Permafrost Simulations on Tibetan Plateau Y. Pan et al. 10.3390/rs15235586
- Brief communication: Unravelling the composition and microstructure of a permafrost core using X-ray computed tomography J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-16-3507-2022
- Arctic weather variability and connectivity J. Meng et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-42351-x
- Connecting soils to life in conservation planning, nutrient cycling, and planetary science R. Lybrand 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104247
- Simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments with the CryoGrid community model J. Aga et al. 10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023
- Future scenarios of commercial freight shipping in the Euro-Asian Arctic E. Rovenskaya et al. 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103446
- Fine-resolution mapping and assessment of artificial surfaces in the northern hemisphere permafrost environments C. Liu et al. 10.1080/17538947.2024.2302579
- Active Layer and Permafrost Investigations Using Geophysical and Geocryological Methods—A Case Study of the Khanovey Area, Near Vorkuta, in the NE European Russian Arctic M. Rossi et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.910078
- Arctic geohazard mapping tools for civil infrastructure planning: A systematic review Z. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103969
- A study of thermal modeling parameters and their impact on modelled permafrost responses to climate warming K. Roghangar & J. Hayley 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104155
- Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Russian Arctic Economy (including the Energy Industry) S. Badina & A. Pankratov 10.3390/en15082849
- (Un)frozen foundations: A study of permafrost construction practices in Russia, Alaska, and Canada K. Landers & D. Streletskiy 10.1007/s13280-023-01866-9
- Permafrost modelling with OpenFOAM®: New advancements of the permaFoam solver L. Orgogozo et al. 10.1016/j.cpc.2022.108541
- Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer B. Groenke et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios A. Gädeke et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2
- Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
Latest update: 21 Feb 2025
Short summary
Climate warming puts infrastructure built on permafrost at risk of failure. There is a growing need for appropriate model-based risk assessments. Here we present a modelling study and show an exemplary case of how a gravel road in a cold permafrost environment in Alaska might suffer from degrading permafrost under a scenario of intense climate warming. We use this case study to discuss the broader-scale applicability of our model for simulating future Arctic infrastructure failure.
Climate warming puts infrastructure built on permafrost at risk of failure. There is a growing...
