Articles | Volume 14, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Dec 2020
Research article |
| 01 Dec 2020
| 01 Dec 2020
Large and irreversible future decline of the Greenland ice sheet
Jonathan M. Gregory
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Steven E. George
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Robin S. Smith
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
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Cited
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433
- Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Runoff Projections to 2200 Using Degree-Day Methods C. Yue et al. 10.3390/atmos12121569
- FAMOUS version xotzt (FAMOUS-ice): a general circulation model (GCM) capable of energy- and water-conserving coupling to an ice sheet model R. Smith et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021
- A weakened AMOC may prolong greenhouse gas–induced Mediterranean drying even with significant and rapid climate change mitigation T. Delworth et al. 10.1073/pnas.2116655119
- Retreat and Regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial as Simulated by the CESM2‐CISM2 Coupled Climate–Ice Sheet Model A. Sommers et al. 10.1029/2021PA004272
- Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points D. Armstrong McKay et al. 10.1126/science.abn7950
- Coexchangeable Process Modeling for Uncertainty Quantification in Joint Climate Reconstruction L. Astfalck et al. 10.1080/01621459.2024.2325705
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
- Effect of orographic gravity wave drag on Northern Hemisphere climate in transient simulations of the last deglaciation B. Snoll et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06196-2
- Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet change (2011–2021) derived from CryoSat-2 S. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.polar.2023.100940
- Role of Snowfall Versus Air Temperatures for Greenland Ice Sheet Melt‐Albedo Feedbacks J. Ryan et al. 10.1029/2023EA003158
- De‐Tuning Albedo Parameters in a Coupled Climate Ice Sheet Model to Simulate the North American Ice Sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum N. Gandy et al. 10.1029/2023JF007250
- Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate R. Greve & C. Chambers 10.1017/jog.2022.9
- The impact of climate oscillations on the surface energy budget over the Greenland Ice Sheet in a changing climate T. Silva et al. 10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022
- A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners R. van de Wal et al. 10.1029/2022EF002751
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
- SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise M. Martínez Montero et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022
- Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet N. Bochow et al. 10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9
- Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system N. Boers et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944
- The deglaciation of Upernavik trough, West Greenland, and its Holocene sediment infill: processes and provenance J. Weiser et al. 10.1111/bor.12626
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433
- Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Runoff Projections to 2200 Using Degree-Day Methods C. Yue et al. 10.3390/atmos12121569
- FAMOUS version xotzt (FAMOUS-ice): a general circulation model (GCM) capable of energy- and water-conserving coupling to an ice sheet model R. Smith et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021
- A weakened AMOC may prolong greenhouse gas–induced Mediterranean drying even with significant and rapid climate change mitigation T. Delworth et al. 10.1073/pnas.2116655119
- Retreat and Regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial as Simulated by the CESM2‐CISM2 Coupled Climate–Ice Sheet Model A. Sommers et al. 10.1029/2021PA004272
- Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points D. Armstrong McKay et al. 10.1126/science.abn7950
- Coexchangeable Process Modeling for Uncertainty Quantification in Joint Climate Reconstruction L. Astfalck et al. 10.1080/01621459.2024.2325705
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
- Effect of orographic gravity wave drag on Northern Hemisphere climate in transient simulations of the last deglaciation B. Snoll et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06196-2
- Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet change (2011–2021) derived from CryoSat-2 S. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.polar.2023.100940
- Role of Snowfall Versus Air Temperatures for Greenland Ice Sheet Melt‐Albedo Feedbacks J. Ryan et al. 10.1029/2023EA003158
- De‐Tuning Albedo Parameters in a Coupled Climate Ice Sheet Model to Simulate the North American Ice Sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum N. Gandy et al. 10.1029/2023JF007250
- Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate R. Greve & C. Chambers 10.1017/jog.2022.9
- The impact of climate oscillations on the surface energy budget over the Greenland Ice Sheet in a changing climate T. Silva et al. 10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022
- A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners R. van de Wal et al. 10.1029/2022EF002751
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
- SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise M. Martínez Montero et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022
- Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet N. Bochow et al. 10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9
- Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system N. Boers et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944
- The deglaciation of Upernavik trough, West Greenland, and its Holocene sediment infill: processes and provenance J. Weiser et al. 10.1111/bor.12626
Latest update: 24 Apr 2024
Short summary
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet as a consequence of global warming could raise global-mean sea level by up to 7 m. We have studied this using a newly developed computer model. With recent climate maintained, sea level would rise by 0.5–2.5 m over many millennia due to Greenland ice loss: the warmer the climate, the greater the sea level rise. Beyond about 3.5 m it would become partially irreversible. In order to avoid this outcome, anthropogenic climate change must be reversed soon enough.
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet as a consequence of global warming could raise global-mean...
