Articles | Volume 14, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Dec 2020
Research article |
| 01 Dec 2020
| 01 Dec 2020
Large and irreversible future decline of the Greenland ice sheet
Jonathan M. Gregory
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Steven E. George
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Robin S. Smith
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
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Cited
44 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A weakened AMOC may prolong greenhouse gas–induced Mediterranean drying even with significant and rapid climate change mitigation T. Delworth et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2116655119
- Contrasting the Penultimate Glacial Maximum and the Last Glacial Maximum (140 and 21 ka) using coupled climate–ice sheet modelling V. Patterson et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024
- Destabilization of Earth system tipping elements N. Boers et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01787-0
- Retreat and Regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial as Simulated by the CESM2‐CISM2 Coupled Climate–Ice Sheet Model A. Sommers et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021PA004272
- Disappearing landscapes: The Arctic at +2.7°C global warming J. Stroeve et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ads1549
- Positive feedbacks drive the Greenland ice sheet evolution in millennial-length MAR–GISM simulations under a high-end warming scenario C. Paice et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-309-2026
- Coexchangeable Process Modeling for Uncertainty Quantification in Joint Climate Reconstruction L. Astfalck et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2024.2325705
- Monitoring the Multiple Stages of Climate Tipping Systems from Space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables Meet the Needs? S. Loriani et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-024-09866-4
- Large-ensemble simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmospheric general circulation–ice sheet model S. Sherriff-Tadano et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024
- Effect of orographic gravity wave drag on Northern Hemisphere climate in transient simulations of the last deglaciation B. Snoll et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06196-2
- Assessing effectiveness of critical slowing down in a non-idealised timeseries of the Greenland ice sheet in a paleo-climate model run R. Chapman et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ae8d6e
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
- Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model R. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026
- A topographically controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice sheet melt M. Petrini et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025
- The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1 C. Jones et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026
- Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate R. Greve & C. Chambers https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.9
- Interactive coupling of a Greenland ice sheet model in NorESM2 H. Goelzer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7853-2025
- Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks T. Möller et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0
- SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise M. Martínez Montero et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022
- Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system N. Boers et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944
- The deglaciation of Upernavik trough, West Greenland, and its Holocene sediment infill: processes and provenance J. Weiser et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/bor.12626
- Exploring the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response to future atmospheric warming-threshold scenarios over 200 years A. Delhasse et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4459-2025
- Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433
- Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Runoff Projections to 2200 Using Degree-Day Methods C. Yue et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121569
- FAMOUS version xotzt (FAMOUS-ice): a general circulation model (GCM) capable of energy- and water-conserving coupling to an ice sheet model R. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021
- Projections of precipitation and temperatures in Greenland and the impact of spatially uniform anomalies on the evolution of the ice sheet N. Bochow et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5825-2024
- Evolving synchronization of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension in a changing climate Y. Joh et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx6366
- Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points D. Armstrong McKay et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950
- Investigating the multi-millennial evolution and stability of the Greenland ice sheet using remapped surface mass balance forcing C. Rahlves et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6403-2025
- Stabilizing feedbacks allow for multiple states of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a fully coupled Earth System – Ice Sheet Model M. Andernach et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1047-2026
- Critical role of low cloud feedback in irreversible sea level rise S. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-72898-4
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021RG000757
- Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet change (2011–2021) derived from CryoSat-2 S. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2023.100940
- Role of Snowfall Versus Air Temperatures for Greenland Ice Sheet Melt‐Albedo Feedbacks J. Ryan et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA003158
- The Eurasian and North American ice sheets at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima: coupled atmosphere–ice sheet model sensitivity and calibration V. Patterson et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2589-2026
- De‐Tuning Albedo Parameters in a Coupled Climate Ice Sheet Model to Simulate the North American Ice Sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum N. Gandy et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JF007250
- The impact of climate oscillations on the surface energy budget over the Greenland Ice Sheet in a changing climate T. Silva et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022
- A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners R. van de Wal et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002751
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
- Contribution of surface and cloud radiative feedbacks to Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater production during 2002–2023 J. Ryan https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01714-y
- A framework for automated supraglacial lake detection and depth retrieval in ICESat-2 photon data across the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets P. Arndt & H. Fricker https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5173-2024
- Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet N. Bochow et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9
- Role of elevation feedbacks and ice sheet–climate interactions on future Greenland ice sheet melt T. Feenstra et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2289-2025
44 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A weakened AMOC may prolong greenhouse gas–induced Mediterranean drying even with significant and rapid climate change mitigation T. Delworth et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2116655119
- Contrasting the Penultimate Glacial Maximum and the Last Glacial Maximum (140 and 21 ka) using coupled climate–ice sheet modelling V. Patterson et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024
- Destabilization of Earth system tipping elements N. Boers et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01787-0
- Retreat and Regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial as Simulated by the CESM2‐CISM2 Coupled Climate–Ice Sheet Model A. Sommers et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021PA004272
- Disappearing landscapes: The Arctic at +2.7°C global warming J. Stroeve et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ads1549
- Positive feedbacks drive the Greenland ice sheet evolution in millennial-length MAR–GISM simulations under a high-end warming scenario C. Paice et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-309-2026
- Coexchangeable Process Modeling for Uncertainty Quantification in Joint Climate Reconstruction L. Astfalck et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2024.2325705
- Monitoring the Multiple Stages of Climate Tipping Systems from Space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables Meet the Needs? S. Loriani et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-024-09866-4
- Large-ensemble simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmospheric general circulation–ice sheet model S. Sherriff-Tadano et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024
- Effect of orographic gravity wave drag on Northern Hemisphere climate in transient simulations of the last deglaciation B. Snoll et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06196-2
- Assessing effectiveness of critical slowing down in a non-idealised timeseries of the Greenland ice sheet in a paleo-climate model run R. Chapman et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ae8d6e
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
- Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model R. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026
- A topographically controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice sheet melt M. Petrini et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025
- The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1 C. Jones et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026
- Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate R. Greve & C. Chambers https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.9
- Interactive coupling of a Greenland ice sheet model in NorESM2 H. Goelzer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7853-2025
- Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks T. Möller et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0
- SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise M. Martínez Montero et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022
- Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system N. Boers et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944
- The deglaciation of Upernavik trough, West Greenland, and its Holocene sediment infill: processes and provenance J. Weiser et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/bor.12626
- Exploring the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response to future atmospheric warming-threshold scenarios over 200 years A. Delhasse et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4459-2025
- Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433
- Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Runoff Projections to 2200 Using Degree-Day Methods C. Yue et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121569
- FAMOUS version xotzt (FAMOUS-ice): a general circulation model (GCM) capable of energy- and water-conserving coupling to an ice sheet model R. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021
- Projections of precipitation and temperatures in Greenland and the impact of spatially uniform anomalies on the evolution of the ice sheet N. Bochow et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5825-2024
- Evolving synchronization of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension in a changing climate Y. Joh et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx6366
- Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points D. Armstrong McKay et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950
- Investigating the multi-millennial evolution and stability of the Greenland ice sheet using remapped surface mass balance forcing C. Rahlves et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6403-2025
- Stabilizing feedbacks allow for multiple states of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a fully coupled Earth System – Ice Sheet Model M. Andernach et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1047-2026
- Critical role of low cloud feedback in irreversible sea level rise S. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-72898-4
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021RG000757
- Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet change (2011–2021) derived from CryoSat-2 S. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2023.100940
- Role of Snowfall Versus Air Temperatures for Greenland Ice Sheet Melt‐Albedo Feedbacks J. Ryan et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA003158
- The Eurasian and North American ice sheets at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima: coupled atmosphere–ice sheet model sensitivity and calibration V. Patterson et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2589-2026
- De‐Tuning Albedo Parameters in a Coupled Climate Ice Sheet Model to Simulate the North American Ice Sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum N. Gandy et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JF007250
- The impact of climate oscillations on the surface energy budget over the Greenland Ice Sheet in a changing climate T. Silva et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022
- A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners R. van de Wal et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002751
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
- Contribution of surface and cloud radiative feedbacks to Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater production during 2002–2023 J. Ryan https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01714-y
- A framework for automated supraglacial lake detection and depth retrieval in ICESat-2 photon data across the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets P. Arndt & H. Fricker https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5173-2024
- Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet N. Bochow et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9
- Role of elevation feedbacks and ice sheet–climate interactions on future Greenland ice sheet melt T. Feenstra et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2289-2025
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 15 Aug 2026
Short summary
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet as a consequence of global warming could raise global-mean sea level by up to 7 m. We have studied this using a newly developed computer model. With recent climate maintained, sea level would rise by 0.5–2.5 m over many millennia due to Greenland ice loss: the warmer the climate, the greater the sea level rise. Beyond about 3.5 m it would become partially irreversible. In order to avoid this outcome, anthropogenic climate change must be reversed soon enough.
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet as a consequence of global warming could raise global-mean...
