Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-79-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-79-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Jan 2019
Research article |
| 10 Jan 2019
| 10 Jan 2019
Arctic sea-ice-free season projected to extend into autumn
Marion Lebrun
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Sorbonne Université, LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
Martin Vancoppenolle
Sorbonne Université, LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
Gurvan Madec
Sorbonne Université, LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
François Massonnet
Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
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Cited
31 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The Emerging Arctic Shipping Corridors C. Min et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099157
- The Seasonal and Regional Transition to an Ice‐Free Arctic M. Årthun et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090825
- A New Perspective on Four Decades of Changes in Arctic Sea Ice from Satellite Observations X. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14081846
- The observed evolution of Arctic amplification over the past 45 years M. Serreze et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-411-2026
- Winter arctic sea ice volume decline: uncertainties reduced using passive microwave-based sea ice thickness C. Soriot et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70136-9
- Preparing the New Phase of Argo: Scientific Achievements of the NAOS Project P. Le Traon et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.577408
- Sources of seasonal sea-ice bias for CMIP6 models in the Hudson Bay Complex A. Crawford et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.42
- Drivers of Antarctic sea ice advance K. Himmich et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41962-8
- Tara Polaris expeditions: Sustained decadal observations of the coupled Arctic system in rapid transition M. Ardyna et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2025.00046
- Advanced Algorithm for Continuous Melt Onset Detection on Arctic Sea Ice J. Kim et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2025.3560261
- Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics and Drivers of Winter Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Under the New Arctic Regime Y. Yin & X. Wang https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse14100888
- Mechanisms for the link between onset and duration of open water in the Kara Sea C. Dong et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-021-1767-5
- Arctic Warming: Cascading Climate Impacts and Global Consequences I. Malik et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13050085
- Interannual and Decadal Variability of Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Concentration in the Barents Sea B. Mohamed et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14174413
- Robustness of future atmospheric circulation changes over the EURO-CORDEX domain T. Ozturk et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06069-0
- Optimizing sea ice parameters mitigates the underestimation of Arctic marine access in CMIP6 climate models C. Min et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02705-3
- The role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales E. Bianco et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2357-2024
- Heterogeneous future Arctic Ocean primary productivity changes projected in CMIP6 L. Champiot-Bayard et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-4735-2026
- Shifts in the physical environment in the Pacific Arctic and implications for ecological timing and conditions M. Baker et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2020.104802
- Arctic amplification, and its seasonal migration, over a wide range of abrupt CO2 forcing Y. Liang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00228-8
- Clouds Increasingly Influence Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures as CO2 Rises A. Sledd et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102850
- Delay in Arctic Sea Ice Freeze-Up Linked to Early Summer Sea Ice Loss: Evidence from Satellite Observations L. Zheng et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13112162
- Meiofauna as a valuable bioindicator of climate change in the polar regions F. Leasi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107133
- Seasonal transition dates can reveal biases in Arctic sea ice simulations A. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2977-2020
- Changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice properties and processes M. Webster et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-026-00816-9
- Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100 A. Crawford et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00183-x
- Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean A. Jahn et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00515-9
- Limited effects of UVBR on primary productivity and photosynthetic pigment composition in the Greenland Sea M. Olofsson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2025.102608
- Looking back to the future—micro- and nanoplankton diversity in the Greenland Sea M. Olofsson & A. Wulff https://doi.org/10.1007/s12526-021-01204-w
- Arctic regional changes revealed by clustering of sea-ice observations A. Simon et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6639-2025
- Understanding the Physical Forcings Behind the Biogeochemical Productivity of the Hudson Bay Complex I. Deschepper et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG007294
31 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The Emerging Arctic Shipping Corridors C. Min et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099157
- The Seasonal and Regional Transition to an Ice‐Free Arctic M. Årthun et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090825
- A New Perspective on Four Decades of Changes in Arctic Sea Ice from Satellite Observations X. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14081846
- The observed evolution of Arctic amplification over the past 45 years M. Serreze et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-411-2026
- Winter arctic sea ice volume decline: uncertainties reduced using passive microwave-based sea ice thickness C. Soriot et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70136-9
- Preparing the New Phase of Argo: Scientific Achievements of the NAOS Project P. Le Traon et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.577408
- Sources of seasonal sea-ice bias for CMIP6 models in the Hudson Bay Complex A. Crawford et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.42
- Drivers of Antarctic sea ice advance K. Himmich et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41962-8
- Tara Polaris expeditions: Sustained decadal observations of the coupled Arctic system in rapid transition M. Ardyna et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2025.00046
- Advanced Algorithm for Continuous Melt Onset Detection on Arctic Sea Ice J. Kim et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2025.3560261
- Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics and Drivers of Winter Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Under the New Arctic Regime Y. Yin & X. Wang https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse14100888
- Mechanisms for the link between onset and duration of open water in the Kara Sea C. Dong et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-021-1767-5
- Arctic Warming: Cascading Climate Impacts and Global Consequences I. Malik et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13050085
- Interannual and Decadal Variability of Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Concentration in the Barents Sea B. Mohamed et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14174413
- Robustness of future atmospheric circulation changes over the EURO-CORDEX domain T. Ozturk et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06069-0
- Optimizing sea ice parameters mitigates the underestimation of Arctic marine access in CMIP6 climate models C. Min et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02705-3
- The role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales E. Bianco et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2357-2024
- Heterogeneous future Arctic Ocean primary productivity changes projected in CMIP6 L. Champiot-Bayard et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-4735-2026
- Shifts in the physical environment in the Pacific Arctic and implications for ecological timing and conditions M. Baker et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2020.104802
- Arctic amplification, and its seasonal migration, over a wide range of abrupt CO2 forcing Y. Liang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00228-8
- Clouds Increasingly Influence Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures as CO2 Rises A. Sledd et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102850
- Delay in Arctic Sea Ice Freeze-Up Linked to Early Summer Sea Ice Loss: Evidence from Satellite Observations L. Zheng et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13112162
- Meiofauna as a valuable bioindicator of climate change in the polar regions F. Leasi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107133
- Seasonal transition dates can reveal biases in Arctic sea ice simulations A. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2977-2020
- Changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice properties and processes M. Webster et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-026-00816-9
- Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100 A. Crawford et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00183-x
- Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean A. Jahn et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00515-9
- Limited effects of UVBR on primary productivity and photosynthetic pigment composition in the Greenland Sea M. Olofsson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2025.102608
- Looking back to the future—micro- and nanoplankton diversity in the Greenland Sea M. Olofsson & A. Wulff https://doi.org/10.1007/s12526-021-01204-w
- Arctic regional changes revealed by clustering of sea-ice observations A. Simon et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6639-2025
- Understanding the Physical Forcings Behind the Biogeochemical Productivity of the Hudson Bay Complex I. Deschepper et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG007294
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 22 Sep 2026
Short summary
The present analysis shows that the increase in the Arctic ice-free season duration will be asymmetrical, with later autumn freeze-up contributing about twice as much as earlier spring retreat. This feature is robustly found in a hierarchy of climate models and is consistent with a simple mechanism: solar energy is absorbed more efficiently than it can be released in non-solar form and should emerge out of variability within the next few decades.
The present analysis shows that the increase in the Arctic ice-free season duration will be...
