Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios
Sarah Shannon
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Geography, University of Exeter, The Queen's Drive,
Exeter, Devon, EX4 4QJ, UK
Bristol Glaciology Centre, Department of Geographical Science,
University Road, University of Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Robin Smith
NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading,
Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
Andy Wiltshire
Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK
Tony Payne
Bristol Glaciology Centre, Department of Geographical Science,
University Road, University of Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Matthias Huss
Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg,
Switzerland
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology, ETH Zurich,
Zurich, Switzerland
Richard Betts
School of Geography, University of Exeter, The Queen's Drive,
Exeter, Devon, EX4 4QJ, UK
Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK
John Caesar
Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK
Aris Koutroulis
School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete,
Akrotiri, 73100 Chania, Greece
Darren Jones
University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Treliever Road, Penryn, Cornwall,
TR10 9FE, UK
Stephan Harrison
University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Treliever Road, Penryn, Cornwall,
TR10 9FE, UK
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- Diagnosing changes in glacier hydrology from physical principles using a hydrological model with snow redistribution, sublimation, firnification and energy balance ablation algorithms D. Pradhananga & J. Pomeroy
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- Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Areal Fragmentation and Volume of Snow Cover in the Central Himalaya S. Banerjee et al.
- The New IGRICE Model as a Tool for Studying the Mechanisms of Glacier Retreat P. Toropov et al.
- Retrieval of key glacial dynamic parameters using long-range terrestrial laser scanning: a case study C. Xu et al.
- Impacts du changement climatique sur les itinéraires d’alpinisme du massif des Écrins (Alpes occidentales, France) M. Arnaud et al.
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- Thin debris layers do not enhance melting of the Karakoram glaciers S. Muhammad et al.
- Evolution of debris cover on glaciers of the Eastern Alps, Austria, between 1996 and 2015 F. Fleischer et al.
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- Summer afternoon precipitation associated with wind convergence near the Himalayan glacier fronts C. Lin et al.
- Twentieth century global glacier mass change: an ensemble-based model reconstruction J. Malles & B. Marzeion
- Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change B. Marzeion et al.
- Storage‐discharge characteristics of an active rock glacier catchment in the Innere Ölgrube, Austrian Alps T. Wagner et al.
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- Elucidating suspended sediment dynamics in a glacierized catchment after an exceptional erosion event: The Djankuat catchment, Caucasus Mountains, Russia A. Tsyplenkov et al.
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- Rock glaciers of the semi-arid northwestern Himalayas: distribution, characteristics, and hydrological significance P. Pandey et al.
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- Hydrological process controls on streamflow variability in a glacierized headwater basin C. Aubry‐Wake et al.
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- Shortwave cloud warming effect observed over highly reflective Greenland H. Zhang et al.
- Rock glaciers represent hidden water stores in the Himalaya D. Jones et al.
- Spin‐up of UK Earth System Model 1 (UKESM1) for CMIP6 A. Yool et al.
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- Regional integrated assessment of climate change impact on cotton production in a semi-arid environment S. Ahmad et al.
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- Glacier Change and Its Influencing Factors in the Northern Part of the Kunlun Mountains S. Niu et al.
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- JULES-GL7: the Global Land configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 7.0 and 7.2 A. Wiltshire et al.
- Exploring the ability of the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables in High Mountain Asia R. Wijngaard et al.
- Machine learning improves seasonal mass balance prediction for unmonitored glaciers K. Sjursen et al.
- Assessing UAV-based laser scanning for monitoring glacial processes and interactions at high spatial and temporal resolutions N. Baurley et al.
- Vegetation expansion in the subnival Hindu Kush Himalaya K. Anderson et al.
- Assessing glacier changes and hydrological impacts in the upper Indus Basin under CMIP6 climate scenarios T. Abdullah et al.
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- Physically based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes J. Mackay et al.
- Downscaling CESM2 in CLM5 to Hindcast Preindustrial Equilibrium Line Altitudes for Tropical Mountain Glaciers N. Heavens
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- Vegetation on the move: elevational shifts and greening dynamics across the Himalayan alpine zone R. Leng et al.
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- UKESM1: Description and Evaluation of the U.K. Earth System Model A. Sellar et al.
- Debris-covered glacier systems and associated glacial lake outburst flood hazards: challenges and prospects A. Racoviteanu et al.
- Seasonal variations in proglacial lake area revealed by high spatial resolution planetscope satellite imagery A. Andrews et al.
- Projected evolution of the Qiyi Glacier in the Qilian Mountains using the PyGEM with the calibration of glaciological mass balance Y. Huo et al.
- Brief communication: Updated GAMDAM glacier inventory over high-mountain Asia A. Sakai
- Evaluation of a Land Surface–Glacier Coupled Model over the Three-River Headwaters Region in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau S. Li & X. Yuan
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- Ice cover loss and debris cover evolution in the Afghanistan Hindu Kush Himalaya between 2000 and 2020 J. Shokory & S. Lane
- Long‐term impact of the proglacial lake Jökulsárlón on the flow velocity and stability of Breiðamerkurjökull glacier, Iceland N. Baurley et al.
- Implementation of sequential cropping into JULESvn5.2 land-surface model C. Mathison et al.
- A Comprehensive Inventory, Characterization, and Analysis of Rock Glaciers in the Jhelum Basin, Kashmir Himalaya, Using High-Resolution Google Earth Data T. Abdullah & S. Romshoo
- Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections G. Le Cozannet et al.
- Twenty-first century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations H. Zekollari et al.
- Joint Inversion of InSAR and GNSS for surface subsidence and terrestrial water storage anomalies of small-area in west-central Yunnan Province, China M. Shangguan et al.
- Ice geometry and thermal regime of Lyngmarksbræen Ice Cap, West Greenland M. Gillespie et al.
- The sensitivity and evolutionary trajectory of the mountain cryosphere: Implications for mountain geomorphic systems and hazards J. Knight & S. Harrison
- Unraveling rock glaciers in the semi-arid Western Nyainqêntanglha Mountains: Insights from machine learning and Sentinel imagery for hydrological significance Y. Zhang et al.
- Modelling supraglacial debris-cover evolution from the single-glacier to the regional scale: an application to High Mountain Asia L. Compagno et al.
- Evaluating water quality of rock glacier outflows in the Western Alps, Italy: a regional perspective M. Rogora et al.
- A new global gridded glacier dataset based on the Randolph Glacier Inventory version 6.0 Y. Li et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 18 May 2026
Short summary
We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of...