Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Research article
03 Apr 2019
Research article |  | 03 Apr 2019

Benchmark seasonal prediction skill estimates based on regional indices

John E. Walsh, J. Scott Stewart, and Florence Fetterer

Data sets

Gridded Monthly Sea Ice Extent and Concentration, 1850 Onward, Version 1 J. E. Walsh, W. L. Chapman, and F. Fetterer

Short summary
Persistence-based statistical forecasts of a Beaufort Sea ice severity index as well as September pan-Arctic ice extent show significant statistical skill out to several seasons when the data include the trend. However, this apparent skill largely vanishes when the trends are removed from the data. This finding is consistent with the notion of a springtime “predictability barrier” that has been found in sea ice forecasts based on more sophisticated methods.