Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Jan 2019
Research article |
| 02 Jan 2019
| 02 Jan 2019
Definition differences and internal variability affect the simulated Arctic sea ice melt season
Abigail Smith
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic
and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder,
USA
Alexandra Jahn
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic
and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder,
USA
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Cited
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Increased Transnational Sea Ice Transport Between Neighboring Arctic States in the 21st Century P. DeRepentigny et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001284
- Seasonal transition dates can reveal biases in Arctic sea ice simulations A. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2977-2020
- Delay in Arctic Sea Ice Freeze-Up Linked to Early Summer Sea Ice Loss: Evidence from Satellite Observations L. Zheng et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13112162
- Arctic shipping guidance from the CMIP6 ensemble on operational and infrastructural timescales X. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03172-3
- Sea ice breakup and freeze-up indicators for users of the Arctic coastal environment J. Walsh et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4617-2022
- Arctic Sea Ice in Two Configurations of the CESM2 During the 20th and 21st Centuries P. DeRepentigny et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016133
- The Characteristics of Surface Albedo Change Trends over the Antarctic Sea Ice Region during Recent Decades C. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11070821
- Improving model-satellite comparisons of sea ice melt onset with a satellite simulator A. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3235-2022
- Changes in the annual sea ice freeze–thaw cycle in the Arctic Ocean from 2001 to 2018 L. Lin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4779-2022
- The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability N. Maher et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001639
- Effects of North Atlantic summer marine heatwaves on Arctic sea ice freeze-up delay: modulation by atmospheric teleconnections X. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07887-2
- Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble N. Maher et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-401-2021
- Understanding the spring cloud onset over the Arctic sea-ice J. Lac et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4189-2026
- Sources of seasonal sea-ice bias for CMIP6 models in the Hudson Bay Complex A. Crawford et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.42
- Modelling the evolution of Arctic multiyear sea ice over 2000–2018 H. Regan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023
- Forced Changes in the Arctic Freshwater Budget Emerge in the Early 21st Century A. Jahn & R. Laiho https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088854
- Diagnostic early freeze onset in the Bering Sea W. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2025.104106
- Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming on ship navigation in the Canadian Arctic L. Mudryk et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01087-6
- Passive microwave Arctic sea ice melt onset dates from the advanced horizontal range algorithm 1979–2022 A. Bliss https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02760-5
- Universal thermal climate index in the Arctic in an era of climate change: Alaska and Chukotka as a case study E. Grigorieva et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02531-2
- Defining the “Ice Shed” of the Arctic Ocean's Last Ice Area and Its Future Evolution R. Newton et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF001988
- Evaluation and joint projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Canada based on hierarchical Bayesian modelling and large ensembles of regional climate simulations H. Singh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100443
- Spatiotemporal evolution of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice M. Webster et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2021.000072
- Arctic sea ice melt onset favored by an atmospheric pressure pattern reminiscent of the North American-Eurasian Arctic pattern S. Horvath et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05776-y
- An Optimal Atmospheric Circulation Mode in the Arctic Favoring Strong Summertime Sea Ice Melting and Ice–Albedo Feedback I. Baxter & Q. Ding https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0679.1
- Exploiting large ensembles for a better yet simpler climate model evaluation L. Suarez-Gutierrez et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05821-w
- Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE E. Jakobson & L. Jakobson https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-155-2024
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Increased Transnational Sea Ice Transport Between Neighboring Arctic States in the 21st Century P. DeRepentigny et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001284
- Seasonal transition dates can reveal biases in Arctic sea ice simulations A. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2977-2020
- Delay in Arctic Sea Ice Freeze-Up Linked to Early Summer Sea Ice Loss: Evidence from Satellite Observations L. Zheng et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13112162
- Arctic shipping guidance from the CMIP6 ensemble on operational and infrastructural timescales X. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03172-3
- Sea ice breakup and freeze-up indicators for users of the Arctic coastal environment J. Walsh et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4617-2022
- Arctic Sea Ice in Two Configurations of the CESM2 During the 20th and 21st Centuries P. DeRepentigny et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016133
- The Characteristics of Surface Albedo Change Trends over the Antarctic Sea Ice Region during Recent Decades C. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11070821
- Improving model-satellite comparisons of sea ice melt onset with a satellite simulator A. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3235-2022
- Changes in the annual sea ice freeze–thaw cycle in the Arctic Ocean from 2001 to 2018 L. Lin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4779-2022
- The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability N. Maher et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001639
- Effects of North Atlantic summer marine heatwaves on Arctic sea ice freeze-up delay: modulation by atmospheric teleconnections X. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07887-2
- Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble N. Maher et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-401-2021
- Understanding the spring cloud onset over the Arctic sea-ice J. Lac et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4189-2026
- Sources of seasonal sea-ice bias for CMIP6 models in the Hudson Bay Complex A. Crawford et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.42
- Modelling the evolution of Arctic multiyear sea ice over 2000–2018 H. Regan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023
- Forced Changes in the Arctic Freshwater Budget Emerge in the Early 21st Century A. Jahn & R. Laiho https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088854
- Diagnostic early freeze onset in the Bering Sea W. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2025.104106
- Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming on ship navigation in the Canadian Arctic L. Mudryk et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01087-6
- Passive microwave Arctic sea ice melt onset dates from the advanced horizontal range algorithm 1979–2022 A. Bliss https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02760-5
- Universal thermal climate index in the Arctic in an era of climate change: Alaska and Chukotka as a case study E. Grigorieva et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02531-2
- Defining the “Ice Shed” of the Arctic Ocean's Last Ice Area and Its Future Evolution R. Newton et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF001988
- Evaluation and joint projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Canada based on hierarchical Bayesian modelling and large ensembles of regional climate simulations H. Singh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100443
- Spatiotemporal evolution of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice M. Webster et al. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2021.000072
- Arctic sea ice melt onset favored by an atmospheric pressure pattern reminiscent of the North American-Eurasian Arctic pattern S. Horvath et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05776-y
- An Optimal Atmospheric Circulation Mode in the Arctic Favoring Strong Summertime Sea Ice Melting and Ice–Albedo Feedback I. Baxter & Q. Ding https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0679.1
- Exploiting large ensembles for a better yet simpler climate model evaluation L. Suarez-Gutierrez et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05821-w
- Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE E. Jakobson & L. Jakobson https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-155-2024
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 07 Jun 2026
Short summary
Here we assessed how natural climate variations and different definitions impact the diagnosed and projected Arctic sea ice melt season length using model simulations. Irrespective of the definition or natural variability, the sea ice melt season is projected to lengthen, potentially by as much as 4–5 months by 2100 under the business as usual scenario. We also find that different definitions have a bigger impact on melt onset, while natural variations have a bigger impact on freeze onset.
Here we assessed how natural climate variations and different definitions impact the diagnosed...
