Articles | Volume 12, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
11 Dec 2018
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 11 Dec 2018
| 11 Dec 2018
Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws
Hongju Yu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
Eric Rignot
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
Helene Seroussi
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
Mathieu Morlighem
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
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Cited
43 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Strong Ocean Melting Feedback During the Recent Retreat of Thwaites Glacier P. Holland et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103088
- Sensitivity of Totten Glacier dynamics to sliding parameterizations and ice shelf basal melt rates Y. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6187-2025
- Persistent, extensive channelized drainage modeled beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica A. Hager et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3575-2022
- Sea-level rise projections for Sweden based on the new IPCC special report: The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate M. Hieronymus & O. Kalén https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01313-8
- Emergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise F. McCormack et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10614-4
- Geospatial investigation on transitional (quiescence to surge initiation) phase dynamics of Monacobreen tidewater glacier, Svalbard D. Banerjee et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2021.08.020
- Calving cycle of the Brunt Ice Shelf, Antarctica, driven by changes in ice shelf geometry J. De Rydt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2771-2019
- Pathways and modification of warm water flowing beneath Thwaites Ice Shelf, West Antarctica A. Wåhlin et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7254
- Sedimentary Signatures of Persistent Subglacial Meltwater Drainage From Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica A. Lepp et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.863200
- Model insights into bed control on retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica E. Schwans et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.13
- Extensive inland thinning and speed-up of Northeast Greenland Ice Stream S. Khan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05301-z
- Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf cavity observations reveal multiyear sea ice dynamics and deepwater warming in Pine Island Bay, West Antarctica C. Wild et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2605-2025
- The Impact of Variable Ocean Temperatures on Totten Glacier Stability and Discharge F. McCormack et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091790
- Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector D. Bett et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024
- Thwaites Glacier thins and retreats fastest where ice-shelf channels intersect its grounding zone A. Chartrand et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024
- Basal conditions of Denman Glacier from glacier hydrology and ice dynamics modeling K. McArthur et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4705-2023
- The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica J. Barnes & G. Gudmundsson https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022
- Results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+) S. Cornford et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020
- Deglaciation of Pope Glacier implies widespread early Holocene ice sheet thinning in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica J. Johnson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116501
- Effect of Subshelf Melt Variability on Sea Level Rise Contribution From Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica M. Hoffman et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005155
- Sensitivity of ice sheet surface velocity and elevation to variations in basal friction and topography in the full Stokes and shallow-shelf approximation frameworks using adjoint equations G. Cheng et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-715-2021
- Widespread seawater intrusions beneath the grounded ice of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica E. Rignot et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2404766121
- The transferability of adjoint inversion products between different ice flow models J. Barnes et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021
- Past water flow beneath Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica J. Kirkham et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1959-2019
- Sea level rise contribution from Ryder Glacier in northern Greenland varies by an order of magnitude by 2300 depending on future emissions F. Holmes et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2695-2025
- A Multifidelity Quantile-Based Approach for Confidence Sets of Random Excursion Sets with Application to Ice-Sheet Dynamics K. Bulthuis et al. https://doi.org/10.1137/19M1280466
- Sea Level Projections From IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere Call for a New Climate Adaptation Strategy in the Skagerrak-Kattegat Seas J. Su et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.629470
- Limited Impact of Thwaites Ice Shelf on Future Ice Loss From Antarctica G. Gudmundsson et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102880
- Responses of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers to melt and sliding parameterizations I. Joughin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2583-2024
- Inverting ice surface elevation and velocity for bed topography and slipperiness beneath Thwaites Glacier H. Ockenden et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3867-2022
- Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change K. Bulthuis et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
- Rapid retreat of Thwaites Glacier in the pre-satellite era A. Graham et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01019-9
- Hard rocks and deep wetlands beneath Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica O. Zeising et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03502-2
- Modelling the Antarctic Ice Sheet across the mid-Pleistocene transition – implications for Oldest Ice J. Sutter et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2023-2019
- Bed-type variability and till (dis)continuity beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica A. Muto et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2019.32
- Derivation of bedrock topography measurement requirements for the reduction of uncertainty in ice-sheet model projections of Thwaites Glacier B. Castleman et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-761-2022
- Extensive and anomalous grounding line retreat at Vanderford Glacier, Vincennes Bay, Wilkes Land, East Antarctica H. Picton et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3593-2023
- Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet M. Morlighem et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8
- Rapid fragmentation of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf D. Benn et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022
- Sensitivity of the future evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to grounding-line melt parameterizations Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024
- Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y
- Spatial probabilistic calibration of a high-resolution Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model with satellite altimeter data A. Wernecke et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1459-2020
- Stabilizing effect of bedrock uplift on retreat of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, at centennial timescales C. Book et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2022.117798
43 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Strong Ocean Melting Feedback During the Recent Retreat of Thwaites Glacier P. Holland et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103088
- Sensitivity of Totten Glacier dynamics to sliding parameterizations and ice shelf basal melt rates Y. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6187-2025
- Persistent, extensive channelized drainage modeled beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica A. Hager et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3575-2022
- Sea-level rise projections for Sweden based on the new IPCC special report: The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate M. Hieronymus & O. Kalén https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01313-8
- Emergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise F. McCormack et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10614-4
- Geospatial investigation on transitional (quiescence to surge initiation) phase dynamics of Monacobreen tidewater glacier, Svalbard D. Banerjee et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2021.08.020
- Calving cycle of the Brunt Ice Shelf, Antarctica, driven by changes in ice shelf geometry J. De Rydt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2771-2019
- Pathways and modification of warm water flowing beneath Thwaites Ice Shelf, West Antarctica A. Wåhlin et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7254
- Sedimentary Signatures of Persistent Subglacial Meltwater Drainage From Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica A. Lepp et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.863200
- Model insights into bed control on retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica E. Schwans et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.13
- Extensive inland thinning and speed-up of Northeast Greenland Ice Stream S. Khan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05301-z
- Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf cavity observations reveal multiyear sea ice dynamics and deepwater warming in Pine Island Bay, West Antarctica C. Wild et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2605-2025
- The Impact of Variable Ocean Temperatures on Totten Glacier Stability and Discharge F. McCormack et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091790
- Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector D. Bett et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024
- Thwaites Glacier thins and retreats fastest where ice-shelf channels intersect its grounding zone A. Chartrand et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024
- Basal conditions of Denman Glacier from glacier hydrology and ice dynamics modeling K. McArthur et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4705-2023
- The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica J. Barnes & G. Gudmundsson https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022
- Results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+) S. Cornford et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020
- Deglaciation of Pope Glacier implies widespread early Holocene ice sheet thinning in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica J. Johnson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116501
- Effect of Subshelf Melt Variability on Sea Level Rise Contribution From Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica M. Hoffman et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005155
- Sensitivity of ice sheet surface velocity and elevation to variations in basal friction and topography in the full Stokes and shallow-shelf approximation frameworks using adjoint equations G. Cheng et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-715-2021
- Widespread seawater intrusions beneath the grounded ice of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica E. Rignot et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2404766121
- The transferability of adjoint inversion products between different ice flow models J. Barnes et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021
- Past water flow beneath Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica J. Kirkham et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1959-2019
- Sea level rise contribution from Ryder Glacier in northern Greenland varies by an order of magnitude by 2300 depending on future emissions F. Holmes et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2695-2025
- A Multifidelity Quantile-Based Approach for Confidence Sets of Random Excursion Sets with Application to Ice-Sheet Dynamics K. Bulthuis et al. https://doi.org/10.1137/19M1280466
- Sea Level Projections From IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere Call for a New Climate Adaptation Strategy in the Skagerrak-Kattegat Seas J. Su et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.629470
- Limited Impact of Thwaites Ice Shelf on Future Ice Loss From Antarctica G. Gudmundsson et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102880
- Responses of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers to melt and sliding parameterizations I. Joughin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2583-2024
- Inverting ice surface elevation and velocity for bed topography and slipperiness beneath Thwaites Glacier H. Ockenden et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3867-2022
- Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change K. Bulthuis et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
- Rapid retreat of Thwaites Glacier in the pre-satellite era A. Graham et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01019-9
- Hard rocks and deep wetlands beneath Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica O. Zeising et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03502-2
- Modelling the Antarctic Ice Sheet across the mid-Pleistocene transition – implications for Oldest Ice J. Sutter et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2023-2019
- Bed-type variability and till (dis)continuity beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica A. Muto et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2019.32
- Derivation of bedrock topography measurement requirements for the reduction of uncertainty in ice-sheet model projections of Thwaites Glacier B. Castleman et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-761-2022
- Extensive and anomalous grounding line retreat at Vanderford Glacier, Vincennes Bay, Wilkes Land, East Antarctica H. Picton et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3593-2023
- Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet M. Morlighem et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8
- Rapid fragmentation of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf D. Benn et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022
- Sensitivity of the future evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to grounding-line melt parameterizations Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024
- Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y
- Spatial probabilistic calibration of a high-resolution Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model with satellite altimeter data A. Wernecke et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1459-2020
- Stabilizing effect of bedrock uplift on retreat of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, at centennial timescales C. Book et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2022.117798
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Latest update: 23 Jun 2026
Short summary
Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, has experienced rapid grounding line retreat and mass loss in the past decades. In this study, we simulate the evolution of Thwaites Glacier over the next century using different model configurations. Overall, we estimate a 5 mm contribution to global sea level rise from Thwaites Glacier in the next 30 years. However, a 300 % uncertainty is found over the next 100 years, ranging from 14 to 42 mm, depending on the model setup.
Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, has experienced rapid grounding line retreat and mass loss in...
