Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Research article
04 Apr 2018
Research article |  | 04 Apr 2018

Canadian snow and sea ice: historical trends and projections

Lawrence R. Mudryk, Chris Derksen, Stephen Howell, Fred Laliberté, Chad Thackeray, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Vincent Vionnet, Paul J. Kushner, and Ross Brown

Data sets

MERRA-2 tavg1_2d_lnd_Nx: 2d, 1-Hourly, Time-Averaged, Single-Level, Assimilation, Land Surface Diagnostics V5.12.4 Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

Regional charts: History, accuracy, and caveats Canadian Ice Service

MERRA-2 tavgM_2d_slv_Nx: 2d, Monthly mean, Time-Averaged, Single-Level, Assimilation, Single-Level Diagnostics V5.12.4 Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

MERRA-1 tavgM_2d_slv_Nx: MERRA 2D IAU Diagnostic, Single Level Meteorology, Monthly Mean V5.2.0 Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

ERA-Interim is a global atmospheric reanalysis from 1979, continuously updated in real time ERA-Interim

Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Japanese 25-year ReAnalysis (JRA-25) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI)

The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis [1979–2010] NOAA/National Weather Service

Short summary
This paper presents changes in both snow and sea ice that have occurred over Canada during the recent past and shows climate model estimates for future changes expected to occur by the year 2050. The historical changes of snow and sea ice are generally coherent and consistent with the regional history of temperature and precipitation changes. It is expected that snow and sea ice will continue to decrease in the future, declining by an additional 15–30 % from present day values by the year 2050.