Sensitivity, stability and future evolution of the world's northernmost ice cap, Hans Tausen Iskappe (Greenland)

Abstract. In this study the dynamics and sensitivity of Hans Tausen Iskappe (western Peary Land, Greenland) to climatic forcing is investigated with a coupled ice flow–mass balance model. The surface mass balance (SMB) is calculated from a precipitation field obtained from the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2.3), while runoff is calculated from a positive-degree-day runoff–retention model. For the ice flow a 3-D higher-order thermomechanical model is used, which is run at a 250 m resolution. A higher-order solution is needed to accurately represent the ice flow in the outlet glaciers. Under 1961–1990 climatic conditions a steady-state ice cap is obtained that is overall similar in geometry to the present-day ice cap. Ice thickness, temperature and flow velocity in the interior agree well with observations. For the outlet glaciers a reasonable agreement with temperature and ice thickness measurements can be obtained with an additional heat source related to infiltrating meltwater. The simulations indicate that the SMB–elevation feedback has a major effect on the ice cap response time and stability. This causes the southern part of the ice cap to be extremely sensitive to a change in climatic conditions and leads to thresholds in the ice cap evolution. Under constant 2005–2014 climatic conditions the entire southern part of the ice cap cannot be sustained, and the ice cap loses about 80 % of its present-day volume. The projected loss of surrounding permanent sea ice and resultant precipitation increase may attenuate the future mass loss but will be insufficient to preserve the present-day ice cap for most scenarios. In a warmer and wetter climate the ice margin will retreat, while the interior is projected to thicken, leading to a steeper ice cap, in line with the present-day observed trends. For intermediate- (+4 °C) and high- warming scenarios (+8 °C) the ice cap is projected to disappear around AD 2400 and 2200 respectively, almost independent of the projected precipitation regime and the simulated present-day geometry.