Research article
| Highlight paper
16 Feb 2017
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 16 Feb 2017
How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps
Christoph Marty et al.
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Cited
56 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Past and future snowmelt trends in the Swiss Alps: the role of temperature and snowpack M. Vorkauf et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03027-x
- Snowpack sensitivity to temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation variability over an elevational gradient in the Iberian mountains E. Alonso-González et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104973
- Assessing the impact of climate change – and its uncertainty – on snow cover areas by using cellular automata models and stochastic weather generators A. Collados-Lara et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147776
- Influence of Slope‐Scale Snowmelt on Catchment Response Simulated With the Alpine3D Model T. Brauchli et al. 10.1002/2017WR021278
- Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps D. Verfaillie et al. 10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018
- Climate Trends Impact on the Snowfall Regime in Mediterranean Mountain Areas: Future Scenario Assessment in Sierra Nevada (Spain) M. Pérez-Palazón et al. 10.3390/w10060720
- Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts P. Spandre et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-44068-8
- Suitability projection for Chinese ski areas under future natural and socioeconomic scenarios J. Deng et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.007
- Importance of snowmelt contribution to seasonal runoff and summer low flows in Czechia M. Jenicek & O. Ledvinka 10.5194/hess-24-3475-2020
- The method ADAMONT v1.0 for statistical adjustment of climate projections applicable to energy balance land surface models D. Verfaillie et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-4257-2017
- Recent evolution of damage to infrastructure on permafrost in the French Alps P. Duvillard et al. 10.1007/s10113-019-01465-z
- What affects the hydrological response of rain-on-snow events in low-altitude mountain ranges in Central Europe? R. Juras et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127002
- Are Model Transferability And Complexity Antithetical? Insights From Validation of a Variable-Complexity Empirical Snow Model in Space and Time A. Lute & C. Luce 10.1002/2017WR020752
- Snow and Climate: Feedbacks, Drivers, and Indices of Change C. Thackeray et al. 10.1007/s40641-019-00143-w
- Past changes in natural and managed snow reliability of French Alps ski resorts from 1961 to 2019 L. Berard-Chenu et al. 10.5194/tc-16-863-2022
- TopoCLIM: rapid topography-based downscaling of regional climate model output in complex terrain v1.1 J. Fiddes et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1753-2022
- Modeling of Future Changes in Seasonal Snowpack and Impacts on Summer Low Flows in Alpine Catchments M. Jenicek et al. 10.1002/2017WR021648
- Phenological and elevational shifts of plants, animals and fungi under climate change in the E uropean A lps Y. Vitasse et al. 10.1111/brv.12727
- Past and future changes of the Austrian climate – Importance for tourism M. Olefs et al. 10.1016/j.jort.2021.100395
- The Role of Snowmelt on the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Spring Recharge in a Dolomitic Mountain Group, Italian Alps G. Lucianetti et al. 10.3390/w12082256
- The impact of climate change and glacier mass loss on the hydrology in the Mont-Blanc massif L. Laurent et al. 10.1038/s41598-020-67379-7
- Using Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approaches to support climate change adaptation of Swiss Ski Resorts S. Ashraf Vaghefi et al. 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.09.005
- The European mountain cryosphere: a review of its current state, trends, and future challenges M. Beniston et al. 10.5194/tc-12-759-2018
- The Guadalfeo Monitoring Network (Sierra Nevada, Spain): 14 years of measurements to understand the complexity of snow dynamics in semiarid regions M. Polo et al. 10.5194/essd-11-393-2019
- Upward range shift of a dominant alpine shrub related to 50 years of snow cover change S. Zong et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2021.112773
- Anthropogenic climate change versus internal climate variability: impacts on snow cover in the Swiss Alps F. Willibald et al. 10.5194/tc-14-2909-2020
- Spatial variation in early‐winter snow cover determines local dynamics in a network of alpine butterfly populations J. Roland et al. 10.1111/ecog.05407
- Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change B. Pohl et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5
- Hydrological trends and the evolution of catchment research in the Alptal valley, central Switzerland M. Stähli et al. 10.1002/hyp.14113
- Snowpack dynamics in the Lebanese mountains from quasi-dynamically downscaled ERA5 reanalysis updated by assimilating remotely sensed fractional snow-covered area E. Alonso-González et al. 10.5194/hess-25-4455-2021
- Variabilité du manteau neigeux des Alpes Européennes entre 1950 et 2016 dans un contexte de changement climatique : revue bibliographique G. Klein 10.4267/climatologie.1325
- Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach F. Hanzer et al. 10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018
- Dry-Season Snow Cover Losses in the Andes (18°–40°S) driven by Changes in Large-Scale Climate Modes R. Cordero et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-53486-7
- Skill Transfer from Meteorological to Runoff Forecasts in Glacierized Catchments S. Gindraux & D. Farinotti 10.3390/hydrology5020026
- Modelling the Athabasca watershed snow response to a changing climate Y. Dibike et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.01.003
- Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869–2016: impact of changing snow covers, reservoir constructions and an intensified hydrological cycle E. Rottler et al. 10.5194/hess-24-1721-2020
- Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research K. van Ginkel et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6395
- Freezing in a warming climate: Marked declines of a subnivean hibernator after a snow drought A. Johnston et al. 10.1002/ece3.7126
- Ecophysiology of Chloromonas hindakii sp. nov. (Chlorophyceae), Causing Orange Snow Blooms at Different Light Conditions L. Procházková et al. 10.3390/microorganisms7100434
- Snowfall Fraction, Cold Content, and Energy Balance Changes Drive Differential Response to Simulated Warming in an Alpine and Subalpine Snowpack K. Jennings & N. Molotch 10.3389/feart.2020.00186
- Tree-ring δ18O from an Alpine catchment reveals changes in glacier stream water inputs between 1980 and 2010 G. Leonelli et al. 10.1080/15230430.2019.1623607
- Future changes in snowpack will impact seasonal runoff and low flows in Czechia M. Jenicek et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100899
- Snowmobile impacts on snowpack physical and mechanical properties S. Fassnacht et al. 10.5194/tc-12-1121-2018
- Vulnerability of ski tourism towards internal climate variability and climate change in the Swiss Alps F. Willibald et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147054
- Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California K. Musselman et al. 10.5194/tc-11-2847-2017
- Anticipated changes to the snow season in Alaska: Elevation dependency, timing and extremes R. Lader et al. 10.1002/joc.6201
- Two years of COVID-19 and tourism: what we learned, and what we should have learned S. Gössling & N. Schweiggart 10.1080/09669582.2022.2029872
- Thematic Issue on Snow Resources and Hydrological Cycle M. Zappa et al. 10.2478/johh-2018-0027
- Remote Sensing of Snow Cover Using Spaceborne SAR: A Review Y. Tsai et al. 10.3390/rs11121456
- Diagnosis of future changes in hydrology for a Canadian Rockies headwater basin X. Fang & J. Pomeroy 10.5194/hess-24-2731-2020
- Future changes in annual, seasonal and monthly runoff signatures in contrasting Alpine catchments in Austria S. Hanus et al. 10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021
- Assessing the effects of earlier snow melt-out on alpine shrub growth: The sooner the better? L. Francon et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106455
- Responses of Tree Seedlings near the Alpine Treeline to Delayed Snowmelt and Reduced Sky Exposure M. Bader et al. 10.3390/f9010012
- Climate Change Adaptation of Alpine Ski Tourism in Spain L. Campos Rodrigues et al. 10.3390/cli6020029
- Toward a trans-regional vulnerability assessment for Alps. A methodological approach to land cover changes over alpine landscapes, supporting urban adaptation D. Maragno et al. 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100622
- Estimating snow-cover trends from space K. Bormann et al. 10.1038/s41558-018-0318-3
56 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Past and future snowmelt trends in the Swiss Alps: the role of temperature and snowpack M. Vorkauf et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03027-x
- Snowpack sensitivity to temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation variability over an elevational gradient in the Iberian mountains E. Alonso-González et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104973
- Assessing the impact of climate change – and its uncertainty – on snow cover areas by using cellular automata models and stochastic weather generators A. Collados-Lara et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147776
- Influence of Slope‐Scale Snowmelt on Catchment Response Simulated With the Alpine3D Model T. Brauchli et al. 10.1002/2017WR021278
- Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps D. Verfaillie et al. 10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018
- Climate Trends Impact on the Snowfall Regime in Mediterranean Mountain Areas: Future Scenario Assessment in Sierra Nevada (Spain) M. Pérez-Palazón et al. 10.3390/w10060720
- Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts P. Spandre et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-44068-8
- Suitability projection for Chinese ski areas under future natural and socioeconomic scenarios J. Deng et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.007
- Importance of snowmelt contribution to seasonal runoff and summer low flows in Czechia M. Jenicek & O. Ledvinka 10.5194/hess-24-3475-2020
- The method ADAMONT v1.0 for statistical adjustment of climate projections applicable to energy balance land surface models D. Verfaillie et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-4257-2017
- Recent evolution of damage to infrastructure on permafrost in the French Alps P. Duvillard et al. 10.1007/s10113-019-01465-z
- What affects the hydrological response of rain-on-snow events in low-altitude mountain ranges in Central Europe? R. Juras et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127002
- Are Model Transferability And Complexity Antithetical? Insights From Validation of a Variable-Complexity Empirical Snow Model in Space and Time A. Lute & C. Luce 10.1002/2017WR020752
- Snow and Climate: Feedbacks, Drivers, and Indices of Change C. Thackeray et al. 10.1007/s40641-019-00143-w
- Past changes in natural and managed snow reliability of French Alps ski resorts from 1961 to 2019 L. Berard-Chenu et al. 10.5194/tc-16-863-2022
- TopoCLIM: rapid topography-based downscaling of regional climate model output in complex terrain v1.1 J. Fiddes et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1753-2022
- Modeling of Future Changes in Seasonal Snowpack and Impacts on Summer Low Flows in Alpine Catchments M. Jenicek et al. 10.1002/2017WR021648
- Phenological and elevational shifts of plants, animals and fungi under climate change in the E uropean A lps Y. Vitasse et al. 10.1111/brv.12727
- Past and future changes of the Austrian climate – Importance for tourism M. Olefs et al. 10.1016/j.jort.2021.100395
- The Role of Snowmelt on the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Spring Recharge in a Dolomitic Mountain Group, Italian Alps G. Lucianetti et al. 10.3390/w12082256
- The impact of climate change and glacier mass loss on the hydrology in the Mont-Blanc massif L. Laurent et al. 10.1038/s41598-020-67379-7
- Using Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approaches to support climate change adaptation of Swiss Ski Resorts S. Ashraf Vaghefi et al. 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.09.005
- The European mountain cryosphere: a review of its current state, trends, and future challenges M. Beniston et al. 10.5194/tc-12-759-2018
- The Guadalfeo Monitoring Network (Sierra Nevada, Spain): 14 years of measurements to understand the complexity of snow dynamics in semiarid regions M. Polo et al. 10.5194/essd-11-393-2019
- Upward range shift of a dominant alpine shrub related to 50 years of snow cover change S. Zong et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2021.112773
- Anthropogenic climate change versus internal climate variability: impacts on snow cover in the Swiss Alps F. Willibald et al. 10.5194/tc-14-2909-2020
- Spatial variation in early‐winter snow cover determines local dynamics in a network of alpine butterfly populations J. Roland et al. 10.1111/ecog.05407
- Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change B. Pohl et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5
- Hydrological trends and the evolution of catchment research in the Alptal valley, central Switzerland M. Stähli et al. 10.1002/hyp.14113
- Snowpack dynamics in the Lebanese mountains from quasi-dynamically downscaled ERA5 reanalysis updated by assimilating remotely sensed fractional snow-covered area E. Alonso-González et al. 10.5194/hess-25-4455-2021
- Variabilité du manteau neigeux des Alpes Européennes entre 1950 et 2016 dans un contexte de changement climatique : revue bibliographique G. Klein 10.4267/climatologie.1325
- Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach F. Hanzer et al. 10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018
- Dry-Season Snow Cover Losses in the Andes (18°–40°S) driven by Changes in Large-Scale Climate Modes R. Cordero et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-53486-7
- Skill Transfer from Meteorological to Runoff Forecasts in Glacierized Catchments S. Gindraux & D. Farinotti 10.3390/hydrology5020026
- Modelling the Athabasca watershed snow response to a changing climate Y. Dibike et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.01.003
- Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869–2016: impact of changing snow covers, reservoir constructions and an intensified hydrological cycle E. Rottler et al. 10.5194/hess-24-1721-2020
- Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research K. van Ginkel et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6395
- Freezing in a warming climate: Marked declines of a subnivean hibernator after a snow drought A. Johnston et al. 10.1002/ece3.7126
- Ecophysiology of Chloromonas hindakii sp. nov. (Chlorophyceae), Causing Orange Snow Blooms at Different Light Conditions L. Procházková et al. 10.3390/microorganisms7100434
- Snowfall Fraction, Cold Content, and Energy Balance Changes Drive Differential Response to Simulated Warming in an Alpine and Subalpine Snowpack K. Jennings & N. Molotch 10.3389/feart.2020.00186
- Tree-ring δ18O from an Alpine catchment reveals changes in glacier stream water inputs between 1980 and 2010 G. Leonelli et al. 10.1080/15230430.2019.1623607
- Future changes in snowpack will impact seasonal runoff and low flows in Czechia M. Jenicek et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100899
- Snowmobile impacts on snowpack physical and mechanical properties S. Fassnacht et al. 10.5194/tc-12-1121-2018
- Vulnerability of ski tourism towards internal climate variability and climate change in the Swiss Alps F. Willibald et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147054
- Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California K. Musselman et al. 10.5194/tc-11-2847-2017
- Anticipated changes to the snow season in Alaska: Elevation dependency, timing and extremes R. Lader et al. 10.1002/joc.6201
- Two years of COVID-19 and tourism: what we learned, and what we should have learned S. Gössling & N. Schweiggart 10.1080/09669582.2022.2029872
- Thematic Issue on Snow Resources and Hydrological Cycle M. Zappa et al. 10.2478/johh-2018-0027
- Remote Sensing of Snow Cover Using Spaceborne SAR: A Review Y. Tsai et al. 10.3390/rs11121456
- Diagnosis of future changes in hydrology for a Canadian Rockies headwater basin X. Fang & J. Pomeroy 10.5194/hess-24-2731-2020
- Future changes in annual, seasonal and monthly runoff signatures in contrasting Alpine catchments in Austria S. Hanus et al. 10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021
- Assessing the effects of earlier snow melt-out on alpine shrub growth: The sooner the better? L. Francon et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106455
- Responses of Tree Seedlings near the Alpine Treeline to Delayed Snowmelt and Reduced Sky Exposure M. Bader et al. 10.3390/f9010012
- Climate Change Adaptation of Alpine Ski Tourism in Spain L. Campos Rodrigues et al. 10.3390/cli6020029
- Toward a trans-regional vulnerability assessment for Alps. A methodological approach to land cover changes over alpine landscapes, supporting urban adaptation D. Maragno et al. 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100622
- Estimating snow-cover trends from space K. Bormann et al. 10.1038/s41558-018-0318-3
Discussed (final revised paper)
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 03 Jul 2022
Short summary
We simulate the future snow cover in the Alps with the help of a snow model, which is fed by projected temperature and precipitation changes from a large set of climate models. The results demonstrate that snow below 1000 m is probably a rare guest at the end of the century. Moreover, even above 3000 m the simulations show a drastic decrease in snow depth. However, the results reveal that the projected snow cover reduction can be mitigated by 50 % if we manage to keep global warming below 2°.
We simulate the future snow cover in the Alps with the help of a snow model, which is fed by...