Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-517-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-517-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
16 Feb 2017
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 16 Feb 2017
How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, 7260 Davos, Switzerland
Sebastian Schlögl
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, 7260 Davos, Switzerland
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
Mathias Bavay
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, 7260 Davos, Switzerland
Michael Lehning
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, 7260 Davos, Switzerland
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
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Cited
56 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Influence of Slope‐Scale Snowmelt on Catchment Response Simulated With the Alpine3D Model T. Brauchli et al. 10.1002/2017WR021278
- Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps D. Verfaillie et al. 10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018
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- Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts P. Spandre et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-44068-8
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- Importance of snowmelt contribution to seasonal runoff and summer low flows in Czechia M. Jenicek & O. Ledvinka 10.5194/hess-24-3475-2020
- The method ADAMONT v1.0 for statistical adjustment of climate projections applicable to energy balance land surface models D. Verfaillie et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-4257-2017
- Recent evolution of damage to infrastructure on permafrost in the French Alps P. Duvillard et al. 10.1007/s10113-019-01465-z
- What affects the hydrological response of rain-on-snow events in low-altitude mountain ranges in Central Europe? R. Juras et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127002
- Are Model Transferability And Complexity Antithetical? Insights From Validation of a Variable-Complexity Empirical Snow Model in Space and Time A. Lute & C. Luce 10.1002/2017WR020752
- Snow and Climate: Feedbacks, Drivers, and Indices of Change C. Thackeray et al. 10.1007/s40641-019-00143-w
- Past changes in natural and managed snow reliability of French Alps ski resorts from 1961 to 2019 L. Berard-Chenu et al. 10.5194/tc-16-863-2022
- TopoCLIM: rapid topography-based downscaling of regional climate model output in complex terrain v1.1 J. Fiddes et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1753-2022
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- Phenological and elevational shifts of plants, animals and fungi under climate change in the E uropean A lps Y. Vitasse et al. 10.1111/brv.12727
- Past and future changes of the Austrian climate – Importance for tourism M. Olefs et al. 10.1016/j.jort.2021.100395
- The Role of Snowmelt on the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Spring Recharge in a Dolomitic Mountain Group, Italian Alps G. Lucianetti et al. 10.3390/w12082256
- The impact of climate change and glacier mass loss on the hydrology in the Mont-Blanc massif L. Laurent et al. 10.1038/s41598-020-67379-7
- Using Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approaches to support climate change adaptation of Swiss Ski Resorts S. Ashraf Vaghefi et al. 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.09.005
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- Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach F. Hanzer et al. 10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018
- Dry-Season Snow Cover Losses in the Andes (18°–40°S) driven by Changes in Large-Scale Climate Modes R. Cordero et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-53486-7
- Skill Transfer from Meteorological to Runoff Forecasts in Glacierized Catchments S. Gindraux & D. Farinotti 10.3390/hydrology5020026
- Modelling the Athabasca watershed snow response to a changing climate Y. Dibike et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.01.003
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- Snowfall Fraction, Cold Content, and Energy Balance Changes Drive Differential Response to Simulated Warming in an Alpine and Subalpine Snowpack K. Jennings & N. Molotch 10.3389/feart.2020.00186
- Tree-ring δ18O from an Alpine catchment reveals changes in glacier stream water inputs between 1980 and 2010 G. Leonelli et al. 10.1080/15230430.2019.1623607
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- Anticipated changes to the snow season in Alaska: Elevation dependency, timing and extremes R. Lader et al. 10.1002/joc.6201
- Two years of COVID-19 and tourism: what we learned, and what we should have learned S. Gössling & N. Schweiggart 10.1080/09669582.2022.2029872
- Thematic Issue on Snow Resources and Hydrological Cycle M. Zappa et al. 10.2478/johh-2018-0027
- Remote Sensing of Snow Cover Using Spaceborne SAR: A Review Y. Tsai et al. 10.3390/rs11121456
- Diagnosis of future changes in hydrology for a Canadian Rockies headwater basin X. Fang & J. Pomeroy 10.5194/hess-24-2731-2020
- Future changes in annual, seasonal and monthly runoff signatures in contrasting Alpine catchments in Austria S. Hanus et al. 10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021
- Assessing the effects of earlier snow melt-out on alpine shrub growth: The sooner the better? L. Francon et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106455
- Responses of Tree Seedlings near the Alpine Treeline to Delayed Snowmelt and Reduced Sky Exposure M. Bader et al. 10.3390/f9010012
- Climate Change Adaptation of Alpine Ski Tourism in Spain L. Campos Rodrigues et al. 10.3390/cli6020029
- Toward a trans-regional vulnerability assessment for Alps. A methodological approach to land cover changes over alpine landscapes, supporting urban adaptation D. Maragno et al. 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100622
- Estimating snow-cover trends from space K. Bormann et al. 10.1038/s41558-018-0318-3
56 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Past and future snowmelt trends in the Swiss Alps: the role of temperature and snowpack M. Vorkauf et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03027-x
- Snowpack sensitivity to temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation variability over an elevational gradient in the Iberian mountains E. Alonso-González et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104973
- Assessing the impact of climate change – and its uncertainty – on snow cover areas by using cellular automata models and stochastic weather generators A. Collados-Lara et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147776
- Influence of Slope‐Scale Snowmelt on Catchment Response Simulated With the Alpine3D Model T. Brauchli et al. 10.1002/2017WR021278
- Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps D. Verfaillie et al. 10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018
- Climate Trends Impact on the Snowfall Regime in Mediterranean Mountain Areas: Future Scenario Assessment in Sierra Nevada (Spain) M. Pérez-Palazón et al. 10.3390/w10060720
- Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts P. Spandre et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-44068-8
- Suitability projection for Chinese ski areas under future natural and socioeconomic scenarios J. Deng et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.007
- Importance of snowmelt contribution to seasonal runoff and summer low flows in Czechia M. Jenicek & O. Ledvinka 10.5194/hess-24-3475-2020
- The method ADAMONT v1.0 for statistical adjustment of climate projections applicable to energy balance land surface models D. Verfaillie et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-4257-2017
- Recent evolution of damage to infrastructure on permafrost in the French Alps P. Duvillard et al. 10.1007/s10113-019-01465-z
- What affects the hydrological response of rain-on-snow events in low-altitude mountain ranges in Central Europe? R. Juras et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127002
- Are Model Transferability And Complexity Antithetical? Insights From Validation of a Variable-Complexity Empirical Snow Model in Space and Time A. Lute & C. Luce 10.1002/2017WR020752
- Snow and Climate: Feedbacks, Drivers, and Indices of Change C. Thackeray et al. 10.1007/s40641-019-00143-w
- Past changes in natural and managed snow reliability of French Alps ski resorts from 1961 to 2019 L. Berard-Chenu et al. 10.5194/tc-16-863-2022
- TopoCLIM: rapid topography-based downscaling of regional climate model output in complex terrain v1.1 J. Fiddes et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1753-2022
- Modeling of Future Changes in Seasonal Snowpack and Impacts on Summer Low Flows in Alpine Catchments M. Jenicek et al. 10.1002/2017WR021648
- Phenological and elevational shifts of plants, animals and fungi under climate change in the E uropean A lps Y. Vitasse et al. 10.1111/brv.12727
- Past and future changes of the Austrian climate – Importance for tourism M. Olefs et al. 10.1016/j.jort.2021.100395
- The Role of Snowmelt on the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Spring Recharge in a Dolomitic Mountain Group, Italian Alps G. Lucianetti et al. 10.3390/w12082256
- The impact of climate change and glacier mass loss on the hydrology in the Mont-Blanc massif L. Laurent et al. 10.1038/s41598-020-67379-7
- Using Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approaches to support climate change adaptation of Swiss Ski Resorts S. Ashraf Vaghefi et al. 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.09.005
- The European mountain cryosphere: a review of its current state, trends, and future challenges M. Beniston et al. 10.5194/tc-12-759-2018
- The Guadalfeo Monitoring Network (Sierra Nevada, Spain): 14 years of measurements to understand the complexity of snow dynamics in semiarid regions M. Polo et al. 10.5194/essd-11-393-2019
- Upward range shift of a dominant alpine shrub related to 50 years of snow cover change S. Zong et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2021.112773
- Anthropogenic climate change versus internal climate variability: impacts on snow cover in the Swiss Alps F. Willibald et al. 10.5194/tc-14-2909-2020
- Spatial variation in early‐winter snow cover determines local dynamics in a network of alpine butterfly populations J. Roland et al. 10.1111/ecog.05407
- Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change B. Pohl et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5
- Hydrological trends and the evolution of catchment research in the Alptal valley, central Switzerland M. Stähli et al. 10.1002/hyp.14113
- Snowpack dynamics in the Lebanese mountains from quasi-dynamically downscaled ERA5 reanalysis updated by assimilating remotely sensed fractional snow-covered area E. Alonso-González et al. 10.5194/hess-25-4455-2021
- Variabilité du manteau neigeux des Alpes Européennes entre 1950 et 2016 dans un contexte de changement climatique : revue bibliographique G. Klein 10.4267/climatologie.1325
- Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach F. Hanzer et al. 10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018
- Dry-Season Snow Cover Losses in the Andes (18°–40°S) driven by Changes in Large-Scale Climate Modes R. Cordero et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-53486-7
- Skill Transfer from Meteorological to Runoff Forecasts in Glacierized Catchments S. Gindraux & D. Farinotti 10.3390/hydrology5020026
- Modelling the Athabasca watershed snow response to a changing climate Y. Dibike et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.01.003
- Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869–2016: impact of changing snow covers, reservoir constructions and an intensified hydrological cycle E. Rottler et al. 10.5194/hess-24-1721-2020
- Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research K. van Ginkel et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6395
- Freezing in a warming climate: Marked declines of a subnivean hibernator after a snow drought A. Johnston et al. 10.1002/ece3.7126
- Ecophysiology of Chloromonas hindakii sp. nov. (Chlorophyceae), Causing Orange Snow Blooms at Different Light Conditions L. Procházková et al. 10.3390/microorganisms7100434
- Snowfall Fraction, Cold Content, and Energy Balance Changes Drive Differential Response to Simulated Warming in an Alpine and Subalpine Snowpack K. Jennings & N. Molotch 10.3389/feart.2020.00186
- Tree-ring δ18O from an Alpine catchment reveals changes in glacier stream water inputs between 1980 and 2010 G. Leonelli et al. 10.1080/15230430.2019.1623607
- Future changes in snowpack will impact seasonal runoff and low flows in Czechia M. Jenicek et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100899
- Snowmobile impacts on snowpack physical and mechanical properties S. Fassnacht et al. 10.5194/tc-12-1121-2018
- Vulnerability of ski tourism towards internal climate variability and climate change in the Swiss Alps F. Willibald et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147054
- Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California K. Musselman et al. 10.5194/tc-11-2847-2017
- Anticipated changes to the snow season in Alaska: Elevation dependency, timing and extremes R. Lader et al. 10.1002/joc.6201
- Two years of COVID-19 and tourism: what we learned, and what we should have learned S. Gössling & N. Schweiggart 10.1080/09669582.2022.2029872
- Thematic Issue on Snow Resources and Hydrological Cycle M. Zappa et al. 10.2478/johh-2018-0027
- Remote Sensing of Snow Cover Using Spaceborne SAR: A Review Y. Tsai et al. 10.3390/rs11121456
- Diagnosis of future changes in hydrology for a Canadian Rockies headwater basin X. Fang & J. Pomeroy 10.5194/hess-24-2731-2020
- Future changes in annual, seasonal and monthly runoff signatures in contrasting Alpine catchments in Austria S. Hanus et al. 10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021
- Assessing the effects of earlier snow melt-out on alpine shrub growth: The sooner the better? L. Francon et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106455
- Responses of Tree Seedlings near the Alpine Treeline to Delayed Snowmelt and Reduced Sky Exposure M. Bader et al. 10.3390/f9010012
- Climate Change Adaptation of Alpine Ski Tourism in Spain L. Campos Rodrigues et al. 10.3390/cli6020029
- Toward a trans-regional vulnerability assessment for Alps. A methodological approach to land cover changes over alpine landscapes, supporting urban adaptation D. Maragno et al. 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100622
- Estimating snow-cover trends from space K. Bormann et al. 10.1038/s41558-018-0318-3
Discussed (final revised paper)
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 04 Jun 2023
Short summary
We simulate the future snow cover in the Alps with the help of a snow model, which is fed by projected temperature and precipitation changes from a large set of climate models. The results demonstrate that snow below 1000 m is probably a rare guest at the end of the century. Moreover, even above 3000 m the simulations show a drastic decrease in snow depth. However, the results reveal that the projected snow cover reduction can be mitigated by 50 % if we manage to keep global warming below 2°.
We simulate the future snow cover in the Alps with the help of a snow model, which is fed by...
