Mountain glaciers of NE Asia in the near future: a projection based on climate-glacier systems' interaction

Abstract. In this study we consider contrasting continental (Orulgan, Suntar-Khayata and Chersky ranges located in the Pole of Cold area at the contact of Atlantic and Pacific influences) and maritime (Kamchatka under the Pacific influence) Russian glacier systems. Our purpose is to present a simple method for the projection of change of the main parameters of these glacier systems with climate change. To achieve this aim, we constructed vertical profiles of mass balance (accumulation and ablation) based both on meteorological observations for the mid to late 20th century and an ECHAM4 GCM scenario for 2040–2069. The observations and scenario were used for defining the recent and future equilibrium line altitude (ELA) for each glacier system. The altitudinal distributions of the areas covered with glacier ice were determined for present and future states of the glacier systems, taking into account the correlation of the change of the ELA and glacier-termini levels. We also give estimates of the possible changes of the areas and morphological structure of North-eastern Asia glacier systems and their mass balance characteristics from the ECHAM4 scenario. Finally, we compare characteristics of the continental and maritime glacier systems stability under conditions of global warming.