A Systematic Study of the Fracturing of Ronne - Filchner Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Using Multisource Satellite Data from 2001 to 2016

Abstract. We propose a new framework of systematic fracture mapping and major calving event prediction for the large ice shelves in Antarctica using multisource satellite data, including optical imagery, SAR imagery, altimetric data, and stereo mapping imagery. The new framework is implemented and applied for a comprehensive study of the fracturing of Ronne-Filchner Ice Shelf (RFIS), the second largest ice shelf in Antarctica, using a long time dataset dating back to 1957. New remote sensing data that have been made available in the past decade, including Landsat 8, WV-2, ZY-3 and others, greatly enhance our abilities to detect new fractures and monitor large rifts in three dimensions. Two large rifts, Rifts 1 and 2, were newly detected and are comparable to the Grand Chasm that caused a major calving event in the region in 1986. Three-dimensional rift models generated from quasi real-time stereo ZY-3 images revealed important topographic information about the large rifts that can be used to improve the reliability of ice shelf modeling and support enhanced analyses of ice shelf stability. Based on the results of the 2D and 3D fracture mapping, the spatial and temporal analyses of the overall fracture changes and large rift evolutions, i.e., the level of fracturing in RFIS, were slightly increased, particularly at the front of the ice sheet. The overall fracture observations do not seem to suggest immediate significant impacts on the stability of the shelf. However, the most active regional fracturing activities occurred at the front of Filchner Ice Shelf (FIS). A potential upcoming major calving event of FIS is estimated to occur in 2051. The stability of the ice shelf, particularly with regard to the developments of Rifts 1 and 2, should be closely monitored.