Articles | Volume 9, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
07 Aug 2015
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 07 Aug 2015
Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model
Earth System Sciences, Laver Building, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK
E. J. Burke
Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
R. L. H. Essery
Grant Institute, The King's Buildings, James Hutton Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, UK
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
M. Langer
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE), BP 96, 38402 St Martin d'Hères CEDEX, France
M. Heikenfeld
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PU, UK
P. M. Cox
Earth System Sciences, Laver Building, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK
P. Friedlingstein
Earth System Sciences, Laver Building, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK
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Cited
62 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Permafrost Map for Norway, Sweden and Finland K. Gisnås et al. 10.1002/ppp.1922
- Effects of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission in Southern Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa M. Doumbia et al. 10.3390/ijerph20237102
- Permafrost Thawing and Estimates of Vulnerable Carbon in the Northern High Latitude I. Nadeem et al. 10.1007/s41748-024-00491-0
- Standardized monitoring of permafrost thaw: a user-friendly, multiparameter protocol J. Boike et al. 10.1139/as-2021-0007
- Energy balance and Evapotranspiration response to environmental variables in the semi-arid Caatinga biome R. Carneiro et al. 10.1016/j.jsames.2024.105319
- Soil hydrology in the Earth system H. Vereecken et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00324-6
- Understanding the relative importance of vertical and horizontal flow in ice-wedge polygons N. Wales et al. 10.5194/hess-24-1109-2020
- Land surface modeling over the Dry Chaco: the impact of model structures, and soil, vegetation and land cover parameters M. Maertens et al. 10.5194/hess-25-4099-2021
- Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017
- Infiltration from the Pedon to Global Grid Scales: An Overview and Outlook for Land Surface Modeling H. Vereecken et al. 10.2136/vzj2018.10.0191
- Long-term energy balance measurements at three different mountain permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps M. Hoelzle et al. 10.5194/essd-14-1531-2022
- Challenges in Hydrologic‐Land Surface Modeling of Permafrost Signatures—A Canadian Perspective M. Abdelhamed et al. 10.1029/2022MS003013
- Utilizing Earth Observations of Soil Freeze/Thaw Data and Atmospheric Concentrations to Estimate Cold Season Methane Emissions in the Northern High Latitudes M. Tenkanen et al. 10.3390/rs13245059
- Widespread Permafrost Degradation and Thaw Subsidence in Northwest Canada H. O’Neill et al. 10.1029/2023JF007262
- Impact of snow thermal conductivity schemes on pan-Arctic permafrost dynamics in the Community Land Model version 5.0 A. Damseaux et al. 10.5194/tc-19-1539-2025
- Effects of organic soil in the Noah-MP land-surface model on simulated skin and soil temperature profiles and surface energy exchanges for China G. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105284
- Permafrost Thaw and Liberation of Inorganic Nitrogen in Eastern Siberia F. Beermann et al. 10.1002/ppp.1958
- Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model T. Yokohata et al. 10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w
- A vertical representation of soil carbon in the JULES land surface scheme (vn4.3_permafrost) with a focus on permafrost regions E. Burke et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017
- CO 2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C E. Burke et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138
- Mapping Surface Organic Soil Properties in Arctic Tundra Using C-Band SAR Data Y. Yi et al. 10.1109/JSTARS.2023.3236117
- A new approach to simulate peat accumulation, degradation and stability in a global land surface scheme (JULES vn5.8_accumulate_soil) for northern and temperate peatlands S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022
- Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models N. Steinert et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7
- Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks E. Burke et al. 10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017
- Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change E. Burke et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
- ORCHIDEE-MICT (v8.4.1), a land surface model for the high latitudes: model description and validation M. Guimberteau et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018
- Evolution and prospects of Earth system models: Challenges and opportunities X. Pan et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104986
- Permafrost Sub-grid Heterogeneity of Soil Properties Key for 3-D Soil Processes and Future Climate Projections C. Beer 10.3389/feart.2016.00081
- Modeled Microbial Dynamics Explain the Apparent Temperature Sensitivity of Wetland Methane Emissions S. Chadburn et al. 10.1029/2020GB006678
- Consequences of permafrost degradation for Arctic infrastructure – bridging the model gap between regional and engineering scales T. Schneider von Deimling et al. 10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021
- Hydrologic‐land surface modelling of the Canadian sporadic‐discontinuous permafrost: Initialization and uncertainty propagation M. Abdelhamed et al. 10.1002/hyp.14509
- Thermal regime variations of the uppermost soil layer in the central Tibetan Plateau R. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2022.106224
- Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison C. Andresen et al. 10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
- An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming S. Chadburn et al. 10.1038/nclimate3262
- Modeling the Vegetation Dynamics of Northern Shrubs and Mosses in the ORCHIDEE Land Surface Model A. Druel et al. 10.1029/2018MS001531
- Stream biogeochemical and suspended sediment responses to permafrost degradation in stream banks in Taylor Valley, Antarctica M. Gooseff et al. 10.5194/bg-13-1723-2016
- Quantifying Overestimated Permafrost Extent Driven by Rock Glacier Inventory B. Cao et al. 10.1029/2021GL092476
- Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis D. Harp et al. 10.5194/tc-10-341-2016
- Improving permafrost physics in the coupled Canadian Land Surface Scheme (v.3.6.2) and Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (v.2.1) (CLASS-CTEM) J. Melton et al. 10.5194/gmd-12-4443-2019
- Pathways of ice-wedge degradation in polygonal tundra under different hydrological conditions J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019
- Improving the representation of high-latitude vegetation distribution in dynamic global vegetation models P. Horvath et al. 10.5194/bg-18-95-2021
- Effects of bryophyte and lichen cover on permafrost soil temperature at large scale P. Porada et al. 10.5194/tc-10-2291-2016
- Inter-comparison of daily precipitation products for large-scale hydro-climatic applications over Canada J. Wong et al. 10.5194/hess-21-2163-2017
- Evaluating integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in ATS (v0.88) against observations from a polygonal tundra site A. Jan et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-2259-2020
- High-resolution meteorological forcing data for hydrological modelling and climate change impact analysis in the Mackenzie River Basin Z. Asong et al. 10.5194/essd-12-629-2020
- New northern snowpack classification linked to vegetation cover on a latitudinal mega-transect across northeastern Canada A. Royer et al. 10.1080/11956860.2021.1898775
- Exploring the role of bedrock representation on plant transpiration response during dry periods at four forested sites in Europe C. Jiménez-Rodríguez et al. 10.5194/bg-19-3395-2022
- Assessment of a hydrologic-land surface model to simulate thermo-hydrologic evolution of permafrost regions M. Abdelhamed et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132161
- Changes in productivity and carbon storage of grasslands in China under future global warming scenarios of 1.5°C and 2°C Z. Wang et al. 10.1093/jpe/rtz024
- The importance of a surface organic layer in simulating permafrost thermal and carbon dynamics E. Jafarov & K. Schaefer 10.5194/tc-10-465-2016
- Seasonal evolution of the effective thermal conductivity of the snow and the soil in high Arctic herb tundra at Bylot Island, Canada F. Domine et al. 10.5194/tc-10-2573-2016
- Snow-Covered Soil Temperature Retrieval in Canadian Arctic Permafrost Areas, Using a Land Surface Scheme Informed with Satellite Remote Sensing Data N. Marchand et al. 10.3390/rs10111703
- Assessing modelled methane emissions over northern wetlands by the JULES-HIMMELI model Y. Gao et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179526
- Process-level model evaluation: a snow and heat transfer metric A. Slater et al. 10.5194/tc-11-989-2017
- PEAT‐CLSM: A Specific Treatment of Peatland Hydrology in the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model M. Bechtold et al. 10.1029/2018MS001574
- Variability of the surface energy balance in permafrost-underlain boreal forest S. Stuenzi et al. 10.5194/bg-18-343-2021
- Elevation-based upscaling of organic carbon stocks in High-Arctic permafrost terrain: a storage and distribution assessment for Spitsbergen, Svalbard N. Weiss et al. 10.1080/17518369.2017.1400363
- Influences and interactions of inundation, peat, and snow on active layer thickness A. Atchley et al. 10.1002/2016GL068550
- The ERA5-Land soil temperature bias in permafrost regions B. Cao et al. 10.5194/tc-14-2581-2020
- An improved representation of physical permafrost dynamics in the JULES land-surface model S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015
- ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE PERMAFROST CARBON FEEDBACK L. KESSLER 10.1142/S2010007817500087
- Major Issues in Simulating Some Arctic Snowpack Properties Using Current Detailed Snow Physics Models: Consequences for the Thermal Regime and Water Budget of Permafrost F. Domine et al. 10.1029/2018MS001445
59 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Permafrost Map for Norway, Sweden and Finland K. Gisnås et al. 10.1002/ppp.1922
- Effects of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission in Southern Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa M. Doumbia et al. 10.3390/ijerph20237102
- Permafrost Thawing and Estimates of Vulnerable Carbon in the Northern High Latitude I. Nadeem et al. 10.1007/s41748-024-00491-0
- Standardized monitoring of permafrost thaw: a user-friendly, multiparameter protocol J. Boike et al. 10.1139/as-2021-0007
- Energy balance and Evapotranspiration response to environmental variables in the semi-arid Caatinga biome R. Carneiro et al. 10.1016/j.jsames.2024.105319
- Soil hydrology in the Earth system H. Vereecken et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00324-6
- Understanding the relative importance of vertical and horizontal flow in ice-wedge polygons N. Wales et al. 10.5194/hess-24-1109-2020
- Land surface modeling over the Dry Chaco: the impact of model structures, and soil, vegetation and land cover parameters M. Maertens et al. 10.5194/hess-25-4099-2021
- Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017
- Infiltration from the Pedon to Global Grid Scales: An Overview and Outlook for Land Surface Modeling H. Vereecken et al. 10.2136/vzj2018.10.0191
- Long-term energy balance measurements at three different mountain permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps M. Hoelzle et al. 10.5194/essd-14-1531-2022
- Challenges in Hydrologic‐Land Surface Modeling of Permafrost Signatures—A Canadian Perspective M. Abdelhamed et al. 10.1029/2022MS003013
- Utilizing Earth Observations of Soil Freeze/Thaw Data and Atmospheric Concentrations to Estimate Cold Season Methane Emissions in the Northern High Latitudes M. Tenkanen et al. 10.3390/rs13245059
- Widespread Permafrost Degradation and Thaw Subsidence in Northwest Canada H. O’Neill et al. 10.1029/2023JF007262
- Impact of snow thermal conductivity schemes on pan-Arctic permafrost dynamics in the Community Land Model version 5.0 A. Damseaux et al. 10.5194/tc-19-1539-2025
- Effects of organic soil in the Noah-MP land-surface model on simulated skin and soil temperature profiles and surface energy exchanges for China G. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105284
- Permafrost Thaw and Liberation of Inorganic Nitrogen in Eastern Siberia F. Beermann et al. 10.1002/ppp.1958
- Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model T. Yokohata et al. 10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w
- A vertical representation of soil carbon in the JULES land surface scheme (vn4.3_permafrost) with a focus on permafrost regions E. Burke et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017
- CO 2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C E. Burke et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138
- Mapping Surface Organic Soil Properties in Arctic Tundra Using C-Band SAR Data Y. Yi et al. 10.1109/JSTARS.2023.3236117
- A new approach to simulate peat accumulation, degradation and stability in a global land surface scheme (JULES vn5.8_accumulate_soil) for northern and temperate peatlands S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022
- Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models N. Steinert et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7
- Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks E. Burke et al. 10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017
- Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change E. Burke et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
- ORCHIDEE-MICT (v8.4.1), a land surface model for the high latitudes: model description and validation M. Guimberteau et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018
- Evolution and prospects of Earth system models: Challenges and opportunities X. Pan et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104986
- Permafrost Sub-grid Heterogeneity of Soil Properties Key for 3-D Soil Processes and Future Climate Projections C. Beer 10.3389/feart.2016.00081
- Modeled Microbial Dynamics Explain the Apparent Temperature Sensitivity of Wetland Methane Emissions S. Chadburn et al. 10.1029/2020GB006678
- Consequences of permafrost degradation for Arctic infrastructure – bridging the model gap between regional and engineering scales T. Schneider von Deimling et al. 10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021
- Hydrologic‐land surface modelling of the Canadian sporadic‐discontinuous permafrost: Initialization and uncertainty propagation M. Abdelhamed et al. 10.1002/hyp.14509
- Thermal regime variations of the uppermost soil layer in the central Tibetan Plateau R. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2022.106224
- Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison C. Andresen et al. 10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
- An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming S. Chadburn et al. 10.1038/nclimate3262
- Modeling the Vegetation Dynamics of Northern Shrubs and Mosses in the ORCHIDEE Land Surface Model A. Druel et al. 10.1029/2018MS001531
- Stream biogeochemical and suspended sediment responses to permafrost degradation in stream banks in Taylor Valley, Antarctica M. Gooseff et al. 10.5194/bg-13-1723-2016
- Quantifying Overestimated Permafrost Extent Driven by Rock Glacier Inventory B. Cao et al. 10.1029/2021GL092476
- Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis D. Harp et al. 10.5194/tc-10-341-2016
- Improving permafrost physics in the coupled Canadian Land Surface Scheme (v.3.6.2) and Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (v.2.1) (CLASS-CTEM) J. Melton et al. 10.5194/gmd-12-4443-2019
- Pathways of ice-wedge degradation in polygonal tundra under different hydrological conditions J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019
- Improving the representation of high-latitude vegetation distribution in dynamic global vegetation models P. Horvath et al. 10.5194/bg-18-95-2021
- Effects of bryophyte and lichen cover on permafrost soil temperature at large scale P. Porada et al. 10.5194/tc-10-2291-2016
- Inter-comparison of daily precipitation products for large-scale hydro-climatic applications over Canada J. Wong et al. 10.5194/hess-21-2163-2017
- Evaluating integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in ATS (v0.88) against observations from a polygonal tundra site A. Jan et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-2259-2020
- High-resolution meteorological forcing data for hydrological modelling and climate change impact analysis in the Mackenzie River Basin Z. Asong et al. 10.5194/essd-12-629-2020
- New northern snowpack classification linked to vegetation cover on a latitudinal mega-transect across northeastern Canada A. Royer et al. 10.1080/11956860.2021.1898775
- Exploring the role of bedrock representation on plant transpiration response during dry periods at four forested sites in Europe C. Jiménez-Rodríguez et al. 10.5194/bg-19-3395-2022
- Assessment of a hydrologic-land surface model to simulate thermo-hydrologic evolution of permafrost regions M. Abdelhamed et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132161
- Changes in productivity and carbon storage of grasslands in China under future global warming scenarios of 1.5°C and 2°C Z. Wang et al. 10.1093/jpe/rtz024
- The importance of a surface organic layer in simulating permafrost thermal and carbon dynamics E. Jafarov & K. Schaefer 10.5194/tc-10-465-2016
- Seasonal evolution of the effective thermal conductivity of the snow and the soil in high Arctic herb tundra at Bylot Island, Canada F. Domine et al. 10.5194/tc-10-2573-2016
- Snow-Covered Soil Temperature Retrieval in Canadian Arctic Permafrost Areas, Using a Land Surface Scheme Informed with Satellite Remote Sensing Data N. Marchand et al. 10.3390/rs10111703
- Assessing modelled methane emissions over northern wetlands by the JULES-HIMMELI model Y. Gao et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179526
- Process-level model evaluation: a snow and heat transfer metric A. Slater et al. 10.5194/tc-11-989-2017
- PEAT‐CLSM: A Specific Treatment of Peatland Hydrology in the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model M. Bechtold et al. 10.1029/2018MS001574
- Variability of the surface energy balance in permafrost-underlain boreal forest S. Stuenzi et al. 10.5194/bg-18-343-2021
- Elevation-based upscaling of organic carbon stocks in High-Arctic permafrost terrain: a storage and distribution assessment for Spitsbergen, Svalbard N. Weiss et al. 10.1080/17518369.2017.1400363
- Influences and interactions of inundation, peat, and snow on active layer thickness A. Atchley et al. 10.1002/2016GL068550
- The ERA5-Land soil temperature bias in permafrost regions B. Cao et al. 10.5194/tc-14-2581-2020
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- An improved representation of physical permafrost dynamics in the JULES land-surface model S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015
- ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE PERMAFROST CARBON FEEDBACK L. KESSLER 10.1142/S2010007817500087
- Major Issues in Simulating Some Arctic Snowpack Properties Using Current Detailed Snow Physics Models: Consequences for the Thermal Regime and Water Budget of Permafrost F. Domine et al. 10.1029/2018MS001445
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Short summary
In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We...
