Brief Communication: Newly developing rift in Larsen C Ice Shelf presents significant risk to stability

Jansen, D.; Luckman, A. J.; Cook, A.; Bevan, S.; Kulessa, B.; Hubbard, B.; Holland, P. R.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1223-2015

Articles | Volume 9, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1223-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1223-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 9, issue 3

Brief communication

| Highlight paper

|

15 Jun 2015

Brief communication | Highlight paper |

| 15 Jun 2015

Brief Communication: Newly developing rift in Larsen C Ice Shelf presents significant risk to stability

D. Jansen, A. J. Luckman, A. Cook, S. Bevan, B. Kulessa, B. Hubbard, and P. R. Holland

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Final revised paper (published on 15 Jun 2015)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 11 Feb 2015)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC C110: 'nice discovery, light but interesting early analysis', T A Scambos, 23 Feb 2015
SC C120: 'Newly developing rift in Larsen C Ice Shelf presents significant risk to stability', Mauri Pelto, 28 Feb 2015
RC C266: 'Neat observation and model application of the possibilities', Catherine Walker, 25 Mar 2015
AC C713: 'Response to reviewers', Daniela Jansen, 06 May 2015
AC C714: 'Revised Manuscript', Daniela Jansen, 06 May 2015
AC C715: 'Table of Landsat images', Daniela Jansen, 06 May 2015

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Daniela Jansen on behalf of the Authors (06 May 2015) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (08 May 2015) by Michiel van den Broeke

RR by Ted Scambos (09 May 2015)

Suggestions for revision or reasons for rejection

to be clear:
I would give it between E and G on scientific quality, but can only choose one button.

main suggestion:
The feature ~30 km downstream of the new rift is definitely not a bottom crevasse, sharpness and alignment indicate it is a surface rift. See Figure 2. The major difference is that the downstream rift is not connected to the rifts on the south side of the J suture zone. This deserves some more detailed mention and discussion - at the level of a couple of paragraphs. This is a VERY LIKELY ANALOG to what we are seeing today, i.e. the current event is not entirely unprecedented, and something similar occurred ~50-60 years ago. However, it may be that this time the stresses are greater, and are now large enough to cause the rift to propagate though the softer suture zone ice. Some comparative discussion of the two rifts could still support their general hypothesis that this new rift has the potential to continue to propagate and create a new large iceberg, because unlike the past rift, the rupture has propagated across the J suture material, and propagated further into the T suture.

a look at past imagery of the downstream rift area
(and a note on what is seen, no new fig)

Another addition that I recommend is a greater discussion of the past evolution of major calvings using old (1980s, early 1990s) literature (no new fig needed); the main argument here is that fracturing like the new rift propagation has not happened before like this, and therefore some talk of the past events is warranted. This is a focus of both main reviews - discuss past carvings, if you are going to hypothesize new calvings.

Overall, this is a good study, appropriate for a brief communication.

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ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (Editor review) (09 May 2015) by Michiel van den Broeke

AR by Daniela Jansen on behalf of the Authors (19 May 2015) Author's response

ED: Publish as is (23 May 2015) by Michiel van den Broeke

AR by Daniela Jansen on behalf of the Authors (27 May 2015)

Short summary

Within the last year, a large rift in the southern part of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, propagated towards the inner part of the ice shelf. In this study we present the development of the rift as derived from remote sensing data and assess the impact of possible calving scenarios on the future stability of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, using a numerical model. We find that the calving front is likely to become unstable after the anticipated calving events.