Articles | Volume 6, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1063-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1063-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing
E. J. Burke
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
I. P. Hartley
Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK
C. D. Jones
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
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Cited
75 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Depth‐Resolved Physicochemical Characteristics of Active Layer and Permafrost Soils in an Arctic Polygonal Tundra Region Y. Wu et al. 10.1002/2018JG004413
- Importance and strength of environmental controllers of soil organic carbon changes with scale K. Adhikari et al. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2020.114472
- Soil organic carbon stabilization by iron in permafrost regions of the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau C. Mu et al. 10.1002/2016GL070071
- Permafrost Thawing and Estimates of Vulnerable Carbon in the Northern High Latitude I. Nadeem et al. 10.1007/s41748-024-00491-0
- A New Process‐Based Soil Methane Scheme: Evaluation Over Arctic Field Sites With the ISBA Land Surface Model X. Morel et al. 10.1029/2018MS001329
- Scaling impacts on environmental controls and spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon stocks U. Mishra & W. Riley 10.5194/bg-12-3993-2015
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- Elevation-based upscaling of organic carbon stocks in High-Arctic permafrost terrain: a storage and distribution assessment for Spitsbergen, Svalbard N. Weiss et al. 10.1080/17518369.2017.1400363
- Divergent patterns of experimental and model-derived permafrost ecosystem carbon dynamics in response to Arctic warming C. Schädel et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aae0ff
- Diverging responses of high-latitude CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions in idealized climate change scenarios P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021
- Significant role of permafrost in regional hydrology of the Upper Indus Basin, India G. Jeelani et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170863
- Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity T. Schneider von Deimling et al. 10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015
- Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8
- Atmospheric methane removal: a research agenda R. Jackson et al. 10.1098/rsta.2020.0454
- CO 2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C E. Burke et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138
- A vertical representation of soil carbon in the JULES land surface scheme (vn4.3_permafrost) with a focus on permafrost regions E. Burke et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017
- The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response J. Lowe & D. Bernie 10.1098/rsta.2017.0263
- Estimation of Permafrost SOC Stock and Turnover Time Using a Land Surface Model With Vertical Heterogeneity of Permafrost Soils S. Shu et al. 10.1029/2020GB006585
- The permafrost carbon feedback in DICE-2013R modeling and empirical results H. Wirths et al. 10.1007/s10018-017-0186-5
- Changes in the structure and function of northern Alaskan ecosystems when considering variable leaf‐out times across groupings of species in a dynamic vegetation model E. Euskirchen et al. 10.1111/gcb.12392
- Modeling permafrost thaw and ecosystem carbon cycle under annual and seasonal warming at an Arctic tundra site in Alaska J. Li et al. 10.1002/2013JG002569
- Frozen carbon is gradually thawing: Assessing interannual dynamics of thawed soil organic carbon stocks in the Tibetan Plateau permafrost area from 1901−2020 T. Shen et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109793
- Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: a review of recent progress and remaining challenges U. Mishra et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035020
- Application of a Bayesian belief network for assessing the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw and implications for greenhouse gas production and climate feedback K. Webster & J. McLaughlin 10.1016/j.envsci.2013.10.008
- Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015
- ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE PERMAFROST CARBON FEEDBACK L. KESSLER 10.1142/S2010007817500087
- The Business Side of Ecosystem Services of Soil Systems E. Mikhailova et al. 10.3390/earth1020002
- The Business Side of Ecosystem Services of Soil Systems E. Mikhailova et al. 10.3390/earth1010002
- Estimated effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on the zero emissions commitment to climate change A. MacDougall 10.5194/bg-18-4937-2021
- Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback E. Schuur et al. 10.1038/nature14338
- Editorial: Organic carbon pools in permafrost regions on the Qinghai–Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau C. Mu et al. 10.5194/tc-9-479-2015
- Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps G. Hugelius et al. 10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014
- Investigating the controls on soil organic matter decomposition in tussock tundra soil and permafrost after fire S. De Baets et al. 10.1016/j.soilbio.2016.04.020
- Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation K. Nishina et al. 10.5194/esd-5-197-2014
- The impacts of recent permafrost thaw on land–atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange D. Hayes et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045005
- Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009 A. McGuire et al. 10.1002/2016GB005405
- Increasing coastal slump activity impacts the release of sediment and organic carbon into the Arctic Ocean J. Ramage et al. 10.5194/bg-15-1483-2018
- Patchy field sampling biases understanding of climate change impacts across the Arctic D. Metcalfe et al. 10.1038/s41559-018-0612-5
- Organic carbon stocks, quality and prediction in permafrost-affected forest soils in North Canada M. Schiedung et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2022.106194
- CO2 Emissions Determined by HadGEM2-ES to be Compatible with the Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios and Their Extensions S. Liddicoat et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00569.1
- The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models N. Stern 10.1257/jel.51.3.838
- The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate K. Schaefer et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085003
- An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming S. Chadburn et al. 10.1038/nclimate3262
- Lability classification of soil organic matter in the northern permafrost region P. Kuhry et al. 10.5194/bg-17-361-2020
- The Contribution from Methane to the Permafrost Carbon Feedback C. Nzotungicimpaye & K. Zickfeld 10.1007/s40641-017-0054-1
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- Sedimentary organic carbon storage of thermokarst lakes and ponds across Tibetan permafrost region Z. Wei et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154761
- Evaluation of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model version 2.10 (UVic ESCM 2.10) N. Mengis et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-4183-2020
- A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf D. Woodard et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
- Environmental controls on soil organic carbon and nitrogen stocks in the high‐altitude arid western Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau permafrost region X. Wu et al. 10.1002/2015JG003138
- Observation and modelling of snow at a polygonal tundra permafrost site: spatial variability and thermal implications I. Gouttevin et al. 10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018
- Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks E. Burke et al. 10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017
- Contributions of natural systems and human activity to greenhouse gas emissions X. YUE & Q. GAO 10.1016/j.accre.2018.12.003
- Permafrost and environmental dynamics: A virtual issue of The Holocene J. Hiemstra 10.1177/0959683618785835
- Estimating the Permafrost-Carbon Climate Response in the CMIP5 Climate Models Using a Simplified Approach E. Burke et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00550.1
- Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model T. Yokohata et al. 10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8
- Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic J. Fisher et al. 10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014
- Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Permafrost at Risk in the Late 21st Century G. Zhang et al. 10.1029/2022EF002652
- New low-cost automated system of closed chambers to measure greenhouse gas emissions from the tundra S. Gagnon et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.06.012
- Permafrost thawing puts the frozen carbon at risk over the Tibetan Plateau T. Wang et al. 10.1126/sciadv.aaz3513
- An improved representation of physical permafrost dynamics in the JULES land-surface model S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015
- Observational needs for estimating Alaskan soil carbon stocks under current and future climate U. Vitharana et al. 10.1002/2016JG003421
- Role of vegetation change in future climate under the A1B scenario and a climate stabilisation scenario, using the HadCM3C Earth system model P. Falloon et al. 10.5194/bg-9-4739-2012
- Permafrost soils and carbon cycling C. Ping et al. 10.5194/soil-1-147-2015
- Spatial representation of organic carbon and active-layer thickness of high latitude soils in CMIP5 earth system models U. Mishra et al. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2016.04.017
- Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach A. MacDougall & R. Knutti 10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016
- Deep Yedoma permafrost: A synthesis of depositional characteristics and carbon vulnerability J. Strauss et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.07.007
- Description and Evaluation of an Emission‐Driven and Fully Coupled Methane Cycle in UKESM1 G. Folberth et al. 10.1029/2021MS002982
- Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017
- Simulating high-latitude permafrost regions by the JSBACH terrestrial ecosystem model A. Ekici et al. 10.5194/gmd-7-631-2014
- Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations J. Murphy et al. 10.1007/s00382-014-2097-5
- Large uncertainty in permafrost carbon stocks due to hillslope soil deposits E. Shelef et al. 10.1002/2017GL073823
- A retrospective analysis of pan Arctic permafrost using the JULES land surface model E. Burke et al. 10.1007/s00382-012-1648-x
72 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Depth‐Resolved Physicochemical Characteristics of Active Layer and Permafrost Soils in an Arctic Polygonal Tundra Region Y. Wu et al. 10.1002/2018JG004413
- Importance and strength of environmental controllers of soil organic carbon changes with scale K. Adhikari et al. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2020.114472
- Soil organic carbon stabilization by iron in permafrost regions of the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau C. Mu et al. 10.1002/2016GL070071
- Permafrost Thawing and Estimates of Vulnerable Carbon in the Northern High Latitude I. Nadeem et al. 10.1007/s41748-024-00491-0
- A New Process‐Based Soil Methane Scheme: Evaluation Over Arctic Field Sites With the ISBA Land Surface Model X. Morel et al. 10.1029/2018MS001329
- Scaling impacts on environmental controls and spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon stocks U. Mishra & W. Riley 10.5194/bg-12-3993-2015
- Sensitivity of Arctic CH4 emissions to landscape wetness diminished by atmospheric feedbacks P. de Vrese et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01715-3
- Elevation-based upscaling of organic carbon stocks in High-Arctic permafrost terrain: a storage and distribution assessment for Spitsbergen, Svalbard N. Weiss et al. 10.1080/17518369.2017.1400363
- Divergent patterns of experimental and model-derived permafrost ecosystem carbon dynamics in response to Arctic warming C. Schädel et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aae0ff
- Diverging responses of high-latitude CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions in idealized climate change scenarios P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021
- Significant role of permafrost in regional hydrology of the Upper Indus Basin, India G. Jeelani et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170863
- Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity T. Schneider von Deimling et al. 10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015
- Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8
- Atmospheric methane removal: a research agenda R. Jackson et al. 10.1098/rsta.2020.0454
- CO 2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C E. Burke et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138
- A vertical representation of soil carbon in the JULES land surface scheme (vn4.3_permafrost) with a focus on permafrost regions E. Burke et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017
- The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response J. Lowe & D. Bernie 10.1098/rsta.2017.0263
- Estimation of Permafrost SOC Stock and Turnover Time Using a Land Surface Model With Vertical Heterogeneity of Permafrost Soils S. Shu et al. 10.1029/2020GB006585
- The permafrost carbon feedback in DICE-2013R modeling and empirical results H. Wirths et al. 10.1007/s10018-017-0186-5
- Changes in the structure and function of northern Alaskan ecosystems when considering variable leaf‐out times across groupings of species in a dynamic vegetation model E. Euskirchen et al. 10.1111/gcb.12392
- Modeling permafrost thaw and ecosystem carbon cycle under annual and seasonal warming at an Arctic tundra site in Alaska J. Li et al. 10.1002/2013JG002569
- Frozen carbon is gradually thawing: Assessing interannual dynamics of thawed soil organic carbon stocks in the Tibetan Plateau permafrost area from 1901−2020 T. Shen et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109793
- Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: a review of recent progress and remaining challenges U. Mishra et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035020
- Application of a Bayesian belief network for assessing the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw and implications for greenhouse gas production and climate feedback K. Webster & J. McLaughlin 10.1016/j.envsci.2013.10.008
- Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015
- ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE PERMAFROST CARBON FEEDBACK L. KESSLER 10.1142/S2010007817500087
- The Business Side of Ecosystem Services of Soil Systems E. Mikhailova et al. 10.3390/earth1020002
- The Business Side of Ecosystem Services of Soil Systems E. Mikhailova et al. 10.3390/earth1010002
- Estimated effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on the zero emissions commitment to climate change A. MacDougall 10.5194/bg-18-4937-2021
- Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback E. Schuur et al. 10.1038/nature14338
- Editorial: Organic carbon pools in permafrost regions on the Qinghai–Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau C. Mu et al. 10.5194/tc-9-479-2015
- Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps G. Hugelius et al. 10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014
- Investigating the controls on soil organic matter decomposition in tussock tundra soil and permafrost after fire S. De Baets et al. 10.1016/j.soilbio.2016.04.020
- Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation K. Nishina et al. 10.5194/esd-5-197-2014
- The impacts of recent permafrost thaw on land–atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange D. Hayes et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045005
- Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009 A. McGuire et al. 10.1002/2016GB005405
- Increasing coastal slump activity impacts the release of sediment and organic carbon into the Arctic Ocean J. Ramage et al. 10.5194/bg-15-1483-2018
- Patchy field sampling biases understanding of climate change impacts across the Arctic D. Metcalfe et al. 10.1038/s41559-018-0612-5
- Organic carbon stocks, quality and prediction in permafrost-affected forest soils in North Canada M. Schiedung et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2022.106194
- CO2 Emissions Determined by HadGEM2-ES to be Compatible with the Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios and Their Extensions S. Liddicoat et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00569.1
- The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models N. Stern 10.1257/jel.51.3.838
- The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate K. Schaefer et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085003
- An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming S. Chadburn et al. 10.1038/nclimate3262
- Lability classification of soil organic matter in the northern permafrost region P. Kuhry et al. 10.5194/bg-17-361-2020
- The Contribution from Methane to the Permafrost Carbon Feedback C. Nzotungicimpaye & K. Zickfeld 10.1007/s40641-017-0054-1
- Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected high-latitude CO 2 and CH 4 emissions D. Lawrence et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094011
- Regional environmental controllers influence continental scale soil carbon stocks and future carbon dynamics D. Gonçalves et al. 10.1038/s41598-021-85992-y
- Nitrogen cycling in CMIP6 land surface models: progress and limitations T. Davies-Barnard et al. 10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020
- Sedimentary organic carbon storage of thermokarst lakes and ponds across Tibetan permafrost region Z. Wei et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154761
- Evaluation of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model version 2.10 (UVic ESCM 2.10) N. Mengis et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-4183-2020
- A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf D. Woodard et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
- Environmental controls on soil organic carbon and nitrogen stocks in the high‐altitude arid western Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau permafrost region X. Wu et al. 10.1002/2015JG003138
- Observation and modelling of snow at a polygonal tundra permafrost site: spatial variability and thermal implications I. Gouttevin et al. 10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018
- Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks E. Burke et al. 10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017
- Contributions of natural systems and human activity to greenhouse gas emissions X. YUE & Q. GAO 10.1016/j.accre.2018.12.003
- Permafrost and environmental dynamics: A virtual issue of The Holocene J. Hiemstra 10.1177/0959683618785835
- Estimating the Permafrost-Carbon Climate Response in the CMIP5 Climate Models Using a Simplified Approach E. Burke et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00550.1
- Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model T. Yokohata et al. 10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8
- Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic J. Fisher et al. 10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014
- Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Permafrost at Risk in the Late 21st Century G. Zhang et al. 10.1029/2022EF002652
- New low-cost automated system of closed chambers to measure greenhouse gas emissions from the tundra S. Gagnon et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.06.012
- Permafrost thawing puts the frozen carbon at risk over the Tibetan Plateau T. Wang et al. 10.1126/sciadv.aaz3513
- An improved representation of physical permafrost dynamics in the JULES land-surface model S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015
- Observational needs for estimating Alaskan soil carbon stocks under current and future climate U. Vitharana et al. 10.1002/2016JG003421
- Role of vegetation change in future climate under the A1B scenario and a climate stabilisation scenario, using the HadCM3C Earth system model P. Falloon et al. 10.5194/bg-9-4739-2012
- Permafrost soils and carbon cycling C. Ping et al. 10.5194/soil-1-147-2015
- Spatial representation of organic carbon and active-layer thickness of high latitude soils in CMIP5 earth system models U. Mishra et al. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2016.04.017
- Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach A. MacDougall & R. Knutti 10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016
- Deep Yedoma permafrost: A synthesis of depositional characteristics and carbon vulnerability J. Strauss et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.07.007
- Description and Evaluation of an Emission‐Driven and Fully Coupled Methane Cycle in UKESM1 G. Folberth et al. 10.1029/2021MS002982
- Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017
- Simulating high-latitude permafrost regions by the JSBACH terrestrial ecosystem model A. Ekici et al. 10.5194/gmd-7-631-2014
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations J. Murphy et al. 10.1007/s00382-014-2097-5
- Large uncertainty in permafrost carbon stocks due to hillslope soil deposits E. Shelef et al. 10.1002/2017GL073823
- A retrospective analysis of pan Arctic permafrost using the JULES land surface model E. Burke et al. 10.1007/s00382-012-1648-x
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