Articles | Volume 19, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A topographically controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice sheet melt
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht, the Netherlands
Laura Muntjewerf
Dynamic People B.V., Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Miren Vizcaino
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Delft, the Netherlands
Raymond Sellevold
Agder Energi, Kristiansand, Norway
Gunter R. Leguy
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
William H. Lipscomb
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
Heiko Goelzer
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
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Total article views: 11,600 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Cited
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Exploring the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response to future atmospheric warming-threshold scenarios over 200 years A. Delhasse et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4459-2025
- CMIP7 data request: Earth system priorities and opportunities M. McPartland et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2849-2026
- Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse K. Kypke et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-769-2026
- Hysteresis of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to the future L. Gutiérrez-González et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1139-2026
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
- Investigating the multi-millennial evolution and stability of the Greenland ice sheet using remapped surface mass balance forcing C. Rahlves et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6403-2025
- Assessing effectiveness of critical slowing down in a non-idealised timeseries of the Greenland ice sheet in a paleo-climate model run R. Chapman et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ae8d6e
- Destabilization of Earth system tipping elements N. Boers et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01787-0
- Stabilizing feedbacks allow for multiple states of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a fully coupled Earth System – Ice Sheet Model M. Andernach et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1047-2026
- Environmental informatics and remote sensing: modern trends in studies of environment and multi-dimensional global change A. Kokhanovsky https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1607253
- Interactive coupling of a Greenland ice sheet model in NorESM2 H. Goelzer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7853-2025
- A simple dynamical system for representing climate tipping points with hysteresis C. Huntingford et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-385-2026
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Exploring the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response to future atmospheric warming-threshold scenarios over 200 years A. Delhasse et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4459-2025
- CMIP7 data request: Earth system priorities and opportunities M. McPartland et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2849-2026
- Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse K. Kypke et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-769-2026
- Hysteresis of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to the future L. Gutiérrez-González et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1139-2026
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
- Investigating the multi-millennial evolution and stability of the Greenland ice sheet using remapped surface mass balance forcing C. Rahlves et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6403-2025
- Assessing effectiveness of critical slowing down in a non-idealised timeseries of the Greenland ice sheet in a paleo-climate model run R. Chapman et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ae8d6e
- Destabilization of Earth system tipping elements N. Boers et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01787-0
- Stabilizing feedbacks allow for multiple states of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a fully coupled Earth System – Ice Sheet Model M. Andernach et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1047-2026
- Environmental informatics and remote sensing: modern trends in studies of environment and multi-dimensional global change A. Kokhanovsky https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1607253
- Interactive coupling of a Greenland ice sheet model in NorESM2 H. Goelzer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7853-2025
- A simple dynamical system for representing climate tipping points with hysteresis C. Huntingford et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-385-2026
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 16 Aug 2026
Editorial statement
This interesting study investigates the vulnerability of the Greenland ice sheet to climate warming. Specifically, the article addresses what it takes to make the Greenland ice sheet disappear—an event that would cause several metres of sea-level rise. The authors show that a tipping-point behaviour can be identified in their model, demonstrating that once a threshold has been crossed, Greenland becomes almost completely ice-free.
This interesting study investigates the vulnerability of the Greenland ice sheet to climate...
Short summary
Anthropogenic warming is causing accelerated Greenland ice sheet melt. Here, we use a computer model to understand how prolonged warming and ice melt could threaten ice sheet stability. We find a threshold beyond which Greenland will lose more than 80 % of its ice over several thousand years, due to the interaction of surface and solid-Earth processes. Nearly complete Greenland ice sheet melt occurs when the ice margin disconnects from a region of high elevation in western Greenland.
Anthropogenic warming is causing accelerated Greenland ice sheet melt. Here, we use a computer...