Articles | Volume 19, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4335-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4335-2025
Research article
 | 
07 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 07 Oct 2025

Interannual variability in air temperature and snow drives differences in ice formation and growth

Arash Rafat and Homa Kheyrollah Pour

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Cited articles

Apsîte, E., Elferts, D., Andrejs, Z., and Latkovska, I.: Long-term changes in hydrological regime of the lakes in Latvia, Hydrol. Res., 45, 308–321, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2013.435, 2014. 
ASTM International: Standard Test Method for Determination of Thermal Conductivity of Soil and Rock by Thermal Needle Probe Procedure D5334-22, https://doi.org/10.1520/D5334-22, 2022. 
Attiah, G., Kheyrollah Pour, H., and Scott, K. A.: Four decades of lake surface temperature in the Northwest Territories, Canada, using a lake-specific satellite-derived dataset. J. Hydrol.: Reg. Stud., 50, 101571, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EJRH.2023.101571, 2023. 
Barrette, P. D., Hori, Y., and Kim, A. M.: The Canadian winter road infrastructure in a warming climate: Toward resiliency assessment and resource prioritization, Sustain. Resilient Infrastruct., 7, 842–860, https://doi.org/10.1080/23789689.2022.2094124, 2022. 
Basu, A., Culpepper, J., Blagrave, K., and Sharma, S.: Phenological Shifts in Lake Ice Cover Across the Northern Hemisphere: A Glimpse Into the Past, Present, and the Future of Lake Ice Phenology, Water Resour. Res., 60, e2023WR036392, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036392, 2024. 
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Short summary
Climate change in Canada’s Northwest Territories (NWT) is making lake ice less predictable, thereby affecting ice road safety for northern communities. In this study, observations of significant changes in ice formation and growth between October and December of 2021–2023 in a small NWT lake are related to changes in local snowfall and air temperatures. Collected data were used to develop simple models that can be applied to ice road planning, construction, and design under future and current climate change.
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