Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-911-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-911-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Feb 2024
Research article |
| 28 Feb 2024
| 28 Feb 2024
Local forcing mechanisms challenge parameterizations of ocean thermal forcing for Greenland tidewater glaciers
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, USA
David A. Sutherland
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, USA
Donald A. Slater
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Related authors
Alexander O. Hager, Matthew J. Hoffman, Stephen F. Price, and Dustin M. Schroeder
The Cryosphere, 16, 3575–3599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The presence of water beneath glaciers is a control on glacier speed and ocean-caused melting, yet it has been unclear whether sizable volumes of water can exist beneath Antarctic glaciers or how this water may flow along the glacier bed. We use computer simulations, supported by observations, to show that enough water exists at the base of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, to form "rivers" beneath the glacier. These rivers likely moderate glacier speed and may influence its rate of retreat.
Nicole Abib, David A. Sutherland, Rachel Peterson, Ginny Catania, Jonathan D. Nash, Emily L. Shroyer, Leigh A. Stearns, and Timothy C. Bartholomaus
The Cryosphere, 18, 4817–4829, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The melting of ice mélange, or dense packs of icebergs and sea ice in glacial fjords, can influence the water column by releasing cold fresh water deep under the ocean surface. However, direct observations of this process have remained elusive. We use measurements of ocean temperature, salinity, and velocity bookending an episodic ice mélange event to show that this meltwater input changes the density profile of a glacial fjord and has implications for understanding tidewater glacier change.
Donald A. Slater and Till J. W. Wagner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2927, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Calving is when icebergs break off glaciers and fall into the ocean. It is an important process determining how ice sheets will respond to change in climate, but it is currently poorly understood and hard to include in numerical models that are used for sea level projections. We revised an existing theory for how this process works, overcoming shortcomings of the existing theory and explaining observations showing that calving style depends on how thick the ice is.
Dominik Fahrner, Donald Slater, Aman KC, Claudia Cenedese, David A. Sutherland, Ellyn Enderlin, Femke de Jong, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Michael Wood, Peter Nienow, Sophie Nowicki, and Till Wagner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-411, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-411, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Marine-terminating glaciers can lose mass through frontal ablation, which comprises submarine and surface melting, and iceberg calving. We estimate frontal ablation for 49 marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland by combining existing, satellite derived data and calculating volume change near the glacier front over time. The dataset offers exciting opportunities to study the influence of climate forcings on marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland over multi-decadal timescales.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Alexander O. Hager, Matthew J. Hoffman, Stephen F. Price, and Dustin M. Schroeder
The Cryosphere, 16, 3575–3599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The presence of water beneath glaciers is a control on glacier speed and ocean-caused melting, yet it has been unclear whether sizable volumes of water can exist beneath Antarctic glaciers or how this water may flow along the glacier bed. We use computer simulations, supported by observations, to show that enough water exists at the base of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, to form "rivers" beneath the glacier. These rivers likely moderate glacier speed and may influence its rate of retreat.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lijing Cheng, Matthew D. Palmer, James Hansen, Caterina Tassone, Valentin Aich, Susheel Adusumilli, Hugo Beltrami, Tim Boyer, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Damien Desbruyères, Catia Domingues, Almudena García-García, Pierre Gentine, John Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Masayoshi Ishii, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian A. King, Gottfried Kirchengast, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, John Lyman, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Maeva Monier, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Axel Schweiger, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Andrew Shepherd, Donald A. Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Fiammetta Straneo, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Susan E. Wijffels
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to obtain the Earth heat inventory over the period 1960–2018.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Eva De Andrés, Donald A. Slater, Fiamma Straneo, Jaime Otero, Sarah Das, and Francisco Navarro
The Cryosphere, 14, 1951–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1951-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1951-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Buoyant plumes at tidewater glaciers result from localized subglacial discharges of surface melt. They promote glacier submarine melting and influence the delivery of nutrients to the fjord's surface waters. Combining plume theory with observations, we have found that increased fjord stratification, which is due to larger meltwater content, prevents the vertical growth of the plume and buffers submarine melting. We discuss the implications for nutrient fluxes, CO2 trapping and water export.
Donald A. Slater, Denis Felikson, Fiamma Straneo, Heiko Goelzer, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Xavier Fettweis, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 14, 985–1008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in the ocean around Greenland play an important role in determining how much the ice sheet will contribute to global sea level over the coming century. However, capturing these links in models is very challenging. This paper presents a strategy enabling an ensemble of ice sheet models to feel the effect of the ocean for the first time and should therefore result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea level change.
Samuel J. Cook, Poul Christoffersen, Joe Todd, Donald Slater, and Nolwenn Chauché
The Cryosphere, 14, 905–924, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-905-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper models how water flows beneath a large Greenlandic glacier and how the structure of the drainage system it flows in changes over time. We also look at how this affects melting driven by freshwater plumes at the glacier front, as well as the implications for glacier flow and sea-level rise. We find an active drainage system and plumes exist year round, contradicting previous assumptions and suggesting more melting may not slow the glacier down, unlike at other sites in Greenland.
Donald A. Slater, Fiamma Straneo, Denis Felikson, Christopher M. Little, Heiko Goelzer, Xavier Fettweis, and James Holte
The Cryosphere, 13, 2489–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean's influence on the retreat of Greenland's tidewater glaciers is a key factor determining future sea level. By considering observations of ~200 glaciers from 1960, we find a significant relationship between retreat and melting in the ocean. Projected forwards, this relationship estimates the future evolution of Greenland's tidewater glaciers and provides a practical and empirically validated way of representing ice–ocean interaction in large-scale models used to estimate sea level rise.
Till J. W. Wagner, Fiamma Straneo, Clark G. Richards, Donald A. Slater, Laura A. Stevens, Sarah B. Das, and Hanumant Singh
The Cryosphere, 13, 911–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-911-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-911-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows how complex and varied the processes are that determine the frontal position of tidewater glaciers. Rather than uniform melt or calving rates, a single (medium-sized) glacier can feature regions that retreat almost exclusively due to melting and other regions that retreat only due to calving. This has far-reaching consequences for our understanding of how glaciers retreat or advance.
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Ocean Interactions
Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science
Modelling Antarctic ice shelf basal melt patterns using the one-layer Antarctic model for dynamical downscaling of ice–ocean exchanges (LADDIE v1.0)
Basal melt rates and ocean circulation under the Ryder Glacier ice tongue and their response to climate warming: a high-resolution modelling study
Can rifts alter ocean dynamics beneath ice shelves?
Large-eddy simulations of the ice-shelf–ocean boundary layer near the ice front of Nansen Ice Shelf, Antarctica
The impact of tides on Antarctic ice shelf melting
Layered seawater intrusion and melt under grounded ice
The Antarctic Coastal Current in the Bellingshausen Sea
Surface emergence of glacial plumes determined by fjord stratification
Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution
Exploring mechanisms responsible for tidal modulation in flow of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf
Melt at grounding line controls observed and future retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler glaciers
Sensitivity of a calving glacier to ice–ocean interactions under climate change: new insights from a 3-D full-Stokes model
Brief communication: PICOP, a new ocean melt parameterization under ice shelves combining PICO and a plume model
Seasonal dynamics of Totten Ice Shelf controlled by sea ice buttressing
Grounding line migration through the calving season at Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland, observed with terrestrial radar interferometry
William H. Lipscomb, David Behar, and Monica Ainhorn Morrison
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-534, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As communities try to adapt to climate change, they look for “actionable science” that can inform decision-making. There are risks in relying on novel results that are not yet accepted by the science community. We propose a practical criterion for determining which scientific claims are actionable. We show how premature acceptance of sea-level rise predictions can lead to confusion and backtracking, and we suggest best practices for communication between scientists and adaptation planners.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Jonathan Wiskandt, Inga Monika Koszalka, and Johan Nilsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 2755–2777, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding ice–ocean interactions under floating ice tongues in Greenland and Antarctica is a major challenge in climate modelling and a source of uncertainty in future sea level projections. We use a high-resolution ocean model to investigate basal melting and melt-driven circulation under the floating tongue of Ryder Glacier, northwestern Greenland. We study the response to oceanic and atmospheric warming. Our results are universal and relevant for the development of climate models.
Mattia Poinelli, Michael Schodlok, Eric Larour, Miren Vizcaino, and Riccardo Riva
The Cryosphere, 17, 2261–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rifts are fractures on ice shelves that connect the ice on top to the ocean below. The impact of rifts on ocean circulation below Antarctic ice shelves has been largely unexplored as ocean models are commonly run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve the presence of rifts. Our model simulations show that a kilometer-wide rift near the ice-shelf front modulates heat intrusion beneath the ice and inhibits basal melt. These processes are therefore worthy of further investigation.
Ji Sung Na, Taekyun Kim, Emilia Kyung Jin, Seung-Tae Yoon, Won Sang Lee, Sukyoung Yun, and Jiyeon Lee
The Cryosphere, 16, 3451–3468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Beneath the Antarctic ice shelf, sub-ice-shelf plume flow that can cause turbulent mixing exists. In this study, we investigate how this flow affects ocean dynamics and ice melting near the ice front. Our results obtained by validated simulation show that higher turbulence intensity results in vigorous ice melting due to the high heat entrainment. Moreover, this flow with meltwater created by this flow highly affects the ocean overturning circulations near the ice front.
Ole Richter, David E. Gwyther, Matt A. King, and Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi
The Cryosphere, 16, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1409-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1409-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tidal currents may play an important role in Antarctic ice sheet retreat by changing the rate at which the ocean melts glaciers. Here, using a computational ocean model, we derive the first estimate of present-day tidal melting that covers all of Antarctica. Our results suggest that large-scale ocean models aiming to accurately predict ice melt rates will need to account for the effects of tides. The inclusion of tide-induced friction at the ice–ocean interface should be prioritized.
Alexander A. Robel, Earle Wilson, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 16, 451–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Warm seawater may intrude as a thin layer below glaciers in contact with the ocean. Mathematical theory predicts that this intrusion may extend over distances of kilometers under realistic conditions. Computer models demonstrate that if this warm seawater causes melting of a glacier bottom, it can cause rates of glacier ice loss and sea level rise to be up to 2 times faster in response to potential future ocean warming.
Ryan Schubert, Andrew F. Thompson, Kevin Speer, Lena Schulze Chretien, and Yana Bebieva
The Cryosphere, 15, 4179–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4179-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Coastal Current (AACC) is an ocean current found along the coast of Antarctica. Using measurements of temperature and salinity collected by instrumented seals, the AACC is shown to be a continuous circulation feature throughout West Antarctica. Due to its proximity to the coast, the AACC's structure influences oceanic melting of West Antarctic ice shelves. These melt rates impact the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet with global implications for future sea level change.
Eva De Andrés, Donald A. Slater, Fiamma Straneo, Jaime Otero, Sarah Das, and Francisco Navarro
The Cryosphere, 14, 1951–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1951-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1951-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Buoyant plumes at tidewater glaciers result from localized subglacial discharges of surface melt. They promote glacier submarine melting and influence the delivery of nutrients to the fjord's surface waters. Combining plume theory with observations, we have found that increased fjord stratification, which is due to larger meltwater content, prevents the vertical growth of the plume and buffers submarine melting. We discuss the implications for nutrient fluxes, CO2 trapping and water export.
Donald A. Slater, Denis Felikson, Fiamma Straneo, Heiko Goelzer, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Xavier Fettweis, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 14, 985–1008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in the ocean around Greenland play an important role in determining how much the ice sheet will contribute to global sea level over the coming century. However, capturing these links in models is very challenging. This paper presents a strategy enabling an ensemble of ice sheet models to feel the effect of the ocean for the first time and should therefore result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea level change.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 14, 17–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-17-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-17-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The flow of ice shelves is now known to be strongly affected by ocean tides, but the mechanism by which this happens is unclear. We use a viscoelastic model to try to reproduce observations of this behaviour on the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica. We find that tilting of the ice shelf explains the short-period behaviour, while tidally induced movement of the grounding line (the boundary between grounded and floating ice) explains the more complex long-period response.
David A. Lilien, Ian Joughin, Benjamin Smith, and Noel Gourmelen
The Cryosphere, 13, 2817–2834, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2817-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2817-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used a number of computer simulations to understand the recent retreat of a rapidly changing group of glaciers in West Antarctica. We found that significant melt underneath the floating extensions of the glaciers, driven by relatively warm ocean water at depth, was likely needed to cause the large retreat that has been observed. If melt continues around current rates, retreat is likely to continue through the coming century and extend beyond the present-day drainage area of these glaciers.
Joe Todd, Poul Christoffersen, Thomas Zwinger, Peter Råback, and Douglas I. Benn
The Cryosphere, 13, 1681–1694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1681-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1681-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland Ice Sheet loses 30 %–60 % of its ice due to iceberg calving. Calving processes and their links to climate are not well understood or incorporated into numerical models of glaciers. Here we use a new 3-D calving model to investigate calving at Store Glacier, West Greenland, and test its sensitivity to increased submarine melting and reduced support from ice mélange (sea ice and icebergs). We find Store remains fairly stable despite these changes, but less so in the southern side.
Tyler Pelle, Mathieu Morlighem, and Johannes H. Bondzio
The Cryosphere, 13, 1043–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1043-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1043-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
How ocean-induced melt under floating ice shelves will change as ocean currents evolve remains a big uncertainty in projections of sea level rise. In this study, we combine two of the most recently developed melt models to form PICOP, which overcomes the limitations of past models and produces accurate ice shelf melt rates. We find that our model is easy to set up and computationally efficient, providing researchers an important tool to improve the accuracy of their future glacial projections.
Chad A. Greene, Duncan A. Young, David E. Gwyther, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Donald D. Blankenship
The Cryosphere, 12, 2869–2882, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2869-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2869-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We show that Totten Ice Shelf accelerates each spring in response to the breakup of seasonal landfast sea ice at the ice shelf calving front. The previously unreported seasonal flow variability may have aliased measurements in at least one previous study of Totten's response to ocean forcing on interannual timescales. The role of sea ice in buttressing the flow of the ice shelf implies that long-term changes in sea ice cover could have impacts on the mass balance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Surui Xie, Timothy H. Dixon, Denis Voytenko, Fanghui Deng, and David M. Holland
The Cryosphere, 12, 1387–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1387-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1387-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Time-varying velocity and topography of the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ were observed with a terrestrial radar interferometer in three summer campaigns (2012, 2015, 2016). Surface elevation and tidal responses of ice speed suggest a narrow floating zone in early summer, while in late summer the entire glacier is likely grounded. We hypothesize that Jakobshavn Isbræ advances a few km in winter to form a floating zone but loses this floating portion in the subsequent summer through calving.
Cited articles
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Hock, R., Khroulev, C., Mottram, R., and Khan, S. A.: Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium, Science Advances, 5, eaav9396, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396, 2019. a
Bartholomaus, T. C., Stearns, L. A., Sutherland, D. A., Shroyer, E. L., Nash, J. D., Walker, R. T., Catania, G., Felikson, D., Carroll, D., Fried, M. J., Noël, B. P. Y., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Contrasts in the response of adjacent fjords and glaciers to ice-sheet surface melt in West Greenland, Ann. Glaciol., 57, 25–38, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2016.19, 2016. a, b, c, d
Beaird, N., Straneo, F., and Jenkins, W.: Characteristics of meltwater export from Jakobshavn Isbræ and Ilulissat Icefjord, Ann. Glaciol., 58, 107–117, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2017.19, 2017. a, b
Black, T. E. and Joughin, I.: Multi-decadal retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers in northwest and central-west Greenland, The Cryosphere, 16, 807–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-807-2022, 2022. a
Burchard, H., Bolding, K., Feistel, R., Gräwe, U., Klingbeil, K., MacCready, P., Mohrholz, V., Umlauf, L., and van der Lee, E. M.: The Knudsen theorem and the Total Exchange Flow analysis framework applied to the Baltic Sea, Prog. Oceanogr., 165, 268–286, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2018.04.004, 2018. a
Burgard, C., Jourdain, N. C., Reese, R., Jenkins, A., and Mathiot, P.: An assessment of basal melt parameterisations for Antarctic ice shelves, The Cryosphere, 16, 4931–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, 2022. a
Carroll, D., Sutherland, D. A., Shroyer, E. L., Nash, J. D., Catania, G. A., and Stearns, L. A.: Modeling turbulent subglacial meltwater plumes: Implications for fjord-scale buoyancy-driven circulation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 45, 2169–2185, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-15-0033.1, 2015. a, b
Carroll, D., Sutherland, D. A., Hudson, B., Moon, T., Catania, G. A., Shroyer, E. L., Nash, J. D., Bartholomaus, T. C., Felikson, D., Stearns, L. A., Noël, B. P. Y., and van den Broeke, M. R.: The impact of glacier geometry on meltwater plume structure and submarine melt in Greenland fjords, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9739–9748, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070170, 2016. a, b
Carroll, D., Sutherland, D. A., Shroyer, E. L., Nash, J. D., Catania, G. A., and Stearns, L. A.: Subglacial discharge-driven renewal of tidewater glacier fjords, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 6611–6629, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012962, 2017. a, b
Choi, Y., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., and Wood, M.: Ice dynamics will remain a primary driver of Greenland ice sheet mass loss over the next century, Communications Earth & Environment, 2, 26, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00092-z, 2021. a
Cokelet, E. D. and Stewart, R. J.: The Exchange of Water in Fjords: The Effiux/Reflux Theory of Advective Reaches Separated by Mixing Zones, J. Geophys. Res., 90, 7287–7306, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC090iC04p07287, 1985. a, b, c, d
Cook, S. J., Christoffersen, P., Todd, J., Slater, D., and Chauché, N.: Coupled modelling of subglacial hydrology and calving-front melting at Store Glacier, West Greenland, The Cryosphere, 14, 905–924, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-905-2020, 2020. a
Cowton, T., Slater, D., Sole, A., Goldberg, D., and Nienow, P.: Modeling the impact of glacial runoff on fjord circulation and submarine melt rate using a new subgrid-scale parameterization for glacial plumes, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 120, 796–812, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010324, 2015. a
Cowton, T., Sole, A. J., Nienow, P. W., Slater, D., and Christoffersen, P.: Linear response of east Greenland's tidewater glaciers to ocean/atmosphere warming, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 7907–7912, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1801769115, 2018. a
Davison, B. J., Cowton, T. R., Cottier, F. R., and Sole, A. J.: Iceberg melting substantially modifies oceanic heat flux towards a major Greenlandic tidewater glacier, Nat. Commun., 11, 5983, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19805-7, 2020. a, b, c, d
Davison, B. J., Cowton, T., Sole, A., Cottier, F., and Nienow, P.: Modelling the effect of submarine iceberg melting on glacier-adjacent water properties, The Cryosphere, 16, 1181–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1181-2022, 2022. a, b
Ebbesmeyer, C. C. and Barnes, C. A.: Control of a fjord basin's dynamics by tidal mixing in embracing sill zones, Estuar. Coast. Mar. S., 11, 311–330, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0302-3524(80)80086-7, 1980. a
Echelmeyer, K. and Harrison, W. D.: Jakobshavns Isbræ, West Greenland: Seasonal variations in velocity-or lack thereof, J. Glaciol., 36, 82–88, 1990. a
Enderlin, E. M., Howat, I. M., Jeong, S., Noh, M.-J., Van Angelen, J. H., and Van Den Broeke, M. R.: An improved mass budget for the Greenland ice sheet, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 866–872, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059010, 2014. a, b, c
Enderlin, E. M., Hamilton, G. S., Straneo, F., and Sutherland, D. A.: Iceberg meltwater fluxes dominate the freshwater budget in Greenland's iceberg-congested glacial fjords, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 11,287–11,294, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070718, 2016. a, b, c
Fahrner, D., Lea, J. M., Brough, S., Mair, D. W., and Abermann, J.: Linear response of the Greenland ice sheet's tidewater glacier terminus positions to climate, J. Glaciol., 67, 193–203, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.13, 2021. a, b, c
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijffhour, S., Edwards, T., Golledge, N., Hemer, M., Kopp, R., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Slangen, A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere, and Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J., Maycock, T., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, pp. 1211–1362, 2021. a
Fried, M., Carroll, D., Catania, G., Sutherland, D., Stearns, L. A., Shroyer, E., and Nash, J.: Distinct frontal ablation processes drive heterogeneous submarine terminus morphology, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 12083–12091, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083980, 2019. a
Gade, H. G.: Melting of ice in sea water: A primitive model with application to the Antarctic ice shelf and icebergs, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 9, 189–198, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1979)009<0189:MOIISW>2.0.CO;2, 1979. a
Gladish, C. V., Holland, D. M., Rosing-Asvid, A., Behrens, J. W., and Boje, J.: Oceanic boundary conditions for Jakobshavn Glacier. Part I: Variability and renewal of Ilulissat Icefjord waters, 2001–14, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 45, 3–32, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-14-0044.1, 2015. a, b
Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Choi, Y., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Edwards, T., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G., Little, C., Lowry, D. P., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Quiquet, A., Rückamp, M., Schlegel, N.-J., Slater, D. A., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Tarasov, L., van de Wal, R., and van den Broeke, M.: The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6, The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Golaz, J.-C., Caldwell, P. M., Van Roekel, L. P., et al.: The DOE E3SM coupled model version 1: Overview and evaluation at standard resolution, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2089–2129, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001603, 2019. a
Goliber, S., Black, T., Catania, G., Lea, J. M., Olsen, H., Cheng, D., Bevan, S., Bjørk, A., Bunce, C., Brough, S., Carr, J. R., Cowton, T., Gardner, A., Fahrner, D., Hill, E., Joughin, I., Korsgaard, N. J., Luckman, A., Moon, T., Murray, T., Sole, A., Wood, M., and Zhang, E.: TermPicks: a century of Greenland glacier terminus data for use in scientific and machine learning applications, The Cryosphere, 16, 3215–3233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3215-2022, 2022. a
Hager, A.: “Local Forcing Mechanisms challenge parameterizations of ocean thermal forcing for Greenland tidewater glaciers” – Movie S1, Zenodo [video], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10035545, 2023. a, b, c, d
Hager, A. O., Sutherland, D. A., Amundson, J. M., Jackson, R. H., Kienholz, C., Motyka, R. J., and Nash, J. D.: Subglacial discharge reflux and buoyancy forcing drive seasonality in a silled glacial fjord, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 127, e2021JC018355, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC018355, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k
Hager, A. O., Sutherland, D. A., and Slater, D. A.: Local forcing mechanisms challenge parameterizations of ocean thermal forcing for Greenland tidewater glaciers. The Cryosphere, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7826386, 2023. a, b
Hasholt, B., Hansen, B. U., Humlum, O., and Mernild, S. H.: Meteorological stations at the Sermilik Station, Southeast Greenland: Physical environment and meteorological observations 2002, Geogr. Tidsskr., 104, 47–58, https://doi.org/10.1080/00167223.2004.10649518, 2004. a
Holland, D. M., Thomas, R. H., De Young, B., Ribergaard, M. H., and Lyberth, B.: Acceleration of Jakobshavn Isbræ triggered by warm subsurface ocean waters, Nat. Geosci., 1, 659–664, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo316, 2008. a, b
Howard, S. and Padman, L.: Gr1kmTM: Greeland 1 kilometer Tide Model, Arctic Data Center, https://doi.org/10.18739/A2251FM3S, 2021. a
IPCC: Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2023. a
Jackson, R. H. and Straneo, F.: Heat, salt, and freshwater budgets for a glacial fjord in Greenland, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 46, 2735–2768, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-15-0134.1, 2016. a
Jackson, R. H., Shroyer, E. L., Nash, J. D., Sutherland, D. A., Carroll, D., Fried, M. J., Catania, G. A., Bartholomaus, T. C., and Stearns, L. A.: Near-glacier surveying of a subglacial discharge plume: Implications for plume parameterizations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 6886–6894, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073602, 2017. a
Jackson, R. H., Nash, J. D., Kienholz, C., Sutherland, D. A., Amundson, J. M., Motyka, R. J., Winters, D., Skyllingstad, E., and Pettit, E. C.: Meltwater Intrusions Reveal Mechanisms for Rapid Submarine Melt at a Tidewater Glacier, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085335, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085335, 2020. a, b, c
Jakobsson, M., Mayer, L. A., Nilsson, J., Stranne, C., Calder, B., O'Regan, M., Farrell, J. W., Cronin, T. M., Brüchert, V., Chawarshi, J., Eriksson, B., Frederiksson, J., Gemery, L., Glueder, A., Holmes, F. A., Jerram, K., Kirchner, N., Mix, A., Muchowski, J., Prakash, A., Reilly, B., Thornton, B., Ulfsbo, A., Weidner, E., Åkesson, H., Handl, T., Ståhl, E., Boze, L., Reed, S., West, G., and Padman, J.: Ryder Glacier in northwest Greenland is shielded from warm Atlantic water by a bathymetric sill, Communications Earth & Environment, 1, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00043-0, 2020. a, b, c
Jenkins, A.: Convection-driven melting near the grounding lines of ice shelves and tidewater glaciers, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 41, 2279–2294, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-11-03.1, 2011. a, b, c
Jourdain, N. C., Asay-Davis, X., Hattermann, T., Straneo, F., Seroussi, H., Little, C. M., and Nowicki, S.: A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections, The Cryosphere, 14, 3111–3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020, 2020. a, b
Knudsen, M.: Ein hydrographischer lehrsatz, Annalen der Hydrographie und Maritimen Meteorologie, 28, 316–320, 1900. a
Large, W. G., McWilliams, J. C., and Doney, S. C.: Oceanic vertical mixing: A review and a model with a nonlocal boundary layer parameterization, Rev. Geophys., 32, 363–403, https://doi.org/10.1029/94RG01872, 1994. a
Lorenz, M., Klingbeil, K., MacCready, P., and Burchard, H.: Numerical issues of the Total Exchange Flow (TEF) analysis framework for quantifying estuarine circulation, Ocean Sci., 15, 601–614, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-601-2019, 2019. a, b
Luckman, A., Benn, D. I., Cottier, F., Bevan, S., Nilsen, F., and Inall, M.: Calving rates at tidewater glaciers vary strongly with ocean temperature, Nat. Commun., 6, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9566, 2015. a
Ma, Y. and Bassis, J. N.: The effect of submarine melting on calving from marine terminating glaciers, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 124, 334–346, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004820, 2019. a
MacCready, P.: Calculating estuarine exchange flow using isohaline coordinates, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 41, 1116–1124, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JPO4517.1, 2011. a, b
MacCready, P., Geyer, W. R., and Burchard, H.: Estuarine exchange flow is related to mixing through the salinity variance budget, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 48, 1375–1384, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-17-0266.1, 2018. a
MacCready, P., McCabe, R. M., Siedlecki, S. A., Lorenz, M., Giddings, S. N., Bos, J., Albertson, S., Banas, N. S., and Garnier, S.: Estuarine Circulation, Mixing, and Residence Times in the Salish Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 126, e2020JC016738, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016738, 2021. a, b, c, d, e
Magorrian, S. J. and Wells, A. J.: Turbulent plumes from a glacier terminus melting in a stratified ocean, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 4670–4696, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011160, 2016. a
Mankoff, K. D., Straneo, F., Cenedese, C., Das, S. B., Richards, C. G., and Singh, H.: Structure and dynamics of a subglacial discharge plume in a G reenlandic fjord, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 8670–8688, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC011764, 2016. a, b
Marshall, J., Adcroft, A., Hill, C., Perelman, L., and Heisey, C.: A finite-volume, incompressible Navier Stokes model for studies of the ocean on parallel computers, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 102, 5753–5766, https://doi.org/10.1029/96JC02775, 1997. a
McDougall, T. and Barker, P.: Getting started with TEOS-10 and the Gibbs Seawater (GSW) Oceanographic Toolbox, SCOR/IAPSO Working Group 127, http://www.teos-10.org/ (last access: 20 February 2024), 2011. a
Moffat, C., Tapia, F. J., Nittrouer, C. A., Hallet, B., Bown, F., Boldt Love, K., and Iturra, C.: Seasonal evolution of ocean heat supply and freshwater discharge from a rapidly retreating tidewater glacier: Jorge Montt, Patagonia, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 123, 4200–4223, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013069, 2018. a, b
Mojica, J. F., Djoumna, G., Holland, D. M., and Holland, D.: Interannual summer mixing processes in the Ilulissat Icefjord, Greenland, J. Marine Syst., 214, 103476, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2020.103476, 2021. a
Morlighem, M., Bondzio, J., Seroussi, H., Rignot, E., Larour, E., Humbert, A., and Rebuffi, S.: Modeling of Store Gletscher's calving dynamics, West Greenland, in response to ocean thermal forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2659–2666, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067695, 2016. a
Morlighem, M., Williams, C. N., Rignot, E., Arndt, J. E., Bamber, J. L., Catania, G., Chauché, N. Dowdeswell, J. A., Dorschel, B., Fenty, I., Hogan, K., Howat, I., Hubbard, A., Jakobsson, M., Jordan, T. M., Kjeldsen, K. K., Millan, R., Mayer, L., Mouginot, J., Noël B. P. Y., O'Cofaigh, C., Palmer, S., Rysgaard, S., Seroussi, H., Siegert, M. J., Slabon, P., Straneo, F., van den Broeke, M. R., Weinrebe, W., Wood, M., and Zinglersen, K. B.: BedMachine v3: Complete bed topography and ocean bathymetry mapping of Greenland from multibeam echo sounding combined with mass conservation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11–051, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074954, 2017. a
Morlighem, M., Wood, M., Seroussi, H., Choi, Y., and Rignot, E.: Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge, The Cryosphere, 13, 723–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d
Mortensen, J., Lennert, K., Bendtsen, J., and Rysgaard, S.: Heat sources for glacial melt in a sub-Arctic fjord (Godthåbsfjord) in contact with the Greenland Ice Sheet, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 116, C01013, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006528, 2011. a
Mortensen, J., Bendtsen, J., Motyka, R. J., Lennert, K., Truffer, M., Fahnestock, M., and Rysgaard, S.: On the seasonal freshwater stratification in the proximity of fast-flowing tidewater outlet glaciers in a sub-Arctic sill fjord, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 1382–1395, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20134, 2013. a, b
Mortensen, J., Bendtsen, J., Lennert, K., and Rysgaard, S.: Seasonal variability of the circulation system in a west Greenland tidewater outlet glacier fjord, Godthåbsfjord (64 N), J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 119, 2591–2603, 2014. a
Motyka, R. J., Truffer, M., Fahnestock, M., Mortensen, J., Rysgaard, S., and Howat, I.: Submarine melting of the 1985 Jakobshavn Isbræ floating tongue and the triggering of the current retreat, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 116, F01007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JF001632, 2011. a
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., Bjørk, A. A., Van den Broeke, M., Millan, R., Morlighem, M., Noël, B., Scheuchl, B., and Wood, M.: Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 9239–9244, 2019. a
Murray, T., Scharrer, K., James, T., Dye, S., Hanna, E., Booth, A., Selmes, N., Luckman, A., Hughes, A., Cook, S., and Huybrechts, P.: Ocean regulation hypothesis for glacier dynamics in southeast Greenland and implications for ice sheet mass changes, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 115, F03026, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JF001522, 2010. a, b
Nick, F. M., Vieli, A., Howat, I. M., and Joughin, I.: Large-scale changes in Greenland outlet glacier dynamics triggered at the terminus, Nat. Geosci., 2, 110–114, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO394, 2009. a
Nowicki, S., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Payne, A. J., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Kuipers Munneke, P., Larour, E., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M. R., and van de Wal, R.: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020. a
Nowicki, S. M. J., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Shepherd, A.: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4521–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, 2016. a
O'Leary, M. and Christoffersen, P.: Calving on tidewater glaciers amplified by submarine frontal melting, The Cryosphere, 7, 119–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-119-2013, 2013. a
Rignot, E., Xu, Y., Menemenlis, D., Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., Li, X., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., den Broeke, M. v., Fenty, I., Cai, C., and de Fleurian B.: Modeling of ocean-induced ice melt rates of five west Greenland glaciers over the past two decades, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 6374–6382, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068784, 2016. a, b
Schild, K. M., Sutherland, D. A., Elosegui, P., and Duncan, D.: Measurements of iceberg melt rates using high-resolution GPS and iceberg surface scans, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL089765, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089765, 2021. a
Sciascia, R., Straneo, F., Cenedese, C., and Heimbach, P.: Seasonal variability of submarine melt rate and circulation in an East Greenland fjord, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 2492–2506, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20142, 2013. a
Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. a, b
Slater, D., Nienow, P., Cowton, T., Goldberg, D., and Sole, A.: Effect of near-terminus subglacial hydrology on tidewater glacier submarine melt rates, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2861–2868, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062494, 2015. a
Slater, D., Straneo, F., Das, S., Richards, C., Wagner, T., and Nienow, P.: Localized plumes drive front-wide ocean melting of a Greenlandic tidewater glacier, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12–350, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080763, 2018. a
Slater, D. A., Straneo, F., Felikson, D., Little, C. M., Goelzer, H., Fettweis, X., and Holte, J.: Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting, The Cryosphere, 13, 2489–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d
Slater, D. A., Felikson, D., Straneo, F., Goelzer, H., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Fettweis, X., and Nowicki, S.: Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution , The Cryosphere, 14, 985–1008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Smagorinsky, J.: General Circulation experiments with the primitive equations: I. The basic experiment, Mon. Weather Rev., 91, 99–164, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1963)091<0099:GCEWTP>2.3.CO;2, 1963. a
Smith, B., Fricker, H. A., Gardner, A. S., Medley, B., Nilsson, J., Paolo, F. S., Holschuh, N., Adusumilli, S., Brunt, K., Csatho, B., Harbeck, K., Markus, T., Neumann, T., Siegfried, M. R., and Zwally, H. J.: Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes, Science, 368, 1239–1242, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz5845, 2020. a
Straneo, F. and Cenedese, C.: The dynamics of Greenland's glacial fjords and their role in climate, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 7, 89–112, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010213-135133, 2015. a, b, c
Straneo, F. and Heimbach, P.: North Atlantic warming and the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers, Nature, 504, 36–43, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12854, 2013. a, b
Straneo, F., Curry, R. G., Sutherland, D. A., Hamilton, G. S., Cenedese, C., Våge, K., and Stearns, L. A.: Impact of fjord dynamics and glacial runoff on the circulation near Helheim Glacier, Nat. Geosci., 4, 322–327, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1109, 2011. a
Straneo, F., Sutherland, D. A., Holland, D., Gladish, C., Hamilton, G. S., Johnson, H. L., Rignot, E., Xu, Y., and Koppes, M.: Characteristics of ocean waters reaching Greenland's glaciers, Ann. Glaciol., 53, 202–210, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012AoG60A059, 2012. a, b, c
Sulak, D. J., Sutherland, D. A., Enderlin, E. M., Stearns, L. A., and Hamilton, G. S.: Iceberg properties and distributions in three Greenlandic fjords using satellite imagery, Ann. Glaciol., 58, 92–106, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2017.5, 2017. a, b, c
Sutherland, D., Jackson, R. H., Kienholz, C., Amundson, J. M., Dryer, W., Duncan, D., Eidam, E., Motyka, R., and Nash, J.: Direct observations of submarine melt and subsurface geometry at a tidewater glacier, Science, 365, 369–374, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax3528, 2019. a
The IMBIE Team: Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018, Nature, 579, 233–239, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2, 2019. a
van den Broeke, M. R., Enderlin, E. M., Howat, I. M., Kuipers Munneke, P., Noël, B. P. Y., van de Berg, W. J., van Meijgaard, E., and Wouters, B.: On the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level change, The Cryosphere, 10, 1933–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, 2016. a
Watanabe, M., Suzuki, T., O'ishi, R., Komuro, Y., Watanabe, S., Emori, S., Takemura, T., Chikira, M., Ogura, T., Sekiguchi, M., Takata, K., Yamazaki, D., Yokohata, T., Nozawa, T., Hasumi, H., Tatebe, H., and Kimoto, M.: Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity, J. Climate, 23, 6312–6335, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3679.1, 2010. a
Willmott, C. J.: On the validation of models, Phys. Geogr., 2, 184–194, https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.1981.10642213, 1981. a
Wood, M., Rignot, E., Fenty, I., Menemenlis, D., Millan, R., Morlighem, M., Mouginot, J., and Seroussi, H.: Ocean-induced melt triggers glacier retreat in Northwest Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 8334–8342, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078024, 2018. a
Xu, Y., Rignot, E., Menemenlis, D., and Koppes, M.: Numerical experiments on subaqueous melting of Greenland tidewater glaciers in response to ocean warming and enhanced subglacial discharge, Ann. Glaciol., 53, 229–234, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012AoG60A139, 2012. a
Short summary
Warming ocean temperatures cause considerable ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet; however climate models are unable to resolve the complex ocean processes within fjords that influence near-glacier ocean temperatures. Here, we use a computer model to test the accuracy of assumptions that allow climate and ice sheet models to project near-glacier ocean temperatures, and thus glacier melt, into the future. We then develop new methods that improve accuracy by accounting for local ocean processes.
Warming ocean temperatures cause considerable ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet; however...
