Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5921-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5921-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Dec 2024
Research article |
| 17 Dec 2024
| 17 Dec 2024
Refining lake volume estimation and critical depth identification for enhanced glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event anticipation
Nazir Ahmed Bazai
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Chengdu, China
China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences and HEC, Islamabad, Pakistan
School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
Peng Cui
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences and HEC, Islamabad, Pakistan
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Wang Hao
China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences and HEC, Islamabad, Pakistan
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Zhang Guotao
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Liu Dingzhu
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Earth Surface Process Modelling, German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany
National Disaster Reduction Centre of China, Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, China
Javed Hassan
DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
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Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Mehtab Alam, Peng Cui, Wang Hao, Adil Poshad Khan, Muhammad Waseem, Yao Shunyu, Muhammad Ramzan, Li Wanhong, and Tashfain Ahmed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-95, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study examines the 2022 monsoon in the Swat River basin, Pakistan, where record rainfall exceeded averages by 7–8 %, causing catastrophic debris flows and floods. These events worsened challenges for low-income communities, resulting in extensive damage and financial instability. Field investigations, remote sensing, and simulations identified deforestation and steep topography as key factors. The study advocates for disaster mitigation, reforestation, and better land use planning.
Guotao Zhang, Peng Cui, Carlo Gualtieri, Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Xueqin Zhang, and Zhengtao Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3005–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3005-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3005-2023, 2023
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This study used identified stormflow thresholds as a diagnostic tool to characterize abrupt variations in catchment emergent patterns pre- and post-earthquake. Earthquake-induced landslides with spatial heterogeneity and temporally undulating recovery increase the hydrologic nonstationary; thus, large post-earthquake floods are more likely to occur. This study contributes to mitigation and adaptive strategies for unpredictable hydrologic regimes triggered by abrupt natural disturbances.
Shfaqat A. Khan, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, William Colgan, Veit Helm, Gong Cheng, Danjal Berg, Valentina R. Barletta, Nicolaj K. Larsen, William Kochtitzky, Michiel van den Broeke, Kurt H. Kjær, Andy Aschwanden, Brice Noël, Jason E. Box, Joseph A. MacGregor, Robert S. Fausto, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Ian M. Howat, Kuba Oniszk, Dominik Fahrner, Anja Løkkegaard, Eigil Y. H. Lippert, and Javed Hassan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-348, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing due to surface mass balance processes and ice dynamics, each exhibiting distinct spatiotemporal patterns. Here, we employ satellite and airborne altimetry data with fine spatial (1 km) and temporal (monthly) resolutions to document this spatiotemporal evolution from 2003 to 2023. This dataset of fine-resolution altimetry data in both space and time will support studies of ice mass loss and useful for GIS ice sheet modelling.
Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Mehtab Alam, Peng Cui, Wang Hao, Adil Poshad Khan, Muhammad Waseem, Yao Shunyu, Muhammad Ramzan, Li Wanhong, and Tashfain Ahmed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-95, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
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This study examines the 2022 monsoon in the Swat River basin, Pakistan, where record rainfall exceeded averages by 7–8 %, causing catastrophic debris flows and floods. These events worsened challenges for low-income communities, resulting in extensive damage and financial instability. Field investigations, remote sensing, and simulations identified deforestation and steep topography as key factors. The study advocates for disaster mitigation, reforestation, and better land use planning.
Paul A. Carling
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-381-2024, 2024
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Edge rounding in Shap granite glacial erratics is an irregular function of distance from the source outcrop in northern England, UK. Block shape is conservative, evolving according to block fracture mechanics – stochastic and silver ratio models – towards either of two attractor states. Progressive reduction in size occurs for blocks transported at the sole of the ice mass where the blocks are subject to compressive and tensile forces of the ice acting against a bedrock or till surface.
Paul A. Carling, John D. Jansen, Teng Su, Jane Lund Andersen, and Mads Faurschou Knudsen
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 817–833, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-817-2023, 2023
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Many steep glaciated rock walls collapsed when the Ice Age ended. How ice supports a steep rock wall until the ice decays is poorly understood. A collapsed rock wall was surveyed in the field and numerically modelled. Cosmogenic exposure dates show it collapsed and became ice-free ca. 18 ka ago. The model showed that the rock wall failed very slowly because ice was buttressing the slope. Dating other collapsed rock walls can improve understanding of how and when the last Ice Age ended.
Guotao Zhang, Peng Cui, Carlo Gualtieri, Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Xueqin Zhang, and Zhengtao Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3005–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3005-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3005-2023, 2023
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This study used identified stormflow thresholds as a diagnostic tool to characterize abrupt variations in catchment emergent patterns pre- and post-earthquake. Earthquake-induced landslides with spatial heterogeneity and temporally undulating recovery increase the hydrologic nonstationary; thus, large post-earthquake floods are more likely to occur. This study contributes to mitigation and adaptive strategies for unpredictable hydrologic regimes triggered by abrupt natural disturbances.
Andrea Gasparotto, Stephen E. Darby, Julian Leyland, and Paul A. Carling
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 343–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-343-2023, 2023
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In this study the processes leading to bank failures in the hypertidal Severn Estuary are studied employing numerical models and field observations. Results highlight that the periodic fluctuations in water levels drive an imbalance in the resisting (hydrostatic pressure) versus driving (pore water pressure) forces causing a frequent oscillation of bank stability between stable (at high tide) and unstable states (at low tide) both on semidiurnal bases and in the spring–neap transition.
Chengbin Zou, Paul Carling, Zetao Feng, Daniel Parsons, and Xuanmei Fan
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-119, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Climate change is causing mountain lakes behind glacier barriers to drain through ice tunnels as catastrophe floods, threatening people and infrastructure downstream. Understanding of how process works can mitigate the impacts by providing advanced warnings. A laboratory study of ice tunnel development improved understanding of how floods evolve. The principles of ice tunnel development were defined numerically and can be used to better model natural floods leading to improved prediction.
P. Cui, X. J. Guo, and J. Q. Zhuang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4659-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4659-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
C.-X. Guo, J.-W. Zhou, P. Cui, M.-H. Hao, and F.-G. Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4487-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4487-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
Related subject area
Discipline: Glaciers | Subject: Natural Hazards
Larger lake outbursts despite glacier thinning at ice-dammed Desolation Lake, Alaska
Brief communication: Rapid ∼ 335 × 106 m3 bed erosion after detachment of the Sedongpu Glacier (Tibet)
Lake volume and potential hazards of moraine-dammed glacial lakes – a case study of Bienong Co, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Brief communication: An approximately 50 Mm3 ice-rock avalanche on 22 March 2021 in the Sedongpu valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Controls of outbursts of moraine-dammed lakes in the greater Himalayan region
Sudden large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers – more frequent than thought?
Response of downstream lakes to Aru glacier collapses on the western Tibetan Plateau
Brief communication: Collapse of 4 Mm3 of ice from a cirque glacier in the Central Andes of Argentina
Mechanisms leading to the 2016 giant twin glacier collapses, Aru Range, Tibet
Natalie Lützow, Bretwood Higman, Martin Truffer, Bodo Bookhagen, Friedrich Knuth, Oliver Korup, Katie E. Hughes, Marten Geertsema, John J. Clague, and Georg Veh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2812, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2812, 2024
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As the atmosphere warms, thinning glacier dams impound smaller lakes at their margins. Yet, some lakes deviate from this trend and have instead grown over time, increasing the risk of glacier floods to downstream populations and infrastructure. In this article, we examine the mechanisms behind the growth of an ice-dammed lake in Alaska. We find that the growth in size and outburst volumes is more controlled by glacier front downwaste, than by overall mass loss over the entire glacier surface.
Andreas Kääb and Luc Girod
The Cryosphere, 17, 2533–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2533-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2533-2023, 2023
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Following the detachment of the 130 × 106 m3 Sedongpu Glacier (south-eastern Tibet) in 2018, the Sedongpu Valley underwent massive large-volume landscape changes. An enormous volume of in total around 330 × 106 m3 was rapidly eroded, forming a new canyon of up to 300 m depth, 1 km width, and almost 4 km length. Such consequences of glacier change in mountains have so far not been considered at this magnitude and speed.
Hongyu Duan, Xiaojun Yao, Yuan Zhang, Huian Jin, Qi Wang, Zhishui Du, Jiayu Hu, Bin Wang, and Qianxun Wang
The Cryosphere, 17, 591–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-591-2023, 2023
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We conducted a comprehensive investigation of Bienong Co, a moraine-dammed glacial lake on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP), to assess its potential hazards. The maximum lake depth is ~181 m, and the lake volume is ~102.3 × 106 m3. Bienong Co is the deepest known glacial lake with the same surface area on the Tibetan Plateau. Ice avalanches may produce glacial lake outburst floods that threaten the downstream area. This study could provide new insight into glacial lakes on the SETP.
Chuanxi Zhao, Wei Yang, Matthew Westoby, Baosheng An, Guangjian Wu, Weicai Wang, Zhongyan Wang, Yongjie Wang, and Stuart Dunning
The Cryosphere, 16, 1333–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1333-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1333-2022, 2022
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On 22 March 2021, a ~ 50 Mm 3 ice-rock avalanche occurred from 6500 m a.s.l. in the Sedongpu basin, southeastern Tibet. It caused temporary blockage of the Yarlung Tsangpo river, a major tributary of the Brahmaputra. We utilize field investigations, high-resolution satellite imagery, seismic records, and meteorological data to analyse the evolution of the 2021 event and its impact, discuss potential drivers, and briefly reflect on implications for the sustainable development of the region.
Melanie Fischer, Oliver Korup, Georg Veh, and Ariane Walz
The Cryosphere, 15, 4145–4163, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, 2021
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the greater Himalayan region threaten local communities and infrastructure. We assess this hazard objectively using fully data-driven models. We find that lake and catchment area, as well as regional glacier-mass balance, credibly raised the susceptibility of a glacial lake in our study area to produce a sudden outburst. However, our models hardly support the widely held notion that rapid lake growth increases GLOF susceptibility.
Andreas Kääb, Mylène Jacquemart, Adrien Gilbert, Silvan Leinss, Luc Girod, Christian Huggel, Daniel Falaschi, Felipe Ugalde, Dmitry Petrakov, Sergey Chernomorets, Mikhail Dokukin, Frank Paul, Simon Gascoin, Etienne Berthier, and Jeffrey S. Kargel
The Cryosphere, 15, 1751–1785, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, 2021
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Hardly recognized so far, giant catastrophic detachments of glaciers are a rare but great potential for loss of lives and massive damage in mountain regions. Several of the events compiled in our study involve volumes (up to 100 million m3 and more), avalanche speeds (up to 300 km/h), and reaches (tens of kilometres) that are hard to imagine. We show that current climate change is able to enhance associated hazards. For the first time, we elaborate a set of factors that could cause these events.
Yanbin Lei, Tandong Yao, Lide Tian, Yongwei Sheng, Lazhu, Jingjuan Liao, Huabiao Zhao, Wei Yang, Kun Yang, Etienne Berthier, Fanny Brun, Yang Gao, Meilin Zhu, and Guangjian Wu
The Cryosphere, 15, 199–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-199-2021, 2021
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Two glaciers in the Aru range, western Tibetan Plateau (TP), collapsed suddenly on 17 July and 21 September 2016, respectively, causing fatal damage to local people and their livestock. The impact of the glacier collapses on the two downstream lakes (i.e., Aru Co and Memar Co) is investigated in terms of lake morphology, water level and water temperature. Our results provide a baseline in understanding the future lake response to glacier melting on the TP under a warming climate.
Daniel Falaschi, Andreas Kääb, Frank Paul, Takeo Tadono, Juan Antonio Rivera, and Luis Eduardo Lenzano
The Cryosphere, 13, 997–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-997-2019, 2019
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In March 2007, the Leñas Glacier in the Central Andes of Argentina collapsed and released an ice avalanche that travelled a distance of 2 km. We analysed aerial photos, satellite images and field evidence to investigate the evolution of the glacier from the 1950s through the present day. A clear potential trigger of the collapse could not be identified from available meteorological and seismic data, nor could a significant change in glacier geometry leading to glacier instability be detected.
Adrien Gilbert, Silvan Leinss, Jeffrey Kargel, Andreas Kääb, Simon Gascoin, Gregory Leonard, Etienne Berthier, Alina Karki, and Tandong Yao
The Cryosphere, 12, 2883–2900, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2883-2018, 2018
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In Tibet, two glaciers suddenly collapsed in summer 2016 and produced two gigantic ice avalanches, killing nine people. This kind of phenomenon is extremely rare. By combining a detailed modelling study and high-resolution satellite observations, we show that the event was triggered by an increasing meltwater supply in the fine-grained material underneath the two glaciers. Contrary to what is often thought, this event is not linked to a change in the thermal condition at the glacier base.
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Short summary
We explored the growing threat of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) driven by glacier surges in the Karakoram. Using advanced remote sensing and field data, we identified key lake volumes and depths that indicate potential GLOFs. Our findings improve early warning systems by providing rapid methods to assess lake volumes in remote areas. This research seeks to protect vulnerable communities and contribute to global efforts in predicting and mitigating catastrophic flood risks.
We explored the growing threat of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) driven by glacier surges...
