Projection of snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level

Le Roux, Erwan; Evin, Guillaume; Samacoïts, Raphaëlle; Eckert, Nicolas; Blanchet, Juliette; Morin, Samuel

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023

Articles | Volume 17, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 11

Research article

|

08 Nov 2023

Research article |

| 08 Nov 2023

Projection of snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level

Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023-supplement

Data sets

The S2M meteorological and snow cover reanalysis in the French mountainous areas (1958 - present) M. Vernay, M. Lafaysse, P. Hagenmuller, R. Nheili, D. Verfaillie, and S. Morin https://doi.org/10.25326/37

Model code and software

erwanlrx/pynonstationarygev: v1.0.0 TC article (v1.0.0) Erwan Le Roux https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10066957

Short summary

We assess projected changes in snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level for a high-emission scenario. On average, heavy snowfall is projected to decrease below 3000 m and increase above 3600 m, while extreme snowfall is projected to decrease below 2400 m and increase above 3300 m. At elevations in between, an increase is projected until +3 °C of global warming and then a decrease. These results have implications for the management of risks.