Articles | Volume 17, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Sep 2023
Research article |
| 07 Sep 2023
| 07 Sep 2023
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry
Emily A. Hill
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Benoît Urruty
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Ronja Reese
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Julius Garbe
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Olivier Gagliardini
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Gaël Durand
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Fabien Gillet-Chaulet
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Ricarda Winkelmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Mondher Chekki
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
David Chandler
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Petra M. Langebroek
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
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22 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Antarctica in 2025: Drivers of deep uncertainty in projected ice loss H. Fricker et al. 10.1126/science.adt9619
- The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system F. McCormack et al. 10.1525/elementa.2024.00036
- Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector D. Bett et al. 10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024
- Ocean warming as a trigger for irreversible retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet E. Hill et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02134-8
- The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction E. Jager et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
- The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded R. Reese et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023
- Sustained ocean cooling insufficient to reverse sea level rise from Antarctica A. Alevropoulos-Borrill et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01297-8
- Mechanical Properties of Freshwater Ice I. Baker & A. Ogunmolasuyi 10.1021/acs.jpcc.4c05171
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
- Speed-up, slowdown, and redirection of ice flow on neighbouring ice streams in the Pope, Smith, and Kohler region of West Antarctica H. Selley et al. 10.5194/tc-19-1725-2025
- Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations A. Juarez-Martinez et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al. 10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
- Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets C. Stokes et al. 10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w
- Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y
- Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. 10.5194/tc-19-283-2025
- Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability J. Caillet et al. 10.5194/esd-16-293-2025
- Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024
- The influence of subglacial lake discharge on Thwaites Glacier ice-shelf melting and grounding-line retreat N. Gourmelen et al. 10.1038/s41467-025-57417-1
- Limited Impact of Thwaites Ice Shelf on Future Ice Loss From Antarctica G. Gudmundsson et al. 10.1029/2023GL102880
- Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise J. Sutter et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01738-w
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The physical science basis of climate change empowering transformations, insights from the IPCC AR6 for a climate research agenda grounded in ethics V. Masson-Delmotte & J. Males 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000451
- Sensitivity of the future evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to grounding-line melt parameterizations Y. Wang et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024
- Antarctica in 2025: Drivers of deep uncertainty in projected ice loss H. Fricker et al. 10.1126/science.adt9619
- The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system F. McCormack et al. 10.1525/elementa.2024.00036
- Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector D. Bett et al. 10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024
- Ocean warming as a trigger for irreversible retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet E. Hill et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02134-8
- The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction E. Jager et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
- The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded R. Reese et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023
- Sustained ocean cooling insufficient to reverse sea level rise from Antarctica A. Alevropoulos-Borrill et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01297-8
- Mechanical Properties of Freshwater Ice I. Baker & A. Ogunmolasuyi 10.1021/acs.jpcc.4c05171
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
- Speed-up, slowdown, and redirection of ice flow on neighbouring ice streams in the Pope, Smith, and Kohler region of West Antarctica H. Selley et al. 10.5194/tc-19-1725-2025
- Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations A. Juarez-Martinez et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al. 10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
- Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets C. Stokes et al. 10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w
- Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y
- Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. 10.5194/tc-19-283-2025
- Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability J. Caillet et al. 10.5194/esd-16-293-2025
- Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024
- The influence of subglacial lake discharge on Thwaites Glacier ice-shelf melting and grounding-line retreat N. Gourmelen et al. 10.1038/s41467-025-57417-1
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 22 May 2025
Short summary
The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or advance. We use three ice sheet models to show that the present-day locations of Antarctic grounding lines are reversible with respect to a small perturbation away from their current position. This indicates that present-day retreat of the grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-enhancing.
The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or...
