Articles | Volume 17, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Aug 2023
Research article |
| 24 Aug 2023
| 24 Aug 2023
Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Technical University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Moritz Langer
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Jan Nitzbon
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Paleoclimate Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Sebastian Westermann
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Guillermo Gallego
Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Technical University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Einstein Center Digital Future and Science of Intelligence Excellence Cluster, Berlin, Germany
Julia Boike
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
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Cited
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- How temperature seasonality drives interglacial permafrost dynamics: implications for paleo reconstructions and future thaw trajectories J. Nitzbon et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-377-2026
- Assessing uncertainties in modeling the climate of the Siberian frozen soils by contrasting CMIP6 and LS3MIP Z. Luo et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6547-2025
- Depth-specific distribution of bacterial MAGs in permafrost active layer in Ny Ålesund, Svalbard (79°N) K. Sipes et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.syapm.2024.126544
- Tree-ring δ18O reveals thaw-buffered warming in northernmost permafrost regions of China J. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2025.109791
- Water Potential in Frozen Soil L. Gou et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/JGGEFK.GTENG-15116
- DMFS: differentiable modeling for frozen soil thermodynamic characteristics Y. Ren et al. https://doi.org/10.1139/cgj-2025-0364
- Impact of snow and building management on ground surface temperatures in permafrost environments - A case study from the historical mining town Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard J. Aga et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104516
- Hybrid clustering and hierarchical reconstruction of near-surface air temperature boundary conditions for permafrost highways on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Z. Zuo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.105000
- δHT4P: A differentiable physical modeling framework for thermal evolution of permafrost L. Gou & W. Likos https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2026.108132
- Multicriteria performance assessment of the air-L-shaped two-phase closed thermosyphon-ground cooling system in permafrost regions: Environmental sustainability, techno-economic feasibility, and resilience Y. Dong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.147033
- A Monte-Carlo-Based Method for Probabilistic Permafrost Mapping Across Northeast China During 2003 to 2022 Y. Xiao et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi15010009
- Hydrology controls thermokarst and alters carbon cycling and methane emissions in peatlands near the southern limit of permafrost I. Shirley et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae0fad
- Beyond MAGT: learning more from permafrost thermal monitoring data with additional metrics N. Brown & S. Gruber https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1771-2026
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- How temperature seasonality drives interglacial permafrost dynamics: implications for paleo reconstructions and future thaw trajectories J. Nitzbon et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-377-2026
- Assessing uncertainties in modeling the climate of the Siberian frozen soils by contrasting CMIP6 and LS3MIP Z. Luo et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6547-2025
- Depth-specific distribution of bacterial MAGs in permafrost active layer in Ny Ålesund, Svalbard (79°N) K. Sipes et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.syapm.2024.126544
- Tree-ring δ18O reveals thaw-buffered warming in northernmost permafrost regions of China J. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2025.109791
- Water Potential in Frozen Soil L. Gou et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/JGGEFK.GTENG-15116
- DMFS: differentiable modeling for frozen soil thermodynamic characteristics Y. Ren et al. https://doi.org/10.1139/cgj-2025-0364
- Impact of snow and building management on ground surface temperatures in permafrost environments - A case study from the historical mining town Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard J. Aga et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104516
- Hybrid clustering and hierarchical reconstruction of near-surface air temperature boundary conditions for permafrost highways on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Z. Zuo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.105000
- δHT4P: A differentiable physical modeling framework for thermal evolution of permafrost L. Gou & W. Likos https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2026.108132
- Multicriteria performance assessment of the air-L-shaped two-phase closed thermosyphon-ground cooling system in permafrost regions: Environmental sustainability, techno-economic feasibility, and resilience Y. Dong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.147033
- A Monte-Carlo-Based Method for Probabilistic Permafrost Mapping Across Northeast China During 2003 to 2022 Y. Xiao et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi15010009
- Hydrology controls thermokarst and alters carbon cycling and methane emissions in peatlands near the southern limit of permafrost I. Shirley et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae0fad
- Beyond MAGT: learning more from permafrost thermal monitoring data with additional metrics N. Brown & S. Gruber https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1771-2026
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 01 Jun 2026
Short summary
It is now well known from long-term temperature measurements that Arctic permafrost, i.e., ground that remains continuously frozen for at least 2 years, is warming in response to climate change. Temperature, however, only tells half of the story. In this study, we use computer modeling to better understand how the thawing and freezing of water in the ground affects the way permafrost responds to climate change and what temperature trends can and cannot tell us about how permafrost is changing.
It is now well known from long-term temperature measurements that Arctic permafrost, i.e.,...
