Geothermal heat flux is the dominant source of uncertainty in englacial-temperature-based dating of ice rise formation

Montelli, Aleksandr; Kingslake, Jonathan

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-195-2023

Articles | Volume 17, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-195-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-195-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 1

Research article

|

16 Jan 2023

Research article |

| 16 Jan 2023

Geothermal heat flux is the dominant source of uncertainty in englacial-temperature-based dating of ice rise formation

Aleksandr Montelli and Jonathan Kingslake

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-195-2023-supplement

Data sets

Englacial borehole temperature model A. Montelli and J. Kingslake https://github.com/sashamontelli/borehole_temperature_models

sashamontelli/borehole_temperature_models: Englacial borehole temperature modelling (englacial_temperatures) A. Montelli https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7500835

Model code and software

sashamontelli/borehole_temperature_models: Englacial borehole temperature modelling (englacial_temperatures) A. Montelli https://github.com/sashamontelli/borehole_temperature_models

Short summary

Thermal modelling and Bayesian inversion techniques are used to evaluate the uncertainties inherent in inferences of ice-sheet evolution from borehole temperature measurements. We show that the same temperature profiles may result from a range of parameters, of which geothermal heat flux through underlying bedrock plays a key role. Careful model parameterisation and evaluation of heat flux are essential for inferring past ice-sheet evolution from englacial borehole thermometry.