Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Feb 2021
Research article |
| 08 Feb 2021
| 08 Feb 2021
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Marion Donat-Magnin
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Nicolas C. Jourdain
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Christoph Kittel
SPHERES research unit, Geography Department, University of Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium
Cécile Agosta
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Charles Amory
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
SPHERES research unit, Geography Department, University of Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium
Hubert Gallée
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Gerhard Krinner
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Mondher Chekki
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
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Cited
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Foehn winds at Pine Island Glacier and their role in ice changes D. Francis et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3041-2023
- Drivers and Reversibility of Abrupt Ocean State Transitions in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica J. Caillet et al. 10.1029/2022JC018929
- Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change S. Bevan et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.57
- Changes in Antarctic surface conditions and potential for ice shelf hydrofracturing from 1850 to 2200 N. Jourdain et al. 10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025
- Ice Shelf Basal Melt Rates in the Amundsen Sea at the End of the 21st Century N. Jourdain et al. 10.1029/2022GL100629
- Variable temperature thresholds of melt pond formation on Antarctic ice shelves J. van Wessem et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01577-1
- The morphological changes of basal channels based on multi-source remote sensing data at the Pine Island Ice Shelf X. Song et al. 10.1007/s13131-023-2241-3
- Deep Learning Regional Climate Model Emulators: A Comparison of Two Downscaling Training Frameworks M. van der Meer et al. 10.1029/2022MS003593
- Extreme precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers over West Antarctic ice shelves: insights from kilometre-scale regional climate modelling E. Gilbert et al. 10.5194/tc-19-597-2025
- Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica J. Wille et al. 10.1038/s43017-024-00638-7
- Revisiting temperature sensitivity: how does Antarctic precipitation change with temperature? L. Nicola et al. 10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023
- Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet C. Kittel et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021
- Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century K. Naughten et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x
- Meteoric water and glacial melt in the southeastern Amundsen Sea: a time series from 1994 to 2020 A. Hennig et al. 10.5194/tc-18-791-2024
- Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability J. Caillet et al. 10.5194/esd-16-293-2025
- Are vegetation influences on Arctic–boreal snow melt rates detectable across the Northern Hemisphere? H. Kropp et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8fa7
- Large interannual variability in supraglacial lakes around East Antarctica J. Arthur et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-29385-3
- Sensitivity of the MAR regional climate model snowpack to the parameterization of the assimilation of satellite-derived wet-snow masks on the Antarctic Peninsula T. Dethinne et al. 10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023
- Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves C. Kittel et al. 10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022
- Substantial contribution of slush to meltwater area across Antarctic ice shelves R. Dell et al. 10.1038/s41561-024-01466-6
- Remote Sensing of Surface Melt on Antarctica: Opportunities and Challenges S. Husman et al. 10.1109/JSTARS.2022.3216953
- Firn on ice sheets C. Amory et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00507-9
- Responses of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers to melt and sliding parameterizations I. Joughin et al. 10.5194/tc-18-2583-2024
- Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario P. Mathiot & N. Jourdain 10.5194/os-19-1595-2023
- Antarctic-wide ice-shelf firn emulation reveals robust future firn air depletion signal for the Antarctic Peninsula D. Dunmire et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01255-4
- Surface Melt and Runoff on Antarctic Ice Shelves at 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C of Future Warming E. Gilbert & C. Kittel 10.1029/2020GL091733
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Foehn winds at Pine Island Glacier and their role in ice changes D. Francis et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3041-2023
- Drivers and Reversibility of Abrupt Ocean State Transitions in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica J. Caillet et al. 10.1029/2022JC018929
- Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change S. Bevan et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.57
- Changes in Antarctic surface conditions and potential for ice shelf hydrofracturing from 1850 to 2200 N. Jourdain et al. 10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025
- Ice Shelf Basal Melt Rates in the Amundsen Sea at the End of the 21st Century N. Jourdain et al. 10.1029/2022GL100629
- Variable temperature thresholds of melt pond formation on Antarctic ice shelves J. van Wessem et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01577-1
- The morphological changes of basal channels based on multi-source remote sensing data at the Pine Island Ice Shelf X. Song et al. 10.1007/s13131-023-2241-3
- Deep Learning Regional Climate Model Emulators: A Comparison of Two Downscaling Training Frameworks M. van der Meer et al. 10.1029/2022MS003593
- Extreme precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers over West Antarctic ice shelves: insights from kilometre-scale regional climate modelling E. Gilbert et al. 10.5194/tc-19-597-2025
- Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica J. Wille et al. 10.1038/s43017-024-00638-7
- Revisiting temperature sensitivity: how does Antarctic precipitation change with temperature? L. Nicola et al. 10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023
- Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet C. Kittel et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021
- Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century K. Naughten et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x
- Meteoric water and glacial melt in the southeastern Amundsen Sea: a time series from 1994 to 2020 A. Hennig et al. 10.5194/tc-18-791-2024
- Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability J. Caillet et al. 10.5194/esd-16-293-2025
- Are vegetation influences on Arctic–boreal snow melt rates detectable across the Northern Hemisphere? H. Kropp et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8fa7
- Large interannual variability in supraglacial lakes around East Antarctica J. Arthur et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-29385-3
- Sensitivity of the MAR regional climate model snowpack to the parameterization of the assimilation of satellite-derived wet-snow masks on the Antarctic Peninsula T. Dethinne et al. 10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023
- Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves C. Kittel et al. 10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022
- Substantial contribution of slush to meltwater area across Antarctic ice shelves R. Dell et al. 10.1038/s41561-024-01466-6
- Remote Sensing of Surface Melt on Antarctica: Opportunities and Challenges S. Husman et al. 10.1109/JSTARS.2022.3216953
- Firn on ice sheets C. Amory et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00507-9
- Responses of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers to melt and sliding parameterizations I. Joughin et al. 10.5194/tc-18-2583-2024
- Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario P. Mathiot & N. Jourdain 10.5194/os-19-1595-2023
- Antarctic-wide ice-shelf firn emulation reveals robust future firn air depletion signal for the Antarctic Peninsula D. Dunmire et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01255-4
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 02 Jul 2025
Short summary
We simulate the West Antarctic climate in 2100 under increasing greenhouse gases. Future accumulation over the ice sheet increases, which reduces sea level changing rate. Surface ice-shelf melt rates increase until 2100. Some ice shelves experience a lot of liquid water at their surface, which indicates potential ice-shelf collapse. In contrast, no liquid water is found over other ice shelves due to huge amounts of snowfall that bury liquid water, favouring refreezing and ice-shelf stability.
We simulate the West Antarctic climate in 2100 under increasing greenhouse gases. Future...
