Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Jan 2021
Research article |
| 28 Jan 2021
| 28 Jan 2021
Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c
Martim Mas e Braga
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Geomorphology and Glaciology, Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Jorge Bernales
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Matthias Prange
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Arjen P. Stroeven
Geomorphology and Glaciology, Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Irina Rogozhina
Department of Geography, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
Related authors
Martim Mas e Braga, Richard Selwyn Jones, Jennifer C. H. Newall, Irina Rogozhina, Jane L. Andersen, Nathaniel A. Lifton, and Arjen P. Stroeven
The Cryosphere, 15, 4929–4947, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Mountains higher than the ice surface are sampled to know when the ice reached the sampled elevation, which can be used to guide numerical models. This is important to understand how much ice will be lost by ice sheets in the future. We use a simple model to understand how ice flow around mountains affects the ice surface topography and show how much this influences results from field samples. We also show that models need a finer resolution over mountainous areas to better match field samples.
Bradley W. Goodfellow, Arjen P. Stroeven, Nathaniel A. Lifton, Jakob Heyman, Alexander Lewerentz, Kristina Hippe, Jens-Ove Näslund, and Marc W. Caffee
Geochronology, 6, 291–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-291-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-291-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon-14 produced in quartz (half-life of 5700 ± 30 years) provides a new tool to date exposure of bedrock surfaces. Samples from 10 exposed bedrock surfaces in east-central Sweden give dates consistent with the timing of both landscape emergence above sea level through postglacial rebound and retreat of the last ice sheet shown in previous reconstructions. Carbon-14 in quartz can therefore be used for dating in landscapes where isotopes with longer half-lives give complex exposure results.
Brian R. Crow, Lev Tarasov, Michael Schulz, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 20, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An abnormally warm period around 400,000 years ago is thought to have resulted in a large melt event for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using a sequence of climate model simulations connected to an ice model, we estimate a 50 % melt of Greenland compared to today. Importantly, we explore how the exact methodology of connecting the temperatures and precipitation from the climate model to the ice sheet model can influence these results and show that common methods could introduce errors.
Bradley Goodfellow, Marc Caffee, Greg Chmiel, Ruben Fritzon, Alasdair Skelton, and Arjen Stroeven
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1585, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reconstructions of past earthquakes are useful for assessing earthquake hazard risks. We dated a limestone scarp that has been exposed by earthquakes along the Sparta fault, Greece. From this we identify a cluster of four earthquakes within a 1500 year period that culminated with the 464 B.C. event that devastated Spartan society. However, a large earthquake is not necessarily indicated as being overdue by the present ~2500 year period of inactivity on the Sparta fault.
Andrés Castillo-Llarena, Franco Retamal-Ramírez, Jorge Bernales, Martín Jacques-Coper, and Irina Rogozhina
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-47, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
During the culmination of the cold glacial period, the Patagonian Ice Sheet grew along the southern Andes. In doing so, it left marks on the landscape showing its former extents and timing. Here we use paleoclimate and ice sheet models to replicate the growth of the ice sheet to its reconstructed margins. We find that errors in the model-based ice sheet geometries are likely induced by imprecise reconstructions of air temperature due to poorly resolved Andean topography in global climate models.
Brian R. Crow, Matthias Prange, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 18, 775–792, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-775-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To better understand the climate conditions which lead to extensive melting of the Greenland ice sheet, we used climate models to reconstruct the climate conditions of the warmest period of the last 800 000 years, which was centered around 410 000 years ago. Surprisingly, we found that atmospheric circulation changes may have acted to reduce the melt of the ice sheet rather than enhance it, despite the extensive warmth of the time.
Yongmei Gong and Irina Rogozhina
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-500, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-500, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The results from our snow evolution modeling of glacierized drainage basins in western Norway forced by bias-corrected, IPCC class regional climate model experiment CORDEX outputs reveal that the applicability of such forcing to directly drive local scale projections is not satisfactory. It is necessary to correct the original CORDEX datasets for bias against reference data that represent the current climate conditions of a specific area of interest for future projections.
Martim Mas e Braga, Richard Selwyn Jones, Jennifer C. H. Newall, Irina Rogozhina, Jane L. Andersen, Nathaniel A. Lifton, and Arjen P. Stroeven
The Cryosphere, 15, 4929–4947, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Mountains higher than the ice surface are sampled to know when the ice reached the sampled elevation, which can be used to guide numerical models. This is important to understand how much ice will be lost by ice sheets in the future. We use a simple model to understand how ice flow around mountains affects the ice surface topography and show how much this influences results from field samples. We also show that models need a finer resolution over mountainous areas to better match field samples.
Pepijn Bakker, Irina Rogozhina, Ute Merkel, and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 16, 371–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-371-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Northeastern Siberia is currently known for its harsh cold climate, but remarkably it did not experience large-scale glaciation during the last ice age. We show that the region is also exceptional in climate models. As a result of subtle changes in model setup, climate models show a strong divergence in simulated glacial summer temperatures that is ultimately driven by changes in the circumpolar atmospheric stationary wave pattern and associated northward heat transport to northeastern Siberia.
Gerlinde Jung and Matthias Prange
Clim. Past, 16, 161–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-161-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-161-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
All major mountain ranges were uplifted during Earth's history. Previous work showed that African uplift might have influenced upper-ocean cooling in the Benguela region. But the surface ocean cooled also in other upwelling regions during the last 10 million years. We performed a set of model experiments altering topography in major mountain regions to explore the effects on atmosphere and ocean. The simulations show that mountain uplift is important for upper-ocean temperature evolution.
Axel Wagner, Gerrit Lohmann, and Matthias Prange
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-172, 2018
Publication in GMD not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates the dependence of simulated surface air temperatures on variations in grid resolution and resolution-dependent orography in simulations of the Mid-Holocene. A set of Mid-Holocene sensitivity experiments is carried out. The simulated Mid-Holocene temperature differences (low versus high resolution) reveal a response that regionally exceeds the Mid-Holocene to preindustrial modelled temperature anomalies, and show partly reversed signs across the same geographical regions.
Andrea Klus, Matthias Prange, Vidya Varma, Louis Bruno Tremblay, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 14, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous proxy records from the northern North Atlantic suggest substantial climate variability including the occurrence of multi-decadal-to-centennial cold events during the Holocene. We analyzed two abrupt cold events in a Holocene simulation using a comprehensive climate model. It is shown that the events were ultimately triggered by prolonged phases of positive North Atlantic Oscillation causing changes in ocean circulation followed by severe cooling, freshening, and expansion of sea ice.
Amanda Frigola, Matthias Prange, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1607–1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1607-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1607-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The application of climate models to study the Middle Miocene Climate Transition, characterized by major Antarctic ice-sheet expansion and global cooling at the interval 15–13 million years ago, is currently hampered by the lack of boundary conditions. To fill this gap, we compiled two internally consistent sets of boundary conditions, including global topography, bathymetry, vegetation and ice volume, for the periods before and after the transition.
Jorge Bernales, Irina Rogozhina, Ralf Greve, and Maik Thomas
The Cryosphere, 11, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-247-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-247-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study offers a hard test to the models commonly used to simulate an ice sheet evolution over multimillenial timescales. Using an example of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, we evaluate the performance of such models against observations and highlight a strong impact of different approaches towards modeling rapidly flowing ice sectors. In particular, our results show that inferences of previous studies may need significant adjustments to be adopted by a different type of ice sheet models.
Vidya Varma, Matthias Prange, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3859–3873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3859-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3859-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the results from simulations of the present and the last interglacial, with and without acceleration of the orbital forcing, using a comprehensive coupled climate model. In low latitudes, the simulation of long-term variations in interglacial surface climate is not significantly affected by the use of the acceleration technique and hence model–data comparison of surface variables is therefore not hampered but major repercussions of the orbital forcing are obvious below thermocline.
Rima Rachmayani, Matthias Prange, and Michael Schulz
Clim. Past, 12, 677–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-677-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-677-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A set of 13 interglacial time slice experiments was carried out using a CCSM3-DGVM to study global climate variability between and within the Quaternary interglaciations of MIS 1, 5, 11, 13, and 15. Seasonal surface temperature anomalies can be explained by local insolation anomalies induced by the astronomical forcing in most regions and by GHG forcing at high latitudes and early Bruhnes interglacials. However, climate feedbacks may modify the surface temperature response in specific regions.
Julien Seguinot, Irina Rogozhina, Arjen P. Stroeven, Martin Margold, and Johan Kleman
The Cryosphere, 10, 639–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-639-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-639-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical model based on approximated ice flow physics and calibrated against field-based evidence to present numerical simulations of multiple advance and retreat phases of the former Cordilleran ice sheet in North America during the last glacial cycle (120 000 to 0 years before present).
C. M. Chiessi, S. Mulitza, G. Mollenhauer, J. B. Silva, J. Groeneveld, and M. Prange
Clim. Past, 11, 915–929, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-915-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-915-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show that temperatures in the western South Atlantic increased markedly during the major slowdown event of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) of the last deglaciation. Over the adjacent continent, however, temperatures followed the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide, lagging changes in oceanic temperature. Our records corroborate the notion that the long duration of the major slowdown event of the AMOC was fundamental in driving the Earth out of the last glacial.
I. Bouimetarhan, L. Dupont, H. Kuhlmann, J. Pätzold, M. Prange, E. Schefuß, and K. Zonneveld
Clim. Past, 11, 751–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-751-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-751-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study has great paleoclimatic and paleoecological significance, as it deals with the poorly documented tropical SE African ecosystem during the last deglaciation. Changes in the Rufiji upland vegetation evidenced the response of the regional hydrologic system to high-latitude climatic fluctuations associated with ITCZ shifts, while changes in sensitive tropical salt marshes and mangrove communities in the Rufiji lowland evidenced the impact of sea level changes on the intertidal ecosystem.
B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an intercomparison project with six ice-sheet models. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of all models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line. Improved grounding-line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.
R. Rachmayani, M. Prange, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 11, 175–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-175-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-175-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The role of vegetation-precipitation feedbacks in modifying the North African rainfall response to enhanced early to mid-Holocene summer insolation is analysed using the climate-vegetation model CCSM3-DGVM. Dynamic vegetation amplifies the positive early to mid-Holocene summer precipitation anomaly by ca. 20% in the Sahara-Sahel region. The primary vegetation feedback operates through surface latent heat flux anomalies by canopy evapotranspiration and their effect on the African easterly jet.
B. W. Goodfellow, A. P. Stroeven, D. Fabel, O. Fredin, M.-H. Derron, R. Bintanja, and M. W. Caffee
Earth Surf. Dynam., 2, 383–401, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-383-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-383-2014, 2014
J. Seguinot, C. Khroulev, I. Rogozhina, A. P. Stroeven, and Q. Zhang
The Cryosphere, 8, 1087–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1087-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1087-2014, 2014
I. Rogozhina and D. Rau
The Cryosphere, 8, 575–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-575-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-575-2014, 2014
N. Merz, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, V. Varma, M. Prange, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 9, 2433–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, 2013
Y. Milker, R. Rachmayani, M. F. G. Weinkauf, M. Prange, M. Raitzsch, M. Schulz, and M. Kučera
Clim. Past, 9, 2231–2252, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2231-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2231-2013, 2013
D. Handiani, A. Paul, M. Prange, U. Merkel, L. Dupont, and X. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 1683–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1683-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1683-2013, 2013
M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Prange, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, D. M. Roche, J. Singarayer, D. Swingedouw, and X Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Antarctic
Weak relationship between remotely detected crevasses and inferred ice rheological parameters on Antarctic ice shelves
Extensive palaeo-surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet control modern and past ice flow
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 1: Event detection for cryoseismology
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 2: Unsupervised learning for source process characterization
Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica
Alpine topography of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, Antarctica, mapped from ice sheet surface morphology
Impact of boundary conditions on the modeled thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet
The staggered retreat of grounded ice in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)
The effect of landfast sea ice buttressing on ice dynamic speedup in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica
Widespread increase in discharge from West Antarctic Peninsula glaciers since 2018
Meteoric water and glacial melt in the southeastern Amundsen Sea: a time series from 1994 to 2020
Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics
Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Evaluation of four calving laws for Antarctic ice shelves
Englacial architecture of Lambert Glacier, East Antarctica
Mass changes of the northern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet derived from repeat bi-static synthetic aperture radar acquisitions for the period 2013–2017
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple
Characteristics and rarity of the strong 1940s westerly wind event over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica
The long–term sea–level commitment from Antarctica
Sensitivity of the MAR regional climate model snowpack to the parameterization of the assimilation of satellite-derived wet-snow masks on the Antarctic Peninsula
Stratigraphic noise and its potential drivers across the plateau of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica
Modes of Antarctic tidal grounding line migration revealed by Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) laser altimetry
Evaluating the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution over the Antarctic domain using a variable-resolution Earth system model
Statistically parameterizing and evaluating a positive degree-day model to estimate surface melt in Antarctica from 1979 to 2022
Widespread slowdown in thinning rates of West Antarctic ice shelves
Seasonal variability in Antarctic ice shelf velocities forced by sea surface height variations
Revisiting temperature sensitivity: how does Antarctic precipitation change with temperature?
Surface dynamics and history of the calving cycle of the Astrolabe glacier (Antarctica) derived from optical imagery
Precision measurement of the index of refraction of deep glacial ice at radio frequencies at Summit Station, Greenland
Cosmogenic-nuclide data from Antarctic nunataks can constrain past ice sheet instabilities
Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)
High mid-Holocene accumulation rates over West Antarctica inferred from a pervasive ice-penetrating radar reflector
Seasonal and interannual variability of the landfast ice mass balance between 2009 and 2018 in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica
Megadunes in Antarctica: migration and characterization from remote and in situ observations
Slowdown of Shirase Glacier, East Antarctica, caused by strengthening alongshore winds
Timescales of outlet-glacier flow with negligible basal friction: theory, observations and modeling
Antarctic contribution to future sea level from ice shelf basal melt as constrained by ice discharge observations
Anthropogenic and internal drivers of wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, during the 20th and 21st centuries
New 10Be exposure ages improve Holocene ice sheet thinning history near the grounding line of Pope Glacier, Antarctica
Antarctic surface climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model version 2 during the satellite era and into the future (1979–2100)
Inverting ice surface elevation and velocity for bed topography and slipperiness beneath Thwaites Glacier
Hysteretic evolution of ice rises and ice rumples in response to variations in sea level
Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets
Sensitivity of the Ross Ice Shelf to environmental and glaciological controls
High-resolution subglacial topography around Dome Fuji, Antarctica, based on ground-based radar surveys over 30 years
Cosmogenic nuclide dating of two stacked ice masses: Ong Valley, Antarctica
Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves
Rapid fragmentation of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf
Resolving glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to modern and future ice loss at marine grounding lines in West Antarctica
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2677–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent efforts have focused on using AI and satellite imagery to track crevasses for assessing ice shelf damage and informing ice flow models. Our study reveals a weak connection between these observed products and damage maps inferred from ice flow models. While there is some improvement in crevasse-dense regions, this association remains limited. Directly mapping ice damage from satellite observations may not significantly improve the representation of these processes within ice flow models.
Charlotte M. Carter, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Guy J. G. Paxman, Tom A. Jordan, Julien A. Bodart, Neil Ross, and Felipe Napoleoni
The Cryosphere, 18, 2277–2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use radio-echo sounding data to investigate the presence of flat surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region in West Antarctica. These surfaces may be what remains of laterally continuous surfaces, formed before the inception of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we assess two hypotheses for their formation. Tectonic structures in the region may have also had a control on the growth of the ice sheet by focusing ice flow into troughs adjoining these surfaces.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2061–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study of icequakes allows for investigation of many glacier processes that are unseen by typical reconnaissance methods. However, detection of such seismic signals is challenging due to low signal-to-noise levels and diverse source mechanisms. Here we present a novel algorithm that is optimized to detect signals from a glacier environment. We apply the algorithm to seismic data recorded in the 2010–2011 austral summer from the Whillans Ice Stream and evaluate the resulting event catalogue.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, Sue Cook, Bernd Kulessa, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2081–2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic catalogues are potentially rich sources of information on glacier processes. In a companion study, we constructed an event catalogue for seismic data from the Whillans Ice Stream. Here, we provide a semi-automated workflow for consistent catalogue analysis using an unsupervised cluster analysis. We discuss the defining characteristics of identified signal types found in this catalogue and possible mechanisms for the underlying glacier processes and noise sources.
Jan De Rydt and Kaitlin Naughten
The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice at an accelerating pace. This is largely due to the presence of warm ocean water around the periphery of the Antarctic continent, which melts the ice. It is generally assumed that the strength of this process is controlled by the temperature of the ocean. However, in this study we show that an equally important role is played by the changing geometry of the ice sheet, which affects the strength of the ocean currents and thereby the melt rates.
Edmund J. Lea, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1733–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use the ice surface expression of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in East Antarctica to map the horizontal pattern of valleys and ridges in finer detail than possible from previous methods. In upland areas, valleys are spaced much less than 5 km apart, with consequences for the distribution of melting at the bed and hence the likelihood of ancient ice being preserved. Automated mapping techniques were tested alongside manual approaches, with a hybrid approach recommended for future work.
In-Woo Park, Emilia Kyung Jin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kang-Kun Lee
The Cryosphere, 18, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study conducted 3D thermodynamic ice sheet model experiments, and modeled temperatures were compared with 15 observed borehole temperature profiles. We found that using incompressibility of ice without sliding agrees well with observed temperature profiles in slow-flow regions, while incorporating sliding in fast-flow regions captures observed temperature profiles. Also, the choice of vertical velocity scheme has a greater impact on the shape of the modeled temperature profile.
Matthew A. Danielson and Philip J. Bart
The Cryosphere, 18, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Ross Sea was more significant than for any other Antarctic sector. Here we combined the available dates of retreat with new mapping of sediment deposited by the ice sheet during overall retreat. Our work shows that the post-LGM retreat through the Ross Sea was not uniform. This uneven retreat can cause instability in the present-day Antarctic ice sheet configuration and lead to future runaway retreat.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Anna E. Hogg, Stephen L. Cornford, Benjamin J. Wallis, Benjamin J. Davison, Heather L. Selley, Ross A. W. Slater, Elise K. Lie, Livia Jakob, Andrew Ridout, Noel Gourmelen, Bryony I. D. Freer, Sally F. Wilson, and Andrew Shepherd
The Cryosphere, 18, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we use satellite observations and an ice flow model to quantify the impact of sea ice buttressing on ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula. The evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022 was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and acceleration (30 %) of the ocean-terminating glaciers. Our results show that sea ice buttressing had a negligible direct role in the observed dynamic changes.
Benjamin J. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Carlos Moffat, Michael P. Meredith, and Benjamin J. Wallis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-232, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new dataset of ice motion, we observed glacier acceleration on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. The speed-up began around January 2021 but some glaciers sped-up earlier or later. All of those glaciers flow into the ocean where they melt – ship-based observations show that ocean temperatures near the glaciers have been unusually warm since 2018, likely causing them to melt faster and speed-up. As the ocean warms more in future, these glaciers may accelerate again.
Andrew N. Hennig, David A. Mucciarone, Stanley S. Jacobs, Richard A. Mortlock, and Robert B. Dunbar
The Cryosphere, 18, 791–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A total of 937 seawater paired oxygen isotope (δ18O)–salinity samples collected during seven cruises on the SE Amundsen Sea between 1994 and 2020 reveal a deep freshwater source with δ18O − 29.4±1.0‰, consistent with the signature of local ice shelf melt. Local mean meteoric water content – comprised primarily of glacial meltwater – increased between 1994 and 2020 but exhibited greater interannual variability than increasing trend.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Joel A. Wilner, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gong Cheng
The Cryosphere, 17, 4889–4901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use numerical modeling to study iceberg calving off of ice shelves in Antarctica. We examine four widely used mathematical descriptions of calving (
calving laws), under the assumption that Antarctic ice shelf front positions should be in steady state under the current climate forcing. We quantify how well each of these calving laws replicates the observed front positions. Our results suggest that the eigencalving and von Mises laws are most suitable for Antarctic ice shelves.
Rebecca J. Sanderson, Kate Winter, S. Louise Callard, Felipe Napoleoni, Neil Ross, Tom A. Jordan, and Robert G. Bingham
The Cryosphere, 17, 4853–4871, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-penetrating radar allows us to explore the internal structure of glaciers and ice sheets to constrain past and present ice-flow conditions. In this paper, we examine englacial layers within the Lambert Glacier in East Antarctica using a quantitative layer tracing tool. Analysis reveals that the ice flow here has been relatively stable, but evidence for former fast flow along a tributary suggests that changes have occurred in the past and could change again in the future.
Thorsten Seehaus, Christian Sommer, Thomas Dethinne, and Philipp Malz
The Cryosphere, 17, 4629–4644, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Existing mass budget estimates for the northern Antarctic Peninsula (>70° S) are affected by considerable limitations. We carried out the first region-wide analysis of geodetic mass balances throughout this region (coverage of 96.4 %) for the period 2013–2017 based on repeat pass bi-static TanDEM-X acquisitions. A total mass budget of −24.1±2.8 Gt/a is revealed. Imbalanced high ice discharge, particularly at former ice shelf tributaries, is the main driver of overall ice loss.
Julius Garbe, Maria Zeitz, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt the novel surface module dEBM-simple in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to investigate the impact of atmospheric warming on Antarctic surface melt and long-term ice sheet dynamics. As an enhancement compared to traditional temperature-based melt schemes, the module accounts for changes in ice surface albedo and thus the melt–albedo feedback. Our results underscore the critical role of ice–atmosphere feedbacks in the future sea-level contribution of Antarctica on long timescales.
Gemma K. O'Connor, Paul R. Holland, Eric J. Steig, Pierre Dutrieux, and Gregory J. Hakim
The Cryosphere, 17, 4399–4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in West Antarctica are rapidly melting, but the causes are unknown due to limited observations. A leading hypothesis is that an unusually large wind event in the 1940s initiated the ocean-driven melting. Using proxy reconstructions (e.g., using ice cores) and climate model simulations, we find that wind events similar to the 1940s event are relatively common on millennial timescales, implying that ocean variability or climate trends are also necessary to explain the start of ice loss.
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-156, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
Short summary
Short summary
We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries with two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses a considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
Thomas Dethinne, Quentin Glaude, Ghislain Picard, Christoph Kittel, Patrick Alexander, Anne Orban, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4267–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional(MAR) to the assimilation of wet-snow occurrence estimated by remote sensing datasets. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature. The data assimilation is performed over the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in the melt production (+66.7 %) and a decrease in surface mass balance (−4.5 %) of the model for the 2019–2020 melt season.
Nora Hirsch, Alexandra Zuhr, Thomas Münch, Maria Hörhold, Johannes Freitag, Remi Dallmayr, and Thomas Laepple
The Cryosphere, 17, 4207–4221, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes from firn cores provide valuable information on past climates, yet their utility is hampered by stratigraphic noise, i.e. the irregular deposition and wind-driven redistribution of snow. We found stratigraphic noise on the Antarctic Plateau to be related to the local accumulation rate, snow surface roughness and slope inclination, which can guide future decisions on sampling locations and thus increase the resolution of climate reconstructions from low-accumulation areas.
Bryony I. D. Freer, Oliver J. Marsh, Anna E. Hogg, Helen Amanda Fricker, and Laurie Padman
The Cryosphere, 17, 4079–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a method using ICESat-2 data to measure how Antarctic grounding lines (GLs) migrate across the tide cycle. At an ice plain on the Ronne Ice Shelf we observe 15 km of tidal GL migration, the largest reported distance in Antarctica, dominating any signal of long-term migration. We identify four distinct migration modes, which provide both observational support for models of tidal ice flexure and GL migration and insights into ice shelf–ocean–subglacial interactions in grounding zones.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Adam Herrington, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, David P. Schneider, Luke Trusel, Ziqi Yin, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 17, 3847–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation over Antarctica is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in sea level rise estimates. Earth system models (ESMs) are a valuable tool for these estimates but typically run at coarse spatial resolutions. Here, we present an evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM2 (VR-CESM2) for the first time with a grid designed for enhanced spatial resolution over Antarctica to achieve the high resolution of regional climate models while preserving the two-way interactions of ESMs.
Yaowen Zheng, Nicholas R. Golledge, Alexandra Gossart, Ghislain Picard, and Marion Leduc-Leballeur
The Cryosphere, 17, 3667–3694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Positive degree-day (PDD) schemes are widely used in many Antarctic numerical ice sheet models. However, the PDD approach has not been systematically explored for its application in Antarctica. We have constructed a novel grid-cell-level spatially distributed PDD (dist-PDD) model and assessed its accuracy. We suggest that an appropriately parameterized dist-PDD model can be a valuable tool for exploring Antarctic surface melt beyond the satellite era.
Fernando S. Paolo, Alex S. Gardner, Chad A. Greene, Johan Nilsson, Michael P. Schodlok, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 3409–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report on a slowdown in the rate of thinning and melting of West Antarctic ice shelves. We present a comprehensive assessment of the Antarctic ice shelves, where we analyze at a continental scale the changes in thickness, flow, and basal melt over the past 26 years. We also present a novel method to estimate ice shelf change from satellite altimetry and a time-dependent data set of ice shelf thickness and basal melt rates at an unprecedented resolution.
Cyrille Mosbeux, Laurie Padman, Emilie Klein, Peter D. Bromirski, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 2585–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica's ice shelves (the floating extension of the ice sheet) help regulate ice flow. As ice shelves thin or lose contact with the bedrock, the upstream ice tends to accelerate, resulting in increased mass loss. Here, we use an ice sheet model to simulate the effect of seasonal sea surface height variations and see if we can reproduce observed seasonal variability of ice velocity on the ice shelf. When correctly parameterised, the model fits the observations well.
Lena Nicola, Dirk Notz, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2563–2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For future sea-level projections, approximating Antarctic precipitation increases through temperature-scaling approaches will remain important, as coupled ice-sheet simulations with regional climate models remain computationally expensive, especially on multi-centennial timescales. We here revisit the relationship between Antarctic temperature and precipitation using different scaling approaches, identifying and explaining regional differences.
Floriane Provost, Dimitri Zigone, Emmanuel Le Meur, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Clément Hibert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-736, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The recent calving of the Astrolabe glacier in November 2021 presents an opportunity to better understand the processes leading to ice fracturing. Optical satellite imagery is used to retrieve the calving cycle of the glacier ice tongue and to measure the ice velocity and strain rates in order to document fracture evolution. We observed that the presence of sea ice for consecutive years has favored the glacier extension but failed to inhibit the growth of fractures that accelerated in June 2021.
Christoph Welling and the RNO-G Collaboration
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-745, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report in the measurement of the index of refraction in glacial ice at radio frequencies. We show that radio echos from within the ice can be associated with specific features of the ice conductivity, and use this to determine the wave velocity. This measurement is especially relevant for the Radio Neutrino Observatory Greenland (RNO-G), a neutrino detection experiment currently under construction at Summit Station, Greenland.
Anna Ruth W. Halberstadt, Greg Balco, Hannah Buchband, and Perry Spector
The Cryosphere, 17, 1623–1643, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the use of multimillion-year exposure ages from Antarctic bedrock outcrops to benchmark ice sheet model predictions and thereby infer ice sheet sensitivity to warm climates. We describe a new approach for model–data comparison, highlight an example where observational data are used to distinguish end-member models, and provide guidance for targeted sampling around Antarctica that can improve understanding of ice sheet response to climate warming in the past and future.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nathan M. Urban, and Matthew J. Hoffman
The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to future sea level from the Antarctic Ice Sheet remain poorly constrained. One reason is that ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. We investigate the impacts of two key parameters used during model initialization. We find that these parameter choices alone can impact multi-century sea level rise by up to 2 m, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these choices for sea level rise predictions.
Julien A. Bodart, Robert G. Bingham, Duncan A. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, David W. Ashmore, Enrica Quartini, Andrew S. Hein, David G. Vaughan, and Donald D. Blankenship
The Cryosphere, 17, 1497–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1497-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1497-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating how West Antarctica will change in response to future climatic change depends on our understanding of past ice processes. Here, we use a reflector widely visible on airborne radar data across West Antarctica to estimate accumulation rates over the past 4700 years. By comparing our estimates with current atmospheric data, we find that accumulation rates were 18 % greater than modern rates. This has implications for our understanding of past ice processes in the region.
Na Li, Ruibo Lei, Petra Heil, Bin Cheng, Minghu Ding, Zhongxiang Tian, and Bingrui Li
The Cryosphere, 17, 917–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-917-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-917-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The observed annual maximum landfast ice (LFI) thickness off Zhongshan (Davis) was 1.59±0.17 m (1.64±0.08 m). Larger interannual and local spatial variabilities for the seasonality of LFI were identified at Zhongshan, with the dominant influencing factors of air temperature anomaly, snow atop, local topography and wind regime, and oceanic heat flux. The variability of LFI properties across the study domain prevailed at interannual timescales, over any trend during the recent decades.
Giacomo Traversa, Davide Fugazza, and Massimo Frezzotti
The Cryosphere, 17, 427–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Megadunes are fields of huge snow dunes present in Antarctica and on other planets, important as they present mass loss on the leeward side (glazed snow), on a continent characterized by mass gain. Here, we studied megadunes using remote data and measurements acquired during past field expeditions. We quantified their physical properties and migration and demonstrated that they migrate against slope and wind. We further proposed automatic detections of the glazed snow on their leeward side.
Bertie W. J. Miles, Chris R. Stokes, Adrian Jenkins, Jim R. Jordan, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 445–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations have shown that the Shirase Glacier catchment in East Antarctica has been gaining mass over the past 2 decades, a trend largely attributed to increased snowfall. Our multi-decadal observations of Shirase Glacier show that ocean forcing has also contributed to some of this recent mass gain. This has been caused by strengthening easterly winds reducing the inflow of warm water underneath the Shirase ice tongue, causing the glacier to slow down and thicken.
Johannes Feldmann and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 327–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-327-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-327-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a scaling relation that allows the comparison of the timescales of glaciers with geometric similarity. According to the relation, thicker and wider glaciers on a steeper bed slope have a much faster timescale than shallower, narrower glaciers on a flatter bed slope. The relation is supported by observations and simplified numerical simulations. We combine the scaling relation with a statistical analysis of the topography of 13 instability-prone Antarctic outlet glaciers.
Eveline C. van der Linden, Dewi Le Bars, Erwin Lambert, and Sybren Drijfhout
The Cryosphere, 17, 79–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is the largest uncertainty in future sea level estimates. The AIS mainly loses mass through ice discharge, the transfer of land ice into the ocean. Ice discharge is triggered by warming ocean water (basal melt). New future estimates of AIS sea level contributions are presented in which basal melt is constrained with ice discharge observations. Despite the different methodology, the resulting projections are in line with previous multimodel assessments.
Paul R. Holland, Gemma K. O'Connor, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Pierre Dutrieux, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Eric J. Steig, David P. Schneider, Adrian Jenkins, and James A. Smith
The Cryosphere, 16, 5085–5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice, causing sea-level rise. However, it is not known whether human-induced climate change has contributed to this ice loss. In this study, we use evidence from climate models and palaeoclimate measurements (e.g. ice cores) to suggest that the ice loss was triggered by natural climate variations but is now sustained by human-forced climate change. This implies that future greenhouse-gas emissions may influence sea-level rise from Antarctica.
Jonathan R. Adams, Joanne S. Johnson, Stephen J. Roberts, Philippa J. Mason, Keir A. Nichols, Ryan A. Venturelli, Klaus Wilcken, Greg Balco, Brent Goehring, Brenda Hall, John Woodward, and Dylan H. Rood
The Cryosphere, 16, 4887–4905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4887-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4887-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in West Antarctica are experiencing significant ice loss. Geological data provide historical context for ongoing ice loss in West Antarctica, including constraints on likely future ice sheet behaviour in response to climatic warming. We present evidence from rare isotopes measured in rocks collected from an outcrop next to Pope Glacier. These data suggest that Pope Glacier thinned faster and sooner after the last ice age than previously thought.
Devon Dunmire, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Tessa Gorte
The Cryosphere, 16, 4163–4184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) are used to model the climate system and the interactions of its components (atmosphere, ocean, etc.) both historically and into the future under different assumptions of human activity. The representation of Antarctica in ESMs is important because it can inform projections of the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise. Here, we compare output of Antarctica's surface climate from an ESM with observations to understand strengths and weaknesses within the model.
Helen Ockenden, Robert G. Bingham, Andrew Curtis, and Daniel Goldberg
The Cryosphere, 16, 3867–3887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3867-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hills and valleys hidden under the ice of Thwaites Glacier have an impact on ice flow and future ice loss, but there are not many three-dimensional observations of their location or size. We apply a mathematical theory to new high-resolution observations of the ice surface to predict the bed topography beneath the ice. There is a good correlation with ice-penetrating radar observations. The method may be useful in areas with few direct observations or as a further constraint for other methods.
A. Clara J. Henry, Reinhard Drews, Clemens Schannwell, and Vjeran Višnjević
The Cryosphere, 16, 3889–3905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3889-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3889-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used a 3D, idealised model to study features in coastal Antarctica called ice rises and ice rumples. These features regulate the rate of ice flow into the ocean. We show that when sea level is raised or lowered, the size of these features and the ice flow pattern can change. We find that the features depend on the ice history and do not necessarily fully recover after an equal increase and decrease in sea level. This shows that it is important to initialise models with accurate ice geometry.
Jeremy Carter, Amber Leeson, Andrew Orr, Christoph Kittel, and J. Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 16, 3815–3841, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models provide valuable information for studying processes such as the collapse of ice shelves over Antarctica which impact estimates of sea level rise. This paper examines variability across climate simulations over Antarctica for fields including snowfall, temperature and melt. Significant systematic differences between outputs are found, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results are important for future impact assessments and model development.
Francesca Baldacchino, Mathieu Morlighem, Nicholas R. Golledge, Huw Horgan, and Alena Malyarenko
The Cryosphere, 16, 3723–3738, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf will evolve in a warming world is important to the future stability of Antarctica. It remains unclear what changes could drive the largest mass loss in the future and where places are most likely to trigger larger mass losses. Sensitivity maps are modelled showing that the RIS is sensitive to changes in environmental and glaciological controls at regions which are currently experiencing changes. These regions need to be monitored in a warming world.
Shun Tsutaki, Shuji Fujita, Kenji Kawamura, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Kotaro Fukui, Hideaki Motoyama, Yu Hoshina, Fumio Nakazawa, Takashi Obase, Hiroshi Ohno, Ikumi Oyabu, Fuyuki Saito, Konosuke Sugiura, and Toshitaka Suzuki
The Cryosphere, 16, 2967–2983, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2967-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We constructed an ice thickness map across the Dome Fuji region, East Antarctica, from improved radar data and previous data that had been collected since the late 1980s. The data acquired using the improved radar systems allowed basal topography to be identified with higher accuracy. The new ice thickness data show the bedrock topography, particularly the complex terrain of subglacial valleys and highlands south of Dome Fuji, with substantially high detail.
Marie Bergelin, Jaakko Putkonen, Greg Balco, Daniel Morgan, Lee B. Corbett, and Paul R. Bierman
The Cryosphere, 16, 2793–2817, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2793-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier ice contains information on past climate and can help us understand how the world changes through time. We have found and sampled a buried ice mass in Antarctica that is much older than most ice on Earth and difficult to date. Therefore, we developed a new dating application which showed the ice to be 3 million years old. Our new dating solution will potentially help to date other ancient ice masses since such old glacial ice could yield data on past environmental conditions on Earth.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Douglas I. Benn, Adrian Luckman, Jan A. Åström, Anna J. Crawford, Stephen L. Cornford, Suzanne L. Bevan, Thomas Zwinger, Rupert Gladstone, Karen Alley, Erin Pettit, and Jeremy Bassis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2545–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Thwaites Glacier (TG), in West Antarctica, is potentially unstable and may contribute significantly to sea-level rise as global warming continues. Using satellite data, we show that Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, the largest remaining floating extension of TG, has started to accelerate as it fragments along a shear zone. Computer modelling does not indicate that fragmentation will lead to imminent glacier collapse, but it is clear that major, rapid, and unpredictable changes are underway.
Jeannette Xiu Wen Wan, Natalya Gomez, Konstantin Latychev, and Holly Kyeore Han
The Cryosphere, 16, 2203–2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2203-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2203-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the grid resolution necessary to accurately model the Earth deformation and sea-level change associated with West Antarctic ice mass changes. We find that results converge at higher resolutions, and errors of less than 5 % can be achieved with a 7.5 km grid. Our results also indicate that error due to grid resolution is negligible compared to the effect of neglecting viscous deformation in low-viscosity regions.
Cited articles
Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R., and Levermann, A.: Glacial-cycle simulations of
the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) – Part 1:
Boundary conditions and climatic forcing, The Cryosphere, 14, 599–632,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Barletta, V. R., Bevis, M., Smith, B. E., Wilson, T., Brown, A., Bordoni, A.,
Willis, M., Khan, S. A., Rovira-Navarro, M., Dalziel, I., Smalley Jr., R., Kendrick, E., Konfal, S., Ii, D. J. C., Aster, R. C., Nyblade, A., and Wiens, D. A.: Observed rapid bedrock uplift in Amundsen Sea Embayment promotes ice-sheet stability, Science, 360, 1335–1339, 2018. a
Bauch, H. A., Erlenkeuser, H., Helmke, J. P., and Struck, U.: A paleoclimatic
evaluation of marine oxygen isotope stage 11 in the high-northern Atlantic
(Nordic seas), Global Planet. Change, 24, 27–39, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(99)00067-3, 2000. a
Bazin, L., Landais, A., Lemieux-Dudon, B., Toyé Mahamadou Kele, H., Veres, D., Parrenin, F., Martinerie, P., Ritz, C., Capron, E., Lipenkov, V., Loutre, M.-F., Raynaud, D., Vinther, B., Svensson, A., Rasmussen, S. O., Severi, M., Blunier, T., Leuenberger, M., Fischer, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Chappellaz, J., and Wolff, E.: An optimized multi-proxy, multi-site Antarctic ice and gas orbital chronology (AICC2012): 120–800 ka, Clim. Past, 9, 1715–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, 2013. a, b, c
Beckmann, A. and Goosse, H.: A parameterization of ice shelf–ocean interaction for climate models, Ocean Model., 5, 157–170, 2003. a
Berger, A. and Loutre, M.-F.: Climate 400,000 years ago, a key to the future?, Washington DC American Geophysical Union Geophysical Monograph Series 137, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., 17–26, 2003. a
Bernales, J., Rogozhina, I., Greve, R., and Thomas, M.: Comparison of hybrid
schemes for the combination of shallow approximations in numerical simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 11, 247–265,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-247-2017, 2017a. a
Calov, R. and Greve, R.: A semi-analytical solution for the positive degree-day model with stochastic temperature variations, J. Glaciol., 51,
173–175, 2005. a
Capron, E., Rovere, A., Austermann, J., Axford, Y., Barlow, N. L., Carlson,
A. E., de Vernal, A., Dutton, A., Kopp, R. E., McManus, J. F., Menviel, L., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Robinson, A., Shakun, J. D., Tzedakis, P. C., and Wolff, E. W.: Challenges and research priorities to understand interactions between climate, ice sheets and global mean sea level during past interglacials, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 219, 308–311, 2019. a, b
Chen, F., Friedman, S., Gertler, C. G., Looney, J., O'Connell, N., Sierks,
K., and Mitrovica, J. X.: Refining estimates of polar ice volumes during the
MIS11 Interglacial using sea level records from South Africa, J. Climate, 27, 8740–8746, 2014. a
Clark, P. U., Dyke, A. S., Shakun, J. D., Carlson, A. E., Clark, J., Wohlfarth, B., Mitrovica, J. X., Hostetler, S. W., and McCabe, A. M.: The Last Glacial Maximum, Science, 325, 710–714, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172873, 2009. a
Clason, C. C., Applegate, P., and Holmlund, P.: Modelling Late Weichselian
evolution of the Eurasian ice sheets forced by surface meltwater-enhanced basal sliding, J. Glaciol., 60, 29–40, 2014. a
de Boer, B., van de Wal, R. S. W., Lourens, L. J., Bintanja, R., and Reerink,
T. J.: A continuous simulation of global ice volume over the past 1 million
years with 3-D ice-sheet models, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1365–1384,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1562-2, 2013. a
de Boer, B., Dolan, A. M., Bernales, J., Gasson, E., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Sutter, J., Huybrechts, P., Lohmann, G., Rogozhina, I., Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Simulating the Antarctic ice sheet in the late-Pliocene warm period: PLISMIP-ANT, an ice-sheet model intercomparison project, The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015. a
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future
sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597, 2016. a
Doherty, J. M. and Thibodeau, B.: Cold Water in a Warm World: Investigating the Origin of the Nordic Seas' Unique Surface Properties During MIS 11,
Front. Mari. Sci., 5, 251, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00251, 2018. a
Dolan, A. M., De Boer, B., Bernales, J., Hill, D. J., and Haywood, A. M.: High climate model dependency of Pliocene Antarctic ice-sheet predictions,
Nat. Commun., 9, 2799, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05179-4, 2018. a
Favier, L., Jourdain, N. C., Jenkins, A., Merino, N., Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., and Mathiot, P.: Assessment of sub-shelf melting parameterisations using the ocean–ice-sheet coupled model NEMO(v3.6)–Elmer/Ice(v8.3), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2255–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, 2019. a
Fretwell, P., Pritchard, H. D., Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Barrand, N. E., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G., Catania, G., Callens, D., Conway, H., Cook, A. J., Corr, H. F. J., Damaske, D., Damm, V., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fujita, S., Gim, Y., Gogineni, P., Griggs, J. A., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Holmlund, P., Holt, J. W., Jacobel, R. W., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jordan, T., King, E. C., Kohler, J., Krabill, W., Riger-Kusk, M., Langley, K. A., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk, B. P., Matsuoka, K., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nogi, Y., Nost, O. A., Popov, S. V., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J., Ross, N., Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tinto, B. K., Welch, B. C., Wilson, D., Young, D. A., Xiangbin, C., and Zirizzotti, A.: Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013. a, b, c
Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Levermann, A., Donges, J. F., and Winkelmann, R.: The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Nature, 585, 538–544, 2020. a
Gladstone, R. M., Warner, R. C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gagliardini, O., Zwinger, T., and Greve, R.: Marine ice sheet model performance depends on basal sliding physics and sub-shelf melting, The Cryosphere, 11, 319–329,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-319-2017, 2017. a
Greve, R.: Application of a polythermal three-dimensional ice sheet model to
the Greenland ice sheet: response to steady-state and transient climate
scenarios, J. Climate, 10, 901–918, 1997. a
Greve, R.: Ice sheet model SICOPOLIS, available at: http://sicopolis.net/, last access: 4 May 2018. a
Greve, R. and Blatter, H.: Comparison of thermodynamics solvers in the
polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS, Polar Sci., 10, 11–23, 2016. a
Handiani, D., Paul, A., Prange, M., Merkel, U., Dupont, L., and Zhang, X.: Tropical vegetation response to Heinrich Event 1 as simulated with the UVic ESCM and CCSM3, Clim. Past, 9, 1683–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1683-2013, 2013. a
Hearty, P. J., Hollin, J. T., Neumann, A. C., O'Leary, M. J., and McCulloch,
M.: Global sea-level fluctuations during the Last Interglaciation (MIS 5e), Quaternary Sci. Rev., 26, 2090–2112, 2007. a
Hillenbrand, C.-D., Fütterer, D., Grobe, H., and Frederichs, T.: No evidence
for a Pleistocene collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from continental margin sediments recovered in the Amundsen Sea, Geo-Mar. Lett., 22, 51–59, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00367-002-0097-7, 2002. a
Hillenbrand, C.-D., Kuhn, G., and Frederichs, T.: Record of a Mid-Pleistocene
depositional anomaly in West Antarctic continental margin sediments: an
indicator for ice-sheet collapse?, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 28, 1147–1159, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.12.010, 2009. a
Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Wolff, E. W., Lang, N. J., Singarayer, J. S.,
Valdes, P. J., and Stocker, T. F.: Interhemispheric coupling, the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials, Clim. Past, 6, 431–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-431-2010, 2010. a
Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Wolff, E. W., Valdes, P. J., and Singarayer, J. S.: The Mid-Brunhes Event and West Antarctic Ice Sheet stability, J. Quaternary Sci., 26, 474–477, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.1525, 2011. a
Holland, P. R., Jenkins, A., and Holland, D. M.: The response of ice shelf
basal melting to variations in ocean temperature, J. Climate, 21, 2558–2572, 2008. a
Imbrie, J., McIntyre, A., and Mix, A.: Oceanic Response to Orbital Forcing in the Late Quaternary: Observational and Experimental Strategies, in: Climate and Geo-Sciences, edited by: Berger, A., Schneider, S., and Duplessy, J. C., Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 121–164, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-2446-8_7, 1989. a, b, c
Jouzel, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Cattani, O., Dreyfus, G., Falourd, S.,
Hoffmann, G., Minster, B., Nouet, J., Barnola, J.-M., Chappellaz, J., Fischer, H., Gallet, J. C., Johnsen, S., Leuenberger, M., Loulergue, L., Luethi, D., Oerter, H., Parrenin, F., Raisbeck, G., Raynaud, D., Schilt, A., Schwander, J., Selmo, E., Souchez, R., Spahni, R., Stauffer, B., Steffensen, J. P., Stenni, B., Stocker, T. F., Tison, J. L., Werner, M., and Wolff, E. W.: Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years, Science, 317, 793–796, 2007. a, b
Kandiano, E. S., van der Meer, M. T. J., Bauch, H. A., Helmke, J., Damsté, J. S. S., and Schouten, S.: A cold and fresh ocean surface in the Nordic Seas during MIS 11: Significance for the future ocean, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 43, 10929–10937, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070294, 2016. a
Kleinen, T., Hildebrandt, S., Prange, M., Rachmayani, R., Müller, S.,
Bezrukova, E., Brovkin, V., and Tarasov, P. E.: The climate and vegetation of
Marine Isotope Stage 11 – model results and proxy-based reconstructions at
global and regional scale, Quatern. Int., 348, 247–265,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2013.12.028, 2014. a
Konrad, H., Thoma, M., Sasgen, I., Klemann, V., Grosfeld, K., Barbi, D., and
Martinec, Z.: The deformational response of a viscoelastic solid earth model
coupled to a thermomechanical ice sheet model, Surv. Geophys., 35, 1441–1458, 2014. a
Kukla, G.: How long and how stable was the last interglacial?, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 16, 605–612, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(96)00114-X, 1997. a
Loutre, M. and Berger, A.: Marine Isotope Stage 11 as an analogue for the
present interglacial, Global Planet. Change, 36, 209–217,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(02)00186-8, 2003. a
Martin, M. A., Winkelmann, R., Haseloff, M., Albrecht, T., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C., and Levermann, A.: The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) – Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 5, 727–740, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-727-2011, 2011. a
Mas e Braga, M.: martimmas/MIS11c_exps: MIS11c experiments (version 1.0), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4471206, 2020. a
Maule, C. F., Purucker, M. E., Olsen, N., and Mosegaard, K.: Heat Flux
Anomalies in Antarctica Revealed by Satellite Magnetic Data, Science, 309,
464–467, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1106888, 2005. a
Milker, Y., Rachmayani, R., Weinkauf, M. F. G., Prange, M., Raitzsch, M.,
Schulz, M., and Kučera, M.: Global and regional sea surface temperature
trends during Marine Isotope Stage 11, Clim. Past, 9, 2231–2252, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2231-2013, 2013. a, b
Mitrovica, J. X., Gomez, N., and Clark, P. U.: The sea-level fingerprint of
West Antarctic collapse, Science, 323, 753–753, 2009. a
Naish, T., Powell, R., Levy, R., Wilson, G., Scherer, R., Talarico, F.,
Krissek, L., Niessen, F., Pompilio, M., Wilson, T., Carter, L., DeConto, R., Huybers, P., McKay, R., Pollard, D., Ross, J., Winter, D., Barrett, P., Browne, G., Cody, R., Cowan, E., Crampton, J., Dunbar, G., Dunbar, N., Florindo, F., Gebhardt, C., Graham, I., Hannah, M., Hansaraj, D., Harwood, D., Helling, D., Henrys, S., Hinnov, L., Kuhn, G., Kyle, P., Läufer, A., Maffioli, P., Magens, D., Mandernack, K., McIntosh, W., Millan, C., Morin, R., Ohneiser, C., Paulsen, T., Persico, D., Raine, I., Reed, J., Riesselman, C., Sagnotti, L., Schmitt, D., Sjunneskog, C., Strong, P., Taviani, M., Vogel, S., Wilch, T., and Williams, T.: Obliquity-paced Pliocene West Antarctic ice sheet oscillations, Nature, 458, 322–328, 2009. a
Noble, T. L., Rohling, E. J., Aitken, A. R. A., Bostock, H. C., Chase, Z., Gomez, N., Jong, L. M., King, M. A., Mackintosh, A. N., McCormack, F. S., McKay, R. M., Menviel, L., Phipps, S. J., Weber, M. E., Fogwill, C. J., Gayen, B., Golledge, N. R., Gwyther, D. E., McHogg, A. C., Martos, Y. M., Pena-Molino, B., Roberts, J., van de Flierdt, T., and Williams, T.: The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: Past, present and future, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000663, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000663, 2020. a
Parrenin, F., Barnola, J.-M., Beer, J., Blunier, T., Castellano, E., Chappellaz, J., Dreyfus, G., Fischer, H., Fujita, S., Jouzel, J., Kawamura, K., Lemieux-Dudon, B., Loulergue, L., Masson-Delmotte, V., Narcisi, B., Petit, J.-R., Raisbeck, G., Raynaud, D., Ruth, U., Schwander, J., Severi, M., Spahni, R., Steffensen, J. P., Svensson, A., Udisti, R., Waelbroeck, C., and Wolff, E.: The EDC3 chronology for the EPICA Dome C ice core, Clim. Past, 3, 485–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-485-2007, 2007. a, b
Petit, J.-R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N. I., Barnola, J.-M., Basile,
I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M., Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M., Kotlyakov, V. M., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V. Y., Lorius, C., Pépin, L., Ritz, C., Saltzman, E., and Stievenard, M.: Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica, Nature, 399, 429–436, 1999. a, b
Petit, J. R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N. I., Barnola, J. M., Basile, I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, J., Delaygue, G., and Delmotte, M.: Vostok ice core data for 420,000 years, IGBP pages/world data center for paleoclimatology data contribution series #2001–076, NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, NOAA/NGDC, Boulder, CO, USA, 2001. a, b
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R.: Description of a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model, and application to Antarctica, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1273–1295, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1273-2012, 2012a. a, b
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: A simple inverse method for the distribution of basal sliding coefficients under ice sheets, applied to Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 6, 953–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-953-2012, 2012b. a
Rachmayani, R., Prange, M., and Schulz, M.: Intra-interglacial climate
variability: model simulations of Marine Isotope Stages 1, 5, 11, 13, and 15, Clim. Past, 12, 677–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-677-2016, 2016. a
Rachmayani, R., Prange, M., Lunt, D. J., Stone, E. J., and Schulz, M.:
Sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Interglacial Climate Forcing: MIS 5e Versus MIS 11, Paleoceanography, 32, 1089–1101, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017PA003149, 2017. a
Raymo, M. E. and Mitrovica, J. X.: Collapse of polar ice sheets during the
stage 11 interglacial, Nature, 483, 453–456, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10891, 2012. a, b, c
Raynaud, D., Barnola, J.-M., Souchez, R., Lorrain, R., Petit, J.-R., Duval, P., and Lipenkov, V. Y.: The record for Marine Isotopic Stage 11, Nat.
Commun., 436, 39–40, https://doi.org/10.1038/43639b, 2005. a, b
Reese, R., Albrecht, T., Mengel, M., Asay-Davis, X., and Winkelmann, R.:
Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via PICO, The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018. a
Reyes, A. V., Carlson, A. E., Beard, B. L., Hatfield, R. G., Stoner, J. S.,
Winsor, K., Welke, B., and Ullman, D. J.: South Greenland ice-sheet collapse during Marine Isotope Stage 11, Nature, 510, 525–528,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13456, 2014. a
Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., Calov, R., Ganopolski, A., and Montoya, M.:
MIS-11 duration key to disappearance of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Nat. Commun., 8, 16008, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms16008, 2017. a, b, c
Sato, T. and Greve, R.: Sensitivity experiments for the Antarctic Ice Sheet
with varied sub-ice-shelf melting rates, Ann. Glaciol., 53, 221–228, 2012. a
Scherer, R. P.: Quaternary interglacials and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, in: Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 137, edited by: Droxler, A. W., Poore, R. Z., and Burckle, L. H., American Geophysical Union, Washington, D. C., 103–112, https://doi.org/10.1029/137GM08, 2003. a
Scherer, R. P., Aldahan, A., Tulaczyk, S., Possnert, G., Engelhardt, H., and
Kamb, B.: Pleistocene collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Science, 281, 82–85, 1998. a
Shackleton, N. J., Sánchez-Goñi, M. F., Pailler, D., and Lancelot, Y.: Marine isotope substage 5e and the Eemian interglacial, Global Planet. Change, 36, 151–155, 2003. a
Sutter, J., Fischer, H., Grosfeld, K., Karlsson, N. B., Kleiner, T., Van Liefferinge, B., and Eisen, O.: Modelling the Antarctic Ice Sheet across the mid-Pleistocene transition – implications for Oldest Ice, The Cryosphere, 13, 2023–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2023-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d
Swanger, K. M., Lamp, J. L., Winckler, G., Schaefer, J. M., and Marchant, D. R.: Glacier advance during Marine Isotope Stage 11 in the McMurdo dry valleys of Antarctica, Scient. Rep., 7, 41433, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41433, 2017. a, b, c
Tigchelaar, M., Timmermann, A., Pollard, D., Friedrich, T., and Heinemann, M.: Local insolation changes enhance Antarctic interglacials: Insights from
an 800,000-year ice sheet simulation with transient climate forcing, Earth
Planet. Sc. Lett., 495, 69–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2018.05.004, 2018. a
Tigchelaar, M., Timmermann, A., Friedrich, T., Heinemann, M., and Pollard, D.: Nonlinear response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to late Quaternary sea level and climate forcing, The Cryosphere, 13, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2615-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d
Turney, C. S. M., Fogwill, C. J., Golledge, N. R., McKay, N. P., van Sebille, E., Jones, R. T., Etheridge, D., Rubino, M., Thornton, D. P., Davies, S. M.,
Bronk Ramsey, C., Thomas, Z. A., Bird, M. I., Munksgaard, N. C., Kohno, M., Woodward, J., Winter, K., Weyrich, L. S., Rootes, C. M., Millman, H., Albert, P. G., Rivera, A., van Ommen, T., Curran, M., Moy, A., Rahmstorf, S., Kawamura, K., Hillenbrand, C.-D., Weber, M. E., Manning, C. J., Young, J., and Cooper, A.: Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 3996–4006, 2020. a, b
Tzedakis, P. C., Wolff, E. W., Skinner, L. C., Brovkin, V., Hodell, D. A.,
McManus, J. F., and Raynaud, D.: Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?, Clim. Past, 8, 1473–1485, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1473-2012, 2012. a
Uemura, R., Motoyama, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Jouzel, J., Kawamura, K.,
Goto-Azuma, K., Fujita, S., Kuramoto, T., Hirabayashi, M., Miyake, T., Ohno, H., Fujita, K., Abe-Ouchi, A., Iizuka, Y., Horikawa, S., Igarashi, M., Suzuki, K., Suzuki, T., and Fujii, Y,: Asynchrony between Antarctic temperature and CO2 associated with obliquity over the past 720,000 years, Nat. Commun., 9, 961, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03328-3, 2018. a, b, c, d
Waelbroeck, C., Labeyrie, L., Michel, E., Duplessy, J., McManus, J., Lambeck,
K., Balbon, E., and Labracherie, M.: Sea-level and deep water temperature
changes derived from benthic foraminifera isotopic records, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 295–305, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00101-9, 2002. a, b, c
WAIS Divide Project Members: Onset of deglacial warming in West Antarctica driven by local orbital forcing, Nature, 500, 440–444, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12376, 2013. a
Willerslev, E., Cappellini, E., Boomsma, W., Nielsen, R., Hebsgaard, M. B.,
Brand, T. B., Hofreiter, M., Bunce, M., Poinar, H. N., Dahl-Jensen, D., Johnsen, S., Steffensen, J. P., Bennike, O., Schwenninger, J.-L., Nathan, R.,
Armitage, S., de Hoog, C.-J., Alfimov, V., Christl, M., Beer, J., Muscheler,
R., Barker, J., Sharp, M., Penkman, K. E. H., Haile, J., Taberlet, P., Gilbert, M. T. P., Casoli, A., Campani, E., and Collins, M. J.: Ancient
Biomolecules from Deep Ice Cores Reveal a Forested Southern Greenland, Science, 317, 111–114, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1141758, 2007. a
Wilson, D. J., Bertram, R. A., Needham, E. F., van de Flierdt, T., Welsh, K. J., McKay, R. M., Mazumder, A., Riesselman, C. R., Jimenez-Espejo, F. J., and Escutia, C.: Ice loss from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet during late Pleistocene interglacials, Nature, 561, 383–386, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0501-8, 2018. a, b, c
Yang, H. and Zhu, J.: Equilibrium thermal response timescale of global oceans, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14711, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048076, 2011.
a
Zeitz, M., Levermann, A., and Winkelmann, R.: Sensitivity of ice loss to
uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry,
The Cryosphere, 14, 3537–3550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020, 2020. a
Short summary
We combine a computer model with different climate records to simulate how Antarctica responded to warming during marine isotope substage 11c, which can help understand Antarctica's natural drivers of change. We found that the regional climate warming of Antarctica seen in ice cores was necessary for the model to match the recorded sea level rise. A collapse of its western ice sheet is possible if a modest warming is sustained for ca. 4000 years, contributing 6.7 to 8.2 m to sea level rise.
We combine a computer model with different climate records to simulate how Antarctica responded...
