Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Mar 2021
Research article |
| 05 Mar 2021
| 05 Mar 2021
Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet
Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, SPHERES research unit, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Charles Amory
Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, SPHERES research unit, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Cécile Agosta
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Nicolas C. Jourdain
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Stefan Hofer
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Alison Delhasse
Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, SPHERES research unit, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Sébastien Doutreloup
Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, SPHERES research unit, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Pierre-Vincent Huot
Earth and Climate, Earth and Life Institute, Catholic University of Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Charlotte Lang
Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, SPHERES research unit, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Thierry Fichefet
Earth and Climate, Earth and Life Institute, Catholic University of Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Xavier Fettweis
Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, SPHERES research unit, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
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- DeepMelt-GL v1: a neural network emulator of sub-shelf melt rates for the unrepresented regions of ice-shelf cavities in ocean models H. Ockenden et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7979-2026
- Anomalous Meltwater From Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves Is a Historical Forcing G. Schmidt et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106530
- Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica E. Hill et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021
- Decoded Antarctic snow accumulation history reconciles observed and modeled trends in accumulation and large-scale warming patterns D. Schneider et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1395-2026
- Surface Mass Balance Models Vs. Stake Observations: A Comparison in the Lake Vostok Region, Central East Antarctica A. Richter et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.669977
- The AntAWS dataset: a compilation of Antarctic automatic weather station observations Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-411-2023
- Short- to Medium-Term Sea Surface Height Prediction in the Bohai Sea Using an Optimized Simple Recurrent Unit Deep Network P. Ning et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.672280
- GPS‐Observed Elastic Deformation Due to Surface Mass Balance Variability in the Southern Antarctic Peninsula A. Koulali et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097109
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Latest update: 07 Nov 2026
Short summary
The future surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) will influence the ice dynamics and the contribution of the ice sheet to the sea level rise. We investigate the AIS sensitivity to different warmings using physical and statistical downscaling of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Our results highlight a contrasting effect between the grounded ice sheet (where the SMB is projected to increase) and ice shelves (where the future SMB depends on the emission scenario).
The future surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) will influence the ice...
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