Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Sep 2020
Research article |
| 17 Sep 2020
| 17 Sep 2020
The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Anders Levermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
LDEO, Columbia University, New York, USA
Torsten Albrecht
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Hélène Seroussi
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Ricarda Winkelmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
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22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise T. Edwards et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
- The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded R. Reese et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023
- Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector D. Bett et al. 10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024
- An assessment of basal melt parameterisations for Antarctic ice shelves C. Burgard et al. 10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al. 10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
- Coupling framework (1.0) for the PISM (1.1.4) ice sheet model and the MOM5 (5.1.0) ocean model via the PICO ice shelf cavity model in an Antarctic domain M. Kreuzer et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021
- Ocean-induced melt volume directly paces ice loss from Pine Island Glacier I. Joughin et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abi5738
- A Semi-Empirical Framework for ice sheet response analysis under Oceanic forcing in Antarctica and Greenland X. Luo & T. Lin 10.1007/s00382-022-06317-x
- Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica E. Hill et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021
- The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century D. Lowry et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00289-2
- The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple J. Garbe et al. 10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023
- Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) M. Berdahl et al. 10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023
- Heterogeneous Basal Thermal Conditions Underpinning the Adélie‐George V Coast, East Antarctica E. Dawson et al. 10.1029/2023GL105450
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
- The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet C. Wirths et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024
- Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica A. Johnson et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.10
- Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
- Hysteresis of idealized, instability-prone outlet glaciers in response to pinning-point buttressing variation J. Feldmann et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024
- Shear-margin melting causes stronger transient ice discharge than ice-stream melting in idealized simulations J. Feldmann et al. 10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
- Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model V. Coulon et al. 10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
- Sea Level Rise and Portfolio Choice E. Ilhan 10.2139/ssrn.3743046
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise T. Edwards et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
- The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded R. Reese et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023
- Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector D. Bett et al. 10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024
- An assessment of basal melt parameterisations for Antarctic ice shelves C. Burgard et al. 10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al. 10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
- Coupling framework (1.0) for the PISM (1.1.4) ice sheet model and the MOM5 (5.1.0) ocean model via the PICO ice shelf cavity model in an Antarctic domain M. Kreuzer et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021
- Ocean-induced melt volume directly paces ice loss from Pine Island Glacier I. Joughin et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abi5738
- A Semi-Empirical Framework for ice sheet response analysis under Oceanic forcing in Antarctica and Greenland X. Luo & T. Lin 10.1007/s00382-022-06317-x
- Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica E. Hill et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021
- The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century D. Lowry et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00289-2
- The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple J. Garbe et al. 10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023
- Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) M. Berdahl et al. 10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023
- Heterogeneous Basal Thermal Conditions Underpinning the Adélie‐George V Coast, East Antarctica E. Dawson et al. 10.1029/2023GL105450
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
- The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet C. Wirths et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024
- Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica A. Johnson et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.10
- Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
- Hysteresis of idealized, instability-prone outlet glaciers in response to pinning-point buttressing variation J. Feldmann et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024
- Shear-margin melting causes stronger transient ice discharge than ice-stream melting in idealized simulations J. Feldmann et al. 10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
- Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model V. Coulon et al. 10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 27 May 2025
Short summary
We compare 21st century projections of Antarctica's future sea-level contribution simulated with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model submitted to ISMIP6 with projections following the LARMIP-2 protocol based on the same model configuration. We find that (1) a preceding historic simulation increases mass loss by 5–50 % and that (2) the order of magnitude difference in the ice loss in our experiments following the two protocols can be explained by the translation of ocean forcing to sub-shelf melting.
We compare 21st century projections of Antarctica's future sea-level contribution simulated with...
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