Articles | Volume 14, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2159-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2159-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Jul 2020
Research article |
| 02 Jul 2020
| 02 Jul 2020
Modeling the annual cycle of daily Antarctic sea ice extent
Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles, USA
Marilyn N. Raphael
Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, USA
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Cited
23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice in recent years hints at future change C. Eayrs et al. 10.1038/s41561-021-00768-3
- Eighteen-year record of circum-Antarctic landfast-sea-ice distribution allows detailed baseline characterisation and reveals trends and variability A. Fraser et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5061-2021
- Antarctic sea ice regime shift associated with decreasing zonal symmetry in the Southern Annular Mode S. Schroeter et al. 10.5194/tc-17-701-2023
- A regime shift in seasonal total Antarctic sea ice extent in the twentieth century R. Fogt et al. 10.1038/s41558-021-01254-9
- A new record minimum for Antarctic sea ice M. Raphael & M. Handcock 10.1038/s43017-022-00281-0
- Intraseasonal Sea Ice Concentration Variability Over the Weddell Sea During Austral Autumn L. Song et al. 10.1029/2022GL102691
- Subseasonal Prediction of Regional Antarctic Sea Ice by a Deep Learning Model Y. Wang et al. 10.1029/2023GL104347
- Modulation of the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice extent by sea ice processes and feedbacks with the ocean and the atmosphere H. Goosse et al. 10.5194/tc-17-407-2023
- Probabilistic Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness P. Gao et al. 10.1007/s13253-021-00480-0
- A twenty-first century structural change in Antarctica’s sea ice system M. Raphael et al. 10.1038/s43247-025-02107-5
- Historical and Future Projected Warming of Antarctic Shelf Bottom Water in CMIP6 Models A. Purich & M. England 10.1029/2021GL092752
- An Intercomparison of Antarctic NWP during the Austral Summer Special Observing Period for the Year of Polar Prediction B. Schroeter et al. 10.1175/WAF-D-21-0088.1
- Ocean‐Sea Ice Processes and Their Role in Multi‐Month Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice S. Libera et al. 10.1029/2021GL097047
- The relative role of the subsurface Southern Ocean in driving negative Antarctic Sea ice extent anomalies in 2016–2021 L. Zhang et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00624-1
- Antarctic sea-ice expansion and Southern Ocean cooling linked to tropical variability E. Chung et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01339-z
- Trends and variability in polar sea ice, global atmospheric circulations, and baroclinicity I. Simmonds & M. Li 10.1111/nyas.14673
- Interannual SAM Modulation of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Does Not Account for Its Long‐Term Trends, Pointing to a Limited Role for Ozone Depletion L. Polvani et al. 10.1029/2021GL094871
- An Assessment of the Temporal Variability in the Annual Cycle of Daily Antarctic Sea Ice in the NCAR Community Earth System Model, Version 2: A Comparison of the Historical Runs With Observations M. Raphael et al. 10.1029/2020JC016459
- Understanding seasonal cycle of daily extreme temperatures based on generalized additive model for location, scale and shape with smoothing spline K. Tu et al. 10.1002/joc.8430
- Winter distribution of juvenile and sub-adult male Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) along the western Antarctic Peninsula D. March et al. 10.1038/s41598-021-01700-w
- Cyclostationary EOF Modes of Antarctic Sea Ice and Their Application in Prediction Y. Pei 10.1029/2021JC017179
- Synergistic atmosphere-ocean-ice influences have driven the 2023 all-time Antarctic sea-ice record low J. Wang et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01523-3
- Impacts of Sea Ice Mushy Thermodynamics in the Antarctic on the Coupled Earth System A. DuVivier et al. 10.1029/2021GL094287
23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice in recent years hints at future change C. Eayrs et al. 10.1038/s41561-021-00768-3
- Eighteen-year record of circum-Antarctic landfast-sea-ice distribution allows detailed baseline characterisation and reveals trends and variability A. Fraser et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5061-2021
- Antarctic sea ice regime shift associated with decreasing zonal symmetry in the Southern Annular Mode S. Schroeter et al. 10.5194/tc-17-701-2023
- A regime shift in seasonal total Antarctic sea ice extent in the twentieth century R. Fogt et al. 10.1038/s41558-021-01254-9
- A new record minimum for Antarctic sea ice M. Raphael & M. Handcock 10.1038/s43017-022-00281-0
- Intraseasonal Sea Ice Concentration Variability Over the Weddell Sea During Austral Autumn L. Song et al. 10.1029/2022GL102691
- Subseasonal Prediction of Regional Antarctic Sea Ice by a Deep Learning Model Y. Wang et al. 10.1029/2023GL104347
- Modulation of the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice extent by sea ice processes and feedbacks with the ocean and the atmosphere H. Goosse et al. 10.5194/tc-17-407-2023
- Probabilistic Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness P. Gao et al. 10.1007/s13253-021-00480-0
- A twenty-first century structural change in Antarctica’s sea ice system M. Raphael et al. 10.1038/s43247-025-02107-5
- Historical and Future Projected Warming of Antarctic Shelf Bottom Water in CMIP6 Models A. Purich & M. England 10.1029/2021GL092752
- An Intercomparison of Antarctic NWP during the Austral Summer Special Observing Period for the Year of Polar Prediction B. Schroeter et al. 10.1175/WAF-D-21-0088.1
- Ocean‐Sea Ice Processes and Their Role in Multi‐Month Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice S. Libera et al. 10.1029/2021GL097047
- The relative role of the subsurface Southern Ocean in driving negative Antarctic Sea ice extent anomalies in 2016–2021 L. Zhang et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00624-1
- Antarctic sea-ice expansion and Southern Ocean cooling linked to tropical variability E. Chung et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01339-z
- Trends and variability in polar sea ice, global atmospheric circulations, and baroclinicity I. Simmonds & M. Li 10.1111/nyas.14673
- Interannual SAM Modulation of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Does Not Account for Its Long‐Term Trends, Pointing to a Limited Role for Ozone Depletion L. Polvani et al. 10.1029/2021GL094871
- An Assessment of the Temporal Variability in the Annual Cycle of Daily Antarctic Sea Ice in the NCAR Community Earth System Model, Version 2: A Comparison of the Historical Runs With Observations M. Raphael et al. 10.1029/2020JC016459
- Understanding seasonal cycle of daily extreme temperatures based on generalized additive model for location, scale and shape with smoothing spline K. Tu et al. 10.1002/joc.8430
- Winter distribution of juvenile and sub-adult male Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) along the western Antarctic Peninsula D. March et al. 10.1038/s41598-021-01700-w
- Cyclostationary EOF Modes of Antarctic Sea Ice and Their Application in Prediction Y. Pei 10.1029/2021JC017179
- Synergistic atmosphere-ocean-ice influences have driven the 2023 all-time Antarctic sea-ice record low J. Wang et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01523-3
- Impacts of Sea Ice Mushy Thermodynamics in the Antarctic on the Coupled Earth System A. DuVivier et al. 10.1029/2021GL094287
Latest update: 17 Sep 2025
Short summary
Traditional methods of calculating the annual cycle of sea ice extent disguise the variation of amplitude and timing (phase) of the advance and retreat of the ice. We present a multiscale model that explicitly allows them to vary, resulting in a much improved representation of the cycle. We show that phase is the dominant contributor to the variability in the cycle and that the anomalous decay of Antarctic sea ice in 2016 was due largely to a change of phase.
Traditional methods of calculating the annual cycle of sea ice extent disguise the variation of...
