Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Mar 2019
Research article |
| 01 Mar 2019
| 01 Mar 2019
Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge
Mathieu Morlighem
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, 3218 Croul Hall, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA
Invited contribution by Mathieu Morlighem, recipient of the EGU Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Early Career Scientists 2018.
Michael Wood
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, 3218 Croul Hall, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA
Hélène Seroussi
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099, USA
Youngmin Choi
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, 3218 Croul Hall, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA
Eric Rignot
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, 3218 Croul Hall, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099, USA
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47 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat T. Hillebrand et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022
- Retreat of Humboldt Gletscher, North Greenland, Driven by Undercutting From a Warmer Ocean E. Rignot et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091342
- SERMeQ Model Produces a Realistic Upper Bound on Calving Retreat for 155 Greenland Outlet Glaciers L. Ultee & J. Bassis https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090213
- Projecting the response of Greenland's peripheral glaciers to future climate change: glacier losses, sea level impact, freshwater contributions, and peak water timing M. Shafeeque et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-875-2026
- Inferring subglacial topography using physics informed machine learning constrained by two conservation laws M. Krishna et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3533-2026
- Ocean melting of the Zachariae Isstrøm and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glaciers, northeast Greenland L. An et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015483118
- Calving Multiplier Effect Controlled by Melt Undercut Geometry D. Slater et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006191
- Holocene warmth explains the Little Ice Age advance of Sermeq Kujalleq K. Kajanto et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2024.108840
- The role of near-terminus conditions in the ice-flow speed of Upernavik Isstrøm in northwest Greenland K. Voss et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.76
- A classroom activity on global glacier mass balance and glacier climate feedback M. Salgueiro da Silva et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6552/ae7007
- Ice dynamics will remain a primary driver of Greenland ice sheet mass loss over the next century Y. Choi et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00092-z
- Multi-decadal retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers in northwest and central-west Greenland T. Black & I. Joughin https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-807-2022
- Helheim Glacier ice velocity variability responds to runoff and terminus position change at different timescales L. Ultee et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33292-y
- Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023 T. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-55948-1
- The Greenland Ice Sheet Large Ensemble (GrISLENS): simulating the future of Greenland under climate variability V. Verjans et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025
- Uncovering Basal Friction in Northwest Greenland Using an Ice Flow Model and Observations of the Past Decade Y. Choi et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JF006710
- Ubiquitous acceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet calving from 1985 to 2022 C. Greene et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06863-2
- Evaluation of Iceberg Calving Models Against Observations From Greenland Outlet Glaciers T. Amaral et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005444
- Extracting Glacier Calving Fronts by Deep Learning: The Benefit of Multispectral, Topographic, and Textural Input Features E. Loebel et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2022.3208454
- Modeling the 21st-century response of Greenland's Zachariæ Isstrøm and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glaciers to atmosphere–ocean forcing and friction laws Y. Dong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.006
- Impact of Iceberg Calving on the Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica Over the Next Century With Different Calving Laws and Ocean Thermal Forcing H. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084066
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- Subglacial‐Discharge Plumes Drive Widespread Subsurface Warming in Northwest Greenland's Fjords T. Cowton et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103801
- Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting D. Slater et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019
- Ocean forcing drives glacier retreat in Greenland M. Wood et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba7282
- Observed mechanism for sustained glacier retreat and acceleration in response to ocean warming around Greenland E. Carnahan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022
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- Impact of Subglacial Freshwater Discharge on Pine Island Ice Shelf Y. Nakayama et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093923
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- Increased sea-level contribution from northwestern Greenland for models that reproduce observations J. Badgeley et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2411904122
47 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Local forcing mechanisms challenge parameterizations of ocean thermal forcing for Greenland tidewater glaciers A. Hager et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-911-2024
- Development and Benchmarking of the Shallow Shelf Approximation Ice Sheet Dynamics Module Y. Baek et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12601-023-00120-3
- Rapid retreat of a Scandinavian marine outlet glacier in response to warming at the last glacial termination H. Åkesson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106645
- The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat T. Hillebrand et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022
- Retreat of Humboldt Gletscher, North Greenland, Driven by Undercutting From a Warmer Ocean E. Rignot et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091342
- SERMeQ Model Produces a Realistic Upper Bound on Calving Retreat for 155 Greenland Outlet Glaciers L. Ultee & J. Bassis https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090213
- Projecting the response of Greenland's peripheral glaciers to future climate change: glacier losses, sea level impact, freshwater contributions, and peak water timing M. Shafeeque et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-875-2026
- Inferring subglacial topography using physics informed machine learning constrained by two conservation laws M. Krishna et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3533-2026
- Ocean melting of the Zachariae Isstrøm and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glaciers, northeast Greenland L. An et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015483118
- Calving Multiplier Effect Controlled by Melt Undercut Geometry D. Slater et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006191
- Holocene warmth explains the Little Ice Age advance of Sermeq Kujalleq K. Kajanto et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2024.108840
- The role of near-terminus conditions in the ice-flow speed of Upernavik Isstrøm in northwest Greenland K. Voss et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.76
- A classroom activity on global glacier mass balance and glacier climate feedback M. Salgueiro da Silva et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6552/ae7007
- Ice dynamics will remain a primary driver of Greenland ice sheet mass loss over the next century Y. Choi et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00092-z
- Multi-decadal retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers in northwest and central-west Greenland T. Black & I. Joughin https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-807-2022
- Helheim Glacier ice velocity variability responds to runoff and terminus position change at different timescales L. Ultee et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33292-y
- Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023 T. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-55948-1
- The Greenland Ice Sheet Large Ensemble (GrISLENS): simulating the future of Greenland under climate variability V. Verjans et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025
- Uncovering Basal Friction in Northwest Greenland Using an Ice Flow Model and Observations of the Past Decade Y. Choi et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JF006710
- Ubiquitous acceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet calving from 1985 to 2022 C. Greene et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06863-2
- Evaluation of Iceberg Calving Models Against Observations From Greenland Outlet Glaciers T. Amaral et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005444
- Extracting Glacier Calving Fronts by Deep Learning: The Benefit of Multispectral, Topographic, and Textural Input Features E. Loebel et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2022.3208454
- Modeling the 21st-century response of Greenland's Zachariæ Isstrøm and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glaciers to atmosphere–ocean forcing and friction laws Y. Dong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.006
- Impact of Iceberg Calving on the Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica Over the Next Century With Different Calving Laws and Ocean Thermal Forcing H. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084066
- ALBATROSS: Advancing Southern Ocean tide modelling with high resolution and enhanced bathymetry E. Le Merle et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2024.101124
- Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed IPCC projections for strong-warming futures M. Siegert et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.11.002
- Unravelling the long-term, locally heterogenous response of Greenland glaciers observed in archival photography M. Cooper et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2449-2022
- Bathymetry Beneath the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, Revealed by Airborne Gravity J. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096215
- The impact of ice structures and ocean warming in Milne Fiord J. Bonneau et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2615-2025
- Sub-grid parameterization of iceberg drag in a coupled iceberg–ocean model P. Summers et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5135-2025
- Subglacial‐Discharge Plumes Drive Widespread Subsurface Warming in Northwest Greenland's Fjords T. Cowton et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103801
- Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting D. Slater et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019
- Ocean forcing drives glacier retreat in Greenland M. Wood et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba7282
- Observed mechanism for sustained glacier retreat and acceleration in response to ocean warming around Greenland E. Carnahan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022
- Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution D. Slater et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020
- Meltwater‐Enhanced Nutrient Export From Greenland's Glacial Fjords: A Sensitivity Analysis H. Oliver et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016185
- ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century H. Seroussi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
- Calving front monitoring at a subseasonal resolution: a deep learning application for Greenland glaciers E. Loebel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3315-2024
- Geometric controls of tidewater glacier dynamics T. Frank et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-581-2022
- The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 H. Goelzer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
- Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models S. Nowicki et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020
- Impact of time-dependent data assimilation on ice flow model initialization and projections: a case study of Kjer Glacier, Greenland Y. Choi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023
- Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers S. Khan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5
- Impact of Subglacial Freshwater Discharge on Pine Island Ice Shelf Y. Nakayama et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093923
- Outlet glacier seasonal terminus prediction using interpretable machine learning K. Shionalyn et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1725-2026
- Submarine melting of glaciers in Greenland amplified by atmospheric warming D. Slater & F. Straneo https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01035-9
- Increased sea-level contribution from northwestern Greenland for models that reproduce observations J. Badgeley et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2411904122
Saved (final revised paper)
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Latest update: 08 Nov 2026
Short summary
Many glaciers along the coast of Greenland have been retreating. It has been suggested that this retreat is triggered by the presence of warm water in the fjords, and surface melt at the top of the ice sheet is exacerbating this problem. Here, we quantify the vulnerability of northwestern Greenland to further warming using a numerical model. We find that in current conditions, this sector alone will contribute more than 1 cm to sea rise level by 2100, and up to 3 cm in the most extreme scenario.
Many glaciers along the coast of Greenland have been retreating. It has been suggested that this...
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