Articles | Volume 12, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Oct 2018
Research article |
| 30 Oct 2018
| 30 Oct 2018
Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness
Edward W. Blockley
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
K. Andrew Peterson
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
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- Subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of arctic sea ice Using a Fully Coupled dynamical ensemble forecast system A. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107014
- Toward improved sea ice freeboard observation with SAR altimetry using the physical retracker SAMOSA+ A. Laforge et al. 10.1016/j.asr.2020.02.001
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- A Spring Barrier for Regional Predictions of Summer Arctic Sea Ice D. Bonan et al. 10.1029/2019GL082947
- Should Sea-Ice Modeling Tools Designed for Climate Research Be Used for Short-Term Forecasting? E. Hunke et al. 10.1007/s40641-020-00162-y
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- Assimilation of sea ice thickness derived from CryoSat-2 along-track freeboard measurements into the Met Office's Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) E. Fiedler et al. 10.5194/tc-16-61-2022
- Bivariate sea-ice assimilation for global-ocean analysis–reanalysis A. Cipollone et al. 10.5194/os-19-1375-2023
- Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 T. Tian et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021
- Toward a Data Assimilation System for Seamless Sea Ice Prediction Based on the AWI Climate Model L. Mu et al. 10.1029/2019MS001937
- Towards reliable Arctic sea ice prediction using multivariate data assimilation J. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.scib.2018.11.018
- Evaluating Benefits of Two-Way Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling for Global NWP Forecasts M. Vellinga et al. 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0035.1
- Year-round impact of winter sea ice thickness observations on seasonal forecasts B. Balan-Sarojini et al. 10.5194/tc-15-325-2021
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- Satellite-Based Data Assimilation System for the Initialization of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration and Thickness Using CICE5 J. Lee & Y. Ham 10.3389/fclim.2022.797733
- Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions J. Acosta Navarro et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b
- Winter Coastal Divergence as a Predictor for the Minimum Sea Ice Extent in the Laptev Sea C. Brunette et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0169.1
- Assessment of contemporary satellite sea ice thickness products for Arctic sea ice H. Sallila et al. 10.5194/tc-13-1187-2019
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- Analyzing the impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization on seasonal Arctic Sea Ice prediction R. Allard et al. 10.1017/aog.2020.15
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- A Bayesian approach towards daily pan-Arctic sea ice freeboard estimates from combined CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 satellite observations W. Gregory et al. 10.5194/tc-15-2857-2021
- Variability scaling and consistency in airborne and satellite altimetry measurements of Arctic sea ice S. Xu et al. 10.5194/tc-14-751-2020
- Improved Arctic Sea Ice Freeboard Retrieval From Satellite Altimetry Using Optimized Sea Surface Decorrelation Scales J. Landy et al. 10.1029/2021JC017466
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- Brief communication: Conventional assumptions involving the speed of radar waves in snow introduce systematic underestimates to sea ice thickness and seasonal growth rate estimates R. Mallett et al. 10.5194/tc-14-251-2020
- Understanding the Forecast Skill of Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Subseasonal Time Scales M. McGraw et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0301.1
- Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice Edge on Subseasonal Time Scales L. Zampieri et al. 10.1029/2019GL084096
- Polar Ocean Observations: A Critical Gap in the Observing System and Its Effect on Environmental Predictions From Hours to a Season G. Smith et al. 10.3389/fmars.2019.00429
- Arctic supply chain reliability in Baffin Bay and Greenland J. Taarup-Esbensen & O. Gudmestad 10.1080/1088937X.2022.2032447
- Arctic sea ice concentration and thickness data assimilation in the FIO-ESM climate forecast system Q. Shu et al. 10.1007/s13131-021-1768-4
- Impact of satellite thickness data assimilation on bias reduction in Arctic sea ice concentration J. Lee & Y. Ham 10.1038/s41612-023-00402-6
- Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts L. Batté et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8
- Arctic‐Wide Sea Ice Thickness Estimates From Combining Satellite Remote Sensing Data and a Dynamic Ice‐Ocean Model with Data Assimilation During the CryoSat‐2 Period L. Mu et al. 10.1029/2018JC014316
61 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The effects of assimilating a sub-grid-scale sea ice thickness distribution in a new Arctic sea ice data assimilation system N. Williams et al. 10.5194/tc-17-2509-2023
- Summertime sea-ice prediction in the Weddell Sea improved by sea-ice thickness initialization Y. Morioka et al. 10.1038/s41598-021-91042-4
- Subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of arctic sea ice Using a Fully Coupled dynamical ensemble forecast system A. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107014
- Toward improved sea ice freeboard observation with SAR altimetry using the physical retracker SAMOSA+ A. Laforge et al. 10.1016/j.asr.2020.02.001
- Strain response and energy dissipation of floating saline ice under cyclic compressive stress M. Wei et al. 10.5194/tc-14-2849-2020
- The SARAL/AltiKa mission: A step forward to the future of altimetry J. Verron et al. 10.1016/j.asr.2020.01.030
- An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth R. Cruz-García et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4
- A Spring Barrier for Regional Predictions of Summer Arctic Sea Ice D. Bonan et al. 10.1029/2019GL082947
- Should Sea-Ice Modeling Tools Designed for Climate Research Be Used for Short-Term Forecasting? E. Hunke et al. 10.1007/s40641-020-00162-y
- Assimilation of SMOS sea ice thickness in the regional ice prediction system M. Gupta et al. 10.1080/01431161.2021.1897183
- Assimilation of sea ice thickness derived from CryoSat-2 along-track freeboard measurements into the Met Office's Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) E. Fiedler et al. 10.5194/tc-16-61-2022
- Bivariate sea-ice assimilation for global-ocean analysis–reanalysis A. Cipollone et al. 10.5194/os-19-1375-2023
- Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 T. Tian et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021
- Toward a Data Assimilation System for Seamless Sea Ice Prediction Based on the AWI Climate Model L. Mu et al. 10.1029/2019MS001937
- Towards reliable Arctic sea ice prediction using multivariate data assimilation J. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.scib.2018.11.018
- Evaluating Benefits of Two-Way Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling for Global NWP Forecasts M. Vellinga et al. 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0035.1
- Year-round impact of winter sea ice thickness observations on seasonal forecasts B. Balan-Sarojini et al. 10.5194/tc-15-325-2021
- Sea Ice Remote Sensing—Recent Developments in Methods and Climate Data Sets S. Sandven et al. 10.1007/s10712-023-09781-0
- Satellite-Based Data Assimilation System for the Initialization of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration and Thickness Using CICE5 J. Lee & Y. Ham 10.3389/fclim.2022.797733
- Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions J. Acosta Navarro et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b
- Winter Coastal Divergence as a Predictor for the Minimum Sea Ice Extent in the Laptev Sea C. Brunette et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0169.1
- Assessment of contemporary satellite sea ice thickness products for Arctic sea ice H. Sallila et al. 10.5194/tc-13-1187-2019
- Improving Arctic Sea-Ice Thickness Estimates with the Assimilation of CryoSat-2 Summer Observations C. Min et al. 10.34133/olar.0025
- Seasonal to decadal predictions of regional Arctic sea ice by assimilating sea surface temperature in the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model P. Dai et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05196-4
- Analyzing the impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization on seasonal Arctic Sea Ice prediction R. Allard et al. 10.1017/aog.2020.15
- Reassessing seasonal sea ice predictability of the Pacific-Arctic sector using a Markov model Y. Wang et al. 10.5194/tc-16-1141-2022
- A Bayesian approach towards daily pan-Arctic sea ice freeboard estimates from combined CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 satellite observations W. Gregory et al. 10.5194/tc-15-2857-2021
- Variability scaling and consistency in airborne and satellite altimetry measurements of Arctic sea ice S. Xu et al. 10.5194/tc-14-751-2020
- Improved Arctic Sea Ice Freeboard Retrieval From Satellite Altimetry Using Optimized Sea Surface Decorrelation Scales J. Landy et al. 10.1029/2021JC017466
- New insight from CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness for sea ice modelling D. Schröder et al. 10.5194/tc-13-125-2019
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- Sea‐Ice Forecasts With an Upgraded AWI Coupled Prediction System L. Mu et al. 10.1029/2022MS003176
- From Observation to Information and Users: The Copernicus Marine Service Perspective P. Le Traon et al. 10.3389/fmars.2019.00234
- Space‐Based Observations for Understanding Changes in the Arctic‐Boreal Zone B. Duncan et al. 10.1029/2019RG000652
- Comparing elevation and backscatter retrievals from CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 over Arctic summer sea ice G. Dawson & J. Landy 10.5194/tc-17-4165-2023
- Ocean Observations to Improve Our Understanding, Modeling, and Forecasting of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Variability A. Subramanian et al. 10.3389/fmars.2019.00427
- Prediction of Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Using Attention-Based LSTM Neural Networks J. Wei et al. 10.3389/fmars.2022.860403
- Improving Arctic sea ice seasonal outlook by ensemble prediction using an ice-ocean model Q. Yang et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.04.021
- Seasonal Predictions of Regional and Pan-Antarctic Sea Ice With a Dynamical Forecast System R. Payne et al. 10.1080/07055900.2023.2252387
- The Copernicus Polar Ice and Snow Topography Altimeter (CRISTAL) high-priority candidate mission M. Kern et al. 10.5194/tc-14-2235-2020
- Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Prediction Using a Newly Developed Fully Coupled Regional Model With the Assimilation of Satellite Sea Ice Observations C. Yang et al. 10.1029/2019MS001938
- Respective influences of perturbed atmospheric and ocean–sea ice initial conditions on the skill of seasonal Antarctic sea ice predictions: A study with NEMO3.6–LIM3 S. Marchi et al. 10.1016/j.ocemod.2020.101591
- Advances in Seasonal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With NOAA UFS J. Zhu et al. 10.1029/2022GL102392
- A Mechanism for the Arctic Sea Ice Spring Predictability Barrier M. Bushuk et al. 10.1029/2020GL088335
- How to get your message across: designing an impactful knowledge transfer plan in a European project S. Pasqualetto et al. 10.5194/gc-5-87-2022
- Impact of assimilating sea ice concentration, sea ice thickness and snow depth in a coupled ocean–sea ice modelling system S. Fritzner et al. 10.5194/tc-13-491-2019
- Impact of sea-ice thickness initialized in April on Arctic sea-ice extent predictability with the MIROC climate model J. Ono et al. 10.1017/aog.2020.13
- Faster decline and higher variability in the sea ice thickness of the marginal Arctic seas when accounting for dynamic snow cover R. Mallett et al. 10.5194/tc-15-2429-2021
- A 10-year record of Arctic summer sea ice freeboard from CryoSat-2 G. Dawson et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2021.112744
- Network connectivity between the winter Arctic Oscillation and summer sea ice in CMIP6 models and observations W. Gregory et al. 10.5194/tc-16-1653-2022
- Alleviation of an Arctic Sea Ice Bias in a Coupled Model Through Modifications in the Subgrid‐Scale Orographic Parameterization G. Gastineau et al. 10.1029/2020MS002111
- Intercomparison of Arctic sea ice simulation in ROMS-CICE and ROMS-Budgell R. Kumar et al. 10.1016/j.polar.2021.100716
- Arctic Ice Ocean Prediction System: evaluating sea-ice forecasts duringXuelong's first trans-Arctic Passage in summer 2017 L. Mu et al. 10.1017/jog.2019.55
- Brief communication: Conventional assumptions involving the speed of radar waves in snow introduce systematic underestimates to sea ice thickness and seasonal growth rate estimates R. Mallett et al. 10.5194/tc-14-251-2020
- Understanding the Forecast Skill of Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Subseasonal Time Scales M. McGraw et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0301.1
- Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice Edge on Subseasonal Time Scales L. Zampieri et al. 10.1029/2019GL084096
- Polar Ocean Observations: A Critical Gap in the Observing System and Its Effect on Environmental Predictions From Hours to a Season G. Smith et al. 10.3389/fmars.2019.00429
- Arctic supply chain reliability in Baffin Bay and Greenland J. Taarup-Esbensen & O. Gudmestad 10.1080/1088937X.2022.2032447
- Arctic sea ice concentration and thickness data assimilation in the FIO-ESM climate forecast system Q. Shu et al. 10.1007/s13131-021-1768-4
- Impact of satellite thickness data assimilation on bias reduction in Arctic sea ice concentration J. Lee & Y. Ham 10.1038/s41612-023-00402-6
- Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts L. Batté et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8
Latest update: 09 Dec 2023
Short summary
Arctic sea-ice prediction on seasonal time scales is becoming increasingly more relevant to society but the predictive capability of forecasting systems is low. Several studies suggest initialization of sea-ice thickness (SIT) could improve the skill of seasonal prediction systems. Here for the first time we test the impact of SIT initialization in the Met Office's GloSea coupled prediction system using CryoSat-2 data. We show significant improvements to Arctic extent and ice edge location.
Arctic sea-ice prediction on seasonal time scales is becoming increasingly more relevant to...
